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Took all my money and profits in GILD off the table today. I'll look to re-enter because I love the company long term, but for now the macro picture is pulling it down and I don't like the chart.
Needs to move to the other side of the 50MA.
Looks like it...Hopefully, the broader market doesn't take it under the 50MA.
I don't think you'll see your entry at this point. The opportunity was last week.
What's strange about it? Forming a new base. Slowly filling the gap. The 50MA probably forms the near-term ceiling.
No, earlier this AM.
Story on CNN Money:
http://money.cnn.com/2015/07/29/technology/intel-3d-xpoint-chip/index.html?iid=hp-grid-dom
Intel and Micron say they have a new computer chip that will make your gadgets significantly faster, more durable and able to store way more data.
If the claims hold up, the new chip could serve as a momentous achievement for the computing industry, ushering in a wave of new devices.
The new technology, called 3D XPoint, was developed by combining a computer's memory (RAM) and data storage (hard drive or Flash drive) into a single chip.
By putting those two elements so close together, Intel (INTC, Tech30) and Micron (MU) say gadgets running 3D XPoint will be 1,000 times faster and durable. They'll also be able to hold up to 10 times more data than those devices using current flash memory drives -- and they'll take up the same amount of space.
The new chip is so fast, that if you could drive at its read-write speeds, you could condense an hour-long commute into less than four seconds, the companies claim. And since the memory chips are 1,000 times more durable, gadgets' lifecycles will also be much longer.
All of that's possible because the new chip has a cubical grid structure that doesn't use transistors.
Today's memory chips use transistors in each cell to write and access information. The 3D XPoint structure eliminates transistors, because it can send different voltages through each wire to communicate with each memory cell.
"For decades, the industry has searched for ways to reduce the lag time between the processor and data to allow much faster analysis," Intel Senior Vice President Rob Crooke said in a statement. "[3D XPoint] achieves this goal and brings game-changing performance to memory and storage solutions."
Beat! 8.24B vs 7.61B /3.15EPS vs 2.71EPS
Raised guidance AGAIN for the year too.
shorting seems stupid at this point. it's obviously going to keep going up into the first dividend payment. if you want to bet against it, you're in too early.
No, I was referring to convertible bond arbitrage.
Golden Cross on 50SMA and 200SMA has occurred now.
Why would it suggest that? Over the last couple of months, the short interest has continued to rise as has the price. As I see it, there's only one explanation for this occurrence...
Short Interest continues to rise -- pretty amazing. Nearly 50M shares shorted now -- 49,812,523 thru 1/31.
DNDN over $7 now :)
I am banking on seeing higher gains. But, as I always do, I'd look at ladder buying -- whether you end up getting lower or higher prices at least you're managing risk.
Near-term (next couple quarters), the only two items that would really derail the stock would be not receiving approval in Europe and not continuing to gradually increase sales quarter over quarter. Analysts seem to think Europe is a done deal and that sales will continue to increase, but there's always the risk that they don't. If one of these two things were to occur, the price would take a significant hit.
At the same time, approval in Europe and gradually increasing sales could both be significant catalysts. Demonstrating that COGS are being reduced would also boost the price. Any positive indication on these items could squeeze shorts given the huge short interest in the stock too. And of course, being acquired is always a beneficial possibility.
So, personally, I think the rewards justify the risk now.
In the last month or so, analysts have given price targets at $6, $7, $10, and $18. I ladder bought in the $4s and am looking for a sizable gain. Saw a bottom forming and momentum starting to swing the other way and it seems to be picking up steam. Lots of potential good news on the horizon too.
BlackRock takes 5.67% passive stake in DNDN
http://investor.dendreon.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1086364-13-1801&CIK=1107332
Robert W. Baird reiterated their neutral rating on shares of Dendreon (NASDAQ: DNDN) in a research note issued to investors on Thursday. The firm currently has a $6.00 target price on the stock.
Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target on Dendreon (NASDAQ: DNDN) from $6 to $7 Wednesday, but maintained a Hold rating, ahead of Q4 results due on Monday, February 25, 2012.
The firm updated the financial model to reflect roughly $4 million upside (excluding reversal of chargebacks) versus revenue forecast. They now expect 4Q:13 EPS non-GAAP ex- SOE of ($0.26) versus ($0.51) on sales of $81.6 million versus its prior forecast of $77.2 million.
"We have been of the opinion that expectations for Provenge are likely too low overall and that Provenge will find a place in the treatment of CRPC above the current trend. However, it has also been our assertion that this could take a bit some time to play out given near-term competition," the analyst said. "We continue to believe this, but the further out in 2013 we get, the more likely we are to see a more compelling trend, in our view."
For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Dendreon click here. For more ratings news on Dendreon click here.
Shares of Dendreon closed at $6.23 yesterday, with a 52 week range of $3.69-$17.04.
Haven't seen that confirmed anywhere else. What's your source? Thanks.
closed up 21% just below 200SMA on 31M+ shares (6x avg). chart is definitely trending bullish with lots of positive news items on the horizon.
4M shares traded already in the first five minutes on a stock that averages 4.7M
Great article on analyst upgrade...
Bernstein's uber analyst Geoffrey Porges is making a big biotech call upgrading Dendreon (NASDAQ:DNDN) to Outperform from Market Perform with a $10 target (prev. $7).
- Porges now convinced Provenge is not dead; Raises his estimates significantly; Sees $1+ EPS power by 2016 yielding significant upside for the stock.
The basis for his upgrade is the feedback he and his firm received from urologists in recent months as part of Bernstein's ongoing monitoring of the adoption of Medivation's Xtandi and its positioning against JNJ's Zytiga. That feedback, particularly from community urologists, convinces them that Provenge is not going to disappear, and in fact is more likely to return to modest but steady growth once the turbulence in the market (and the company) stabilizes. When the market (and industry observers) realizes that this is occurring, Porges expects the stock to offer significant upside given current low expectations.
Dendreon has been one of the worst performing stocks in biotech for the past two years, languishing between $4 and $5.50 since mid 2012 compared to prior highs of $40 to $45 in 2011. The last 18 months have seen the progressive disaster of poor forecasting, reimbursement challenges, slowing revenue growth, insider selling, excessive cash burn, shareholder class action suits, changes in management and board membership and finally restructuring. Most traditional healthcare and biotech investors have abandoned the company, and the stock now reflects a significant probability of extinction, in Bernstein's view. Investors have endorsed the dogma that the firm outlined in their coverage initiation a year and a half ago, which suggested that new prostate cancer drugs such as Zytiga and Xtandi will crowd out Provenge and gradually reduce its revenue opportunity, such that Dendreon fails to ever achieve sustained profitability.
- To explore the impact of these competing drugs, and how perceptions of Provenge are evolving, Bernstein recently conducted a series of one-on-one detailed phone interviews with urologists who are current users of Provenge – their thesis was that if Provenge is going to disappear, current users should be reducing their patient numbers now, or expecting to in the future.
When they contacted urologists with significant experience with Provenge, the firm found the opposite of these bleak expectations. The busiest urologist Provenge prescribers have been increasing their use, and recruiting colleagues and peers to use the product as well. These high volume users acknowledge some hiccoughs, but are adamant that they will recommend the drug to a significant and growing minority of advanced PC patients. Not only do they not expect any reduction in the frequency of use, but instead expect a 10-20% increase in the frequency of use in 2013, compared to 2012, and a further increase in 2014. These findings differ from Bernstein's prior research and other opinions about Provenge because they come from current users of Provenge; however, they are consistent with Dendreon's own comments and information (+15-25% sequential growth in urologists' use) from the last three quarterly conference calls.
- Based on these findings they are increasing their revenue forecast for Provenge; They now forecast peak revenue for Dendreon of $799mm by 2017, compared to $580mm previously with a significant contribution from ex US markets.
- They expect the company's cash expenses to now match revenue by mid 2013, and for the company to report full year positive earnings in 2014. Firm's adjusted EPS estimates are now for pro forma earnings of $0.17 in 2014, then $0.54 in 2015 and $1.14 in 2016. These are all significantly higher than recent consensus;
This call is consistent with Bernstein's more cautious stance about the higher quality mid cap biotech stocks toward the end of 2012. Porges believes there may be more opportunity in the disliked "out of favor" names (of which Dendreon is the poster child) than in chasing new highs for the recent sector leaders.
Given the cost and complexity of Provenge, Porges thinks Dendreon is unlikely to be a free standing company long term.
Notablecalls: There are several reasons why this is a big call and likely to have significant positive impact on the stock:
1) Porges is the probably the most respected analyst in the space; He is the Axe.
2) Dendreon has been left for dead by almost everyone except some die hard cult followers; Short interest stands at 30%.
3) Porges is now saying outright Provenge is going to survive and even thrive; His estimates are now way above Consensus.
4) EPS power of $1+ in '16 will yield in a $20-25/share stock = huge upside.
5) Porges is making a very sensible bet saying out-of-fav names are going to be the place to be in 2013. DNDN is the prime candidate.
6) This call is a huge surprise. I bet there are analysts out there today telling their associates to get on the effin phone and start talking to docs. If the feedback they are going to get is anything similar to what Porges recieved there are going to be more upgrades.
All in all, this call is likely to take the stock above $6/share today and toward $7 in a few weeks.
If revenues increase, euro expansion is approved, and cogs drop, then it will easily surpass that level and likely climb much higher. We should have a pretty good idea by 3Q about many of these things. I don't see it getting back to $50+, but I think it could be a multi-bagger still.
Positive Barron's Article
"There are some good opportunities," says David King, manager of the Columbia Convertible Securities fund (PACIX). He's partial to a Chesapeake Energy 5¾% convertible preferred (CHKVZ), which recently traded at about $900, below its $1,000 face value, for a 6.4% current yield. The Chesapeake convert offers a lower-risk way to play a revival in natural-gas prices than the company's common shares. King also is partial to a 2?% convert from biotech company Dendreon (DNDN), recently trading below 75 cents on the dollar and a 13% yield to maturity in 2016. Dendreon developed a novel treatment for advanced prostate cancer that has had disappointing revenues. The company isn't far from cash-flow break-even and could be a takeover target."
Source: http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704723404578207791554873144.html?mod=TWM_pastedition_1#articleTabs_article%3D1
filled gap. 200 MA next target.
It did go above $50...And then completely collapsed. I've found it to be a great buy though, paying under $5/share :)
Looking for big gains in 2013.
Dendreon Sells New Jersey Immunotherapy Manufacturing Facility
12/20/2012| 08:35am US/Eastern
Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN) today announced the sale of its immunotherapy manufacturing facility (IMF) based in Morris Plains, New Jersey, to Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation for $43 million in cash.
"This agreement represents a positive outcome for Dendreon, our shareholders and New Jersey," said John H. Johnson, chairman, president and chief executive officer of Dendreon. "Dendreon continues to make progress in improving our financial strength, and this transaction is aligned with that goal as we work to build value for our shareholders. We are also pleased that approximately 100 of the existing employees at the facility will have the opportunity to retain their jobs and work for Novartis as the company builds out its immunotherapy operations and develops new treatments for patients."
Dendreon's Morris Plains, New Jersey, facility is a 173,100 square foot state-of-the-art IMF, featuring revolutionary capabilities to manufacture PROVENGE® (sipuleucel-T), the first autologous cellular immunotherapy to receive U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval for the treatment of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic metastatic castrate resistant prostate cancer. Earlier this year, Dendreon announced its intent to wind down the manufacturing of PROVENGE® at the Morris Plains facility in conjunction with a strategic restructuring plan designed to accelerate the Company's path to profitability and future growth.
"Activated Cellular Immunotherapy offers the potential to treat a variety of diseases in a revolutionary way. We are pleased that Novartis has selected our facility to advance and accelerate their work in this exciting and emerging field," said Christine Mikail, executive vice president, corporate development at Dendreon.
Unfortunately, the 50% statistic provided relates to mice -- not patients. The human trials are just beginning, although there is strong optimism. Here's a good run-down of the study: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1053911-dendreon-new-provenge-trial-involves-drugs-shown-to-shrink-tumors?source=yahoo
Great move back across $5.
Well, looks like all isn't as rosy as when I woke up this morning. Jeffries Group reiterated their underperform rating and the stock has taken a swing: http://www.dailypolitical.com/finance/stock-market/jefferies-group-reaffirms-underperform-rating-on-dendreon-dndn.htm
I'm slightly skeptical of the timing given the number of shares short and the fact that the stock has appeared to be making a reversal. But it is what it is and I guess we'll see what happens going forward.
I thought it had been excessively beaten down as well, which is why I jumped in a few months ago. I jumped the gun a little early, but have been averaging down to where my cost avg. is currently $4.90/share.
This morning we broke thru resistance at $4.50. Lovin the higher highs and higher lows. Chart looking great as it seems to be holding the 50MA. Hoping we've seen the end of the lows and it continues to inch up over the coming months. Trend reversal? I believe the next indication will be the reporting in mid December of shares short as of 11/30 -- a second month of reductions in a row would be a strong indicator that those shorting the stock (at enormous rates) are backing off.
Short interest thru 11/15 down by 1.8M shares from 10/31. Positive sign given the short interest had increased this year alone by nearly 15M shares. Watching the action last week, my gut says more covering was occurring so hopefully we'll see the shares short drop again when the 2nd half of this month is reported. Short interest dropping thru two consecutive reports would be a positive indication that DNDN hasn't seen in a long time.
Or maybe today... :)
Maybe you didn't call it correctly either...
I certainly was not expecting what we've seen today with the price action. Based on the report and conference call this morning though, a very good case can be made that DNDN has turned the corner.
The only gripe can be with revenue, although given their sales force was decimated and they were still putting their team back together throughout the 3rd quarter, I thought the number they turned in was pretty good.
And while the competition is still a factor, it sounds like most doctors still see a strong place for Provenge early in treatment and then would move to some of the other options -- so the results of the sequencing studies in 2013 will be important. Furthermore, they are losing business in the academic settings that are utilizing the various clinical trials but picking up business in the community settings (14% growth), which is very positive since the majority of the revenue will come from the community setting.
I liked that COGS fell from 77% to 66% (despite lower sales) and we'll see the full benefits of the restructuring in early-mid 2013. I also like that we'll probably hear about European approval in early-mid 2013. And around the same time frame, it sounds like we'll hear the results from the Zytiga sequencing study.
So, I'm looking at the approx. 50M shares short and thinking that the risk/reward to those shorting the stock is not that great and actually seems substantially riskier based upon today's events.
Looks like more dilution...
Fibrocell Science, Inc. (OTCBB:FCSC), a biotechnology company focused on commercializing LAVIV, the first and only FDA-approved personalized cell therapy in aesthetic dermatology, and on developing innovative autologous cell therapies for additional aesthetic, medical and scientific applications, today announced that it has entered into a securities purchase agreement for a private placement financing with a select group of institutional investors and high net worth individuals, including NRM VII Holdings I, LLC, a Third Security, LLC affiliated fund. Upon the closing of the transaction, Fibrocell will receive gross proceeds of $45.0 million from the sale of 450 million shares of common stock at a price of $0.10 per share.
Concurrent with the closing of this transaction, the outstanding Series D and Series E Convertible Preferred Stock will be converted into common stock, leaving no remaining shares of preferred stock outstanding. Also concurrent with the closing, approximately $2.1 million in principal amount of the Company's outstanding convertible notes will also be converted into common stock at a conversion price of $0.10 per share and the remaining $1.5 million in principal amount of the outstanding convertible notes will be redeemed for cash with the proceeds from the transaction. The outstanding convertible notes shall be converted and redeemed in the amount of outstanding principal, accrued interest and interest scheduled to maturity. There will be no debt outstanding at the closing of the transaction.
Concurrent with this transaction, Fibrocell announced that it has entered into a strategic collaboration with Intrexon Corporation, a synthetic biology company that utilizes its proprietary technologies to provide control over cellular function, for the development and commercialization of the next generation of genetically modified and non-genetically modified autologous fibroblasts and autologous dermal cells in the U.S. Intrexon will make available its proprietary platforms and technologies, including UltraVector(R), DNA and RNA MOD engineering, protein engineering, transcription control chemistry, genome engineering, cell processing, and cell system engineering, to the Fibrocell program.
As consideration, Intrexon will receive an upfront technology access fee of $3.2938 million payable by Fibrocell in common stock at the price paid in this financing. Fibrocell will engage Intrexon for support services for the development of new products under this agreement and will reimburse Intrexon for these activities. Upon commercialization of any of the products generated with Intrexon technology under the agreement, Fibrocell will pay quarterly cash royalties to Intrexon.
David Pernock, Chief Executive Officer of Fibrocell, stated, "This is a transformative and strategic financing for Fibrocell. With this capital we can unlock the power of our fibroblast platform to improve the lives of patients and to create value for stockholders. We now have a strong, simplified balance sheet, and we believe the investment will allow us to accomplish our key objectives: expand capacity to meet demand for LAVIV, improve our manufacturing efficiency and COGS, and further our clinical programs for potential new indications. The new relationship with Intrexon is exciting and strategically important by granting us access to their cutting edge technology so that we can continue to innovate and maintain our leadership in cell-based therapy. We warmly welcome our new investors and new board members and thank our existing stockholders for their participation in helping shape the future of the company."
RJ Kirk, Chairman of Third Security and of Intrexon, stated, "We believe Fibrocell is poised to lead in an important new category of therapeutic arts. The Company has an excellent management team, deep technical expertise, and proven production and commercial platforms. With the capital this raise provides for expansion and growth, we expect great success for LAVIV. And, through access to Intrexon's technology and the ability to innovate on top of an established and approved platform, such that even early experiments may be conducted within a GMP operating system, we expect the Company to establish a leadership role in creating additional high-value cellular therapeutics for underserved health needs. We are committed to our partnerships with Fibrocell and look forward to working with David and his team."
The private placement is expected to close no later than October 11, 2012 and is subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.
The available proceeds from the private placement will provide Fibrocell with the resources to expand the commercial launch of LAVIV, its first FDA-approved product for the treatment of nasolabial folds, to expand manufacturing capacity and implement process improvements, and to advance further development of LAVIV into other high unmet need indications such as the treatment of severe restrictive burn scars, vocal cord scarring and acne scars.
In conjunction with this financing transaction, Marcus E. Smith, Senior Managing Director and General Counsel of Third Security, LLC, and Julian P. Kirk, Managing Director of Third Security, LLC, will join Fibrocell's Board of Directors.
The Company's stockholders approved a proposed amendment to its Certificate of Incorporation to effect a reverse stock split of the outstanding shares of common stock, as determined by the Board, if the Board believes such action will facilitate the listing of the Company's common stock on a national securities exchange. The Board does not have a timetable for any such reverse stock split, but the amendment requires such reverse stock split, if it occurs, to be effective prior to July 31, 2013. The Company believes that the closing of this transaction is an important step in the Board's determination of whether to effectuate such reverse stock split and seek listing of the common stock on a national securities exchange.
MTS Securities, LLC acted as strategic advisor to the Company on the transaction.
Barclays and MTS Securities, LLC acted as lead placement agents and John Carris Investments, LLC acted as co-placement agent on the transaction.
provenge is fully covered by medicare. from what i've heard, dendreon has been good at dealing with insurance companies to ensure the treatment is covered, as you see from AET revising its policy a couple weeks ago. here's a link to the company website discussing reimbursement: http://www.provenge.com/reimbursement.aspx
no doubt the treatment is expensive, so hopefully the company will be able to bring COGS down and reduce the price in the future.
yes, VA refers to Veteran Affairs
Reuters summarizes AET policy change: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/28/us-dendreon-provenge-idUSBRE88R1A120120928?feedType=RSS&feedName=globalMarketsNews&rpc=43
Health insurer Aetna Inc said on Friday it will pay for a greater number of patients to receive Provenge, a prostate cancer drug made by Dendreon Corp, sending Dendreon's shares up as much as 10 percent.
Aetna will now include patients with metastatic prostate cancer who have failed to respond to hormone therapy and whose disease has spread to the lungs or the brain.
Previously patients whose cancer had spread to the brain or lungs were not covered. Patients whose disease has spread to the liver were not covered in the past and are still not covered.
Dendreon officials were not immediately available for comment. Provenge was approved in the United States in April, 2010.
DNDN moving. word is AET expanded coverage for provenge and DNDN jumped 50+ cents. that should sting the shorts and will be very painful if more buyers come in. 43,000,000 short / 12 days to cover.