Or maybe today... :)
Maybe you didn't call it correctly either...
I certainly was not expecting what we've seen today with the price action. Based on the report and conference call this morning though, a very good case can be made that DNDN has turned the corner.
The only gripe can be with revenue, although given their sales force was decimated and they were still putting their team back together throughout the 3rd quarter, I thought the number they turned in was pretty good.
And while the competition is still a factor, it sounds like most doctors still see a strong place for Provenge early in treatment and then would move to some of the other options -- so the results of the sequencing studies in 2013 will be important. Furthermore, they are losing business in the academic settings that are utilizing the various clinical trials but picking up business in the community settings (14% growth), which is very positive since the majority of the revenue will come from the community setting.
I liked that COGS fell from 77% to 66% (despite lower sales) and we'll see the full benefits of the restructuring in early-mid 2013. I also like that we'll probably hear about European approval in early-mid 2013. And around the same time frame, it sounds like we'll hear the results from the Zytiga sequencing study.
So, I'm looking at the approx. 50M shares short and thinking that the risk/reward to those shorting the stock is not that great and actually seems substantially riskier based upon today's events.
My posts are just my own opinions. Do your own DD.
