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re: "I believe that the adaptive trials are trying to address that issue."
Oh. That would be good then. Admittedly, I'm not familiar with what the difference is.
If a drug comes out of phase 2 safety trial as proven safe, why is an efficacy trial even necessary before people are allowed legal access to it? I mean, what's the worst thing that can happen? Maybe it wouldn't work on some people?
It appears to be a bureucratic one-size-fits-all ritual. Who does that help really? The patients or the crappy drug producer with deep pockets?
The assumption here seems to be that a new drug for a chronic disease is going to come out of phase 2 with a roster of bad side effects.
I was looking at the safety profile for an FDA approved platinum compound based drug used to treat cancer. It doesn't say that it might cause organ damage, it says thet it will cause organ damage, guaranteed. It's basically poison. Phase 3 in this case seems to have been to see if it kills cancer cells faster than it kills the patient.
Or the pharma co. can keep getting another shot if they can identify a sub-group of people or sub-type of cancer that some efficacy can be demonstrated on. The more mediocre the drug the bigger the trial since it facilitates the search for some sign of efficacy. Big pharma can easily afford to spend whatever it takes.
Meanwhile a drug proven to do no harm with indications of efficacy as reported by certified medical observers is held back from people who want to try it.
re:"I think we all agree that the dinky sample size makes solid conclusions elusive."
Sorry don't agree. :)
Don't feel like arguing about that right now.
This is more interesting.
re:"...bacteria or viruses that manage to violate the blood-brain barrier and force an Amaloyd reaction,..."
Turns out that there is a lot of material on this
http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2016/06/09/alzheimers-disease-brain-infection.aspx
"Beta-Amyloid May Be Both Protective and Damaging
It could be that a little bit of beta-amyloid is protective, while larger amounts lead to damage. You may develop more beta-amyloid plaques as you get older because your blood-brain barrier tends to become "leaky" with age, allowing the opportunity for more pathogens to enter your brain.
Separate research by Dr. Berislav Zlokovic, the director of the Zilkha Neurogenetic Institute at the University of Southern California, has shown that the leakiest area of the blood-brain barrier is near the hippocampus, where plaques typically form in Alzheimer's disease.2
Even brain infections that caused no symptoms could potentially lead to the buildup of plaques, which may explain why some people with no known history of brain infections go on to develop Alzheimer's.
It's also likely that people have varying abilities to clear the plaques from their brains after infection. Part of this may be genetically based and there are likely other factors involved as well."
So, it may not be such a great idea to get rid of amyloid carte blache or to simply stop its production, a fatal brain infection can be nipped in the bud by nailing the first few enemy "scouts"with a little amyloid.
Viruses also give off exosomes.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13311-016-0450-6
"Indeed, exosomes have been shown to cross the blood–brain barrier [25], "
Exosomes are like the chaff ejected from warplanes, a countermeasure to evade the guidance systems of missiles. In this case, they cause the immune system to expend its resources attacking the exosomes instead of the virus, even though the exosomes themselves can't infect cells.
Vaccines are also loaded with various virus fragments and add that to the exosomes you've got a lot of stuff aswim in the bloodstream that could lock a brain cell into a chronic amyloid defense mode. A lot more people receiving vaccinations in recent decades than before.
Mercury was also mentioned in a different article. It's a toxic heavy metal. That didn't stop it being a favorite of dentists for decades, for its use in amalgam, a conveneiently rapidly hardening substance, with ideal physical properties for fillings. Meanwhile, the EPA has gone around digging up whole towns, to get rid of mercury contamination. I recall a quote (by some enviromentalist, I think) " It seems the only safe place to store mercury is in the human mouth". Fillings corrode and dissolve over time (takes a lot of years, hm, about the time people start to get old). Where does the dissolved mercury go, the bloodstream maybe? Not enough to cause outright poisoning, maybe otherwise harmless in minute concentration, but maybe enough to screw up a brain cell.
Actually there is a device that can filter exosomes (and viruses) out of the the blood but the co. management is lackluster. Their competition is doing great in europe but they are private and not investable.
Consider that when a brain cell is frantically trying to pump out tons of amyloid to defend itself against what is actually a non-threat, it's not going to be able to do its normal duties very well, or at all.
Anavex 2-73 ability to restore cells to normal is just what the doctor ordered, imo.
re:"...beta-secretase cleaving enzyme (BACE) inhibitor... "
OK, looks like they're stepping in front of the cell and blocking an amyloid precursor protein with the aim of preventing the formation of amyloid plaque. This shows the persistant tunnel vision on the notion that the amyloid plaques are the end-all. Instead of fixing the cell to restore normal protein synthesis, they're in effect, putting a cork in it. Cute, but no cigar. imo
re: "...had substantial funding"
When my grandmother succumbed to Alzheimer's, the family decided to donate part of the estate to Alzheimer's research. People will do that sometimes, chip in on funding to try to help find a cure for an incurable disease. Where it goes from there, who knows? Up until then, the most that was figured out from autopsies was that maybe it had something to do with aluminum. So everybody threw their aluminum frying pans out, but now, decades later, Alzheimer's is worse than ever. So that wasn't it.
When my mother got it, many years and zillions of research dollars later, that brought us to Aricept. This is an insecticide that was found to boost Acetylcholine when given to people. Acetylcholine is a neurotransmitter that is analogous to "juice" in a battery. Apparently, turning up the juice can get the sick neurons to give it their all for a while. But what happens if you overcharge a battery? Nothing good, usually. It seems to me that the acetylcholine level is regulated by the body for a reason. Neurons involved in timing involve comparing a metered input to a reference, then firing when the threshold is reached, which resets it. If the reference level of a comparator function for an oscillator gets too far off, it will go into saturation and never trigger. If the other input is too strong it will try to oscillate at too high a frequency (fibrillate) out of range. The heart has such a neural sub-system.
Besides forgetting how to cook, she seemed to lose her time sense. The trouble with a drug like that is it permeates the whole body, not just the brain. She had no trouble with her heart before that but now it kept slowing way down then speeding back up. Finally it slowed down and stopped and never stated back up again.
I just watched another "Alzheimer's Cured!" utube video. The old guy was rave about being helped by another acetylcholine booster, also, taking herbs and fish oil. He was confident that Alzheimer's wasn't going to get him, that his heart would probably go first. Having trouble with his heart now, hmm, what a coincidence.
Newer research has discovered amyloid plaques and tau tangles. It appears linked to Alzheimer's although plaques can also be sometimes found in the brains of people who didn't have Alzheimer's. Lots of research schemes and trials being funded for that now. OK, try to clean up after the cell. Why not. Still, that's addressing a result of the problem, not actually the problem.
The very, very, latest research was a small piece I found very interesting. They were experimenting with bacteria and accidently discovered that a neuron will spit out a tau tangle like a kind of spider-man net to entangle the invader. Appears to be a kind of immune response.
What if these plaques and tangles are the result of a kind of allergic reaction? Like pollen with a regular allergy, there is something subtle in the environment that triggers the cell to start sneezing out tau tangles even though there is no actual invading organism. Accumulate enough snot and a person can choke. And can't people even die from allergies, e.g. peanut allergy.
It could be that Anavex works because it is a kind of tonic that calms the allergic reaction down. Maybe a little like Contac or Nyquel for regular allergies (and colds). Actually, Anavex repairs molecular damage inside the cell, it could be that damage has thrown it into a dire "attack mode". Unlike antihistamines we're not just suppressing immune response. I formed this theory because the sick cells always seem to produce these same plaques, not just random transcription errors.
Another thing mentioned in the old gent video was that aborigines living in the far north never get Alzheimer's . He thought it was the fish oil. Fish oil, yes. But what else do they have? Not much else in the way of vitamins or herbs. In fact, nothing grows. Just pure ice and snow, no air pollution. No environmental contamination. Interesting. Now which of the thousands of possible factors a typical urban / civilization dweller is constantly exposed to might be making neurons sick? What if it turns out to be something modern man can't do without? Maybe there is a genetic factor influencing susceptibility as well but I don't intend to go live in an igloo the rest of my life to find out.
Anavex's unique mode of operation is the key. OK, like a lot of people I took a hit on the share dump. I tend to think of my investment here as a targeted donation. Otherwise, you donate to some foundation and it could end up going to some researchers trying to train brain eating amoebae to eat amyloid plaques or the current dead ends.
Besides helping advance a working solution to be ready by the time I may need it, and helping Alzheimer's sufferers everywhere, I also believe there is a good chance of getting a return as well. Which would be fine.
re: " do you have a background in medicine-biotechnology "
Actually electrical. Electronic R&D design work early on then programming of late. Factory Automation, Controller and Robotic programming and Integration. Recently retired.
A few years back I became interested in neural nets for a while. I have "C" source code around here somewhere for a very realistic-acting software cockroach based on neural net modeling which was a lot of fun to experiment with. A neuron can basically be modeled as an array of (charge) comparators coupled to a mono-stable. You could build a brain out of discreet components for truly parallel logic, but you would quickly end up with something the size of a house for even a tiny brain. Then there are the interconnections. The thresholds for firing a neuron are also quite fine. So anyway, I think that I can claim to know something about neurons.
Early solid-state control systems were based on parallel logic (sometimes called "random logic" - (oxymoron, I know :) )). Ironically, these early systems were more like living nervous systems than the present, which are based in sequential logic.
It looks like it takes more than a basic grasp of chemistry to understand receptor interactions with internal cell dynamics but I have spent a lot of time studying the topic, researched a lot of companies, the disease, and as it relates to this company. I concluded that Anavex has the best goods.
I would expect anyone who reads through the literature to come to similar conclusion although my approach to understanding tends to come from an electrical (control systems) perspective.
re: "Social media
Facebook primarily"
So there were all positive postings on facebook and no detractors like everywhere else?
I've been meaning to say something about the McFarlane interview.
His expertise and focus is running clinical trials, collecting test data and observations, then issuing the findings. My impression is that his role is largely administrative. Most of the day to day patient contact is likely done by staff. He has probably seen scores of various drugs in their clinical trials come and go, either with disappointing or lackluster results. Therefore, why spend a whole lot of time studying the intricacies of each drug. I don't think bio-chemistry is really his thing anyway, not the big part of his job.
So when the interviewer asked about mode of operation, at least he got the name Anavex" right but while mostly correct he was a little off on his explanation.
He said that it "removes" amyloid plaques. That's not quite it. Actually 2-73 effects molecular repair inside the cell. It is because the cell is malfunctioning that it is producing misfolded proteins. Because it acts to restore the cell to health it doesn't affect the healthy cells in the rest of the body. So it doesn't have a problem with side effects like, for example, Aricept (donepezil). When the cell is healthy again it stops producing these bad proteins. There is already a mechanism in the body for minor cleanup so it may not even be necessary to try to remove them with chemical brute force at all, try to eat them with cloned anti-bodies, or blast them loose mechanically, etc.
It is understandable if he just grouped Anavex 2-73 into one of the two general categories of current treatment work, tau tangles plaques vs. neurotransmitter stimulation. Plaque buildup can make the cell sicker and strangle the cell but it is not the cause of the disease which Anavex uniquely addresses.
The only reason I mention it is that I have seen a post or two here citing plaque removal and saw the need for a little clarification.
re: "The PPS dropped because of disappointment that the results failed to meet the hype..."
I see no evidence of "hype". To what hype are you referring? Influential financial media outlets like Motley fool continued to post negative opinion. AF & company never changed their tune.
Yes, he does all right. Actually, his slight accent is rather compelling. It tends to make one listen a little more closely.
re: "He says it about half way through this interview."
Ok maybe I didn't go far enough back. This was a pretty off-the-cuff, literally on the sidewalk, one mention in a quick little interview in 2014.
"...possibility of maybe curing the disease"
Technically, he still didn't actually say the word "cure" though. :)
re: "I still think the silence and careful announcements from annavex are due to their lawyer and his advice to just keep it to themselves"
Doubtless good advice
re:" Let's hope they are making progress "
They are. The ridiculous lawsuit is all but dismissed, but the opposition still gets to appeal and so forth. No point in giving them straws to grasp at.
re: "Still haven't found where Missling used the word "cure" in reference to 2-73. "
I haven't either. In fact, the company has been quite circumspect in regard to announcements.
There have been a handful of more-or-less consistently positive posters on this board but even there, most of us have couched use of the "C" word with caveats to the effect that a complete cure probably isn't possible. The understanding that everything is relative.
I maintain my conclusion that there is enough evidence to prove a curative effect, but as I said before, nothing can bring dead cells back to life. I suspect that the less sick the person is, the better it will work. We can hold out some hope that maybe in more severe cases that some portion of the cells aren't hopelessly necrotic, but maybe only "mostly dead", to borrow a phrase from the character "Miracle Max" as portrayed by Mel Brooks in the movie 'The Princess Bride". So far, there is no evidence of a therapeutic limit being reached. Primary endpoints of safety and determination of dosage have been achieved, we'll learn more about extended efficacy of Anavex 2-73 in phase 3.
I will say, perhaps suffice to say, nevertheless, that this is the closest thing to a cure that has ever been discovered. (imo)
Fair enough. Though I see the glass 5/8 full. :)
Patients are getting better and staying better. This has never happened before. The disease is being stopped - no statistically significant measurable decline.
Patients and doctors are dissatisfied with Aricept-donepizel, Patients want 2-73. This is going to be the new standard of care.
re: "...Though shorting in itself is not illegal, collusion and naked shorting ARE! "
Actually, market makers are allowed the special privilege of creating shares out of nothing and selling them like they were real shares in order to maintain liquidity and normal market volumes with the provision that they obtain and deliver real shares to replace the phony shares within a fixed time period. If they don't, they can then get a slap on the wrist for "failure to deliver".
Deliberately destabilizing the share price by means of sudden massive dumping certainly goes against this guideline. Also, years ago, I seem to recall "running the stops" to bilk investors out of their shares at a cheap price as being illegal but now it is just seems to be considered to be an unfavorable trading practice.
Just what the parameters constituting abuse within the trading industry's current self regulatory framework are and at what point it crosses the line into actual governmentally defined illegality isn't very clear. And maybe that's the problem.
re:"Patent extensions can and do occur..."
A patent term restoration under the Hatch-Waxman Act is sometimes given to those who qualify.This applies to those whose products or processes, such as medications, medical devices, food and color additives, require testing and approval by the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) before they can be marketed. The period of time that you were unable to sell your product because you were awaiting FDA approval may be restored as an extension to the original patent. [3]
http://www.wikihow.com/Extend-the-Life-of-a-Patent
re: "Aricept is useless "
Not completely. It can still keep being used as an insecticide.
Cholinesterase Inhibitors (e.g. Aricept)
Cholinesterase inhibitors are used to treat Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, myasthenia gravis, and lice. They work by improving memory, controlling movement, improving muscle strength, and destroying lice and eggs.
http://www.goodrx.com/cholinesterase-inhibitors
Keep some right next to your can of RAID.
Next best thing to DDT.
re: '"Anavex has Research Value ALONE of MORE than $500,000,000 .... " ?
Where did that number come from by the way? "
I realize that was directed at another poster but it prompted me to try some numbers as well, just for fun.
Generic 10 mg Aricept (donepezil) is about $4.00 per pill at Safeway. Let's say $1.00 profit per pill. There are 5 million Alzheimer patients in the U.S. who take the pill every day.
That equals $1.00 X 365 days X 5,000,000 users = $1,825,000,000 annually.
That's $1.8 billion profit (Not revenue. Profit.) per year.
Let's say Anavex displaces Aricept with a generic 2-73 and only makes $0.10 per pill.
Forward PE ratio of 10 gives a $1.85 market cap.
Say we're only 1/4 of the way there = 1.8 / 4 = $450,000,000 MC
I think at present we have around 60 million os = $7.50 / share
Let's say dilution increases os to 100 million to fund getting all the there (to revenue).
$450,000,000 / 100 million os = $4.50 / share
All the way there = $18.00 / share
Sell to 50,000,000 estimated world users = $180 / share
$1 profit per pill to 50,000,000 world users = $1800 / share
The potencial market for taking it as a preventative like a vitamin may be 10X that...
Combining with donepezil would have been nice since then existing donepezil sales wouldn't be threatened. But it's starting look like donepezil drags down 2-73 rather than enhancing it. If the donepezil-approach powers are friendly, then good for partnership/buyout offer. If unfriendly, might tactics be tried to stifle the competition.
Aricept doesn't have the whole market but appears to have a large fraction along with about a half dozen other acetylcholinesterase inhibitors of varying effect and toxicity.
2-73 could replace all of them hence figuring based on complete market.
re: "Because the effect could only be observed in 7 patients it has no meaning except that it warrants to try this hypothesis in a bigger sized arm."
Consider turning it around.
Let's say one person throws up after eating at your favorite local restaurant.
Would you still go there? Maybe, right?
Now what if seven people get sick right after eating there?
Significant or not significant?
re: "And what I am saying is no one knows how they picked."
That's not true. They were picked because they were medically diagnosed to have alzheimers. Same as all the trial participants.
Unlike cancer trials in which participants are picked out first from the list hundreds of different types of cancer
http://www.cancer.gov/types
Cancer trial participants do quite typically get further screened and cherry picked for most likely positive response to a therapy specifically targeted to say, metastatic breast cancer that overexpresses the protein HER2/neu. That can be tested for ahead of time.
There is no such thing for alzheimers. You claim to be a medical professional. Pray tell, how could they cherry pick? They can't, can they?
re:"Funding for this initiative was provided by Axovant Sciences Ltd. Axovant Sciences Ltd. (NYSE: AXON) ..."
Blatant or maybe not so blatant pumping to suppress the truth about their obsolete approach.
This is like the sugar industry funding an initiative with expert witnesses urging people to eat more sugar. That sugar is bad nutrition is just a "misconception". See, it uh... provides energy ...
re: "If the news had been about reversing disease as the MacFarlane interviews suggested, the stock would have screamed up by a much higher percentage than it went down by. "
I don't see why. Is that a conclusion, based on what. Or is that just an assumption? There seems to be no rational reason for it to have gone down like that. So people are flailing about and grasping at an irrational reason. It's not because of McFarlane, but he is being hoisted up as a scapegoat.
As I argued in a previous post, the people who would benefit from reversal will be a subset of those benefiting from stabilization, and in either case, the same number of pills will be sold to the same patient population. There will be no difference in future profits whether the results from patient to patient vary between being simply superior to every other drug or being vastly superior. New standard of care is new standard of care. It is a binary event. The market will be saturated, as it is now with donepezil, which does not stabilize progression of the disease, when 2-73, which does stabilize, replaces donepezil. Excellent future here.
Advances elsewhere in early detection means that 2-73 stabilization also opens up a new larger market in prevention, something for which donepezil is completely useless. Stabilization is key. Now, that, is a reason for increased valuation over and above standard of care. Reversal or not isn't a future profit issue here either, since there are no symptoms yet to reverse. Adds to expectations of an even more excellent future.
It is merely making an assumption that investors suddenly dumped their shares, minutes after and in sudden total illogical disagreement with positive data, "positive", as stated by the company, came out. In fact, due to the opaque nature of the stock exchange, we really have no way of knowing from whom the huge number of shares being dumped, starting the cascade, were coming from, or even whether they were real shares or not.
Are you familiar with the term "running the stops"? For someone with millions to throw around, it's easy to manipulate stock prices and make many more millions. There's nothing to stop them and they know they can get away with it, so why wouldn't they?
Another thing that aids an attack is the principle that it's harder for a stock that's been driven down, to come back up. E.g. if it's down 50%, it has to rise 100% to get back to where it was.
Perhaps we'll leave it as an exercise to identify, who, besides direct profiteers from market manipulation, might also indirectly benefit, and how, from artficially produced severe damage to developmental company's market cap.
re: "The bigger problem I see is that McFarlane created expectations that these 3 patients were representative for the whole trial. The data presented could not live up to these expectation. Disease stabilization at 31 weeks is itself great, but not if you were expecting a reversal"
What difference would that make to future sales? None.
You just said it yourself : "Disease stabilization at 31 weeks is itself great..." .
People are going to buy the superior product. Which we have. Are we going charge more money for the 20% who exhibit reversal of debilitation? No. Are people going to choose otherwise inexorable deterioration over stabilization? No. Therefore, McFarlane's observations have no calculable impact on valuation. If someone is looking for an excuse for dumping shares, this isn't it.
Another poster mentioned advances in early detection going on in the field. Arresting the disease before actual symptoms manifest is huge. Huge in terms of steady eventual eradication of the scourge, but also a huge new market in terms of future sales. This makes the pipeline even more valuable.
We don't really want a cure.
What ! How could I say this?
Well, certainly I wish there had been a cure for my family members. And I may be at risk myself. From a patient and future potencial patient perspective, there would be nothing better than to take a few pills and then walk away, free from Alzheimers forever.
But, what about as an investor? From strictly a business standpoint what would a complete and lasting miracle cure mean? It would mean no more future sales to those cured. It would be a financial disaster. Big pharma has been accused for as much since in all the muriad pharmacopia out there, we would be hard pressed to find any actual cures being offered. Even the terminology is bent toward "treatment", not "cure".
The necessity for periodic treatments equals a revenue stream. An actual cure means the gravy train is over. I suppose the price of a single cure could be jacked up astronomically Shkreily style, but that would probably not go over poltically, besides being blatantly immoral to the millions who need it. We should be happy at this point that we are free from guilt and hand wringing over a moral dilemna.
The current standard of care barely has an effect on a temporary basis, has crappy side effects, yet it keeps on being given out into a multi-billion dollar market even after the point where it does no good at all. Simply because there hasn't been anything better.
Now we've got something that works better and is on par or safer than many over the counter treatments and herbal remedies being sold for a variety of ailments and diseases. Since 2-73 definately fends off disease progression, people would want to take it as a preventative. I know that I would. That market is likely ten times bigger than that of those already proven to have the disease. We have no choice but to move forward with our moral imperitive to try to bring this improved periodic lifelong treatment regimen to as many millions of people as possible. When that results in a rich revenue stream then, well, so be it.
Also, why do we even need a partner? Seems like all we would need is a pill making machine. Why not sell it over the counter?
Who is one of the biggest pharma companies around? Bayer. What actually propelled them to greatness? Aspirin.
re: "Korean red ginseng "
I tried ginseng once. I broke out in tiny red spots all over my body. Seems to have been some kind of allergic reaction. Anavex 2-73 has no such side effects.
"GINSENG, PANAX Side Effects & Safety
Panax ginseng is POSSIBLY SAFE when applied to the skin as part of a multi-ingredient product (SS Cream), in the short-term.
Panax ginseng is POSSIBLY UNSAFE when taken by mouth, long-term (more than 6 months). Researchers think it may have some hormone-like effects that could be harmful with prolonged use.
The most common side effect is trouble sleeping (insomnia). Less commonly, people experience menstrual problems, breast pain, increased heart rate, high or low blood pressure, headache, loss of appetite, diarrhea, itching, rash, dizziness, mood changes, vaginal bleeding, and other side effects.
Uncommon side effects that have been reported include severe rash called Stevens-Johnson syndrome, liver damage, and severe allergic reactions.
Special Precautions & Warnings:
Pregnancy and breast-feeding: Panax ginseng is POSSIBLY UNSAFE when taking by mouth during pregnancy. One of the chemicals in Panax ginseng has been found to cause birth defects in animals. Do not use Panax ginseng if you are pregnant.
Not enough is known about the safety of Panax ginseng during breast-feeding. Stay on the safe side and avoid use.
Infants and children: Panax ginseng is LIKELY UNSAFE in infants and children. Using Panax ginseng in babies has been linked to poisoning that can be fatal. The safety of Panax ginseng in older children is not known. Until more is known, do not use Panax ginseng even in older children.
"Auto-immune diseases" such as multiple sclerosis (MS), lupus (systemic lupus erythematosus, SLE), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), or other conditions: Panax ginseng seems to increase the activity of the immune system. It might make auto-immune diseases worse. Don't use Panax ginseng if you have any auto-immune condition.
Bleeding conditions: Panax ginseng seems to interfere with blood clotting. Don't use Panax ginseng if you have a bleeding condition.
Heart conditions: Panax ginseng can affect heart rhythm and blood pressure slightly on the first day it is used. However, there are usually no changes with continued use. Nevertheless, Panax ginseng has not been studied in people with cardiovascular disease. Use Panax ginseng with caution if you have heart disease.
Diabetes: Panax ginseng might lower blood sugar. In people with diabetes who are taking medications to lower blood sugar, adding Panax ginseng might lower blood sugar too much. Monitor your blood sugar closely if you have diabetes and use Panax ginseng.
Hormone-sensitive conditions such as breast cancer, uterine cancer, ovarian cancer, endometriosis, or uterine fibroids: Panax ginseng contains chemicals (ginsenosides) that can act like estrogen. If you have any condition that might be made worse by exposure to estrogen, don't use Panax ginseng.
Trouble sleeping (insomnia): High doses of Panax ginseng have been linked with insomnia. If you have trouble sleeping, use Panax ginseng with caution.
Organ transplant: Panax ginseng might make the immune system more active. This could interfere with the effectiveness of medications that are given after an organ transplant to reduce the chance that the organ will be rejected. If you have received an organ transplant, don't use Panax ginseng.
Schizophrenia (a mental disorder): High doses of Panax ginseng have been linked with sleep problems and agitation in people with schizophrenia. Be careful when using Panax ginseng if you have schizophrenia..."
re: " i have trouble understanding some of this stuff. "
This may be an over-simplification but describes a kind-of mental model I ended up with somehow after reading through a lot of the stuff on this.
It was discovered that cells have a kind of built-in emergency beacon that gets triggered, in effect, to sprout flags to signal the immune system if the cell goes haywire. Insidious cancer disables the signalling to hide itself, whereas the tapimmune approach goes in and repairs the locating beacons to enable the immune system to be able to find the bad cells again. The advantage to this is that healthy cells remain unaffected compared to a traditional approach of trying to use poison to kill the cancer, which tends to produce a lot of collateral cell death of healthy cells. Also, the immune system's killer t-cells lock on to the now brightly identifying cancer cell markers in a very specific way and remember the now, more clear, marker profile. This is also better than other approaches that simply over-stimulate the immune system in a general way which can cause problems if the system is unclear or gets confused on what to attack.
I might also add. that I also think that it is kind of illogical to require patients to undergo radiation and poison therapy first, which presumably damages the immune system, before being allowed to try the immunotherapy, a therapy that depends on a functioning immune system to be effective. It would seem to put us at an unfair disadvantage making it harder for it to work. If it still works at all, after all that, it must be pretty good.
re:" ...as any of us with a treatable neurodegenerative disease would make a daily injection for effective treatment, as with diabetes"
Or perhaps via a drug eluting implant. I imagine it could be made quite small and still last for weeks considering that only a tiny amount of 3-71 would need be metered out per unit time to meet the indicated effective dosing regimen.
If it costs $36,000 per patient X 300 patients, that only comes to $10,800,000
Feel like jabbering something about the surprise brexit move last night. Overnight markets are selling off, S&P looks to be down about 3% so far. Theoretically shouldn't affect AVXL but we know how that can go. Gold is up, oil heading down as expected. From what I've read, the general sell-off should likely be short lived, a kind-of dumb knee-jerk response.
Possible upside would be more cash floating around to go into non-petro stocks not effected by brexit such as promising bio-techs.
I even thought about shorting the s&p yesterday since upside was limited if no brexit. Drat, a bit late now. Well, can always add a bit more AVXL if it dips below my cost basis I suppose...
It might not dip. What does AVXL have to do with Brexit, nothing. Guess will get to see how far market irrationality can pervade.
re: "... The green ID strap around the scientist's neck in one scene bears a Melbourne Caufield Hospital logo. ..."
Sherlock Holmes would be impressed. :)
re: "Can anyone give me a brief and amazing summary of AVXL history? Im trying to figure out why the price collapsed from $20 back in 2008 to .60 at the beginning of 2015 and then ripped up to $14 and then back down to $4. "
Probably not amazing, maybe brief...
Everybody stampeded out of stocks in 2008 so it's no surprise that run-up got killed though their developments were showing promise even back then. A lot of companies (and investors) went broke or got set back to square one.
$5.39 was actual all time high on 12-31-07 (not $20)
http://www.microcapheadlines.com/retrieve/retrieve.asp?cid=187
Most charts now are going to show a price adjusted for the 1:4 reverse split they did to get on the NASDAQ exchange.
Post split it got artificially bumped or goosed up over $14 for about 150 milliseconds ( well, for a time measured in hours ) before it was shorted down into oblivion again. Small and micro-cap stocks are the playthings of hedge funds. If one doesn't realize this, many price moves on the exchange will seem baffling.
A lot of people writing articles really want this to be a scam. It's a rough sector space, there's been some wheeling and dealing, but, I don't think it is, based on my own DD. Admittedly, it's hard to tell friend from foe.
re: Aethlon vs. ExThera Medical
Aethlon management seems to have been sitting on their hands too long - no marketing execution. I was going to suggest blood purification prior to transfusion, as a potentially lucrative market with fewer barriers to entry, but I see that ExThera has already been right on top of it.
So they both have patents. How well would the patents stack up against each other - that could get messy.
Critics of Aethlon's mgmt. seem to have been right. They are starting to look like the stereo-typical "perpetual student" that just wants to stay in college forever and never venture out into the "real world". Kind of like the guy in the first "The Librarian" movie. :)
I wonder if there is a forum... need something like as "ipo watch" for when/if this co. (ExThera) goes public, though will be trying to remember to check this (as well as another co. in a different sector) periodically. Been in and out of Aethlon for years now, but it doesn't seem like they are going anywhere, at least from the "return on investment" standpoint.
re: "ExThera Medical Corp., a developer of blood filtering technology.."
It basically is Aethlon's Hemopurifier. It even looks just like it. How can they just copy it like that?
A bit of an outrage. Well, mainly because ExThera is privately held, not investable.
re:"In reality - a decent level of data could bring good partnership. "
All good. But an outright grant would be pretty sweet though. :)
The link is to what is actually a newletter pump article for a "secret" stock, probably not Anavex, I don't know, not a subscriber. It's possible, but we haven't been officially "discovered" yet... But with all the indications and orphan drug status for some, as well as the growing confidence factor and unmet need in the primary AD Anavex drug indication, I suspect that "Fast Track" status bestowed by the FDA is very possible at some point, and not too far down the road.
In regard to the article I like the "cut of its jib" or gist in that general regard (Fast Track).
We're at about $1.10 pre-split right now. If you look at the last 3 examples, you can see (although the charts are a bit compressed), how those stocks rose and then got pushed back down a few times like we are experiencing, before they finally took off:
http://www.investingdaily.com/25652/how-the-fda-mints-all-new-millionaires/
re:"...$400 million for Alzheimer's Disease research..."
Clinical trials would qualify as research, wouldn't they?
re:" clay deposits in Humbolt County, NV"
Now that you mention it, can't find anything on it newer than 2014. All the attention has been on the salars.
They were supposed to try roasting a bulk sample with experts in Germany to help work out the process and so forth. I seem to recall buildings were purchased for the plant when it was Western lithium. Also, I believe the drilling clay and lithium clays are separate operations.
Yes, wonder how all that is doing...
re: "can't understand why the board is completely dead"
Stocks have been pretty subdued in general I think due to fed meeting uncertainty.
I share a questioning stance with the other poster about Aerolift eXpress having a nice hardware / system package worked up but what is Valmie's contribution. Maybe sales and marketting ability? Or should we consider this a reverse merger with Valmie being the shell to get the actual tangible company Aerolift eXpress publically listed.
Link below is to article on another player in the drone / services space that looked real interesting. I like the market they have picked out but they appear to have been private (not investable) and there hasn't been anything heard out of them since 2014 :
http://www.fastcoexist.com/3035378/these-drones-with-little-brooms-keep-solar-panels-clean?partner=rss&cid=ps111coexist&utm_source=ps+taboola&utm_medium=paidcm&utm_campaign=ps111coexist&utm_content=coexist&utm_term=msn-msn
re: "If i could buy it..I would already be on it.."
Me too. :)
Actually, anybody at risk would benefit e.g. getting older...