Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

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re: '"Anavex has Research Value ALONE of MORE than $500,000,000 .... " ?

Where did that number come from by the way? "

I realize that was directed at another poster but it prompted me to try some numbers as well, just for fun.

Generic 10 mg Aricept (donepezil) is about $4.00 per pill at Safeway. Let's say $1.00 profit per pill. There are 5 million Alzheimer patients in the U.S. who take the pill every day.

That equals $1.00 X 365 days X 5,000,000 users = $1,825,000,000 annually.

That's $1.8 billion profit (Not revenue. Profit.) per year.

Let's say Anavex displaces Aricept with a generic 2-73 and only makes $0.10 per pill.

Forward PE ratio of 10 gives a $1.85 market cap.

Say we're only 1/4 of the way there = 1.8 / 4 = $450,000,000 MC

I think at present we have around 60 million os = $7.50 / share

Let's say dilution increases os to 100 million to fund getting all the there (to revenue).

$450,000,000 / 100 million os = $4.50 / share

All the way there = $18.00 / share

Sell to 50,000,000 estimated world users = $180 / share

$1 profit per pill to 50,000,000 world users = $1800 / share

The potencial market for taking it as a preventative like a vitamin may be 10X that...

Combining with donepezil would have been nice since then existing donepezil sales wouldn't be threatened. But it's starting look like donepezil drags down 2-73 rather than enhancing it. If the donepezil-approach powers are friendly, then good for partnership/buyout offer. If unfriendly, might tactics be tried to stifle the competition.

Aricept doesn't have the whole market but appears to have a large fraction along with about a half dozen other acetylcholinesterase inhibitors of varying effect and toxicity.

2-73 could replace all of them hence figuring based on complete market.