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I'm not sure he would be allowed to communicate so directly with shareholders until the court case is over. Technically, aren't we all plaintiffs having been roped in by the class action. Not real clear on this aspect of legal matters, maybe "allowed" is too strong. Or at least not discuss the case out of court.
I think that the matter of ending the lawsuit could be why the company has been rather quiet as well, having been accused of being self promoting etc. anything upbeat they might say might be attempted to be held against them...
re:"Were those results really ambiguous ? "
If that were a stock, a technical trader would look at support and resistance. It would need to fall through support to declare a trend reversal. It hasn't fallen through support.
Also, small sample size notwithstanding, the indication of continued efficacy for 2-73 alone is hard to ignore, yet many people, apparently, insist on making the effort. :)
re: "Does anyone have a company who has never been negatively impacted when dealing with Lincoln?"
They seem to have been specialized in OTC , most OTC companies are high risk and fail a lot for a variety of reasons. A lot of them would have failed anyway, just sooner without the high risk priced financing. Financing is a but like car insurance isn't it, someone with a poor driving record is going to be asked to pay a high premium.
Some Lincoln Park clients that don't appear to be failing so far.
U.S. Geothermal - seems to doing ok
Nephros, Inc - seems to be doing ok
Aastrom bioscience - now Vericel, doing ok but (eerily familier looking) peak then dump but still higher than before.
xG Technology, Inc - Big jump recently then dip but still higher than before.
re: "Certainly was a much better time."
Yup.
I forgot to mention his tie-in with the radio station
"Outside of work, he has been a fixture on Melbourne radio since 1995, presenting regularly on the topic of psychiatry in film on 3RRR's "Radiotherapy" programme on Sunday mornings"
http://www.rotarydistrict9800.org.au/news/6955/dr-stephen-macfarlane-associate-professor-and-director-of-aged-psychiatry-stephen-macfarlanel/?type_fr=8
Stephen Macfarlane - Associate Professor & Director of Aged Psychiatry, Alfred Health
Stephen Macfarlane is the Associate Professor and Director of Aged Psychiatry at Alfred Health, a leading tertiary hospital network in Melbourne, Australia which strives to achieve the best possible health outcomes for its patients and community by integrating clinical practice with research and education. An expert in frontal lobe disorders, as well as hoarding and squalor issues, aged care psychiatry, and health care policy, Professor Macfarlane conducts Alzheimer’s disease clinical trials and provides medical education to psychiatry trainees, medical students and the broader community. He also makes the most of his 25 years of professional experience by offering radio broadcasts on topics related to health care.
With a wealth of knowledge and experience amassed over the course of an illustrious career spanning a quarter of a century, Professor Macfarlane continuously strives for excellence in his every endeavor.
http://stephenmacfarlane.net/
Triple-R radio station, kind of reminds me of college radio I used to listen to years ago.
"Three Triple R is a listener-funded community radio station where almost all the broadcasters are volunteers who work alongside a small paid staff. Around 70% of programming is music based with both generalist and specialist music shows ranging across various genres."
http://www.rrr.org.au/
Listening to Graveyard Shift show on streaming (currently nighttime in Australia)
Nice rendition of Pink Floyd "Wish You Were Here" Playing Right Now
Listened to the whole thing
Gosh, Forgot how much I like this song. :)
http://ondemand.rrr.org.au/live
Good analogy!
re: "It hasn't stabilized the disease."
Yes it has. I saw the chart.
re:" Your talking about underpowered data from a tiny trial with no control arm."
Power is dependent on the magnitude of the effect.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3672856-anavex-life-sciences-interview-with-dr-stephen-macfarlane
Five out of the 6 cogstate domains showed improvement, with 3 of these showing large effect sizes. The 'one-back' test within cogitate showed an effect size of 1.1 (meaning the standard distribution curve of the results was improved by 1.1 standard deviations, a huge effect size. A published meta-analysis of donepezil's benefit on the same test showed an effect size of 0.28. The significance of this particular change is underlined by the fact that 75% of our sample had already been taking a stable dose of donepezil for at least three months, so the improvements on the Cogitate battery (and on all the other cognitive outcome measures, were achieved over and above the gains our participants might already have achieved through being on donepezil. The same is true for the improvements noted on MMSE and ADCS-ADL, and the EEG markers (of which one ERP was statistically significant). I gather much is being made in certain circles that the remainder of the EEG markers, as well as the MMSE and ADCS-ADL scores failed to achieve statistical significance, but in a 5-week study of 32 patients it would almost have been beyond belief if this were to have been shown to be the case. The study was not powered to demonstrate significance, but the response on certain outcome measures was so marked that significance was achieved anyway (at a level of p=0.001 in the case of the Cogitate one-back task.
Don't worry though the next round will have a larger sample size. And, I guess, a control arm though I have argued in a previous post as to whether it is necessary. If this were a developmentall miner, go ahead and ignore the drill results and wait until all the gold has been dug out of the ground, melted into bars and weighed to see if you are right. :)
re: "The anecdotal results are anecdotal results."
Isn't that a tautology?
re: "There are countless documented cases of miraculous cures in everything from cancer to Alzheimer's."
And that would be a non sequitur.
re: "Biotech investors need to discern factual evidence from scientific fact."
O.....kay :)
re: "The control patients in the PRAN trial had amyloid results that were never seen in any previous trial. It put the whole trial in question and was never accounted for. "
Do you mean this?
http://www.biospace.com/News/prana-biotechnology-tanks-as-lead-drug-fails/328526
There have already been many posts on why excess amyloid production is a result not the cause. There is still a lot of hype (though few seem to see it that way) and tunnel vision on blowing away/dissolving the plaque and tangles, neutralizing the precursor to kill amyloid production, etc. Of course it will ultimately fail because the cell is still sick. 2-73 repairs what is making the cell go hay-wire internally (geez, I almost said the "C" word... :) ) , it actually makes them healthy again unlike all previous attempts that fail to look under the hood.
The reason there have been so many failed trials in the past is that most have been repeat variations on the same theme when they have not been off the mark completely (e.g. attacking with cloned antibodies). The two main categories have been: 1. Boost acetylcholine , 2. Eliminate amyloid
Also there was never sustained and marked improvement hence the larger groups to try to squeeze out statistical significance. There also seems to be some industry bias, for example that the Aricept deaths showing up statistically conversely could be dismissed as not significant.
re: "The anecdotal findings are practically meaningless."
They're not anecdotal anymore. They have been duly recorded and reported by trained and certified medical observers in a clinical setting.
re: "There was not even a control arm. "
We already know what the industry darling, Aricept/Donepezil does.
http://www.webmd.com/alzheimers/news/20060317/11-aricept-deaths-in-clinical-trial
There is also already decades of data on steady cognitive decline due to AZ with and without various attempted treatments. How many more times do you think that needs to be proven.
re: " If the results continue to be ambiguous,..."
They don't look ambiguous to me. I would characterize them as in-line / positive, what I expected, and should have resulted in a continued increase of perceived valuation, up to around the $8 level.
Sustained therapeutic effect after 31 weeks. That is better than anything else that exists. No cognitive decline below statistical error limits. It's still inside the bars.
I'm not a big fan of donepezil but it is the current soc, and it may be ok to "top-off the tank" on acetylcholine levels early on to give the patient a boost before it becomes counter-productive. I'm glad to see low dosage levels (5mg) on that. Also a one-way synergy is demonstrated in that 2-73 mitigates the donepezil side effects. But there is also indication that improvement continues without donepezil dragging 2-73 down after donepezil becomes ineffective and that patients should be taken off of it at that point.
Pessimistic articles are trying to attribute the remarkable improved functioning in some patients to simply feeling better temporarily from other ailments. Well, in the videos, the subjects appear to be in pretty good shape, it's not from that.
Now the same argument could be applied to the patients we don't see but we do know that many are "frail" and probably do suffer from other conditions like arthritis or prostate. They are already old and such ailments of old age tend to only get worse over time as they get even older. It is more likely that discomfort from those other things worsening could put downward pressure on a person's cognitive test scores. Also the weather (ie winter, cold, dampness) can aggravate joint problems and so forth.
"Would the 50 mil from Lincoln be enough to get 2/3 trial to submission? TYIA."
I would say yes.
Also consider phase 1 is done and well along in phase 2. Adaptive trial design likely to further reduce costs.
"The cost of clinical trials vary based on therapeutic area. The average cost of clinical trials across all therapeutic areas in the US was around $30-40 million before approval (Phase 1+2+3) and roughly equivalent amount post approval (Phase 4). The total cost increases by few million dollars every year."
I don't know what they mean by "post-approval" but once approved, money gets a whole lot easier to come by.
https://www.quora.com/How-much-do-clinical-trials-for-drugs-cost
re: "What's the difference between 'safety' and 'little to no side effects'?"
The difference between being redundant or simply repeating yourself? :)
There are some drugs that are inherently unsafe in their primary intended mode of action. For example, people are inundated with all kinds of microbes as a matter of daily living. Now a drug designed to suppress the immune system for, say, organ transplant, could easily cause you to die from an infection. Doctors will administer it taking an educated guess that they will be able to use other drugs, some still-effective antibiotic against bacteria or antiviral against a virus to keep the first drug from killing you. Knocking out the immune system is dangerous, not safe, but that's not a side effect, that's its designed purpose.
Let's see, giving a blood thinner to prevent clotting to dissolve a blood clot. Hope the patient doesn't sneeze and bleed out through their nose or from a minor cut, or internally. Primary function unsafe, not a side effect.
"No side effects" is pretty super.
"Little side effects", temporary, inconsequential, pretty good, remarkable, worthy of remark.
As opposed to side effects that are safe in terms of likelyhood of killing you or causing serious harm (e.g. organ damage from cancer drug) but still make you miserable and/or disfunctional. Those would be bad or big, major side effects. A matter of degree.
“Our prescription drugs are the third leading cause of death after heart disease and cancer. Our drugs kill around 200,000 people in America every year, and half of these people die while they do what their doctors told them—so they die because of the side-effects,” said Dr. Gotzsche in his recent interview. “The other half die because of errors—and it’s often the doctors that make the errors because any drug may come with 20, 30 or 40 warnings, contraindications, precautions…and then the patients die.”
Let's see, number from a somewhat over-the-top website I just found, not counting "Iatrogenic deaths" or chemotherapy. Chemo drugs aren't broken down into whether due to side effects or being inherently unsafe. I guess both. They are, basically, poisons.
"Adverse drug reactions" : 1,763,953 (in the U.S.) since Jan. 1, 2000
So, roughly, (1,763,953 / 16) = 110,247 side effect deaths per year. (and counting)
Figuring half of the chemo and whatnot, 200,000 would seem to be pretty credible...
http://pharmadeathclock.com/
re: "Did you uncheck it?
Yes but I prefer "add to favorites because you can organize them into named directory structures. So I never use(d) history.
Don't have pm. Trying a reply here after all so as not to appear impolite but we were digressing quite a bit. Hopefully this will stay long enough to see.
re: "But Avanex doesn’t really have the cash to start one..."
Two or three hundred patients should be sufficient according to discussions I've seen.
At an estimated $36k per patient, a 250 member adaptive trial could be paid for up front with $9 million cash on hand. Of course, this money is more-or-less reserved to cover operating expenses for a year so they can take their time. Such a trial doesn't need to be paid in advance and will likely be recruited over time.
Unlike most developmental stage companies they have nil debt. Also they have a $50 million+ credit card with Lincoln that they haven't activated yet. Only it's actually a debit card that can draw on a portion of the 60 million authorized shares still in the cupboard. The agreement with Lincoln Capital has been carefully detoxified.
IMO Anavex already has the formulas in hand, doesn't need research help, doesn't really need a partner, except maybe a pill maker. Either partner or acquire e.g. Pfizer bought Park-Davis.Going to need a lot of pills at some point. If it were me, I'd just buy a pill making machine. The only thing more highly automated than pill making is semi-conductor manufacturing. Pill making is a lot less complicated. And by machine I mean setup a manufacturing cell. As a division it could be run by a handful of employees. But that's just me. By farming everything out they've saved tying up a lot of capital in depreciating assets.
They also have a good track record on getting grant money.
ho hum
Now that the rain has stopped I'm going to go out and plant a tree. Japanese Maple, very cool looking tree. The leaves resemble cannabis at first glance. :)
fwiw AD chart shows about 20k shares cyclically being sold (or shorted). Just enough to push it back down and keep it range bound when net shares traded rise to zero, the slight rise likely from being subsequently covered. Then sold again near zero net, just enough to push it back down and keep it range bound, with a slight downward bias. I would guess the downticks are mostly from a few would-be swing traders exiting. Otherwise minimal or zero net additional shorting/covering. 3 cycles in the last three hours so far, going by the live minute chart.
The negatively and range bound action seems to have been successful so far at quelling new buying and discouraging interest in swing or momentum trade potential for now.
re: "HOLD "
I can do that. :)
re: "Because everyone in the world know 2-73 "works"? "
Anyone who looks at the data will see it proves a sustained positive effect after 31 weeks overall and unexpectedly stellar results in many of the subjects.
Someone putting a negative spin on this is in effect saying:
"Are you going to believe me or your lying eyes?"
:)
re:" I suppose it depends on which browser you are using."
IE in this instance.
There it is. "delete browsing history on exit" is checked.
oh well
re: "Look at your browser history and you should be able to find it. "
Thanks. The last entry just took me back to the top page though. & I think my security software may have worked against me here.
Shucks.
re: "The Justice Dept (FBI) investigates on behalf of the SEC. The SEC may do further analysis but the FBI does the leg work. "
Oh. For some reason I thought it might have been the other way around.
You know what was strange? I was perusing the sec docket on their website and come across a couple of entries labeled "redacted". I opened the pdf for one of them and got to read it. Any information about the case or persons was blanked out with "-redacted-". What was interesting is that they were denying a "whistleblower" a reward because the information wasn't any good or something to that effect. I was going to post a link but when I went back to their site, it was gone. Now there don't appear to be any labeled "redacted". A little creepy, actually. :)
Are there red lights flashing? Guess I better finish posting this before the black helicopters get me. They may be on their way. :)
Anyway, evidently they do act on anonymous "whistleblower" complaints or requests but apparently decide later if it was a false lead or not.
re: "In our case SEC 'investigation' played a short hand by triggering numerous class actions and thus helping shorts to drive the stock price down."
Yes, that was decidedly unhelpful.
re: "...The whole investigation MIGHT have been requested by the Justice Dept....'
That possibility hadn't occurred to me. It's plausible.
Be nice if the SEC was doing something helpful, unfortunately, so far, it's easier to imagine them being less than stellar in that regard.
re: "...sue AF..."
You know, what's coming out of the class action litigation is that the people who participated in the smear campaign triggered the precipitous drop in share price. The complaint tries to establish that it was "false and misleading statements" by Anavex "exposed" by AF and other(s) which is proven untrue, therefore, the accusation itself is based on false and misleading statements. Statements that they took short positions means that they materially profited and in the case of Adam "Wrath of Kahn" Fuerstein, he might even be shown to have an additional emotional motive of vindictiveness.
The class action guys already have their plaintiffs in place and quotes from the smear writers compiled. There is even presumably a pile of money from the short selling profits that the law firm could get their cut of. Maybe after the present case is wrapped up, someone should suggest it to them as an opportunity to recoup their expenditures. :)
(*Kahn was the early Star Trek "Wrath of Khan" movie character who was poised to launch an empire but then lost everything due to his obsession with taking revenge on Captain Kirk)
Yup. A lot more upside on the horizon, as the misplaced pessimism that held this stock down for so long continues to fade.
My goodness Karin, like a magical genie, mention your name and you appear. :)
Thanks for the info.
So, no new actual developments on the motions yet?
"Lead Plaintiff shall serve any opposition to the motion to dismiss by July 13, 2016,"
Link to Opposition to Motion to Dismiss:
filed 2016-07-14 23:15:51
http://ia600400.us.archive.org/31/items/gov.uscourts.nysd.451756/gov.uscourts.nysd.451756.65.0.pdf
Pulp fiction was never so good. :)
An example of a bit of specious BS therein. They're trying to establish a motive for their fantasy world portrayel of Anavex as desperate to get money through a scandalous stock promotion and manipulation plot. So far they've failed on motive (along with everything else).
This assertion either assumes ignorance about how to read a financial report or is yet another a pathetic attempt to be misleading. Ironically, something they accuse the defendants of. Are they trying to scam the judge now? Amazing.
"Anavex has suffered from immense deficits as a result of its lack of progress. The
Company’s accumulated deficit as of December 31, 2015 was $67,235,964."
"Suffered", that's rich! :)
That's not debt! Despite the misleading implication. That's paid in capital. In other words, it's simply an informational total of all the money paid in by initial buyers of the stock from day one. With about 36M outstanding shares that comes to an average of a little under $2 / share. Even at $3, shares subsequently trading back and forth in the float, that's not a bad average appreciation of value for investors, overall. Now, if the company sells some more of its authorized shares to raise capital, the money they receive for those shares when they go out the door to become outstanding shares, thereafter, that money they keep, to spend on whatever company requirement they decide. Or add it the the $10M cash on hand. They don't have to pay it back to anybody. That's the whole idea behind stock (as opposed to bonds).
The only actual debt I see in the financial report is a couple of promisory notes to a couple of former directors totalling $87,887 issued in 2013 and paying 12% interest. Niether has cashed their's in, evidently preferring to collect the interest. That's miniscule for a developmental stage company.
Most homeowners probably owe more on their mortgages.
re: "The company's filing was in response to this complaint. "
Right. I skipped because some items are dropped I believe in the "amended" complaint and then the remaining items appear with each refutation in the motion for dismissal. It seemed redundant to repeat reading them twice when they are all in the second document of which documents are rather long to read through.
I guess reading them by themselves is good for a chuckle or two. :)
re: "If AVXL isn't granted a dismissal they will surely do a cost benefit analysis of the amount it would cost for litigation vs a lump sum settlement. "
It's pretty clear and I'm glad that Anavex is refusing to setttle out of court.
Otherwise, yes, it is often the case that a company being sued takes the easy way out and pays off the plaintiffs, to just make the whole thing go away. The assumption is that the defendant has made some misstep and settling is a way to get out of it without admitting guilt. It's what (for want of a better term) the "ambulance chasing" lawfirms are counting on. They don't even need to win a real case and still get their cut of the loot (typically one third, I believe).
What's bad is when the defendant is innocent but may not have the resources or the moxie for a protracted legal contest. Capitulating to such a shake-down bears a strong resemblance to extortion. But it looks like Anavex not going to stand for it. As it should be.
Anavex is going to clear its name. The plaintiff's claims, range from being clearly bogus to the patently ridiculous. Rather than be subject to the redundant, one can see them refuted item by item in the Motion For Dismissal (link below).
http://ia800400.us.archive.org/31/items/gov.uscourts.nysd.451756/gov.uscourts.nysd.451756.62.0.pdf (from KarinCA's website)
The plaintiff doesn't have a leg to stand on. They were given time to file an opposition. That they waited till the last minute, (actually they were a day late) indicates being reduced to delaying tactics.
The opposition contains just more of the same warmed-over specious BS. Seems like spacer filler just so they had some kind of text to submit even though it's empty of substance. They may as well have cut and pasted the sports section from last Sundays newspaper, for all the support it lends to their sorry excuse for a case. It looks like now the intent is going to be to delay the inevitable as long as possible. Anavex can wait them out. Then the gavel will fall.
I'm rooting for "Dismissal with "Prejudice".
Imo, the chances of sleazy extortionists getting anything out of this insult to the justice system that they have concocted are:
Slim and None.
And Slim just left town. :)
re: "Pre-market can also be a setup for a gap and crap"
Yeah, it doesn't really mean anything necessarily.
Though the fact that we are getting pre-market activity at all (and in the up direction) is nice to see for a change. Mostly small trades so far...
Pre-market activity indicates buying interest is back.
Trades coming in at the upper end of the spread.
Should be a nice little gap up this morning at open.
re: '...I'm hoping they are still investigating, including the recent manipulation ..."
Kind of hoping too. Wishful thinking it seems. Now feeling a bit irked again even though it's over. It may be uncharitable to say so, but sometimes it seems like the SEC isn't very bright.
I also got thinking about how easily the FDA was manipulated for nefarious purposes.
https://www.statnews.com/2015/09/26/biotech-exec-martin-shkreli-has-history-of-tough-tactics/
"Four years ago, Shkreli asked the Food and Drug Administration to reject a new type of cancer diagnostic from a small drug maker called Navidea Biopharmaceuticals. He simultaneously — and very publicly — bet against the company’s stock. He had earlier tried a similar tactic against another company, MannKind Corp., that was developing an inhalable insulin.
The moves caused Navidea’s value to plummet at the time, threatening to hurt the company’s ability to prepare for the launch of the product.
Ultimately, the FDA approved the diagnostic, which some physicians now see as a valuable medical tool — and one that patients might not have had access to if Shkreli had succeeded.
“It was like a frivolous lawsuit that bottlenecks the system and threatens progress,” said Dr. Anne Wallace, a breast cancer surgeon at the University of California, San Diego, who ran clinical trials for Navidea’s diagnostic. “This sort of tactic can ruin science.” "
So who started this, baiting the SEC? Did Anavex get to face their accusors? Or was some person in a Shkreli or otherwise diabolical mindset simply able make an anonymous phone call or something, screeching wild accusations about Anavex? Seems like the SEC was manipulated into investigating the victim instead of the perpetrator. Besides compelling the SEC to waste resources on a wild goose chase, as a result of false accusation, news of the secretive investigation along with rumor mongering of presumed guilt, serious damage was inflicted on the company and its shareholders. No coincidence that the scheme facilitated the profits of short sellers.
There are penalties for making a fraudulant complaint or false report to the police. Wonder if anything like that exists for the SEC.
0.59 !
Phew! Nice little thrill there for a minute.
Kind of like an exploding fireworks skyrocket.
Boom! tinkle tinkle tinkle
Some poor fellow probably put in a market order for that 30k, caught the MM off guard.
Still it shows actual resistance is getting pretty thin up above.
He'll get it back.
Actually I don't like these kinds of spikes - compresses the rest of the chart for a while (at least with candles)...
Nice to see things perking up in the mmj space. High time for here especially.
re: "She should be left to post as she sees fit.
Indeed. Certain posters were starting to sound almost like stalkers. I wouldn't blame her if she was starting to regret posting too much personal information to begin with.
re: "I may diversify on the next run, but I am not sure."
It definitely helps to diversify a little. It can mean the difference between being merely irked or totally stressed out. Anavex right now is like a lot of stocks that suffer a temporary misfortune. e.g. Ford, but eventually pull out of it. There was a period when things looked pretty dire for the domestic auto industry. Being a GM fan of sorts, I didn't share my cousin's faith in Ford, but what do you know. Sometimes a little faith (along with knowledge) can really pay off. So I missed out on Ford, oh well.
re: "...since we are on the outside it stresses us out the most"
I've been missing too much of the good summer weather on stocks. I find something like mowing the lawn or painting (and by that I mean something like wall painting) to be calming for stress. Something that doesn't require a lot of thinking, you can see progress as you go, and then get to experience a certain amount of satisfaction when you're done.
I suppose that could also include housework but no need to go to extremes here. :)
Now to get the deck back on my vintage lawn tractor. Something else to dote on besides stocks helps. btw, Kevlar belts are virtually indestructible compared to regular rubber v-belts, if you ever find yourself sprucing up something that uses v-belts.
re;"...otherwise, the market will assume straight dilution. "
I think that there is a knee-jerk misconception about "dilution".
It's considered undesirable when a company has positive earnings because earnings per share go down. However, in an exploration or development company with negative earnings, the loss per share also moves closer to zero. In other words, it moves the earnings per share number in a positive direction.
The money from selling the shares immediately adds to the tangible book value. For example, if the book value is .32 with $10M, another $10M raise from equity sale doubles the book value to .64
Tangible book value, physical assests aren't really meaningful for this kind of company. Intangibles and "good will" have huge relative value but unfortuneatly are subject to the current state of psychological warfare going on at any given point in time. :)
If the money is used to advance to profitability, say to fund a bankable feasibility study with expected positive outcome in the case of a mining co. or a mandantory trial with expected positive outcome in the case of a bio-tech, it's a good way to go. imo
A lot of development stage companies have a huge debt overhang. Anavex has very miniscule debt. They have also, amazingly held the share count virtually constant at 36 million shares for a remarkably long time. Considering all the milestones reached, that's a credit to shrewd and frugal management.
fwiw, I would be ok with an equity raise.
re: "45-60gr per plant is terrible. I don't see how it could be that low."
I didn't look real extensively online but it seems relatively hard to find much on bud vs. whole plant yields.
Also are we talking dry weight?
"About 75% of the fresh weight is moisture that is lost in the drying process..."
Looks like 18% to 28% proportion of "buds"...
Actually 45-60g seems to be an average , but most all of the articles I've perused so far are about home grows....
That figure looks to be an estimate, they haven't harvested yet. Probably conservative just like when we run financial projections.
I don't think yield per plant is a concern unless they run out of growing space - not a problem here. Also there is probably an optimum cost-to-yield point on the yield curve. For example, a point of diminishing returns. e.g. it might cost 50% additional of the total cost of growing up to that point to get a few more grams. Probably worth it for a home grower with a couple of plants in a limited space, but we are talking a commercial operation here with beaucoup space, so, different parameters.
Anyway, I wouldn't worry. Their goal is to be a low cost producer. They've got experts developing the set-up. We can speculate about things while we're waiting but I wouldn't presume to know more about it than they do. I'm very confident that they will win at being highly competitive in this rapidly expanding market.
I had started monthly countdown to revenues a while back...
Anyway, won't be long now :)
re:"Seems like that number is a bit low, I would have thought the plants should have a higher yield....."
Probably a pound counting the lower leaves, but they are not desirable for the primary market as they lack the flavor of the flowers (buds) which are prized.
Suppose that they could eventually be sold (at a discount) to make oils and such.
Not an expert but I'm pretty sure it's a very good reported yield from the bud standpoint.
re:" Feuerstein absolutely hates Favus (he publicly said so in his TheStreet.com article) and wants revenge, that is why Feuerstein has been so desperate to bring down AVXL. Feuerstein wants personal revenge!"
Wow! That makes terrific sense.
The sheer venom in his articles go way beyond the usual criticism one normally expects in a short thesis. It's like there is a tantrum quality. Irrational. I couldn't figure out why. That explains a lot.
re: "People Please read post 73047 . Mm's and hedge funds are short 4 1/2 million shares and just a day to cover . They are playing serious games now and if we panic sell it's playing right into their hands . Holding shares will force them to raise the pps in order to cover "
We're back to low volume days with few actual sellers. Actual days to cover are a lot higher than that estimate which assumes being able to buy a high volume day's entire volume.
What if they blew the money and can't cover. What would one do? Maybe get your MM associate to do another naked share power dump. Then hope the negative posters trying to wear down investors can finally get them to capitulate. I half expect this would be tied to another starting pistol, like, say, earnings report. The July 27 1:00pm naked share power dump's purpose was to tank the share price more so than profit, so probably most of the stopped-out investors shares shaken loose would have gone to cover the naked shorts on the way down, leaving most of the regular shorted shares sold to investors on the way up still open.
A lot of those millions of shares were borrowed near the top at 40% interest. In aggregate it's costing thousands of dollars per day to keep those short positions open.
It costs us nothing to hold our shares. Time is on our side.