We are in the early stages of reversing a quarter of a century downtrend! 45/50 cents is a great point of support, which I think will hold, on the weekly chart. The .73 peak will be taken out soon in my opinion. Good luck to all.

YEEHAW!!!

This is what I posted on 03/28/24. My opinion has not changed since then!

"I’ve been always in the “glass half full” camp on this one. I think that it is actually 90-95% full. I’ve been hoping that we get out of the .20-.35 price channel for a while but we have been stuck in that “Hotel California“ range for now. Hopefully we will move out of the channel soon. In all fairness this is a very complex project and the fact that they have managed it fairly well, considering all the headwinds so far, has been quite an achievement in my opinion. Some here get impatient at times, understandably, due to the delays. But I think in the long haul the genuine longs will be rewarded. Good luck to all."

Seems like DOE is waiting for MARAD to resolve.

"Tolling" :
https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2024-05/Delfin%20LNG%20-%20Notice%20Tolling%20Expiration%20of%20nFTA%20Order_05.31.24.pdf

" Yet, Delfin is not submitting a new application to MARAD, which would require preparation of a new EIS from scratch and then a decision within that statutory timeline: rather, Delfin is amending an already conditionally approved application, with supplemental NEPA review of the prior FEIS. In Delfin’s opinion, that supplemental review will confirm the conclusions of the EA submitted to MARAD over a year ago, which demonstrated reduced impacts compared to the prior FEIS. Therefore, Delfin remains hopeful that it may still obtain its DWPA license this calendar year, though admittedly almost certainly not until near the end of the year. "

https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2024-05/Delfin%20Response%20to%20comments%20on%20DOE%20Extension%20Request%20%2851424%20FINAL%29.pdf

Sierra motion was just posted. Not too concerned as the same Modus Operandi in every application they oppose it seems. Look at the attack they launched on the Corpus Christi Project here:
https://www.energy.gov/fecm/articles/corpus-christi-liquefaction-llc-ccl-midscale-8-9-llc-and-cheniere-marketing-llc-ccl
, of note is that the application in the link was approved with order granting posted on 7/19/2023, even before the Answer in Opposition was posted, 7/24/2024 (based on the docket) with the application getting partial approval within 12 days.

Enbridge’s Energy Infrastructure Projects pamphlet was updated on March 18, 2024 (cover page), and available publicly via the link I listed before. MARAD issued its letter on April 17, 2024, a month later. MARAD, with little due diligence, could have discovered the true ownership facts but it appears that it didn’t. The Judges sitting on the bench in the Fifth Circuit in LOUISIANA are definitely not the Biden Administration, and they may and probably will, look at these facts and circumstance differently.

Smells like grounds for an Extraordinary Writ. Enbridge owns 5.77% of Delfin not "Delphin" lol lol. It definitely looks like a typo in their letter as they also claim ownership here: https://www.enbridge.com/~/media/Enb/Documents/Factsheets/FS_EnergyInfrastructureProjects.pdf?la=en (p.22 of 27). But seriously the fact that they confirm ownership, along with other factors, might just be the legal grounds for the Extraordinary Writ , NOT a lawsuit, claiming that the MARAD's letter/decision was arbitrary and capricious and based on wrong facts! GLTA!

"The European Commission is considering sanctions against Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG), according to two EU diplomats, a move that would mark the first time Brussels has dared to go after Moscow's gas sector."

"Sanctions on Russian gas from the Yamal LNG project would cause prices to spike and profit global gas sellers"


https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/totalenergies-chief-calls-potential-eu-sanctions-russian-lng-financial-boon-2024-04-26/

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-weighs-sanctions-on-russian-liquefied-natural-gas/#:~:text=Brussels%20hasn't%20yet%20gone%20after%20Moscow's%20gas%20sector.&text=The%20European%20Commission%20is%20considering,go%20after%20Moscow's%20gas%20sector.

https://fossil.energy.gov/ng_regulation/delfin-lng-llc-fe-dkt-13-147-lng-nfta

Energy.gov site just listed another letter of support. This time from Centrica!

Hopefully Delfin management is following this same logic regarding the RM and is also moving expeditiously to move the project forward either through option 3 or 4 ( which I mentioned before). The new Delfin support letter that Chesapeake has filed with DOE, which is still not accessible, and the impact of the senators’ letter, the Devon letter, and now Chesapeake letter on DOE decision will hopefully result in DOE extension and then a potential RM in the best case scenario. Regarding the price dynamics the key is what fraction of the sub-penny shares acquired before Dec 2017 are still being held and not sold after the multiple mini rallies we have had since Jan 2018. The three year volume profile of TGLO has a POC of around .20 which would be the fair value at which we had been sitting at for some time while the 15 year POC value is basically par value (.005)! Since we have not had high volume selling pressure I assume a lot of the very early sub-penny holders have already existed in previous mini rallies or are not selling! Hard to predict the price dynamics but so far the lack of high volume selloff is very encouraging for strategic longs. Any positive surprise news may quickly push us back over .20 if the above scenario is valid. Finally, all of this is my hypothetical analysis and I'm in no way shape or form making a recommendation to buy hold or sell! GLTA

Here are more details on OPTION 4 for people who are interested:

“To justify the granting of any such writ, the petition must show that the writ will be in aid of the Court's appellate jurisdiction, that exceptional circumstances warrant the exercise of the Court's discretionary powers, and that adequate relief cannot be obtained in any other form or from any other court.” (https://www.law.cornell.edu/rules/supct/rule_20)

These are exceptional circumstances, as required, as here there was a decision by an agency(MARAD), which decision is jeopardizing a project with a so far 100M investment with a current expected revenue of 19B. There is no adequate remedy at law, or any other form, here as by the time a lawsuit is filed and heard, and/or an amended application is filed and processed the DOE decision, the SPAs, and the shipyard space, and the entire project may get scrapped. This is an exceptional circumstance justifying an Extraordinary Writ.

Thanks for your support. Meanwhile here is a possible fourth option for a speedy resolution; filing an Extraordinary Writ of Mandamus/Mandate, moving to the head of line in terms of timing as compared to a regular appeal. You can look at the procedure in the following link for the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit (See Attached pages13-15).

http://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/docs/default-source/forms-and-documents---clerks-office/documents/practitionersguide.pdf#page13

As I mentioned over my last couple of posts the third option of requesting a meeting with MARAD may turn things around (post #50619). Specially if FID and Merger happen prior to the meeting. This will make ownership fall into the hands of a U.S. based publicly traded company in addition to making financing more transparent and much easier in either equity or debt scenarios thereby alleviating most of the issues MARAD raised. That only leaves the technical changes which apparently are more environmentally friendly and less subject to attack. To this we can add the senators' support, some of whom are required to receive progress reports on the meeting by code. GLTA

The are a lot of smart people on this board and I’m sure they can connect the dots and reach their own conclusions in light of this third option for Delfin to expedite/resolve the issue. GLTA

That was not the main point of my post. My post discussed a possible third alternative, to a lawsuit or filing an amended application, wherein this issue may get resolved in a timely fashion, before the DOE expiration, specially given that the meeting may have to be reported to the ranking member senator Cruz.

Enjoy your drink. To be clear I said they have the right to a meeting and not an administrative hearing. The latter being a much more involved and time consuming process.

Let's hope so.

33 U.S.C. § 1504(d) and (d)(4) relates to and governs (d) only. I was referencing 33 U.S.C. § 1504(k)(1-5).

Interested to get thoughts on this:

Comments have been made about Delfin filing a lawsuit which could potentially drag for a long time. Asking for an administrative remedy is a much more expeditious way to potentially resolve things.

Here is the link to the code section outlining the relevant procedure:

https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=granuleid:USC-prelim-title33-section1504&num=0&edition=prelim

Briefly, here is my interpretation :

33 USC 1503, specially (c) & (e), defines applicable deadlines subject to the administrative remedies outlined in 33 USC 1504. It looks like Delfin is entitled to a meeting within 30 days of submitting a request, and it also looks like MARAD is required to report progress to the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation of the Senate, amongst other committees.

Senator Cruz seems to be the ranking member on that committee:

https://www.cruz.senate.gov/about/committee-assignments



Finally a thought regarding the real % ownership of TGLO by Delfin:

Between 2015, when Delfin filed the first paperwork with FERC, and Dec 2017 when Delfin officially acquired 71% of TGLO there were three peaks of unusual volume adding up to around 93M! Hard to know what fraction of those trades ended up in new hands and what fraction is still remaining in those hands. GLTA

I agree with that analysis as well. Under the circumstances FID/RM would be their best bet. My bet is the DOE will approve the extension. Even if this is a battle of egos and a tit for tat they half closed one door but will keep the other one open! since the power balance is fairly even here! If that is the case and the float is also mostly locked then we might actually see NO major negative price shakeout or even some serious buying from people that are betting on a fast track RM!, as a reaction to the "bad" news. No one knows but that would be interesting. Of course all of this is speculation and I'm , in no way shape or form, suggesting to buy or sell. It is just my analysis.

I agree with that analysis as well. Under the circumstances FID/RM would be their best bet. My bet is the DOE will approve the extension. Even if this is a battle of egos and a tit for tat they half closed one door but will keep the other one open! since the power balance is fairly even here! If that is the case and the float is also mostly locked then we might actually see NO major negative price shakeout or even some serious buying from people that are betting on a fast track RM!, as a reaction to the "bad" news. No one knows but that would be interesting. Of course all of this is speculation and I'm , in no way shape or form, suggesting to buy or sell. It is just my analysis.

"I think if they get the DOE extension and FID/Merge that would address the ownership and financing concerns MARAD raised and that only leaves the design updates etc."

I agree, and also It is interesting, and of note, that Devon and the senators wrote to the DOE only two days before this letter was issued. Maybe coincidence, or probably that all parties were fully aware of the MARAD issue, and have the updated info ready to go, and focused on getting the extension granted by DOE. It is also of note that they asked for a firm 9 month, not 12 months, do or die from the DOE well after the July and September meetings with MARAD (per the MARAD letter reference to said meetings). If it was only Delfin's management maybe they didn’t know, but Latham Watkins, the senators, Devon and everyone else who got and stayed involved after July 2023 must have known better. I think if they get the DOE extension and FID/Merge that would address the ownership and financing concerns MARAD raised and that only leaves the design updates etc.

If you were a CEO of an EU company with heavy reliance on LNG where would you place your long term LNG supply bet!? Delfin LNG, Yamal LNG, or Qatar LNG !?

“European LNG imports in 2024 totaled 33.65 million mt as of April 9, according to data from S&P Global. Of this total, 51% originated from the US, followed by around 16% from Russia; 10% from Algeria and 8% from Qatar. Notably, 4% arrived from Nigeria.”


“European policymakers have grappled with the prospect of a complete cessation in both Russian pipeline and LNG since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022”

“Sources said that in a scenario where Russian LNG to Europe would be completely phased out, the Continent would continue to rely on the US and Qatar as well as other emerging LNG markets for more imports.”


https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/041024-europe-is-set-to-continue-to-rely-on-russian-lng-in-short-term#:~:text=European%20LNG%20imports%20in%202024,Algeria%20and%208%25%20from%20Qatar.


You might argue that:

“EU turns a blind eye to 21% of Russian LNG flowing through its terminals”

https://ieefa.org/resources/eu-turns-blind-eye-21-russian-lng-flowing-through-its-terminals

But that is short term. Long term, It is very reasonable to speculate that there are a lot of companies in the EU that prefer long term contracts with USA rather than Russia or Qatar, due to the latter’s high geopolitical risks. Our most challenging risk here so far has only been of a regulatory nature. Once we clear the last regulatory hurdle it is very likely that there will be a flurry of activity by EU companies to secure more long term contracts with Delfin!
I’m betting on that and not selling a single share! GLTA

Hard to make exact price predictions. Also, hard to predict price reaction to news, depending on how much of the news is already baked into the chart among many other factors. But I think .38 sounds fair when we get permit approval. Personally, I will be happy with a .30 floor and then moving outside the main .2-.35 channel. I’m in no hurry but naturally the sooner the better!

It has breached .30 a few times in the past months but all ended up being head fakes. This time I'm more hopeful but we need to breach .30 and stay above/test that on a weekly! Then we might have a nice .30 floor in place. GLTA

Under the 2010 Dodd–Frank Act, spoofing is defined as "the illegal practice of bidding or offering with intent to cancel before execution." Spoofing can be used with layering algorithms and front-running, activities which are also illegal.

Hard to know how much of that stuff is going on here, or anywhere in general, but it is something to be aware of!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spoofing_(finance)#:~:text=Under%20the%202010%20Dodd%E2%80%93Frank,activities%20which%20are%20also%20illegal.

There is some logic to your concern but if you consider the “half full” part of the glass there is also many indications that the letter is a positive move to push the project through rather than a sign of desperation. If it was just Delfin involved in this project your concern would carry more weight but remember there are many many other heavyweights aligned with Delfin now and among all the competitors Delfin is the least damaging to the environment and can provide a strategically safe route to send energy to the EU. All these factors considered, I see the letter as a sign of strength rather than weakness. GLTA

Wondering whether the frantic buying, albeit low volume, this morning was linked to the release of the letter. We'll find out tomorrow whether we'll get more buy volume. Hopefully we'll get out of the .20-.35 “Hotel California” channel soon. GLTA

Tend to agree with your analysis. Regarding the price action, I've also been surprised that we have not broken the .30-.35 ceiling already, a scenario I've been anticipating for the past few months! Having intermediate to long term time frame in mind, I would not even hesitate to buy above .30, if we can establish that level as support and test it! But that is just my opinion and I don't recommend any buy or sell points on this board to anyone! I'm sure we are going to hit some resistance around those levels anyway either by MM/technical traders or really early shareholders who got in at a penny or less! Time will show if there will be enough buy volume to push us through those levels this time around. I'm betting that the third time's a charm! ( actually may be 4th or 5th! lost track, LOL, but you get the idea!) Good luck to all.

"Delfin also is engaged in continuing negotiations with other potential customers for
additional LNG offtake agreements, focusing largely on its second and third FLNGVs."

"Delfin continues to await its final Deepwater Port License from MARAD and remains confident that it will be issued very soon. " Let's hope so!

Semi-annual report is out. LOL, they have a typo in section c. 2004 instead of 2024!

https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2024-04/Delfin%204_1_2024%20DOE%20Progress%20Report%20%28Final%29%20%28002%29.pdf

This letter is interesting. Not sure if anyone else has seen/posted this. To me it shows that there has been extensive back and forth on the license issuance with MARAD and that they weren’t just blowing smoke in the extension application to DOE. Also their semi-annual reports have always been received by DOE between March 30 and April 1. Maybe the delayed posting is to announce/include the license? or is it just a processing lag? Also of note is the address on the letterhead which is the address for AVOCET LNG LLC!! That is open to interpretation/speculation but I do not want to make much of that at the moment.

https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2024-03/Attachment%202_Part%201%20Delfin%20Response%20to%20MARAD%2007April2023.pdf

“What Should Traders Pay Attention To?
Traders should pay more attention to time and sales over level 2 screens since those are actual trades versus the “intent” of trades. When you see a level 2 screen gyrating violently as bid/ask spreads gyrate wildly, but very few trades get posted on time and sales, it’s a sign of spoof attempts or manipulation. Many traders believe that market makers love to intentionally trigger knee jerk and panic reactions.”

Not hard to imagine that similar dynamics might be at play in the message boards!! Not singling out any one post or comment but in general! I’m definitely holding on to my shares.


https://centerpointsecurities.com/market-makers/#:~:text=There%20are%20three%20primary%20types,%3A%20retail%2C%20institutional%20and%20wholesale.

That is true to an extent but it is not the whole picture. Delfin’s bread and butter is the price differential between US/Europe/Asia, so in that sense cheaper US prices is better. But you would not want the US price to drop too low either since that would portend systemic demand destruction, “canary in the coal mine scenario!”. I would think around 3 dollars is a good/sustainable price/compromise.

This address seems to be an executive suite with many tenants and the below link seems more relevant to the inquiry here as it shows Tangerine Street LLC with Michael S. Egan indicated as manager. On a side note I was traveling through Oslo last year and I stopped by Delfin's office which also happens to be an executive suite!

https://search.sunbiz.org/Inquiry/CorporationSearch/SearchResultDetail?inquirytype=EntityName&directionType=CurrentList&searchNameOrder=TANGERINEAVENUE%20L080000582060&aggregateId=flal-l08000058206-2b754e8b-8425-4aa0-95f2-85a245d69aec&searchTerm=TANGERINE%20CORP&listNameOrder=TANGERINE%204844110