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So you are saying the downside risk is greater than the upside potential.
That’s like giving 40 to 1 odds on Secretariat to win the Triple Crown.
Carl, expect to see the annual proxy later this week or early next. That is mostly about compensation and things that require shareholders to vote upon at the ASM. Shortly thereafter, the annual stock option grants (Form 4) should be filed with the SEC. While we are still in the dark about some of their accomplishments, the BOD and the Compensation Committee members are well aware of everything.
Frobinso,
I also felt Lebby seemed to downplay the tech transfer sales prong. My interpretation comes from more than yesterday’s presentation. They have always said their go to market strategy needed to be flexible. As they gained more experience negotiating agreements, the differences between a licensing agreement and a technology transfer agreement became blurred. They are essentially the same when referring to foundries whether independent or vertical.
Another thought I had was the comment about the PULL feeling more like they were being dragged along by the data centers. If they are being dragged or pulled, then the holdup in signing agreements should be caused by LW insisting on better terms. Then, there have been the comments by Lebby that reliability remains on the table meaning that more thorough test data is the holdup. That implies the data centers are the holdup.
My conclusion is that the data centers are pressuring Lightwave to speed up the reliability data sets so they can get going updating their data centers. Lebby said something to the effect that “you take out the existing transceiver and plug in a new one with a V8 engine.” He has said this on a number of occasions. Sounds like the upgrade would take a few days once the transceivers have been delivered to the data center. Producing a few million transceivers takes at least six months. I understand the urgency today because the data centers won’t start receiving the benefits of the upgrade until 2025 if the data sets were completed today.
I am looking forward to the ASM to get any updated unit volume guidance.
Proto, your summary was very accurate. I hope the replay gets posted on YouTube as a stand alone presentation. Sure makes it easier to forward to my 107 investors that now own over a million shares. All but one red flag has been burned. The last one could go up in flames any day now.
Lightwave Logic’s partners are starting to sing! MACOM joins the list. Synopsis Photonics Solutions started it. OFC was bigger than the low information naysayers know!
Proto,
I don't believe I have ever seen a partner of Global Foundries post an article praising Lightwave Logic's performance results of their polymer PICs on their LinkedIn page. I wonder why they did that?
Your scorecard is correct, but you need to acknowledge the progress with the foundries on 200mm and the 200g per lane performance of LW’s PIC design. The 200g is unassisted and the one volt is real.
The stock price reflects the collective wisdom of the investment community. That includes longs and shorts. This is a news driven stock.
In my almost three years of ownership, I don’t recall reading any showstopper news from a credible source. I have read a lot projected showstopper prognostications, but every one of them have proven false.
I think we are close to independent validation.
Proto,
This is the post where Tedpeele blames YOU for his sub $2 prediction not coming true. If I recall correctly, he stated that the stock was headed to below $2 until Proto started posting all that hype (from Bard) about the foundries Lightwave was working with to mass produce their PIC designs.
Now it sounds as if Lebby called Google and reminded them of the NDAs and told them to scrub their data to comply.
Yet you are hanging in there. The short sellers want you to give up and sell. I think you have decided not to sell.
A four year licensing agreement or a technology transfer agreement is different than a single transaction sale regardless of the size. The company could announce either if the goal is to announce everything that is a “first”.
I would say that IF that red circle around direct sales means we are capable of taking orders, then Lebby will have delivered a milestone ahead of schedule. From what I can tell, we are ahead of the transceiver assemblers, but that is the easiest step in the process. Coming soon: direct sales!
Don’t expect the company to announce any direct sales shipments. What company does that???
The 2nd quarter report could surprise unless we can wrench away some info at the ASM.
I think you are exactly right. The sad thing is that when licensees start signing up and the stock does go to $20, they will sell out at a respectable profit and then complain they missed out on the next 100 points.
Why haven’t you sold out?
So they offered human sacrifices to the Sun god. There is plenty of evidence that happened.
Imagine what humans thought about this 10,000 years ago and 3,000 years and just 700 years ago.
I am ready to drive to Indianapolis from Chicago depending on the weather. Trouble is 50,000 other cars are thinking the same thing.
Agree! The indexes are in correction mode. Nothing wrong with LW in particular. Even a small deal would be enough to create a bias to the buy side.
This information was gained by our guy with boots in the ground in San Francisco last fall. At the ASM you will meet our guy who spoke directly with PHIX. Chances are this individual should not have said they were working with LW.
Why do you think more and more investors are jumping ship? I don’t see that at all. Everyone in my group has been adding so far this year. I am talking over 100,000 shares added this year.
What is important to us? After working with several foundries for about three years, Lightwave Logic has taught them how to produce their proprietary PIC on 200mm wafers. The bears, including yourself, didn’t think that was possible! We now have the capability to produce our industry leading 800g PIC in volume.
The next announcement will be about the multiple packaging partners, one of which is confirmed to be PHIX Packaging. The news flow is increasing and the milestones are being achieved.
Short interest is down by over 2.5 million shares since the peak. Those negative investors are the ones jumping ship because they see the progress being achieved and so does the industry. The short thesis has lost every argument put forth and there is no longer any potential profit to be gained. The smart shorts have been covering. It hasn’t been difficult to cover because the company has been overly excited and traders have been giving the shorts the shares they need to cover. Where do you fit as a short seller? Are you trying to cover or are you shorting more?
Yes, I noticed that as well. There is a reason for the change. The new red circle around the direct sales prong is the clue!
There really wasn’t any other option for this great technology to survive.
As I understand it, SilOrix was unable to come to terms with Lightwave Logic and went to NLM for polymer material. Polymer technology is being recognized and that helps. Patents are important, but economic damages need to be identified before there is a case.
1. Power and Cost Savings Innovations: We saw several significant network architecture advancements to reduce power consumption and operational costs. Arista Networks's exploration of LPO and LRO, thus removing DSPs, suggests savings of 25% -40%. On the materials front, several companies
demonstrated their ability to scale effectively:
Lithium Niobate from HyperLight, Liobate or Ori-Chip Optoelectronics Technology Co. Itd., Polymer from Lightwave Logic, Inc. logic, NLM Photonics or Sylorix, Plasmonics from Polariton Technologies Ltd., or BTO from Lumiphase.
People always ask me who will win. My reply is usually, " Those who can scale reliably." As shown by Hong Liu from Google at the Executive Forum, we also need more intelligent optical switches. Companies like iPronics Programmable Photonics or Lightmatter are already making an impact.
2.Is Hollow Fiber a thing?
At OFC we saw OFS and IXBlue Photonics (now
Exail) bringing developments on this.
3. Live demos and OFCnet: It was the year of
200G/lane, and companies like LightwaveLogic, Infinera, and NewPhotonics demonstrated 200G transmission.
Or it is the first in a series
The bearish case has been losing each point one by one. The classic is “since they have not had any sales, customers, or products for the last 20 years”, they never will. Whenever any naysayer posts this argument, I give them a huge eye roll. I wish they could see it.
I had an acquaintance at Cameron & Associates years ago and they were responsible for the press releases. Can’t say MZ has the same responsibility, but I would guess they do.
I wasn’t lol at you, but MZ. I wrote Luke and they fixed it on the web page, but it was tooooo late!
Lebby has referred to the first licensing deal as a template for those agreements that follow. I am having a hard time thinking an agreement with Polariton would look anything like an agreement with Google.
With Polariton, I would think LW had to coerce Polariton to agree to larger volume minimums over the four year period. With Google, I would think Google would have to get LW to commit to larger volumes over the four year template.
For Google, time is money! The faster they can replace the pluggable transceivers in all of their data centers the better. X can probably figure that out. Thousands of PICs per 200mm wafer with extremely high yields are clues we know about. 25 wafers per foup if I recall correctly. We don’t know how fast PHIX can package them. Of course, we have multiple foundries and multiple packaging partners and we have been working on all of this for the last three years. I love it when a plan comes together (Hannibal Smith)!
This message board has known about this patent grant for over a month now. Of course the Perkinamine formulation utilizing diamondoid has been in use at the foundries while under patent pending status and NDA.
One has to wonder why the company waited until now to issue a PR. Could there be a cadence of announcements coming? How about tomorrow or next week? Stay tuned.
I agree! The timing is perfect.
On the other hand, if the overall market corrects by say 20%, then these index funds will have to sell. That is the risk here! Managed funds need to be buying on the fundamentals of the business to offset any selling by index funds. The fundamentals and the technology will win over the long term.
The timing of all of these forces is key. That is looking very good now.
I believe KCCO found a white paper in which it was clear that Lightwave Logic solved a showstopper temperature control problem that Ayer Labs encountered. So all of those major investors have knowledge of LWLG and what they did for their investment in Ayer.
The short thesis has the worst risk/reward ratio I have ever seen in my 50 years of investing.
The first order could be for millions, not hundreds! “That could very well be the case, answered Dr Lebby.” May 25, 2023
The MZ Group needs to bring in new managed funds.
I am thinking of Unignoring Adam/Ted just to read how they are going to spin this one!
There is no Lightwave Logic block of rooms at a discount. Remember this is a resort hotel with a golf course and more. It is sold out. The Homewood Suites address is 199 Inverness Rd West. The ASM is 200 IRW.
I look forward to meeting you.
I can assure you and everyone else that will not be the case this year. There will be a record attendance at the ASM. The hotel is sold out already and the Homewood Suites across the street is filling up fast.
Me too! In fact, I scrolled through a lot of names and ignored several more who make an effort to spread misinformation.
BASF never got credit either