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Coupon or not…..Daxxify sales weren’t great. It’s a disappointing report. And since I’m long shares, I’m not happy about it.
Evolus is way outperforming peers. I continue to see their traction and so I’m staying very long in EOLS.
“Trending to the low end of the range”…….
That’s about $2 million more in revenue than I thought. Don’t seem to be following the Botox slowdown that Abbvie reported :)
Not sure why that’s an issue. It’s been addressed so many times before. That was a fantastic report.
Always good posts and info soma. In my circles (and I own practices), I am not seeing adoption of Daxxify. I asked another well known owner in my area what she is seeing and she said:
“ The daxxify buzz kind of died. I haven’t heard or seen anything on the groups good or bad. Revance has “restructured” and let go of some positions recently.”
So….i think it depends who you ask. It’s no secret that their sales force has been upended. And the relationships that take time to build have stalled. I saw something similar a few years ago with the lawsuit against Evolus. Sales staff got turned upside down when they were essentially frozen from doing business. And so it took a long time to rebuild that.
I don’t hear people/patients asking for Daxxify yet either. You can call me some shill for another toxin company but this is the truth. And the things I have said the past couple years have been pretty accurate.
I’m still long some shares around $5.50 FWIW
No need for Phase 3. They are aesthetic only. No need for that cost. And I don’t think they do a frontalis study.
Really good info. And yes….this is why Evolus split from Aeon years ago (Aeon has therapeutic with same toxin). And because Evolus is aesthetic only, they can do things a bit different (pricing, marketing, etc)
That’s the bullish way of looking at it. They blew their best chance. Now it’s crawling their way back and TBD how long it’ll take.
Not easy to get those burned accounts back. Last Q conf call talked about that. And it’s a small community so word gets around. Even the ones that didn’t get burned know the ones that did and dont like how things played out.
Just focus on what he’s saying about RVNC and therapeutics. He’s giving you valuable info IMO.
I’m not a therapeutics expert, but “formulary”, non-formulary”, prior authorization, etc are critical to understanding adoption of Daxxify. If a patient has to show they have tried other drugs first for the ins company to cover them, it will make it much more difficult. These are the “little” things that are actually “big” things.
Welcome to this board mrwilson. If you say anything out of line of the most bullish thinking, you will be tarred and feathered.
What you are saying about insurance companies is the most critical part of this IMO. J Code, formulary, non-formulary, etc…..that’s really all that matters in therapeutic. Have to figure out where Daxxify stands on the pecking order. If a patient and doctor have to show that they have tried other toxins first in order to be covered, the road to Daxxify adoption will take longer. Whoever can provide that information for the top insurance companies would do everyone here a huge favor (I apologize if someone has…..I haven’t read all msgs)
As far as aesthetic goes, I still don’t see much traction. Many practices I know of either felt burned during launch and/or had duration/injection issues... and the stink is still there. Just drastically slashing prices doesn’t immediately get them back in the water. It’ll take time.
I am still long a few shares at $5.50.
I’ve wanted EOLS to do a secondary and I know a couple institutions have been wanting them to do the same….rather than draw down the debt. Retail didn’t get any of this deal. Just top holders….some of whom had been encouraging them to do it. (Someone knew last week as you can tell from that intraday move). Vanguard, Blackrock in on name now. That should be the end of raising equity indefinitely.
I could see practices shifting to Jeuveau a year ago and every time Botox raised prices, another practice called. Say what you want about it, the product is so easy for injectors to switch to. That’s what I saw awhile ago. And that is a key reason I invested heavily in it. Doesn’t mean the injectors are “lazy” or “greedy”. It’s just ease of business and profitability. That filler line up has people talking too.
They shifted their marketing to be younger, cooler, edgy, fun. It’s really caught on. And they are aesthetic only so they can do things differently. And frankly, I learned this lesson: (which I have applied to Daxxify)…….Hype is always too high at first, disappoints, gets branded as inferior, current providers have imbedded relationships and can be swayed by those companies, eventually with pricing and experience the practices come back little by little, and the reputation of product recovers. That’s the cycle I see happening with Daxxify. So still a long ways to go. But at $6.00, risk reward could be really good.
Eventually practices will catch on with Daxxify and it will find its place. I’ve said this for awhile….it will take longer than bulls think. You are fighting well established players (Abbvie) and a toxin that needs to be injected differently.
Therapeutic will be Daxxify’s best home.
Also….Evolus mgmt is much better. Former Chief Med Officer at Allergan and former Head of Aesthetics at Allergan running the company. They know toxin and fillers better than anyone.
Mark Foley….different story.
One buyer or seller can move that name quickly. Looks a seller came in with few bids. I had an order I forgot about that got filled at $13.15. They had pre-announced great earnings
Daxxify pricing:
$420 for 10 vials
$335 for 25 vials
$295 for 50 vials
$285 for 100 vials
$275 for 150 vials
First time order 30 vials @ $250
Of course Revance rep said they are picking up steam. Mostly for accounts that want a cheaper tox and are doing “regular” dosing instead of “double” dosing. Now….before some of you people on this board freak out about the term “double dosing”, that’s what the rep said. So relax :)
Not seeing purchases in my circles. Had mtg with a non-tox rep who knows very well and says a couple practices complained about the injections hurting and didn’t get the duration as promised.
With new pricing, we’ll see.
I’m still long some shares.
Analyst asking Foley how to “Repair relationships” several times. Like I’ve said many times….you get one shot (pun intended). With the practice and with the patient. “Repairing” takes a long time….most likely a couple years.
The only things Foley did right was to sell shares last year and fix the rate on the debt. I believe he will draw down the debt
You don’t raise at $6 unless you need to. There is no good way to spin this.
Good thing I sold 75% of my position last week after it popped 30%. There is no good way to spin raising at these levels.
We were part of PrevU, beginning Dec 2022. Our experience was mixed. Those who have followed for awhile know what I shared. Gotta be “wowed” to shift to another toxin, especially one that is trickier to inject (and I have been mocked on this board that our injectors aren’t great etc etc….we have some of the top injectors around that train many others). For good reason, we were chosen for PrevU. We just weren’t wowed. Not bad. Not great. And my point isn’t to say that Daxxify isn’t a good toxin. Just gonna work for some and not others (just like the other toxins).
Let me give another example. A couple years ago, I sat with an owner of a very successful Medspa about 30 miles from us. I asked her about her product mix and wondered why she didn’t start using Jeuveau or other products that seemed to make more sense financially than those offered by Allergan. She actually told me that she doesn’t even use Juvederm filler on her own face. But that carrying mostly Allergan products was just “easier” and less hassle for her business. Every time I hear someone on this board comment about how injectors or owners are greedy or lazy, I think that they aren’t the ones operating a business or writing the checks. It’s not always $. It’s not always the best product. Sometimes there are other factors. Eventually an amazing product will build enough awareness but IMO it’s too early to tell if that’s the case with Daxxify. But I’m buying shares betting that the worst is almost over.
Picked up another 10,000 shares. Avg price now around $5.50. At this point, the risk/reward looks pretty good. I don’t see much traction with Daxxify in the aesthetic circles I’m in. Neither myself or other owners I know are carrying it. But any whiff of good (or even not bad) news could send it flying.
I’m not just an EOLS shill. I feel I have a pretty good pulse on who is doing what out there. And Evolus is humming. Hopefully that happens with Revance. I think their real opportunity is in therapeutics.
There are great products to use with Microneedling. Ha serums, PRP, exosomes, firming serums. When needling in toxins it helps with the pores. Have to be careful with depth. Sculptra is also controversial.
Man…I bonded and agreed with Edcoolidge. Look at that :)
Picked up some more shares this morning at $5.10
Small rant….One thing I have seen so much on this board is fighting against the “double dose canard”. Regardless of the amount of toxin, Revance did their study with DOUBLE the amount of units. Their materials recommend DOUBLE the units of Botox. Daxi-Lite is NOT DOUBLE the units. So if it’s anyone’s fault for the confusion over the amount of toxin in a “dose”, it’s Revance’s. End of rant…
You are probably the only person who read what I said and came to that conclusion. I didn’t use any absolutes (“nobody”) and didn't opine on which tox is “better”. The EOLS rep said they are crazy busy. And speaking to other practices, I believe that. I can only speak of the circles I’m in. I see lots of Jeuveau and hardly any Daxxify. That may change. I can only tell you what I’m seeing today.
It took a difficult road for Evolus/Jeuveau to get to this point. And Revance might be going through something similar where adoption is slow (at least slower than it needs to be with their balance sheet).
I think if you spent more time listening to people who might know a thing or two instead of attacking them, it might help you. I’ve been truthful on everything I have posted. Whether you believe that or not. And I’m long some Revance so not sure why I’d want the stock to go down. You do a real disservice to this board Ed.
Spent over an hour last week with our Evolus rep. They just rearranged our territory so this person is new to covering us but I have known the rep for years from their previous company. The rep said that they can’t keep up with the influx of business. Said that they should probably cut up the territory again because it’s too much. Practices that have never purchased are calling and reaching out.
This rep has good friends at Revance and feels bad them. Has nothing bad to say about them. We are supposed to follow up because their friend has been purchasing Daxxify and will give me an update. Like I said, in my circles, I’m not seeing much Daxxify adoption. Even though a couple of us were part of PrevU, we arent buying yet.
There’s no war by “greedy” or “lazy” injectors against Daxxify.
On 1/4/2024 we were notified that Allergan was raising the price of Botox by 3.5%, effective Feb 1
Agreed
Posting on a message board about a stock that you want to go up so you can make money…..greed
Bragging about the profit margins of said company….greed.
Going to Med school or Nursing school so you can be an injector……greed.
Spending hundred of thousands of dollars on equipment, real estate, biz expenses so you can make $$ in a business…..greed.
It’s not a pro bono operation. The more sales, the higher the margins, the better RVNC stock does for EdCoolidge and other people on this board. It’s just really silly to keep saying.
I dont say much to compare Daxxify to Jeuveau. I’ve learned that in real life, it’s pretty subjective. And every company does what they can to make their studies as favorable as possible. So to me, real world experience trumps anything. I gave some details of our experience with Daxxify. And I came away with the opinion that it was a bit overhyped. Especially at that price point. And just saying “this is the best product” doesn’t do it. So I don’t say either product is the “best”. Daxxify or Jeuveau or Botox. One might be the best for some practices or some patients.
Love it.
Im seeing RVNC going through a few similar struggles that EOLS did. Was $3.00 and settled their lawsuit. Lots of hype. Ripped up to $14s. Didn’t get the traction they thought originally (had to re-launch) and the Street wanted the company to prove over multiple quarters (and years) that they could grow and slow cash burn. Because f those concerns, the stock came back into the $5.00 range. Over a few years, they are proving it and are slowly getting attention of investors.
I would take this same script and put RVNC in there. Some comparisons to use. Sure….products are different. But that’s where I see Revance. They have burned the Street and now they really have to prove that they have their act together. I think they can climb out of it. And if so, there is huge upside. But the clock is ticking.
Also, the comments about “greedy” injectors and owners is really kinda ironic don’t you think?
Evolus just preannounced an incredible Q4 and increased 2024 estimates. I’m seeing a steady uptick in Jeuveau usage in practices. I had several practices ask about it last Q that had never used it. I know this isn’t popular on this board but it’s relevant here. I’m not seeing an uptick in Daxxify interest…..at least not in the circles I’m in.
Disclosure: I’m VERY long EOLS and long a few shares of RVNC.
I get that. Those convos were also mentioning Kenvue which spun off from JNJ.
Yes….reading the whole transcript now. Great commentary on strength of the toxin market
JNJ is definitely interested in this space and I have had convos with execs of other companies over the years that mentioned them as well. EOLS and RVNC would seem to fit that mold. That being said, one of the things that has turned me off a bit has been the number of people that have posted the past year about a buyout for RVNC around the corner. Invest in a good company and let that happen if/when it does.
Reading through the Abbvie/Allergan transcript from the JPM conf. Comments on growth of toxin industry.
Robert A. Michael - AbbVie Inc. - President & COO
And there's been questions on the aesthetics business, but we're seeing it trend very nicely. We expect it to return to growth in '24. As Jeff mentioned, toxins are clearly on that trend. We've now seen 2 quarters of very nice growth. Fillers are getting there, but we're most encouraged by the share performance. Despite (inaudible) coming in the market, we've held our share for Botox and then to (inaudible) gaining share with the new launches of (inaudible) is very encouraging.
I don’t pay attention to price targets of analysts. If anything, I go the other way. FWIW I picked up some shares this morning
Looks like Goldman won’t get the next secondary. That’s quite the price target change.