I agree Soma

I think if you were hoping for a higher price, I think recent developments made that less likely. I had heard years ago that Teoxane always had an angle to get the rights to Daxxify……in Europe. So Australia seems like breadcrumbs. But there is probably more to the story. But I think this at least shows that Teoxane is on board

Has no resemblance of Dew. Although I frequently disagreed with Dew, I respect his insights and knowledge. This meteor person is quite different. I really don’t care who an anonymous person is, I just want respectful dialogue on these boards.

Maybe meteoric is edcoolidge reincarnated. So tired of childish mockery of others. It’ll be nice when this deal gets done and we can put this name to bed until they come public again through Crown or someone else.

I agree with this. Although they are certainly not happy with the sale price, I think this is a leverage move for something else (not a higher share price). Most likely to get a better RHA deal and/or to get the Daxxify rights in Europe.

I knew Teoxane was going to be an issue on this acquisition the second it was announced. Not sure how this plays out though.

Yes familiar with them. Versa has become pretty popular. Direct competitor.

I just think it has to be Teoxane related

We carry Crown’s Biojuve and their Progen PRP. I wouldn’t think of them as competitors with a filler or toxin…..other than someone may allocate dollars one direction or the other. But I’m certainly not a legal expert on this. Wouldn’t surprise me that a case could be made for that though.

Not sure why I couldn’t forward or reference my comments from last month. So I just copied and pasted:

Note from 8/12/24:

The Valerie/Teoxane connection is interesting. Dew outlined this in the past:

Teoxane received its initial 2.5M shares of RVNC as part of the dermal-filler licensing deal in 2020
June - August 2023 bought 1.9 million shares between $17-$25 per share
They bought another 2.1 million shares of RVNC shares on the open market during Oct 2023 at prices between $8.52 and $9.44

Does Crown need them to tender to close the deal? The thing is….I believe Teoxane’s play was to get the European Daxxify rights. So they could get an agreement in place with Crown.

But the whole thing seems a bit off IMO.

Note from 8/13/24:

If Teoxane were to make a great deal with Crown for Daxxify rights, I think Teoxane could stomach the buyout price. I find the whole deal perplexing.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the leverage they would employ would be for Daxxify rights

Dew brings up a good point. I also mentioned the Teoxane connection on this message last month. I had heard a couple years ago that Teoxane wanted the European Daxxify rights. That could have been their angle with continued stock ownership. Crown and Teoxane need to be on the same page IMO.

I don’t disagree. I’d like higher price for the deal too.

For those not wanting the deal to go through, hope u are prepared for what it would look like.

I appreciate the partial pass :)
I sure don’t get them all right…..but with Revance, I was pretty spot on. I just didn’t make any real money shorting it because the extent of my shorting was a day trade or two. I did go long at the end.
I followed Revance closely because I have been very long Evolus for quite some time and know the toxin space well. And Dew and I were the only people that would comment on the Evolus iHub msg board.

I really think the Revance fail was a mixture of Daxxify over-hype, terrible mgmt and marketing strategy and then the difficulty of launching any new product (even if it is as good as the hype).

Soma…..imo, you have been the best on this board. Great info all the time. Good luck to you.

Pretty sure he is as upset with RVNC as anyone else. Sometimes things don’t work out. He seems like a smart guy but lots of people relied on him too much. He gives what he knows and gives his opinion. (I learned quite a bit from him). Then do your OWN due diligence. My own DD told me there were issues.

That being said, the areas where I strongly disagreed with Dew was when he accused EOLS of doctoring their study/slides on the double dose study. And also claiming that Evolus would lose their ability to import Jeuveau from S. Korea (well after their settlement deal with Medytox). His bias against Evolus was very strong.
I didnt see much progress in my circles with Daxxify which was a red flag. And we were part of PrevU and it just didn’t impress enough. I always looked at the landscape where Revance, Evolus, Galderma could keep chipping away at Allergan. And if managed correctly, their stock prices could all do well. But the public journey for RVNC is over for now. GLTA

I really don’t like when people point blame at others (like Dew) for investing losses. No one is clicking the buttons for you. I certainly didn’t see things the same as Dew and others on this board. It was unfortunate that a couple of loud people on this board made it sometimes unbearable and did a huge disservice to others.

So if someone else comes in, maybe they pay $7-8 share. I mean…..it’s just grasping at straws now. The company is bleeding money. Foley is a salesman but he couldn’t pretend any longer. It’s the reality of the situation.

There are arb funds that do exactly that….per their prospectus, that’s just what they do. Regardless of treasury yields or other opportunities out there. They are picking up pennies. These funds are then likely part of a sleeve of alt asset class in portfolios.

Lots of merger arbitrage funds get in there and trade it

If Teoxane were to make a great deal with Crown for Daxxify rights, I think Teoxane could stomach the buyout price. I find the whole deal perplexing.

The Valerie/Teoxane connection is interesting. Dew outlined this in the past:

Teoxane received its initial 2.5M shares of RVNC as part of the dermal-filler licensing deal in 2020
June - August 2023 bought 1.9 million shares between $17-$25 per share
They bought another 2.1 million shares of RVNC shares on the open market during Oct 2023 at prices between $8.52 and $9.44

Does Crown need them to tender to close the deal? The thing is….I believe Teoxane’s play was to get the European Daxxify rights. So they could get an agreement in place with Crown.

But the whole thing seems a bit off IMO.

Email from Crown just hit:

Exciting News About Our Company

I am writing to share some exciting news about our company, as we have taken a significant step forward in our vision to become a fully integrated global skincare company with safe and effective scientific solutions for life-long healthy skin.

Today, we announced that Crown has entered into a merger agreement with Revance, an aesthetics company setting the new standard in healthcare with innovative aesthetic and therapeutic offerings that enhance patient outcomes and physician experiences. We are extremely excited about this transaction, which will be valuable to our customers as we will soon operate at the intersection of professional aesthetics and consumer skincare.

The industry is poised for continued growth, and we believe that the newly formed company will be well positioned to capitalize on the growing desire for consumers to align themselves with brands focused on science and efficacy. Upon completion of the deal, we expect that Crown will have one of the most comprehensive portfolios of skin health and aesthetic brands, and one of the largest distribution footprints in skincare.

We plan to enter new categories, strengthen our offering in existing ones, accelerate our product development, and enhance our technological edge to better serve our customers, innovate more effectively and achieve our ambitious goals. We will also have what we believe will be one of the broadest and deepest offerings in aesthetics including toxins, fillers, microneedling, PRP, and topical skin care.

Until the deal closing, which is expected by year end, Crown and Revance will continue to operate as separate and independent companies, and we expect no service disruption or delay to your business during this time.

As we go through this process, outside parties may inquire about the transaction. We ask that you do not comment on the transaction or provide any details. If anyone reaches out to you with questions, please refer them to our PR agency of record, ICR, at Crown@icrinc.com.

We thank you for your continued partnership with Crown, and we look forward to continuing to work together to achieve our dreams.

Best,

Jeff Bedard
Founder and CEO
Crown Laboratories, Inc.

I mentioned an Institutional investor who felt lied to by Foley right to their face. Nothing ever seemed right about Foley.

You seem really smart Dew. I’m sure you’ll make it back in another investment.

Wish you the best in your trading and investing.

I was called names and a FUDster on this one. I had pretty good info from the beginning that this was going to have problems. Although, I was still long shares in the 5’s and fortunately got out today. I don’t say this to gloat. I have made my share of bad investments. But this board became such a cesspool of group think and confirmation bias (which is not uncommon on msg boards). The amount of times I heard that ABBV or someone else was going to buy them for billions was incredible.
I don’t think I ever mentioned this. But validates institutional distrust of Foley.
Around the time of Daxxify approval, a large institution met with Foley because they know this space well and were looking to potentially go long RVNC. (I frequently speak with the main portfolio manager.)
Foley told them in an in-person meeting that they had 6 months on the label and that the excipient was validated and in the label as well (It’s listed in the inactive ingredients: RTP004 peptide)
This investor played dumb like they didn’t know much/hadn’t read it From that point on, they went short and made a killing. (I was dumb and never really shorted, other than a few quick day trades). Mgmt was never to be trusted. Hence the story of Revance. Crown will integrate this with their Skinpen and Biojuve skin products. This will be a game changer for the company. I wish you all the best in your future investments and hopefully we all take what we learned from RVNC and apply it going forward.

I don’t care for price targets by these analysts. I just figured I’d share what I have access to

HC Wainwright research from back in May 2024 on RVNC:
Slow but steady growth for Daxxify in the aesthetics department.
In their 1Q2024 earnings call, Revance reported modest gains which management attributed to the pricing strategy that they introduced last year to jump start growth after the company's initial focus on Daxxify's duration profile fell flat. Despite some progress, 1Q revenues of $51.9 million fell well below consensus at $56M and our estimate of $53.7M. Daxxify came in at $22.1M, which management noted was reduced $2M as a result of their consumer coupon program. In our view, however, that's a normal business practice especially considering management's emphasis on pricing as part of Daxxify's go-to market strategy. Management felt the revenue impact was a worthwhile investment in establishing a loyal customer base who may be able to experience a potentially better and comparatively longer-lasting product with fast onset and improved skin quality. Daxxify aesthetic units were up 105% year-over-year but there was 8% quarter-over- quarter decrease from 4Q. There's typically some seasonality in the toxin business though we'd note Evolus' (EOLS; Buy) Jeuveau only saw a 2.6% decline quarter-quarter decline from 4Q. 1Q fell within the lower end of the range of management's expectations, but it fell short of our expectations and in general, that makes the ramp to making guidance of "at least $280M" in revenues even steeper, in our view. After a period focused on repairing relations with existing accounts, Revance is beginning to focus on opening new accounts. The company feels its positioning with existing accounts has solidified, backed by the fact that they observed strong reordering activity from the existing accounts that make up almost two-thirds of the Daxxify revenue. Management is seeing qualitative changes such as higher average order size per account representing deeper penetration and loyalty to product, reflecting that their modified strategy is likely having the desired effect. Given the unique characteristics of using Daxxify, we're focused on seeing how quickly new accounts ramp up activity, considering it took +12 months with the initial customer set. While the new pricing strategy and experience should allow the company to jump-start that process, given mixed buzz on Daxxify within the aesthetics community, we think some new accounts may jump in cautiously. With less certainty on numbers, we lower our FY24 revenue estimate to $270M from $272M and also lower our PT to $11. Reiterate Buy.
RHA remains a star. Despite some noted softness in the filler market, Revance’s RHA filler continues to also gain market share as well, going up from 9.1% in Q4 to 9.8% in Q1. The company recently launched RHA3 for lip augmentation and fullness. This should help jump-start RHA's growth, which has slowed a bit in recent periods. We think Revance pulled demand for the RHA product line forward, leading into Daxxify's launch as accounts sought to secure access so the relative stability despite Daxxify's initial struggles, in our view, reflects the strength of the portfolio.
Therapeutics, Inc.
May 10, 2024
Daxxify moves out of "PreVu" phase of CD launch. After approval last August, Revance engaged in a limited launch into cervical dystonia. With some commercial clinical experience, getting a J-code to facilitate reimbursement, and securing coverage for 78% of commercial lives, Revance took the step of advancing the Daxxify to a full commercial launch in CD, which is the largest of the movement disorder markets for neurotoxins. CD is a roughly $350M market. Daxxify seeks to provide a sustained and improved duration of symptom control which is known to be the biggest challenge for CD patients. Since toxin treatment for CD can typically only occur every 12 weeks based on safety, labeling and reimbursement guidelines, a vast majority of patients face symptom recurrence between treatments. Daxxify can potentially offer better and longer symptom control for CD patients.
Financial update for 1Q. Revance recorded a total revenue of $51.9M, an increase of 13.5% YoY from $45.8M in 1Q23, on the back of an increase in Daxxify sales volume. 1Q24 revenue was below our estimate of $53.7M and the street consensus of $56.8M. 1Q24 revenue consisted of $29.6M from RHA Collection, $22.1M from Daxxify, and $0.2M from collaboration revenue. Accounts across Revance’s aesthetic portfolio totaled over 7,500 at the end of 1Q24. The company posted a loss per share, from continuing operations, of $0.54, below our estimate of $0.62 loss per share. 1Q23 loss per share from continuing operations was $0.60. Non-GAAP SG&A expenses rose 19.9% YoY to $61.0M, below our estimate of $65.3M. The YoY increase was mainly driven by higher sales and marketing expenses related to the RHA Collection and Daxxify. Non-GAAP R&D expenses decreased 7.3% YoY to $12.7M, below our estimate of $17.7M. The YoY decrease was mainly due to lower clinical trial and regulatory activity. Non-GAAP operating loss widened to $36.6M from $31.2M recorded in 1Q23 and was below our estimate of $40.1M loss. At the end of the quarter, the company’s cash and cash equivalents stood at $277.1M. Along with the company’s current cash position and anticipated revenues, the company’s operations are expected to be sufficiently funded to cash flow break-even and reach positive adjusted EBITDA in 2025. Meanwhile, the company reaffirmed its FY24 guidance and expects product revenue to be at least $280.0M. FY24 non-GAAP operating expenses from continuing operations are expected to be in the range of $290.0M to $310.0M and non-GAAP SG&A expenses to be between $240.0M and $255.0M.
Valuation and Risks. Our Buy rating and $11 price target for Revance are representing 5x the present value of our risk-adjusted 2035E peak sales of $945M. We adjust each indication for probability of success, most notably with glabellar lines at 100% with approval, cervical dystonia at 100%, ULS at 85%, chronic migraine at 20%, and the Botox biosimilar at 60%. Risks include regulatory, as Daxxi is not FDA-approved for all indications, commercial execution, macroeconomic and consumer spending trends, new competitors in the neurotoxin space, and clinical trial execution in various therapeutic indications.

This is an HC Wainwright analyst writing this, not Evolus. Also, on every conf call (including this past week), analysts ask about competitors. This is all relevant to RVNC.

BNP Paribas analyst asked this question to EOLS:
And also, if you have any timing updates on Hugel, Letybo and Galderma QM1114, please? Thank you.
EOLS’ CEO response:
On the competitive front, as you saw, Letybo received approval earlier this year. They most recently announced a partner in the U.S. And they plan to commercialize sometime here in the back half of the year. At this point, as you know, we're competing with Letybo in Europe, and we're aware of the product and the dimensions of that brand as it enters the market. We'll be prepared as well when they enter the U.S.

And I'll just remind you that as we've had entrants that have entered since we launched, the market continues to grow at a very healthy clip. Our growth wasn't impacted by the latest entrant. If anything, we accelerated a bit. I think the focus on toxins only increases with new entrant. And our value proposition is clearly defined in this space. And so, the entrants, whether that's placebo or Galderma, which I believe, they did receive the CRL for the liquid, but they do plan to refile sometime next year, which could put them on the market towards the end of next year the following, not clear.

I think it ultimately leads to continued focus on this category and growth, which is significant in the end. It was nice to see this quarter all the significant players in the space reported positive growth despite an increasing competitive environment. And I think that just speaks to the backdrop that we have very low consumer penetration in this market, and there's a lot of growth ahead of us. And as the new player comes in, they can carve out an opportunity for themselves just as we've done successfully in this younger generation of consumers.

This is relevant to Revance. It’s the Wainwright note that just came out on EOLS:
Jeuveau continues gaining market share. For the first time, Evolus achieved profitability with positive non-GAAP operating income of $1.1M for 2Q24, ahead of the company's prior target of 4Q. This was achieved on another strong quarter of revenue growth with Jeuveau sales of $66.9M, ahead of our $63.4M estimate. Growth was primarily driven by higher Jeuveau volumes, which saw its share in the neurotoxin market grow to 13%, compared with 12% by the end of 2023. This growth in share comes in spite of the price-cutting taken by Revance (RVNC; Buy), as well as the rebound seen in Allergan's Botox franchise, demonstrating the strength of the Evolus brand, in our view. The company raised its full-year 2024 net revenue guidance from $255M- $265M to $260M-$270M based on the impressive performance of its key product. In 2Q, ~770 new purchasing accounts were added, which brings the total number of customers purchasing since launch to ~14,000. Management noted the number representing a ~50% penetration of the 30,000 customers in the US that perform facial injectable procedures. More importantly, most customers stay in the loyalty program and receive repeat treatments, and the reorder rate among customers remained at ~70%. The Evolus rewards loyalty program members grew by over 78,000 to over 900,000. The total Evolus Rewards redemptions for the quarter again hit an all-time high of ~190,000, primarily driven by repeat treatments for existing customers at the rate of over 60%. Currently, the US sales contribute over 95% of revenues while the company is still expanding its international market. The company recently launched Nuceiva in Australia and is launching the product in Spain. We are encouraged to see the company achieve profitability this quarter and are guided to deliver full-year profitability for 2025 and positive cash generation. In our view, we're beginning to see the earnings power in Evolus' business model. While we expect to see a reduction in operating leverage beginning in 2H25 when the company launches the Evolysse filler line, we expect operating leverage to make a strong comeback within 12-18 months as the filler line gains traction. With the company well on track to its $700M revenue target for 2028, we expect to see robust operating margins as the business scales up.

Here’s the thing:
Botox does the marketing for Jeuveau. So easy to switch between the two. It’s one of the main things that people don’t understand.
That being said, I am seeing more advertisements for Daxxify. So we’ll see how their outlook is when they report.

Exactly right. EOLS has a pretty clear path to profitability and keeps humming. Revance has only made people more skeptical.
Now….up to this point I have said that I hadn’t seen much traction in my circles on Daxxify/Revance. However, the past couple of weeks, I’m aware of a couple good sized accts that have purchased Daxxify and I don’t think they have been involved before. I’m still long some RVNC shares. I sold out of some at my cost basis recently at $4.20. I’d like to see a surprise and raise.

Very impressive results .

Of course it is.

Like you said, AEON is almost insolvent with balance sheet is a wreck. This biosimilar approach is their only hope and it’s actually interesting. Not sure why it took them so long to do it. But these guys are not a problem for RVNC.

Since it’s just you and me on the EOLS board, I don’t come here much to look at it….funny enough :)

He’s buying a house I guess. Would rather see him purchase than sell but not too concerning IMO.

Sure….obviously those of us that actually purchase product will get end of quarter sales pitches. It felt a little different this Q…..Allergan reached out more than usual. What that means….I’m not exactly sure. But I have some guesses.