[DewDiligence]

EOLS 2Q23 results—6/30/23 cash=$41.7M:

https://investors.evolus.com/press-releases-and-news/news-details/2023/Evolus-Reports-Second-Quarter-2023-Results-and-Provides-Business-Update/default.aspx

Cash and cash equivalents at June 30, 2023 were $41.7 million compared to $31.5 million at March 31, 2023. The cash balance at June 30, 2023 included additional borrowings of $25 million under the company’s credit facility with Pharmakon. For the second quarter of 2023, net cash used for operating activities was $13.3 million, which included the $4.4 million license milestone expense.

EOLS pre-announced 2Q23 sales of $49.3M last week (#msg-172453778).

[boraborak38]

Jeuveau hitting its stride and taking share.

[DewDiligence]

EOLS pre-announces 2Q23 sales=$49.3M, +18% QoQ (consistent with seasonal patterns in the US aesthetics business) and +33% YoY:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evolus-raises-full-revenue-guidance-124500702.html

EOLS raised 2023 sales guidance by $5M to a range of $185-195M (up from the prior range of $180-190M).

EOLS’ full 2Q23 earnings release is 8/2/23 after the close.

[DewDiligence]

EOLS shareholders_approve 100M—>200M increase_in authorized shares:

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001570562/000157056223000079/eols-20230609.htm

[DewDiligence]

EOLS reports 1Q23 results:

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230509006062/en

1Q23 Jeuveau sales were $41.7M, -4% QoQ (consistent with seasonal patterns in the aesthetics business) and +23% YoY.

EOLS reiterated 2023 revenue guidance of $180-190M.

1Q23 net loss was $12.0M ($5.9M non-GAAP).

Cash at 12/31/22 was $31.5M, down from $53.9M at 12/31/22.

[DewDiligence]

EOLS licenses dermal-filler line for $18M plus royalties on eventual sales:

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230509006122/en

Evolus…today announced it has entered into a definitive agreement to be the exclusive U.S. distributor of a line of five unique dermal fillers currently in late-stage development.

…Symatese is a privately held French company that designs, engineers and manufactures regenerative medical solutions based on its innovative technology platforms. Symatese has a unique and combined expertise in the field of hyaluronic acid and injection systems and is well known for the development of the latest generation of Restylane products in the United States…

…beginning with the expected launch of the first two indications in the first half of 2025, followed by a third in 2026 and two more in 2027… the Evolysse portfolio will offer a complete range of filler solutions to cover the spectrum of indications including mid-face, nasolabial folds, lips and eyes.

…In consideration for the exclusive U.S. distribution rights, Evolus will pay Symatese a total of €16.2 million (approximately $17.8 million based on current foreign exchange rates) including an upfront payment of €4.1 million and €12.1 million of additional payments beginning in June 2025. Evolus will also pay Symatese a mid-single-digit royalty based on net sales and a transfer price for the product. The two companies will share responsibility for expenses related to the registration process for the two planned product launches in 2027.

EOLS expects the dermal filler line to generate $200M of sales in 2028.

[boraborak38]

Big buy in EOLS OTM $10 May calls today. 6462 contracts at $0.25.

[DewDiligence]

EOLS 4Q22 CC transcript:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/q4-2022-evolus-inc-earnings-151237759.html

[boraborak38]

Yeah….that was the only surprise. They have been saying they won’t need to raise $$ for operations. Reiterated again on the conf call. Also, I think they are more of an acquisition candidate than an acquirer because of their size and singular product. I don’t believe they would be selling shares anywhere in this vicinity either. But I’ll be watching.

[DewDiligence]

The only “surprise” is the refreshed $250M shelf registration and new $50M ATM facility, which EOLS just filed with the SEC:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1570562/000162828023007022/evoluss-32023.htm

EOLS says the shelf and/or ATM will only be tapped for M&A and it appears that investors believe them.

[boraborak38]

No surprises here.

[DewDiligence]

EOLS reports 4Q22 results:

https://investors.evolus.com/press-releases-and-news/news-details/2023/Evolus-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2022-Results-and-Provides-Business-Update/default.aspx

4Q22 Jeuveau sales of $43.6M (pre-announced on 1/18/23: #msg-170403381) were +26% YoY and +29% QoQ (consistent with seasonal patterns in the aesthetics business).

EOLS reiterated 2023 revenue guidance of $180-190M and issued first-time 2023 non-GAAP operating-expense guidance of $145-150M.

Cash at 12/31/22 was $53.9M, down from $65.6M at 9/30/22.

[boraborak38]

Can’t wait for Aeon to be done. If I had $15MM to allocate, I would have approached them in their desperation to close their deal and taken shares off their hands at these levels. Tang was smart.

[DewDiligence]

Aeon sold 44% of its remaining EOLS shares last week:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1570562/000147793223001198/xslF345X03/form4.xml

[boraborak38]

I really think you are reaching on this one. Besides….Medytox not only gets royalties but owns 20% of the shares.

[boraborak38]

I don’t see that as “clearly”. But your strong bias against EOLS would make it so for you. Our practice uses all 4 toxins and our staff is part of the PrevU for Daxxify. I see Jeuveau taking share without a doubt. I’m waiting for Daxxify results before I opine but I’m hopeful.

[DewDiligence]

What the CEO clearly means by the "not included" comment is that the existence of the double-dose option is not going to increase Jeuveau sales relative to what they would have been if the double-dose study had never been conducted.

Management must have thought the double-dose study would boost the company's share price, but that didn't happen because investors rightfully saw it as a gimmick. I predict that EOLS will have very little, if anything, to say about this topic when the "final analysis" is completed.

[boraborak38]

Comments pertain to what? That they aren’t including “extra strength” in the $500MM estimate? Who cares. Injectors aren’t going to be reporting this back to the company so it’s pointless to even have it as a real trackable KPI. Just buy twice as many vials. Use less saline. It’s already being done. And then have a study that backs it up.
$500MM is $500MM regardless which bucket it comes in. Revenue and margins are the same (albeit Intl and US have different arrangements with Daewoong). And yes I’m long EOLS….and RVNC for that matter. Regarding the study….it’s interim analysis with 8 minutes to explain it all. I’ll wait for more details as the study plays out.

[DewDiligence]

Maybe. Aeon Biopharma (EOLS' former parent company) does not seem so confident: #msg-171190307.

[DewDiligence]

There isn’t going to be a real accurate trackable “extra strength” usage.

I get that, but the CEO’s comment on the SVB webcast still pertains.

The way the executives danced around the question pertaining to the control arms in the double-dose trial was comical. Unless you're long the stock, of course.

[boraborak38]

Like it or not, Evolus is going to continue to get Jeuveau from Daewoong (or at worst Medytox).

[boraborak38]

LOL? You do understand that they use the same 100 unit vials with “regular strength” as they will with “extra strength”? There isn’t going to be a real accurate trackable “extra strength” usage. They just use more vials (units) and less saline. Some injectors/Drs are already doing this. And at the recent SVB conf they said $500MM is a “conservative” estimate, which isn’t a word they have thrown around before.

[DewDiligence]

EOLS’ 2028 forecast of $500M in sales includes no contribution from “double-dose” Jeuveau, according to the CEO’s statement on today’s SVB webcast. LOL

https://wsw.com/webcast/svb8/eols/1625049

[DewDiligence]

Court_ruling_in_Korea_against Daewoong may_end EOLS sales_of Jeuveau—(a/k/a BTX):

https://www.koreabiomed.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=20428

The Seoul Central District Court on Friday ruled in favor of Medytox in the lawsuit filed by Medytox against Daewoong Pharmaceutical...including the prohibition of infringement of trade secrets, and ordered Daewoong to… turn over Daewoong's BTX strain to Medytox, and discard all finished BTX products made with the strain.

The ruling comes after Medytox filed a lawsuit against Daewoong Pharmaceutical for damages of 1.1 billion won in October 2017, claiming that a former employee stole Medytox's BTX strains and product manufacturing process technical documents and provided them to Daewoong Pharmaceutical.

… After the ruling came out, Medytox immediately sent out a press release stating that it had regained the legitimate rights of its BTX strain five years and four months after filing a lawsuit against Daewoong.

… Daewoong said it will appeal the court's decision, saying that the ruling was a “clear misjudgment.”

… On Friday, Medytox's shares surged by a daily limit of 30 percent... Daewoong shares dropped…9.35 percent from the previous day.

As a side effect of the ruling, Hugel, which is currently embroiled in a U.S. International Trade Commission dispute over the origin of its strain with Medytox, also saw the stock price decline…18.17 percent from the previous day.

The ruling will also affect Evlous, which markets Daewoong's BTX products in the U.S., as all of Daewoong's BTX products are currently manufactured in Korea.

As the ruling ordered Daewoong to discard all products made with Medytox's strain, Daewoong's thriving BTX export business will likely ground to a complete halt if Daewoong fails to receive a suspension of execution from the court.

Above all, if the ruling leads to the cancellation of the license for Daewoong's BTX product, the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety may revoke its export permission.

As Evolus' revenue entirely consists of Jeuveau, the company will no longer be able to maintain sales if such a ruling happens.

This is an outcome we all knew might happen—see, for instance, #msg-149854993. Moreover, the Korea court ruling announced today may additionally keep Hugel (#msg-165634697) and Aeon (#msg-170687120) off the US market.

[DewDiligence]

EOLS' double-dose dataset cannot be trusted...

The bottom line is that EOLS' double-dose dataset cannot be trusted. EOLS acted deceitfully when they mentioned the phrase "none or mild" in Saturday's PR is a way designed to mislead readers (#msg-171071141, #msg-171071435).

If that weren't enough, EOLS also refused to release the data from the two control arms during today's webcast on the double-dose dataset (#msg-171070830, #msg-171071093). That omission is a tell that doubling the dose did not actually accomplish anything of much consequence with respect to the duration of effect.

Disclosure: I'm long RVNC; no position in EOLS.

[DewDiligence]

EOLS CC slides for double-dose Jeuveau—see_comments_below:

https://s29.q4cdn.com/603291515/files/doc_presentation/2023/2023.01.30-analyst-call-extra-strength-phase-ii-study-interim-results-website.pdf

The slide set does not show duration curves for the 20U-Jeuveau and 20U-Botox control arms! The reason for this omission is probably that the duration metrics in the control arms were similar to—or even indistinguishable from—those for the 40U (double-dose) Jeuveau arm.

[DewDiligence]

EOLS reports double-dose trial_results—see #msg-171059874 for_commentary:

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230128005004/en

[DewDiligence]

EOLS pre-announces 4Q22 Jeuveau sales=$43.6M, +26%YoY:

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230118005311/en

Full-year 2022 Jeuveau sales were $149M. Cash at 12/31/22 was $53.4M, down from $65.6M at 9/30/22 (#msg-170403381).

EOLS issued 2023 sales guidance of $180-190M (+24% YoY at the midpoint of the range) and also announced an “aspirational” goal of $500M in annual sales by 2028. Further, EOLS said its expects non-GAAP profitability in 4Q23.

EOLS plans to announce preliminary data from the phase-2 "double dose" trial on 1/28/23.

[DewDiligence]

AEON Biopharma goes public via SPAC merger with PMGM:

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/12/13/2572545/0/en/AEON-Biopharma-to-Become-Publicly-Listed-via-Merger-with-Priveterra-Acquisition-Corp-Accelerating-Clinical-Development-of-ABP-450-prabotulinumtoxinA-Injection-to-Treat-Debilitating.html

AEON is the former parent company of EOLS, which sells Jeuveau botulinum toxin for aesthetic indications. AEON’s ABP-450 is the same drug as Jeuveau, but AEON is seeking approval in therapeutic indications only, starting with cervical dystonia.

Daewoong of Korea is the toxin supplier for both EOLS and AEON.

[DewDiligence]

EOLS 3Q22 results—9/30/22 cash=$65.6M:

https://investors.evolus.com/press-releases-and-news/news-details/2022/Evolus-Reports-Third-Quarter-2022-Results-and-Provides-Business-Update/default.aspx

3Q22 Jeuveau sales were $33.9M, -9% QoQ ,+27% YoY. The QoQ decline is consistent with seasonal patterns in the aesthetics market.

[DewDiligence]

EOLS launches Nuceiva* in UK:

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20221004005189/en

In the UK, Evolus is partnering with Wigmore Medical, known as a leading supplier of specialist products to aesthetics practitioners. Wigmore has been working in aesthetics for over 35 years, providing reliable pharmacy services and expertise, trusted by practitioners.

Evolus plans to introduce Nuceiva next in Germany and Austria in the first half of 2023, and is working closely with its partner, Novvia Pharm. Novvia was established in 2003 and is dedicated to providing leading brands to medical aesthetics practitioners in Germany and Austria. During 2023, the company expects to enter additional European countries, and, subject to regulatory approval, will also launch Nuceiva in Australia.

EOLS has previously acknowledged that European sales will be de minimis during 2022.

*The European brand name for Jeuveau.

[10nisman]

I replied to your post in #msg-170092989.

Thanks Dew.

[DewDiligence]

I replied to your post in #msg-170092989.

[10nisman]

FWIW, a hedge fund (Caligan Partners) shareholder thoughts on EOLS. Includes a some discussion about RVNC (Daxxify) in the last 20 minutes of the discussion.

[DewDiligence]

EOLS -8% on reiterated financial guidance:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evolus-concludes-certain-royalty-payments-124500652.html

Evolus continues to expect its adjusted gross profit margin for the quarter ending December 31, 2022 to increase to the range of 68% to 71%. This compares to an adjusted gross profit margin of 57.4% for the quarter ended June 30, 2022... Adjusted gross profit is calculated as gross profit excluding amortization of an intangible asset.

Under the Medytox/Allergan Settlement Agreements in February 2021, the company agreed to pay royalties on the U.S. sales of Jeuveau from December 16, 2020 to September 16, 2022 to Medytox and Allergan, and pay royalties on sales of product outside the U.S. from December 16, 2020 to September 16, 2022 to Medytox. In addition, the company agreed to make cash payments to Medytox and Allergan totaling $35.0 million, which has been completed except for a final payment of $5 million due in February 2023.

Per the agreement, beginning September 17, 2022 to September 16, 2032, the company will pay Medytox a mid-single digit royalty percentage on net sales of Jeuveau in the U.S. and all territories it has licensed outside the U.S.

None of the above is new info, so perhaps the stock is selling off today because EOLS hasn’t updated its revenue guidance or said when it expects to be profitable.

[DewDiligence]

EOLS director bought $90K of stock on the open market @$9.10 yesterday:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1570562/000157056222000127/xslF345X03/wf-form4_166250899349421.xml

[DewDiligence]

EOLS reported $0 of revenue from its Canadian partner during 2Q22, down from $0.7M in 1Q22.

[DewDiligence]

Not raising 2022 sales guidance—and what that implies about 2H22 (#msg-169566513)—is the main reason EOLS is trading down sharply today.

[DewDiligence]

EOLS’ reiterated 2022 sales guidance “at the high end” of the $143-150M range implies little growth in 2H22 compared to 1H22. Jeuveau sales in 1H22 have been $70.4M ($37.2M + $33.2M), implying less than $80M of sales in 2H22.

[DewDiligence]

EOLS 2Q22 product_sales=$37.2M—6/30/22_cash=$84.5M—(down from $106.7M @3/31/22):

https://investors.evolus.com/press-releases-and-news/news-details/2022/Evolus-Reports-Second-Quarter-2022-Results-and-Provides-Business-Update/default.aspx

2Q22 Jeuveau sales of $37.2 were +12% QoQ, consistent with seasonal trends in the aesthetics business.

EOLS reiterated guidance for 2022 Jeuveau sales to be at the high end of the $143-150M range, but this won’t be enough to reach breakeven operations.

EOLS continues to expect the EU launch of Jeuveau/Nuceiva in 3Q22.

[DewDiligence]

EOLS 1Q22 product_sales=$33.2M—3/31/22_cash=$106.7M—(down from $146.3M @12/31/21):

https://investors.evolus.com/press-releases-and-news/news-details/2022/Evolus-Reports-First-Quarter-2022-Results-and-Provides-Business-Update/default.aspx

1Q22 Jeuveau sales of $33.2 (including $0.7M in Canada) were -2% QoQ, consistent with seasonal trends in the aesthetics business.

EOLS now expects 2022 Jeuveau sales to be at the high end of the prior guidance range of $143-150M, but this won’t be enough to reach breakeven operations.

EOLS continues to expect the EU launch of Jeuveau/Nuceiva in 3Q22.

[DewDiligence]

Addendum—The $143-150M guidance for 2022 sales equates to $36.6M per quarter, which is only a little higher than the $34.7M logged in 4Q21. Even accounting for the fact that the fourth calendar quarter is seasonally strong, the 2022 guidance appears to be a lowball figure.