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In which direction?
I would be great with $10-12 as well! I think $7-8 is probably more reasonable upon approval with a dip to high $5-6 range and then maybe up to $10-12 on a partnership or large investment by a big pharma company.
Murocman
They have 173M shares outstanding according to ETrade, which gives them a current market cap of $668M. Share price at a $2B market cap would be around $10-12.
My only point was it’s a lot harder for a company to come in and accumulate a majority of 173M shares than it would be if they had 25M OS.
Murocman
My layman’s read of the PR is that this is a pretty broad patent and definitely could be a money maker in licensing for anyone else wanting to use this tech. It also makes them a more attractive acquisition target for that reason as well.
Murocman
It will go up nicely if approved but will likely dip as they turn the ATM spigot back on to fund the launch.
It would not surprise me at all if they get taken out.
I am planning on trading mostly out on any big pop and then scaling back in and hold for a bit to see if they get acquired. On the downside of that equation, they have a lot of shares out so that might make them a less attractive acquisition target.
Murocman
Is that a wish on your part ?
Murocman
Any pop will likely be small since the main headlines have come and gone. Additionally they have to spend a lot more money and time to get phase 2b going.
This is going to take awhile to germinate and blossom. For now I’ll watch and look to take a position closer to an announcement of 2b data, which should be powered to be pivotal.
Murocman
What would be a catalyst for this to takeoff and when?
Murocman
Why? There aren’t any earnings nor will there be for some time.
Murocman
Thank you for the input. I guess I go back to my orIginal question then.
If the endpoints are clinically insignificant, why would the FDA allow trials to be completed, accept an NDA, and then a month before the PDUFA, say that we think you have a clinically insignificant drug?
I know this same issue happens a lot with cancer drugs touting PFS vice OS endpoints and I know the FDA has basically said OS should be the yardstick.
It just seems like waste of everyone’s time and a heck of a lot of money. There is also at least the appearance to the outsider that the company was misled on the validity of their approach
Murocman
Thank you for the response. I may take a look and see if I can find anything obvious for educational purposes.
If not maybe the FDA told them to make the success criteria more strict and they chose not to do that?
If that’s the case we may never know unless it comes out in legal discourse which may certainly follow.
Murocman
Isn’t the FDA involved in defining acceptable success criteria for trials?
I know no details on this company or it’s trial but they said they met all of their endpoints. Unless the data has been discovered to be suspect, it seems pretty disingenuous to say at this point that the efficacy is not good enough.
Murocman
That would be extremely rare, although it seems a bit odd to me that the FDA said they didn’t need a committee review but wanted a meeting a month before the PDUFA date.
Normally it’s more or less all or nothing with these reviews and if anything changes or more info is needed, it sets everything back 3-6 months.
GLTA,
Murocman
Doesn’t look like there is any technical support for this until $5 range. With no scheduled trial news until September looks like we could test support?
GLTA,
Murocman
Yes indeed. Just hope they can do enough to escape the onerous workings of the legislators in New York!
Murocman
Thanks!
I am in for a small amount on a swing trade. I’d like to stay long if uplisting goes through but am concerned about the legislation in New York that would prohibit bitcoin mining due to power consumption and effectively shut them down.
Not sure what kind of prospects this legislation has but wouldn’t be surprised by anything given the state.
Murocman
Link?
The size and quality of the deposit
36 year mine life officially but they suspect it will be much longer.
Talked about rare earths coming along for the ride with niobium, scandium and titanium
1.14B project but 20B in revenue and economic impact expected over life of the mine
3-1/2 years to build the mine before production
Financing is last step to getting the project going
If you want to buy stock, mentioned TSX, but no mention of being listed in the U.S. as well
Those are the main points. I couldn’t find any audio either and the interview was in progress when I tuned in at 5:40 CST. It also doesn’t help that the primary afternoon guy got fired a few weeks ago and they’ve had a series of fill-ins so I don’t think much is getting archived like it normally would.
GLTA,
Murocman
Sorry...Jim Sims
Jim smith just interviewed on KFAB Radio in Omaha. If you go to KFAB.com, you can probably access a replay.
GLTA,
Murocman
Had to pull the trigger and take my 20% gains. Should have done it much sooner but didn’t want to give everything back.
Will look to re-enter when the Bears are finished as this is a compelling de-risked play in the mid-long term IMO.
GLTA,
Murocman
Anybody got a handle on timing for finishing the Health Canada Review?
How long do expedited reviews normally take?
Murocman
Catalyst?
Very nice DD! Thank you!
Murocman
Looks like more or less the entire float traded today? Is that correct? Just entered as it looks bullish!
Murocman
If they offer a product that has compelling and distinct advantages over what Tesla and other EV’s offer, then yes they will definitely take market share. If not, they will be just another EV manufacturer in what is already becoming a rapidly crowded space.
The bigger question is where is all the electricity going to come from to keep all of these vehicles charged. We just proved in the Midwest cold snap that there is not nearly enough fossil fuel electrical infrastructure and renewable cannot be relied upon to filled the gap.
This will only get worse.
John
But they haven’t yet, and if you don’t think they are connected you are naive.
I have a couple of friends who were executives for SpaceX. They know Elon personally. SpaceX employees are encouraged to drive Tesla’s and are given steep discounts. Elon Musk devotes a significant amount of time running all of his businesses and spends time at each regularly. There is intellectual interface between each business guided by Mr. Musk. It’s all about getting to and colonizing Mars. At some point Tesla with become monetized to support that. My friends said Mr. Musk’s long vision of the value of Tesla is in its database that supports self-driving cars. That will be sold as as subscription service to others vehicle makers and will be much more of a money maker than building cars ever could be.
It will be interesting to see how and if this comes to pass but I would not bet against Elon Musk. He has not only broken into two industries seen as very difficult if not impossible to succeed in by an outsider, but has come to dominate them in a very short period of time relatively speaking.
Murocman
At $20 per share, that puts the market values at $28 Billion before they’ve delivered a single car.
Tesla is a $650 Billion company but they are also connected to SpaceX and Elon’s other businesses. They also own all of the navigation data for all the cars they have on the road. That is probably the most valuable commodity. No one else has data like that. It’s probably the most valuable part of Tesla if you ask me.
My point is that Lucid has none of these things and will take time to get even a fraction of them. I think the share price will be much more cheaply had at some point in the not too distant future.
GLTU,
Murocman
1.25 Billion shares is not ‘a normal part of any merger process’
GLTU,
Murocman
That’s for sure. 1.25 Billion shares is absolutely ridiculous!
Going to stay away for a bit.
Murocman
Thank you very much!
GLTU,
Murocman
Is there a good place to track news and events for G6 Materials?
Thanks,
Murocman
While good, the current company market cap is $400M so might be a bit of a drag on price appreciation potential
Meant to say with the FDA.
Looks like the FDA doesn’t see much of a bloom on this rose.
Might be tough sledding getting anywhere with the in the U.S. until there is more and compelling data, which will take more time and money.
I’m disappointed. Had high hopes for this treatment.
Murocman
China doesn’t do partial anything. They are an oppressive Communist Regime. With “friends” like them, we don’t need enemies. Keep it fully American owned.
GLTU,
Murocman
Thanks much!
ETrade says 39M shares OS. Is that accurate?
Murocman
Assuming the data is good, they would need to meet with the FDA and confirm they have enough to file for approval, and then yes that would be the next step.
If the data is really good the FDA, could allow conditional/limited use while the application is being reviewed. This has already happened to some degree in Israel.
Murocman