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I don't think any poster on here or other social media has any influence on the SP. I know some people think they do, but In my humble opinion, they do not. I think overall sentiment can have a minimal influence on some traders and maybe even MM's, but again I think it's minimal.
If my former law firm had that attitude, I would have left it for another.
So your previous statement that Posner lost a similar case is not true?
I agree that the number is not overwhelming, but covering 50M when there's close to no daily volume to begin with will not be easy. On top of that, IF there's people on the sideline waiting for approval news who wants to get in, covering those 50M could be costly. If the holders of the shorts are small to medium HF's, they might be forced to cover and close their positions by their broker. I am not in the camp of a super squeeze or anything like that, but I do have a hard time seeing where they will get the shares to cover, unless the MM/brokers have accumulated shares to help them out.
Not sure I agree with your reasoning for no manipulation. What would the upside be to move it to 10 cents? The key for any manipulation is to be able to buy shares at the newly manipulated level without using too many shares to get to that level. If they thought people would sell and not buy whenever they move it lower, they would have done it. It looks like the mid 40's is an area where they can keep it at low cost and at the same time buy shares to cover, making a few pennies with their algo's. In the long run, MM's are not interested in having a huge short position. I actually think that they have long holdings which slowly gets bigger with time, based on their clients short position. If they had a significant short position in the past, I think they have covered by now.
Market Cap is important when looking at what the upside is for a company with a binary future. Market Cap is less important when looking at the downside as the goal is usually close to zero.
5% of their 2023 budget is hardly a rounding error, but not getting involved in your little discussion.
I am sure there's manipulation when it comes to the reported number. I don't put that much stock in the actual number, but I do think it's an indicator of the general short sentiment. I don't think all the bashers are doing it for financial gain. I am sure at least a few of them are, but I also think that some could be family members of deceased patients and some are just people who have no interest at all, but have gotten themselves into these arguments and it's become personal for them. I also think some of the bashers are simply traders looking to create a sentiment they think they can use trading the stock.
Then we have the Nevercure people who might not be shorting or trading in the stock, but have a financial interest in any negative sentiment in NWBO, that could push their SP higher.
I am not sure we can be certain of many things here on the OTC.
I was talking about a non-dilutive deal. A BP doesn’t need to own NWBO. They need us to extend the lifespan of their patents.
My only problem with management at this point. Otherwise I think they have done a decent job getting us to this point.
Yeah, BP is only way to get non-dilutive funding IMHO. They don’t really need to have ownership, just exclusivity in some form.
Agree with your second point. I don’t think this is happening short term because of finances. I think she needs a BP partner and it doesn’t look like she feels the same way.
In regard to LP, she did sound less apologetic and less defensive as the previous times I have heard her speak. I could be wrong of course as we all have our preconceived notions.
Seems like quite a few posters have sold into the ASM (which could explain the covering by legal shorts for first two weeks of June and likely same scenario for the past two weeks), in the hopes of buying back at lower levels post ASM. I personally don't see that the people who control the SP have much incentive to move price down and having to short at lower prices to get there. They have obviously had help this month, but who will continue to sell shares next week? The shorts are covering, but traders on this board seems to think that they will short it further down. Seems funny to me.
I am not worried, even if SP should get lower. I have a 24-48 month target on my shares anyways and will not sell and only add a little monthly to my grandkids custodial accounts, but nothing significant.
Not sure what your agenda is, but resorting to name calling always seem to be a good strategy.
Exactly
LOL, you do you.
She didn’t tip her cap either way. She has only explained the process but has not said anything about where in the process they are at. Trying to deduct either of your opinions is futile.
LG should not speak in public, period. I am sure he's a smart guy and does a great job, but his talents is not carried out when speaking in public.
So you are telling us he is honest and truthful?
I don’t really see them wanting to move it lower than the current 0.45 +- 0.02. That would mean shorting at lower prices with less upside. Unless you see retail selling in greater volume, which could happen. I think they seem quite happy keeping it at these levels. We will see this afternoon how many added shares they have shorted for first two weeks of this month to keep it at this level.
Kab,
It's not bashing. It's just a fact based on their prior engagement with shareholders.
I am long NWBO. I am not selling for years. That also has to do with the fact that I think it will be years until we realize a closer to true value for the science we own.
I also don't think that anything management says will have a negative impact on the SP. We are on the OTC and baring a massive buying interest, we are at the mercy of the manipulators. They decide exactly where they want the SP to go. They are likely not interested in shorting at much below the current level as they have proven that for some time now. They are also not likely to let it run as they have in the past, as we are getting closer to UK approval. In the past, they have known that they had time to bring it back down and short it at much higher SP levels. They did that to perfection. Now they hold it in an iron grip and have shown they are willing to use around 300k shares on a daily average to short and keep the SP in check.
I am still convinced that doing an exclusive deal with ONE BP for a certain amount of cancer indications is the only way to monetize the platform immediately. I have no clue how people are getting in their heads that they will do a franchise set up. That seems like a half baked idea to me. A large cash infusion from an exclusive deal with a major BP seems to me to be the only way we get a valuation that is big enough to get us off OTC. That's just my opinion. BP's don't need to own NWBO (Unlike all these other financiers). They just need exclusivity to add value and years to their current product. They might need a few percentage points in the deal (likely single digits) to show share holders a way to recoup the upfront cash infusion and the future milestone payments for additional RA approvals and Flaskworks approval.
Preaching for deaf ears. I have put my shares aside and do not expect any major increase in the SP for the foreseeable future. I add a little every week, but thats more for my grandkids custodial account. I have no intention of selling for the foreseeable future as I truly believe in the science. I don't think that there's much of a downside from hereon out, but I am not sure we have the right people in charge for the future. I have all the respect for the job done so far with getting us to where the science is now, but I think many mistakes have been made over the 4 years I have been invested. I voted yes on the warrants but that's because it seemed to me to be the only prudent way to deal with this short term. I am fine with whatever way other share holders voted and respect that they have to make decisions based on how they feel.
I know the cult members will come out in droves now but I am not going to get in any pissing contest on this board. I am fortunate enough to have blocked pretty much every fudster, so I am happily not going to see their responses.
I wish everyone a nice future with their investment and hope that we will get some sort of guidance this coming Saturday, though the odds seems low for that to happen. I think they should be more open as nothing they say will have a negative impact on the SP, because the Dark Forces have it in an iron grip and if it goes down, it is because they want it to and are willing to add significantly to their short position to get it there. We need to see closer to 10M shares traded daily before they will get nervous.
Sending questions to the company is futile. They know exactly what they are going to tell us. They might pretend to say that the information they are telling us is based on the questions they received, but that doesn't change the fact they already knows exactly what they want to give us.
Please don't confuse short volume with short interest.
link
The key is volume. It has cost them around 3M shares every two weeks (for the last couple of reporting periods) to walk the price down with very low volume, so added volume could mean they have to borrow in excess of that number to keep the price from moving up a lot. The higher the number of legal and reported shorts there is when approval hits, the greater the chance for a higher SP after approval. 55M currently is close to an all time high if not the actual all time high.
I think the most positive from today’s news is the one of the top 4% cancer center has confidence in NWBO to license their product to them. Yes, I understand that DCVax platform is being used in the trials, but it’s still not a given that they would have faith in the company generating revenue for their product in the future.
I agree it might be higher as the price could currently be kept artificially low in order to limit damages. Just pure speculation on my part.
Please don’t confuse short volume with shares shorted.
They are trading to move price down. In order for them to move it dow, like they have been, they are adding a 200k daily deficit in shares, which they legally short. This is pure based in the number of "Reported" shares short in NWBO. There might be more shorted shares that are not 'reported', but those are the official numbers. The total number as of 5/15 is just short of 52M. They added 2.6M during first two weeks of May.
https://otce.finra.org/otce/equityShortInterest
I think that if they are going to start covering, meaning buying shares, they will run into a problem of where to get the shares from. Who will sell to them? I think if they stop shorting the 200k shares daily that even the little buying pressure there is right now will create a very slight upward movement in SP. 200k shares shorted daily has moved the SP down about a percent a day, so without them continuing this, I think we will see the SP going up. I have a hard time seeing where they will get shares from initially if they start to cover. I am sure there might be some traders who are buying at these levels, who will exit at a 10% profit, but after those are gone, who will sell them shares?
Let's see how low they are willing to go. They added 4.2M legally shorted shares in last 2 weeks of April and first 2 weeks of May, which is approximately 200k a day. I am sure, based on the current trajectory that they have been adding the same numer daily since then. They are likely using them to trade during the day and try to move the price down and at the end of the day, the 200k is their trading deficit in shares. There's likely not much more added to longs and or traders than this number. From the total number of shares traded, there's almost no outside activity in this stock. Until we see 4-5M shares traded daily, it will be easy enough for them to keep moving down the SP at a relative low cost. We ar at or higher than the 52 week high in legal shorted shares, so they might not be willing to short at a much lower price. The lower the price, the less potential profit they will have in case of bad news. The MM's might be adding shares slowly to have shares in the event the shorts have to cover. Unlike most people here, I highly doubt the MM's have significant short positions in NWBO. Their crime is facilitating their clients by their spoofing, to assist the shorts in manipulating the SP.
Agree Bio. All the buildouts and hiring by BP has absolutely nothing to do with NWBO. It has everything to do with the race for immune therapies like the DCVax platform that these companies are slowly waking up to.
This is just my opinion. I am not in communication with the company or as far as I know, any investor who is. I do follow NWBO on social media and some of the responses below is based on what I have seen there. My opinion is solely about the business side of NWBO. I think at this time most of us agree that the DCVax platform has incredible potential and that the science part is incredible. I am basing this post on my years of experience as a corporate attorney and CEO of a publicly traded subsidiary. I have been involved with many M&A's as well as licensing deals.
1. There's no imminent buyout. The actual value of NWBO is so far removed from the potential value and I am gathering that LP is going after potential value in the negotiations (if any) dealing with a BO. LP's price appears to be what NWBO would be worth down the road and which is disconnected from today's share price.
2. I have seen people on social media talking about a private equity partner or mentioning companies that could be interested. What this would mean is dilution. The majority of these companies will not be able to do a licensing deal without having to acquire substantial equity in NWBO. They bring little to the table other than funds, though a few BP's might have product that align with the DCVax platform. There's, in my opinion, only 2 BP's who can do a deal without acquiring a large equity position. BMY and Merck both have products that could very much be dependent on the DCVax platform in the future to increase sales and extend patents for their products, Opdivo and Keytruda. These two companies can pay a large upfront payment for an exclusive licensing deal for a certain number of cancer indications that will increase the sales and extend the patents of their product. They would not have a need to own NWBO (though that is likely their wish) but merely an exclusive deal would be huge for them. They are also two companies with lots of cash and with very large oncology network. Any other BP or PE would not be in a similar position and we would likely see a fairly sizeable dilution if that is the way they decide to go.
3. Going at it alone is, again in my opinion, not really an option. LP said that BP's bring nothing more than a checkbook. That is likely true if the goal of NWBO was to only stay in the GBM or neuro oncology space. I am sure they will have no problem getting a fair share of the GBM patients without a BP. Once we get outside of this space, there will be a huge need for a BP who has an extensive oncology network and who has the funds (which we do not) to do a basket trial in as many as possible cancer indications and possibly finish Direct trial. If they go at it alone, those funds which would have to come from the income of Murcidencel for GBM, would be way down the road and it would be a while until they would be able to do any further basket trials and finish Direct. I am sure I am not alone when I say that the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow is not GBM, but all or most of solid tumor cancers.
4. Again, this is just my opinion. I simply don't see any realization of value of DCVax platform while we are on the OTC. I doubt even MHRA approval will get us much closer, though I have no idea how the market will react. I see many comparison cases being mentioned all over social media, but all of them deals with companies NOT on the OTC. The tremendous rise in these share prices are due to institutional investors getting onboard and taking up a large percentage of outstanding shares. This will not happen to us upon approval on the OTC. IMHO, this COULD happen if we do a non-equity exclusive licensing deal with BMY or MRK. They should be able to get a sizeable upfront payment for the exclusivity and some very nice milestone payments for additional RA's approving as well as Flaskworks approval (Eden). I think that, and an announcement that the BP will immediately start a basket trial and fund the completion of Direct, could get us to a point where the market cap would be high enough for a potential sale. They could include, as a way to forego any equity stake in NWBO upfront, a buyout clause that is triggered when the market cap reaches a value that would be 30-50% of what LP's number is, so that the BP would acquire NWBO at a 2-3x of market cap.
5. In my talks with other investors, they keep bringing up the science and all the amazing news we get from people involved with understanding immunology. I am well aware of how great things are lining up and I have no doubt that in the right situation, this is a potential paradigm shifting technology and that we are at the forefront of discoveries in immunocology. My worries have absolutely nothing to do with the science or even getting approved by MHRA. My worries are purely in regard to where we are at as a company to take advantage of what the future holds for us. Every months of delay in getting a basket rial going on this end is a month lost with potentially huge sales in the back end. I am sincerely hoping that every effort to get a partnership deal with one of the two key targets, in my opinion, are ongoing and that they (management) are aware that this is not about being a tough negotiator, but about getting a deal done. Even if it's not the perfect deal, it will be preferential to going at it alone or going through a heavy dilution via PE or smaller biotechs. IMHO, we are in dire need of getting the right BP partner to maximize the value of our incredible platform.
Have an amazing day and don't worry about the daily SP.
No, but if yours is dstock, I can write you a PM on there.
Twitter, yes for me it will always be Twitter, is a good place to check. A lot of former posters from here are on there and that seems to be the best place to find reasonable posts and DD about Northwest. There's actually discussions between NWBO longs, who don't always agree on things but carry out the conversations in a respectful matter. A lot of the posters don't actually post much, but will engage in conversations with replies to the posts there. It is not free from the HF social media army, but their posts are easily discarded as they like here, do not have any factual basis for there arguments.
I find it funny that some people think that getting a value of just under $5 per share when the current share price is $0.6375 is a joke. I do think that NWBO potentially is worth a lot more down the line, but it is down the line and it is potentially. If the potential of DCVax-L is as great as many of us thinks, that value will be realized by (for the sake of this discussion) Merck as well if they take over the company. I think that a company like Merck could realize the potential value of the DCVax platform much better than NWBO could ever do on their own, which means that the current MC of Merck of $326B could double and maybe even tripple in the next few years with the roll out of the DCVax platform, making the 7.7x the 24 for 1 deal would be possibly with 15-20x in a year or two. If something like this would ever happen, I would keep the shares of the acquiring company as they will have a great chance to add value to their SP.
It is important to note that I do not believe this deal will be done and the above is just a response to people thinking that any deal like that is a joke. I still hope that NWBO will become a license holder company and that a BP will be the licensee who will take the DCVax platform to the market and maybe in the long run, take over the company. I think that is the best way to achieve value, both short term and long term.
In regard to the discussion of no news before approval, I would be very dissapppointed if we didn't get major news before approval. I think that we have a great chance of seeing Flaskworks approval, Nature article/preliminary results of combo trial, basket trial or partnership agreement before we get approved. I don't think all of those will happen, but would be dissappointed if we didn't get at least one of those.
Last year I was hoping for and advocating for a partnership agreement with a BP. At this point in time, it might be more valuable to hold off with that until after approval. I think the value of waiting will be greater than the time it takes for approval.
As for the people who says that because of fundamentals, the SP will keep going down until approval if no news. I think that is absurd. Fundamentals are the fact that they have applied for MHRA approval, that they have the potential to solve the manufacturing which has plagued companies with highly individualiazed drugs, that we have seen indications that the combo treatments can increase the alteady significant potential of DCVax-L and that they have been in discussions with BP's about the future roll out of the DCVax platform. This makes the fundamentals in regards to future earnings potential look good and will be the reason the SP will not tank if no news before approval. The MM's and HF's do not live in a vacuum. They are aware of what is going on. There has been so little volume on a daily basis. 2M ($1.3M) shares traded is nothing in a company with a $700M MC.
Enjoy your weekend and get some fresh air.
JMHO
The problem in analyzing a potential move with NWBO is that almost all other companies I have seen us compared to are on a major exchange. This means that once they announce partnership deals, they will get a ton of institutional buying. We will not get that part on OTC. Institutional investors is the key for NWBO to achieve a close to fair evaluation. A major exchange is key to achieve that, There's a reason these HF's are shorting OTC stocks. The SP is much easier to control on OTC. It is much cheaper for the shorts and manipulators to keep the SP artificially low on OTC than to risk it getting to a level where an uplist is possible.
They have let the SP run a few times because they felt sure they could tank it on command. Now I realize that this was when there was still huge uncertainty among the general public about the outcome of DCVax-L and we are now in a completely different place. That is likely why they are trying to not let it run up as they do no longer feel certain that they can move it back down with the same ease as previously.
I am by no means an advocate for an R/S. That being said, there's definitely situations where such a move could be the right move. $MULN did one just before Christmas which was on the back of good news the same day and more good news a few days later. They did it to stay on Nasdaq, which is normally a death sentence. They are currently up around 70% since their R/S.
"IF" NWBO should choose to do so, I would hope it would be in conjunction with an approval and/or partnership deal and coordinated with an uplist at the time of the R/S. Without a simultaneous uplist AND approval and/or partnership agreement, this 'could' be ugly. Now, if they had a deal with a major exchange in place and great news, it seems like a no brainer. Once we get to a major exchange, we will see institutional buying if the approval or validation by a BP partnership happens simultaneously. We really need to be on a major exchange. We really need institutional ownership. Without both, we could linger on here even after approval in the $2ish range. As I said, I am not in favor of an R/S, unless it would be well coordinated with news and uplist. For now this doesn't seem to be on the table, so I will wait until we see some milestones realized before speculating about this again.
Just left a message with a former client of mine who is friends with him and has toured with him for years about DCVax. Just in case it’s not benign.
LOL X 100. This is exactly why I stopped posting here. I write a post supporting your DD and showing the fallacy in the poster who said his buddies were not 'messing' around with DCVax. You misinterpret it and start attacking me without really trying to read my post. This is not about relaying information, this is about posting something and then going abeshit defending it against FUD and obviously even supporting posts.
LOL. Have you seen any agreements between them? It would be fine if they signed an agreement, but absent an agreement, it would be highly inappropriate for them to 'mess' with DCVax. I am not saying that they won't enter into an agreement with Merck. I actually think Merck is the heavy favorite to do a deal with NWBO. My point was that the posters two friends not working on DCVax was only natural and not a negative as they have yet to enter into an agreement.