I find it funny that some people think that getting a value of just under $5 per share when the current share price is $0.6375 is a joke. I do think that NWBO potentially is worth a lot more down the line, but it is down the line and it is potentially. If the potential of DCVax-L is as great as many of us thinks, that value will be realized by (for the sake of this discussion) Merck as well if they take over the company. I think that a company like Merck could realize the potential value of the DCVax platform much better than NWBO could ever do on their own, which means that the current MC of Merck of $326B could double and maybe even tripple in the next few years with the roll out of the DCVax platform, making the 7.7x the 24 for 1 deal would be possibly with 15-20x in a year or two. If something like this would ever happen, I would keep the shares of the acquiring company as they will have a great chance to add value to their SP.
It is important to note that I do not believe this deal will be done and the above is just a response to people thinking that any deal like that is a joke. I still hope that NWBO will become a license holder company and that a BP will be the licensee who will take the DCVax platform to the market and maybe in the long run, take over the company. I think that is the best way to achieve value, both short term and long term.
In regard to the discussion of no news before approval, I would be very dissapppointed if we didn't get major news before approval. I think that we have a great chance of seeing Flaskworks approval, Nature article/preliminary results of combo trial, basket trial or partnership agreement before we get approved. I don't think all of those will happen, but would be dissappointed if we didn't get at least one of those.
Last year I was hoping for and advocating for a partnership agreement with a BP. At this point in time, it might be more valuable to hold off with that until after approval. I think the value of waiting will be greater than the time it takes for approval.
As for the people who says that because of fundamentals, the SP will keep going down until approval if no news. I think that is absurd. Fundamentals are the fact that they have applied for MHRA approval, that they have the potential to solve the manufacturing which has plagued companies with highly individualiazed drugs, that we have seen indications that the combo treatments can increase the alteady significant potential of DCVax-L and that they have been in discussions with BP's about the future roll out of the DCVax platform. This makes the fundamentals in regards to future earnings potential look good and will be the reason the SP will not tank if no news before approval. The MM's and HF's do not live in a vacuum. They are aware of what is going on. There has been so little volume on a daily basis. 2M ($1.3M) shares traded is nothing in a company with a $700M MC.
Enjoy your weekend and get some fresh air.
JMHO
Bullish
