This is just my opinion. I am not in communication with the company or as far as I know, any investor who is. I do follow NWBO on social media and some of the responses below is based on what I have seen there. My opinion is solely about the business side of NWBO. I think at this time most of us agree that the DCVax platform has incredible potential and that the science part is incredible. I am basing this post on my years of experience as a corporate attorney and CEO of a publicly traded subsidiary. I have been involved with many M&A's as well as licensing deals.
1. There's no imminent buyout. The actual value of NWBO is so far removed from the potential value and I am gathering that LP is going after potential value in the negotiations (if any) dealing with a BO. LP's price appears to be what NWBO would be worth down the road and which is disconnected from today's share price.
2. I have seen people on social media talking about a private equity partner or mentioning companies that could be interested. What this would mean is dilution. The majority of these companies will not be able to do a licensing deal without having to acquire substantial equity in NWBO. They bring little to the table other than funds, though a few BP's might have product that align with the DCVax platform. There's, in my opinion, only 2 BP's who can do a deal without acquiring a large equity position. BMY and Merck both have products that could very much be dependent on the DCVax platform in the future to increase sales and extend patents for their products, Opdivo and Keytruda. These two companies can pay a large upfront payment for an exclusive licensing deal for a certain number of cancer indications that will increase the sales and extend the patents of their product. They would not have a need to own NWBO (though that is likely their wish) but merely an exclusive deal would be huge for them. They are also two companies with lots of cash and with very large oncology network. Any other BP or PE would not be in a similar position and we would likely see a fairly sizeable dilution if that is the way they decide to go.
3. Going at it alone is, again in my opinion, not really an option. LP said that BP's bring nothing more than a checkbook. That is likely true if the goal of NWBO was to only stay in the GBM or neuro oncology space. I am sure they will have no problem getting a fair share of the GBM patients without a BP. Once we get outside of this space, there will be a huge need for a BP who has an extensive oncology network and who has the funds (which we do not) to do a basket trial in as many as possible cancer indications and possibly finish Direct trial. If they go at it alone, those funds which would have to come from the income of Murcidencel for GBM, would be way down the road and it would be a while until they would be able to do any further basket trials and finish Direct. I am sure I am not alone when I say that the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow is not GBM, but all or most of solid tumor cancers.
4. Again, this is just my opinion. I simply don't see any realization of value of DCVax platform while we are on the OTC. I doubt even MHRA approval will get us much closer, though I have no idea how the market will react. I see many comparison cases being mentioned all over social media, but all of them deals with companies NOT on the OTC. The tremendous rise in these share prices are due to institutional investors getting onboard and taking up a large percentage of outstanding shares. This will not happen to us upon approval on the OTC. IMHO, this COULD happen if we do a non-equity exclusive licensing deal with BMY or MRK. They should be able to get a sizeable upfront payment for the exclusivity and some very nice milestone payments for additional RA's approving as well as Flaskworks approval (Eden). I think that, and an announcement that the BP will immediately start a basket trial and fund the completion of Direct, could get us to a point where the market cap would be high enough for a potential sale. They could include, as a way to forego any equity stake in NWBO upfront, a buyout clause that is triggered when the market cap reaches a value that would be 30-50% of what LP's number is, so that the BP would acquire NWBO at a 2-3x of market cap.
5. In my talks with other investors, they keep bringing up the science and all the amazing news we get from people involved with understanding immunology. I am well aware of how great things are lining up and I have no doubt that in the right situation, this is a potential paradigm shifting technology and that we are at the forefront of discoveries in immunocology. My worries have absolutely nothing to do with the science or even getting approved by MHRA. My worries are purely in regard to where we are at as a company to take advantage of what the future holds for us. Every months of delay in getting a basket rial going on this end is a month lost with potentially huge sales in the back end. I am sincerely hoping that every effort to get a partnership deal with one of the two key targets, in my opinion, are ongoing and that they (management) are aware that this is not about being a tough negotiator, but about getting a deal done. Even if it's not the perfect deal, it will be preferential to going at it alone or going through a heavy dilution via PE or smaller biotechs. IMHO, we are in dire need of getting the right BP partner to maximize the value of our incredible platform.
Have an amazing day and don't worry about the daily SP.
Bullish
