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More importantly.... someone wants in.
They have until then but the consensus here seems to be that they will release prior to the conference they are speaking at.
Could be wrong and they play it out to the last minute like their other filings but it would be a smart play depending on what they hope to accomplish at this conference.
It was amended to account for the shares that they purchased the other week.
The following is the statement that I have never been a fan of with respect to the Series A shares.
We are waiting on the 10K so they get more time. I think they can take up to 90 days to release.
They are speaking at a VC/PE conference mid-january. The expectation is they would release their results prior to that.
The news was already priced in. The facts contained with the PR were known last week when the SEC filings went live and there was a very real bump in price because of it.
Niraj and Eric accounted for 54% of Tuesday's volume.
Tuesday ended 13 sessions in a row of 100k+ volume. First time it has happened since June. Not sure if this has any significance whatsoever. Ha.
Who pays commissions on trades anymore? Regular trades are commoditized at this point and the race to 0 has concluded.
I do, however, understand your frustration with the evaporation of our volume.
I think the BS is finally starting to get to me. I also think Bri798 may have called it Mid-Nov.
December 15?
I don't think there is an option. Numbers are due 12/14 IIRC.
Anemic volume so far today, unfortunately.
Everyone loaded up waiting for the Q and now we wait.
Valid question that I have raised in the past and haven't really gotten a good answer to.
One of the things that works in our favor is that Niraj/Eric hold 87ish percent of the stock. If they were to sell off BidiVapor on the back end they would basically be lighting the shares on fire.
Kaivallabs, which holds the patent, is a wholly owned subsidiary so there is some protection on that front.
Interesting news but I don't think so.
If KAVL share price was locked into the broader tobacco market I would expect us to have higher volumes and wider recognition than we do.
I think our recent trading is due to the market tightening as we approach the earnings deadline. The earnings are likely going to be exactly what most of us are expecting. We have greatly improved trading volume over the last 10-15 sessions so I think there we are also benefitting from marginally improved recognition since the last 8-k/PR that mentioned Nov Revs.
What I, personally, am uncertain of is how we trade until Q1 FY21 is released. I am expecting the price to retreat after whatever earnings pop we receive but how far is anyones guess. We've also got the 10-K and this conference that KAVL is speaking at which could buoy the stock price.
I've said it before and I will say it again - I think the $1 neighborhood is going to be tough to break through and will trade sideways for a while. This is due to my assumption that a lot of shareholders that are long will take the opportunity to book some profits around there. This prediction gets tossed out the window if there is a seismic shift in brand recognition and interest from new money.
Strong volume to start the morning.
Seems like my innocuous question got you pretty fired up.
IIRC there was a whole lot of hysteria here in the US about vaping and unintended side effects of doing it. My understanding is that a lot of that fall out was attributed to basement brand or self made concoctions rather than bonafide brands. We likely wouldn't have the PMTA process if the ENDS market didn't explode into an unregulated cesspool where anyone could throw some stuff together and call it e-juice.
Since your talking about studies though - I'm sure you are aware that correlation is not the same as causation/attribution. Further on the topic of scientific studies...... You can make a dataset suggest just about any outcome if you structure it correctly, which you alluded to in your response. The firms that do this type of work are part of the "product defense" industry.
Their sole objective is to produce studies that introduce doubt into the conversation. This doubt provides ammo for the companies or industries to lobby against regulations because "the science isn't settled yet." This has been seen time and time again with various industries such as tobacco (cigs are good for you), fossil fuels (global warming doesn't exist), sugar (low fat diets are the key to health), chemical manufacturing (Teflon (PFAS/Forever chemicals) are magical and there are no issues with them).
As you also alluded to - Coke and Coffee could be bad for you. As with anything though - "The dose makes the poison" which is why we have LD50. Numerous people die every year due to overexposure to dihydrogen monoxide.
Have any issues like popcorn lung been attributed to legitimate brands (blu, juul, etc) of e-cigs or has it all been associated with the "bathtub hooch" equivalents in the e-cig/vape world?
So what does anything that's happening now matter if you have no exit strategy in the near term? This is a buying opportunity pure and simple. Let whoever dump as many shares as they want. If you've got capital available buy them up, if you don't take the winter off and come back in the spring.
What is your exit strategy?
If you are long to hell with putting out the Q. I'm hoping this things keeps dragging lower so I can load up.
I'm hopeful Q4 is going to hit $42M but that is just wishful thinking. There wasn't a whole lot of news in Q3 that would suggest pumped up revenues from new distributors.
As far as expenses are concerned we know that $125k/month is getting paid to QuickFillRX. So that accounts for $375k in Q3 and will likely represent $375k in Q4. Total salary/taxes/benefits (assumed) for Eric and Niraj are probably $35k/month or $105k/Q. That gets us to almost $500k/Q in expense. Tack on some other lower paying wages/salaries, lease payment on their warehouse, etc and I think we are probably looking at $700lk/Q in expenses easy.
QuickFill will also receive additional monies but that should register under commissions.
They had a 13.6% gross profit margin on Q3. I bumped that margin a little for 42M and 52M respectively assuming that they would get improved purchasing terms from Bidi Vapor on the additional volume.
If my math was correct they got a 2% bump in gross margin from Q2 to Q3. CAVEAT I pulled these numbers out of my butt right after the last Q was released and can't recall if my predictions properly accounted for the mis-reported numbers in Q2.
Good point regarding the asset. The patent should definitely show up on the balance sheet as an asset. It will hurt cash flow but shouldn't necessarily be detrimental to the P&L. I'm not sure how significant attorneys fees, etc would be for the type of transaction so I don't know if they would have a material impact on the finances as they would definitely show up as an expense. I also don't know if the acquisition had a condensed timeline or if some of those expenses could have been recognized in Q2.
Negative. My EPS estimate was based on 272M O/S.
In the neighborhood.
My EPS calculations still stand though. These are the numbers where I thought Q4 might fall back in mid-sept.
42M in revenue = $6.5M "Gross Profit," $3.99M Net Income, $0.014 EPS
52M in revenue = $8.9M "Gross Profit," $5.33M Net Income, $0.019 EPS
The patent purchase occurred in Q4 so I would assume it will adversely affect net income and, by extension, EPS to the tune of $1.5M.
You are correct. I was looking at Authorized shares.
There are approximately 1B shares and 300M were retired. This will give us an approximately 33% boost in EPS.
Unless they blow my expectations out of the water I don't see EPS being above $0.015-$0.02 for Q4. They could also improve EPS if they reduce cost of goods sold which I don't see happening at this point.
Haha. I had a big bid sitting at .33. I was next bid up after they splashed but didn't make it that low. Scored some at .40 on way down though.
Some games being played today. That ask disappeared. 10-15 minutes earlier there was 190k on ask @ .43 and it disappeared. In the past I have noticed 5-10k blocks on ask disappear and move higher as soon as any quantity of stocks were purchased at that price.
Just need to figure out how you value the stock and keep your head down. I've got bids lined up in case things like this happen as it's been seen before.
Someone splashed the pot and dropped 50-60k shares at market again.
That doesn't really answer the question that was asked.
I know that KAVL's earnings look great.
The question was is that because units are flying off the shelf or because distributors and retailers are building inventories. If it is the latter revenues may dip once the inventories are built out.
So how do we square this KAVL's revenues? Obviously revenues are much stronger. Is there a lot of latitude with Neilsen's numbers or are KAVL's revenues so strong because customers are making big orders to fill up their inventories?
Also - Are there really any warehouses full of these products or is this "just in time delivery" model.
Q4 '19 and Q1 '20 were filed. For the 9 months ending Q3 we had .01 EPS. It's not a new company that didn't report. It's a company that reported and didn't have any revenue.
Obviously O/S shares have been reduced since the start of Q4 so that will affect the EPS in Q4. They seem to have a high cost of revenue that will adversely impact net revenues.
Based on the patent purchase I believe they shelled out 1.5M which again is going to adversely affect cash on hand and net revenues. They are also going to announce the issuance of securities in the next 6 months that could be depressing the share price as well.
I personally have some concerns about the nature of the Preferred shares. If you read through the agreement they can be converted to common stock prior to 2023 if there is a change of control or basically anytime the board and a majority of shareholders agree. Niraj and Eric control ~87% of the shares. They are also likely to represent at least 2 votes of the board and anyone else on the board is likely to be closely aligned.
I'm not saying there is anything nefarious going on but these are things that could give investors pause.
I think it's also important to note that this discussion was born out of my comment that there was no critical analysis going on and was really just commiseration; that comment certainly wasn't directed at you, Daiello.
I am still long on the company and looking to continue buying.
Depends on how you are calculating the P/E.
Using the TTM we are right there with respect to the current price. Obviously with forward looking we aren't.
Edit: I hadn't seen your longer post where you laid out how/why you think the EPS should be X. I think there is merit to your calculations and I think they are realistic. Unfortunately we don't have any revenue forecasts from the company that could guide forward looking P/E calculations.
We also can't factor in how the market at large will decide to calculate the P/E.
The reality is probably somewhere in them middle of our two positions when you account for the selling pressure.
PREACH
There is a lot of speculation about earnings and what the share price is but I see very little critical analysis about why it's believed that price is warranted.
I think this should be trading at 25-30x which based on current EPS we are right there. I think FY20 will come in at .027-.03EPS. Annualizing that EPS I think we are still at/under a dollar.
There are some unfortunate market forces at work and all we can do is buckle up. Coming here to commiserate about wild speculation isn't doing anyone any favors.
I had received the same reply from the company when I reached out.
There is no "they." When RSU's are issued the vesting schedule is assigned then and there. If you are so concerned about the illuminati sticking it to you go through all of the filings and build out a table of who owns what. Anything prior KAVL is probably eligible for vesting and is dependent upon them reaching out to the TA.
Per the compensation plan Niraj and Eric would appear to have 600k RSUs between them that were vested prior to August 5. Another 300k will vest on Nov 5.
Niraj and Eric control approximately 204M shares of common stock and 3M shares of Class A preferred. With today's shares outstanding there are 73M shares that Niraj and Eric do not control.
Now if you really want to get your panties in a bunch you can worry about the securities offering mentioned as a way to finance the patent acquisition.
Got ya. Can't even imagine the shit show behind the scenes if the shares were improperly released.
I'm not sure we have hit 6M in volume since early Sept. Any number of possibilities but I'd imagine they are still sitting on a bunch.
Synthetic Nicotine Patent
While the non-addictive aspect of the patent is intriguing I find myself wondering if there is a more practical application for it.
The patent could be a hedge against the FDA dropping the hammer on tobacco at some point in the future.
Also - I wonder if this patent is the beginning of their vertical integration. I have absolutely no idea what nicotine extract from tobacco costs. If they can scale production sufficiently I wonder if they could reach a point of price parity or even price superiority vs tobacco derived nicotine. If they are able to accomplish this they will be able to cut out tobacco entirely and keep more revenues under the Kaival umbrella.
Someone really wants .50 price.
Find it intriguing that price keeps dipping on larger lots and then gets back to .50 with 200 share orders.
Right there with you. Only reason to be against a further dip near term is you need to get capital out or you don't have the stomach to sleep on it for a while.
I would thoroughly enjoy the opportunity to load up lower.
The fact that bids are stacked at .35 and the volume is in the gutter leaves me optimistic that maybe status quo is shifting.
Maybe they are taking a breather, got a quick cash infusion and are content to hold for a while, or any number of other reasons. Bids at .35 would seem to be right where someone was previously happy to get rid of some shares at.
Assuming they aren't taking a breather and they still wanted to unload I would be shocked if they didn't clear the 100k on bid at $.35.