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Launch authorized generic today, fire entire sales team, stop advertising.....US is still worth $3 - $5.......sell company for $15 - $18.
There really isn’t much more to flesh out....
Damn, I thought she would bump us back to $35!! Good to hear there's a trend and it's not flat or down.
Thanks for posting, Ralphy.
I was paying more than the $400 at Walgreens (pre-deductible), but switched over to a CVS pharmacy, which for some reason, had a lower price on the 90-day than Walgreens. At Walgreens, it was close to $600 for a 90-day supply, pre-deductible.
I'm on a HDHP and just hit my deductible as well. Went from ~ $400 (for 90 day supply) to $9.
I would be curious if you just hit your deductible or there was meaningful change at Kaiser. Let us know when you find out.
Also - ask Kaiser about the stooopid Covid study and when those results will be out. My guess is as soon as 99% of the US is vaccinated.
Nice! You didn't just hit your deductible, did you?
What do you mean? Branded Vascepa is already in every US pharmacy. It’s just a different bottle they now receive saying generic V.
I agree with onerag, Supreme Court is the only logical delay of launching AG. They need to sh!t can 600 sales people like yesterday.
I agree with EU and ROW, but currently they’re on pace to burn $100M this year with the increase in opex and flat (declining?) revs.
Time to pull the trigger on the authorized generic and can the sales team, if you can even call them that.
What in the serious fu@k is happening during these 40,000 hours per week?
I'm praying it was laid out by the AMRN lawyer more clearly than your notes :)-
What if you inserted 800 Amarin sales reps into the first part of your equation. We would be expecting only one “convinced” doctor per month. What would that equal?
Right! As some other posters pointed out....we should just be happy scripts aren't decreasing. LoL
Maybe my expectations were too high, but with the country re-opened for Q2, I would have expected a flood of pent up demand that these S(heros) could have mined out in 40,000 hours each week.
Another 40,000 hours in the book. 2,400,000 minutes 100% dedicated to selling their only drug, Vascepa.
Awesome results!!!!
If sold $16 - $18
If GIA $5 - $7.
Agreed. We are now trading at July 2017 levels. Thanks for holding for these past 4 years.
PS - don’t point out dilution. I’m crabby and likely to snap at you.
Should hear something on KP trial this month. As you said, we should be ready to roll full results out just as everyone is vaccinated.
LoL - so now our expectation of 800 salespeople is..."scripts would be going down without them, flat is actually pretty good"
Then fire all 800 sales people and hire 100, 200, 300 whatever people to just scorch Earth with discussions and negotiations with insurers to make sure your ONLY drug has great coverage. This a failure of not having the right members on your BOD that have been through this situation before and can strategically guide you through the challenges that everyone knew were coming.
We're talking a company with 1,000 people for 1 drug. Figure it out.
Same here on the $6B. Wouldn't think twice.
Since FDA approval, the sales team has spent 3,100,000 hours selling ONLY Vascepa. ONLY VASCEPA!!
I mean, what the literal fuck.
That would be someone spending every minute of every day (in a work week) debunking stuff. That's a shit ton of debunking - I like it.
Just think.....that still leaves 39,960 hours of people spending every minute of their work day selling 1 drug. That's it - your ONLY responsibility. Scripts are flat. What is happening in these 39,960 hours? That's EVERY.....SINGLE.....WEEK......
It's just unconscionable.
That's actually really funny. Fast-paced environment. What a joke. We're 16 months in to Covid and still don't have anything concrete to either green or red light this. We also have 800 reps that spend 40,000 hours per week and haven't been able to grow scripts YoY.
IMO, their BOD is a bunch of D-class pharma bums that were WAY over their heads for a task this tall.
Let's face it, AMRN got lucky with Reduce-It. Let's hope they can still parlay that into a $10B deal.
I suppose the remaining risk to further downside is an absolute failure on EU pricing. Is there more risk to that than we all think? Amarin seems confident, but they were uber-confident ahead of ANDA disaster too....
AMRN now trading at just over 1X current revs when factoring out cash + deferred tax assets for NOLs. Mind you none of those revs are even from the EU, which is worth $15/share by itself, worst case.
Best buying opportunity since summer of '18?
Can someone fire off a final "this is the last buying opportunity in a seemingly endless number of buys ops" message?
Maybe Chas for old time's sake?
"Goldman was the lead manager four months ago when Immunomedics sold an additional $288 million of stock at $17.50 a share, Bloomberg reported."
There are some similarities there, huh?
Good post - thx. GSK/Teva seems to be trending in the right direction.
Wait, has anyone else been asking this same question for the past week?
Glad it’s getting some attention finally. Too much confirmation bias here.
I get all that, but the very first thing the SC looks at is “What did FC of Appeals” say. No one here seems think this is much of an issue. I strongly disagree. I’ll leave this alone now, and time will tell.
It certainly seems people are noticing the high # of Rule 36s, which is good. I would still love to know how many Rule 36s are actually taken up by the SC as compared to cases where the Federal Circuit has actually written an opinion though. I'm guessing the odds are staggeringly against the Rule 36s. Yee mentioned that the Rule 36 gave Amarin almost zero chance of getting En Banc or SC review.
Meowza - I lost all faith in oversight and supervisory authority within our legal system on Sept. 3rd.
Look....I get all that, but would still love to know how often they hear a Rule 36 vs. non-Rule 36. If the former is 10% of the latter, we're screwed. If I was a SC Justice, I'd personally say they didn't get a crap, so why should I?
If anyone knows how often the SC hears Rule 36 cases, that would be about the most useful info these days....
Nah, that’s unfortunately not how it works. It should, but doesn’t.
I’m trying to handicap the likelihood of the SC taking the case. If they’ve only ever taken, say, a few Rule 36s, then the odds are much worse than what some believe here. If they’ve taken a bunch, we’ll then, our odds may very well be as high as 10-15%.
Has the SC ever taken a case that was Rule 36d at Appeals Court?
Capt - serious question. Who’s going to listen to this? It will be promoted on Amarin’s Twitter account and is linked to the TTYH website, where it’s almost impossible to find any connection to Vascepa. Who truly follows the Amarin Twitter account?
Answer.....a dozen or two retail shareholders will listen.
The podcast could have the greatest Vascepa content ever, but they aren’t going to reach anyone. Just clueless at every turn.
Draftkings has the over/under of podcast listeners at 7. I’m taking the under at -100.
Another 40,000 hours in the books. That's a shit ton of hours.
Good to see someone is growing Vascepa scripts!
This is where I don't understand the generic strategy at all, and honestly, I'm starting to think they're pretty lousy business people that caught lightning in a bottle in Reno. It's checkmate whichever direction they go. Amarin has supply locked up, generics can't beat them on price, Amarin can launch authorized generic and lower price just a tad and remove coupon, and they're likely infringing.
What CEO thinks that's a winning strategy from a risk/reward standpoint?
And yet we trade at the same price as January 2018......
Isn’t the “generic mission statement” that we’re all about lowering costs for consumers. We all know that’s BS in this case, but damn the irony.
They said 800 reps + managers on the YE CC. They didn’t mention any different number on the recent Q1 CC.
Honestly, I don’t care if it’s 200, 400, 600 or 800. It doesn’t change my opinion of how things are going.
You’re absolutely right, drug reps don’t do that. But at some point when 800 drugs reps are returning zero, you have to pivot when you’re a GD one drug company with 1,000 employees. Embarrassing execution on every level.
So, I had been getting my script from Walgreens for the past 2 years and just switched over to CVS this month due to a change in my prescription benefit provider. As is customary, CVS called Walgreens to get the script details. CVS then called me and mentioned that they'd likely have my script filled by EOD Friday. I didn't hear back on Friday or thru the weekend so called on Monday and they said they were ordering more V because they didn't have enough to fill the 360 pills. I called again today (Wed) and they mentioned they still couldn't find supply. I then figured I better ask if they were looking for branded V vs. gV, and she said admitted that she had been looking for gV this whole time, despite the fact that I had been getting branded V from Walgreens for 2 years.
Good news - generic V supply is low.
Bad news - 1,000 employees of a 1 drug company have been ineffective in working with prescription benefit providers.
Oh, and by the way.....the cost for gV was ~ $190, and the cost for branded V with coupon was $9.