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TraderGL - you were 2nd closest in both - good calls. MJ Cowboy was .1m off on rev and MX10001 and 800 both were 7 stores off with 2100.
MJ Cowboy and 800 you won - send your address to GoLongCVSI gmail com
Cubs - you're welcome. I wish your 17.5 was correct. Maybe Q4... Here's to 98 wins next season
You're welcome. I learned a lot from this board and appreciate it. I spend a lot of time here and most people are decent, so why not.
MX10001 - I sponsored the contest. Was hoping to give it to someone with a higher store number, but glad it will help your wife! Email your address to GoLongCVSI@gmail.com and what gummy flavor you would like. Nice guess
Carl - the NASD comment was generic. That they are in a routine Q&A period with NASD and they will keep us updated.
Based growth lower than the baked in optimism, low store count vs CWEB, I got out of 75% of my positions at the open. I will wait until this settles and turns back up based on the fundamentals. I still believe in this, and think TTM PS justifies $8, but do not want to give back in the near term. Is $5.40 the bottom?
Price to sales - Using 18 multiple (which is 5 to 10 times lower than MJ leaders), I got it at $8.00 fair value with $13.6 million on trailing 12 months Price to Sales
Q3 Rev winner: MJ Cowboy - his post of 29067 estimated $13.5m and actual was $13.6. Pretty impressive guess! TraderGL $14.3 was second. This was the low end of the range, and our average guesses on this board were way too high, perhaps hoping for the same amazing Q over Q increase from Q1 to Q2. Annual increase still fantastic, earnings - all great. But clearly this random sample, this board and comments skew rose-colored glasses.
Store winner - 2093 - winners were MX10001 2100 (post 32656) and 800 who guessed 2100; User-007 was close with 2060.
I have the revenue guesses. Pool closes at 8pm eastern... I will post them this evening... Get your last picks in now.
Thanks Jefra - I started to look at EPS as well. the issue I get stuck on is the multiple and estimating future expense growth. As you say - no one really knows right now, which allows for a nice blue sky. This is my largest investment by far, so I am very interested in making sure I know a reasonable floor too.
I remember a number of people had a valuation discussion like this in late July/early August after Q2 and despite all the bs the valuation stayed within that range of estimates from $4.25-$5.75ish. I'm hoping tomorrow night gives us a new solid and conservative floor a couple of dollars higher from here.
My PS valuation guesses into earnings using price to sales. (I would appreciate any feedback from more experienced valuation analysts.)
Through Q2 our trailing 12 mo sales are $33.2mil divided by shares out of 93 million, gives .36 cents sales per share. With stock price at $6.40 market is giving us a Price to Sales multiple of 18.
So, holding the same multiple of 18 for now, I would say Q3 rev of $15 mil should price us at $8.24 (=18x.458 sales per share); sales of $17 mil should price us at $8.64; and sales of $20 mil should price us at $9.22.
If the market values the management execution on another solid growth quarter and/or starts to value Farm Bill legality more significantly and overall growth of CBD market, the multiple could go up to 20, 22, 25+? Multiples that are still 1/3 of the top MJ companies.
So for PS multiple of 22, earnings of 15m could price to $10.08; $17 mil rev could price to $10.56; and 20mil rev $11.26.
And just for fun... PS multiple of 30 and Sales of $24 mil = $16.62. Once can hope to be shocked to the upside :)
And for real fun, perhaps a short time Tlry-like stupid valuation bubble: $20 mil sales and 100 multiple= $51.20.
Q3 rev and store count Random Analysts pool open. I got all the posts from Sunday - Lester, Untuned, Wiley etc. thanks
Sleuth was the hemp certification revealed at the Hemp Industry conference last weekend? Great find and thanks for all the sharp info.
Q3 "Random Analysts" revenue pool still open until - submit your Q3 rev guess and store count. Winner gets their choice of CVSI CBD Gummies. post your picks soon
Agreed Balding - that is why I am in this stock
I would love to be wrong...
An EOD run looks unlikely, but I would love it. I think yesterday was our weekend gift.
Re float - Yes - we discussed this last week or early this week. Go read. Was in Q2 release.
Carl - I think it is the Farm Bill and hemp legality.
However if it is Mona and clear that is a problem to NASD, that would be a short delay - work out his exit, reapply.
Re uplist and Mona: I will sell all of my CVSI stock if management and lawyers did not start their NASD application process with the question of Mona as a disqualifier. The case against him was settled just 50 days before we applied to NASD. I trust the new CEO and CVSI lawyers asked some obvious BKK type questions.
I agree with AP - this is the issue of legality for NASD and they were *trying* to time it with Farm Bill legalization. So now, have to wait until lame duck farm bill. I give it early December and Merry NASD Xmas to the patient.
Kyle - what is your q3 prediction?
Kyle - post your guess for Q3 revenue.
CV SCIENCES, INC. TO HOST THIRD QUARTER 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS CONFERENCE CALL ON WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2018
Download as PDFOctober 31, 2018
LAS VEGAS, Oct. 31, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- CV Sciences, Inc. (OTCQB:CVSI), preeminent supplier and manufacturer of industry leading hemp extract brand, PlusCBD Oil™, announced that it is scheduled to host a conference call to discuss its third quarter 2018 financial results on Wednesday, November 7, 2018, at 1:15pm PT/4:15pm ET.
CV Sciences’ Chief Executive Officer, Joseph Dowling, will lead the call to provide an operational and financial summary of the third quarter ended September 30, 2018.
Event: CV Sciences Third Quarter 2018 Financial Results Call
Date: Wednesday, November 7, 2018
Time: 1:15pm PT/4:15pm ET
Telephone access (U.S. and Canada): 877-407-8293
Telephone access (International): 201-689-8349
Live webcast: CV Sciences Investor Section
In order to ensure adequate time for any software downloads that may be necessary to listen to the webcast, attendees are encouraged to connect to the website 10-15 minutes prior to the live event.
If you are unable to participate in the call at this time, a replay will be available for 14 days starting on November 7, 2018, at approximately 7:30pm PT/10:30pm ET. To access the replay, please dial 1-877-660-6853 in the U.S. and 1-201-612-7415 for international callers. The conference ID# is 13684643.
I don't think we will get early release this Q. In retrospect, I'm guessing the early release (Aug 1) was related to the NASD application that was submitted the week prior (july 23) and perhaps to attract more to the annual meeting a few days after. (Aug 4) That does not seem to be the case right now. The 6th is not confirmed for earnings. Was up, now down. IR said that date is not confirmed by CVSI yet. So we'll see. My guess is they may have reconsidered releasing on election night.
Bandidojoe - yes - I am compiling and graphing. Will be happy to post the Random Analyst picks after earnings are posted. The auditing firm will not allow early release.
I believe in the wisdom of the crowd... until you all let me down...
Thanks - new Q3 picks are in.
Allseeing - that guess is for Q3 ended Sept 30, right? I think gummy effect will help in Q4.
Q3 Pool still open (closing soon) - submit your revenue guess and store count guess.
Winner gets your choice of CVSI CBD gummies. 30 guesses so far and no shirts guessed
After that video this AM still time to revise... ;)
All four of mine up for now CVSI, CWBHF, APHQF, TCNNF.
Canadian MJ due for a rebound after panics of last two weeks.
CWBHF was caught in Canadian MJ downdraft despite being hemp CBD.
But CVSI held strong.
Amazing demand- thanks for the video
I am glad I bought CWBHF yesterday and on this dip again this AM. If they have financials later this month comp to rate of increase for CVSI and other CBD tics, this is a great price... Some Pig
It was hard, but in the middle of the bloodbath yesterday, I am glad I bought more Aphira. I think that will be a very good buy in a couple of weeks. Go APHQF
truly is. I am amazed at the lack of awareness of the CBD area with this and CVSI. November should be a good month for both and better at this valuation.
When I toured the distribution center with the CEO in September, he showed me the amazing volume going out of their bulk sales warehouse. They were just keeping up with the number of trucks and pallets going out. He said, "and the on-line retail side is managed out of a different facility and is very active." So yes, I saw the bulk distribution operation with my own eyes and it was humming two months ago. I'm kind of guessing that was not all a fake operation set up on the spur of the moment just to impress me :)
Great to see the accelerated on-line sales add to that as well.
CWEB is in our same biz; I think it is just getting trashed by dropping canadian mj stocks?
Of course. What I mean is, do companies have pricing power to sell for 50% or 2x more when supply is so tight? to keep revenue up? Or do distribution agreements regulate the high side of pricing (pun intended)
Longer term, yes. But we need product. It doesn't seem that companies will be able to raise prices in the near term?
Is this what is dragging down Aphira today?
Thanks Ania and JWBlue.