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Noah Hamman of Advisor Shares is on Twitter and very accessible to ask questions like this. Love the June and Dec calls here.
Bums I guess you are trying to warn people to be very careful with options. I agree. However the rest of this post is silly. You have no idea how I trade, I’ve traded longer than you and I have made a lot of money with calls on ascending cannabis market through the fall and into January. It doesn’t always work this way and I lost some money in 2019 but was cautious on my losers so proportionally it’s way ahead. This is an exceptional period as cannabis improves in CA, moves to legal in US, and will get a huge accelerant as we get to SAFE Act, institutional money, and then broad Us retail investing. Im willing to take smart risks on ITM or just slightly OTM calls in this kind of transformative market. Good luck and to anyone interested in options, get educated and manage risk - don’t treat it like the lottery.
Good luck - be smart and learn the math and risks re options. They are powerful and can be confusing at first.
Great
Yes some good intro books by Bill Johnson. He is one of the coaches in the Najaraian Market Rebellion team as well. I have taken that course and like the instructors. Has paid off really well in combo with options on APHA, VFF, MSOS.
Options have been tremendous here. Congrats MX
Market still digging this mashup - I liked the call today too. Simon good coverage on CNBC later too.
Indeed. It’s been on a tear. Assets under management are on pace to get to 1 Billion by end of January. Incredible. Call options are hot here.
Let’s go MSOS!
Keep grinding north MSOS - so many good trends behind this one.
This one has been ripping - fun to see. No love from the board
I think it will have a nice rally after Xmas into early Jan and earnings Jan 14. I also think Q2 means Apr-June, not their Q2. I hope I am wrong on that. Would like this completed sooner than later.
Congrats longs on the acquisition- AYRWF is a solid place to land
Yeah - they are interesting for sure.
Yep- I have created room over the past two months as I read its financials and share structure. And with the unheard of position - if this gets any volume - look out. On a big day its trading 250k shares.
So quiet here. We need volume for this gem.
I admit I don’t have much experience in arbitrage between two stocks in deals like this. But let’s say APHa crushes earnings in Jan. Are you saying it won’t drive up APHA and TLRY in proportion to the .83 deal? It would just not factor into valuations at all? Hard to see how that happens esp since the future value of the company is mostly ApHA assets and some TLRY assets with the TLRY name on top. I’ll have to dig further to understand.
Funman - APHA will rally into earnings Jan 14 as will Tilray a few weeks later. I think we will be looking at low double digit prices for both at that time. APHA growth will pull Tilray stock up as well.
Will US MSO M&A activity get moving more quickly with APHA TLRY combining? (Yes I know CA, but this and sweetwater purchase clearly pointed at US and Simon explicit about that in today’s release). Let’s get moving TRUL GTBIF etc.
Now let’s have someone give us an offer ($30/share US) VFF can’t refuse :)
Link for call this AM?
Hold thru volatility here. I think this could get punished somewhat in near term for the perceived purchasing premium and the over priced executive crap show that TLRY is. (I hope I am wrong and hope it is all upside roses, but don't be fooled by pre-market.) But there are real valuable assets within TLRY and with Simon in control - whatever short term pressure may occur, will be dwarfed by the upside potential and excitement into mid-Jan earnings call.
Cheers MX10001 on the calls. They have been great and Jan and Apr are going to be exciting.
I'm not sure Funman and Rivers - making it a US HQ company with the InBev partnership may be the biggest step here and may overwhelm the negatives - I trust Simon.
I read the full article just now Fast and I think it could work well. Simon wants to be based in US, gets an InBevPartnership instantly making Sweetwater much more valuable, gets a leading European position adding Portugal, gets whatever Tilray is selling in natural foods, hemp and weed (I honestly don't know how valuable this is) but overall combined revenue is now larger than CURA and CGC. So I like the bold move before US eases. And now the Tlray holders at $100, $200, $300 can drive it back up there for us :)
Happy- what is the story here - great moves recently.
That is a good newsletter and he is spot on re MSOS. This will be amazing as it scales to 1B in assets - which will all flow to the underlying companies. I like that feedback loop.
We will see. I think the risk reward is stacked well for the next 7 months.
Fast -I am also loaded on Jan calls. I expect sideways around here 7.50 to 9 range through Dec and a new years rally towards 10-12 with earnings in mid-January. With good news in US, EU, and since it is the only one with earnings in early Jan, I could see a scenario where traders and fomo runs far beyond this too.
Yeah - it de-risks a bit, but covers some really huge upside small companies as well. I loaded up on the March and June 33 to 35 options the day they came out last week. And took a position on the 40s yesterday. The re-rating of the whole sector when SAFE passes will make this look silly low.
I am in big on this first (actual) chance to play options on US MSOs. They just offered $40 to $45 June calls yesterday.
Yes - all over the MSOS March $33 calls and June $35 calls - this will be a steal.
Happy Thanksgiving all - and how is she trading north of the border today?
Fan F-ing Tastic :) Thanks Erpy - congrats. I've made a lot of money on VFF partially thanks to you. I will be toasting you tomorrow.
Happy Thanksgiving to all
I like the PR and supply agreement with Shoppers. I sent a note to investor relations about 6 weeks ago asking for a little more PR and updates. they never wrote back - but maybe this was their plan all along - get PR cranked up when they were 100% owners of PSF? Mike ... Don't hide this candle under a bushel... let it shine, let it shine, let it shine...
Trump confirmed to start transition - let’s go Sweetwater :)
Wow. And now the transition is confirmed and the whole sector jumping. Tomorrow could be fun.
Go VFF, congrats Erpy and longs - thank god for calls on months like this :)