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Telex/rory/telex the next rs will be sooner than you like to admit. Definitely not 180 days. Today is day 15 close below $1, no point in waiting on the delist notice. This wont be the last rs, verb is a dilution machine. Rorys peddling a faulty widget that no one wants or is willing to pay for. The acquired company will cease to exist and the revenue will be gone as well. Dilution is the only answer rory loves convertible notes easy free money yeah it screws the shareholders but rory calls em bedwetters anyway.
Right now the chart roll gap up and the intraday base building below the gap above has got to be weighing on the minds of the shorts throw in the bigger than estimated draw on Thursday holding a short over the weekend is risky. The widow maker has a way of inflicting max pain. Last Sunday she swacked the longs and now shorts are over due some pain. Wont take much of a colder forecast to unleash a buying spee
In case you missed it Day 14 to close below $1
Day 14 Close Below $1. The bounce effort to get VERB back above $1 failed
VERB has lots of new dilution shares coming down the pipe. Rorys big decision is whether to do the next RS before year end at the height of tax loss selling season or wait until next year and a delisting notice
Jan NG high this morn $2.713 tagged the 50ma has pulled back now $2.687. IMO will trade sideways then close back near high preparing for a move above the Jan 50ma and into the gap above on the Natgas chart(second chart down).
NG resistance above can be seen in the big gap above. Last Friday we saw a similar set up on Friday as NG rallied into the gap above but unwound come Sunday night Monday morn. We had the pull back to $2.5 with the op to reload now its time for a second attempt. All we need is a colder weather forecast update between now and Sunday night.
Would that be a bullish or bearish AB Pattern. Please explain to us newbies in detail. Otherwise it sounds like more bs
Last month the contango gap up sparked a short covering rally.
What does that mean
Spark Something must be wrong with that report UGAZ keeps dropping whats going on? Please explain to us newbies why ng is dropping
spark UGAZ just dropped .30 what happened you said
spark is that a buy recommendation UGAZ is $13.55?
Of course the report will reflect the recent cold spell. What else could it reflect last yrs cold spell or perhaps next months cold spell. Sounds like a bunch of worthless bs to me.
Breaking higher $16.5
UGAZ $16.2 ish pressure building for move into the gap above
Natural Gas Futures Finish Higher as Traders Mull Differing Weather Models
Jeremiah Shelor November 14, 2019
As the market digested divergent weather outlooks and a slight bearish miss from the latest government storage data, natural gas futures finished higher on Thursday but gave back some of the gains recorded late in the previous session. The December Nymex contract settled at $2.647/MMBtu, up 4.7 cents day/day but well off the $2.696 intraday high. January settled at $2.719, up 2.7 cents.
In the spot market, easing cold and weaker-than-expected demand prompted a second straight day of steep discounts for East Coast hubs, helping to drop NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. 6.5 cents to $2.500.
The December contract settled near the 50% retracement level between its Oct. 11 low and last week’s high just above $2.900, noted Powerhouse Vice President David Thompson.
“We didn’t hold the high of the day, and it was sort of a lackluster performance after the inventory number,” he told NGI.
Last week saw the market form an “island top reversal” after prices gapped up before gapping back lower this past weekend. During the move higher, the relative strength index suggested the market had become overbought, increasing the likelihood that prices would form the island top, Thompson said.
“That sort of last gasp higher is one of those classic indications of overexuberance,” he said. “...I’d still probably lean a little bit more to the bearish side, just because we’ve not quite yet reached oversold levels” and the longer-term outlook doesn’t show the kind of “painful purple color” in the forecast maps that the market saw this week.
The major weather models Thursday couldn’t manage to work out their differences on the pattern to close out November, with the Global Forecast System (GFS) taking a much colder view than its European counterpart. The midday GFS run Thursday maintained a “rather chilly stance for the Midwest and Northeast” during the period starting next Friday and continuing through Nov. 28, according to NatGasWeather. Subsequent data from the European model Thursday did move in the cooler direction.
“However, it again wasn’t nearly as cold as the GFS Nov. 22-28,” the forecaster said. “The European model still shows several bouts of cooling into the U.S. next week and through Nov. 28, but they just aren’t very cold and are rather seasonal,” a pattern that would produce near-normal daily national heating degree day totals.
“This is much different than the colder GFS that sees a rather strong push of subfreezing air into the U.S.” and “much greater than normal” heating demand during the same time frame, according to NatGasWeather.
Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a net 3 Bcf injection into U.S. natural gas stocks Thursday, extending the refill season another week.
The 3 Bcf build, recorded for the week ended Nov. 8, came in on the higher side of consensus, as expectations had ranged from a single-digit withdrawal to a single-digit injection. However, 3 Bcf is bullish against the historical comparisons, as last year EIA recorded a 42 Bcf injection for the period, and the five-year average is a 30 Bcf build.
Prior to Thursday’s report, estimates had clustered around a range between minus 9 Bcf and plus 9 Bcf, with major surveys suggesting stocks might finish near-even week/week. NGI’s model predicted a 4 Bcf injection.
Total Lower 48 working gas in underground storage stood at 3,732 Bcf as of Nov. 8, 491 Bcf (15.1%) higher than year-ago levels and nearly flat with the five-year average of 3,730 Bcf.
By region, the Midwest (minus 3 Bcf) and Pacific (minus 2 Bcf) each posted net withdrawals for the week, while there was no net change to stocks in the East and Mountain regions, according to EIA. The South Central posted an 8 Bcf net injection for the week, including a 10 Bcf build for salt stocks, partially offset by a 2 Bcf withdrawal from nonsalt.
FADING EAST COAST PREMIUMS
Spot prices continued to sell off along the East Coast Thursday as forecasts pointed to a break in this week’s frigid temperatures heading into the weekend. Maxar’s Weather Desk called for lows in Boston and New York City to warm from the mid-20s on Thursday to the mid- to upper-30s for Friday.
Algonquin Citygate dropped $1.005 to $2.920 Thursday, while Transco Zone 6 NY shed 42.5 cents to $2.845. In Appalachia, Texas Eastern M-3, Delivery tumbled 41.0 cents to $2.660.
Demand in the Northeast and New England during this week’s cold blast “underperformed expectations,” helping to mitigate price impacts from pipeline disruptions in the region, including forces majeure on the Texas Eastern Transmission (aka Tetco) and Iroquois Gas Transmission systems, Genscape Inc. analyst Josh Garcia said Thursday.
“New England pipe sample demand reached 3.77 Bcf/d” Wednesday, “and Northeast demand reached 20.19 Bcf/d, far below peak demand for those regions,” Garcia said.
Looking at the broader pattern over the next few days, the National Weather Service (NWS) called for a “weaker, relatively dry cold front” to move out of the Plains and into the Ohio Valley late Thursday and into Friday. The Pacific origins of this system were expected to result in less intense cold compared to earlier in the week but still enough to “keep temperatures below average through Saturday across the eastern half of the United States.”
Also potentially limiting buyer interest, forecasts pointed to milder temperatures to open next week.
“The pattern for early and mid-next week will bring a return to more seasonal conditions as a weather system tracks across the northern U.S. and a second one tracks across the Southeast, just not very cold ones,” NatGasWeather said.
After selling off the past few sessions, Midwest prices saw modest increases Thursday. Michigan Consolidated picked up 7.5 cents to average $2.530. In the Midcontinent, Northern Natural Demarc inched 1.5 cents higher to $2.485.
Down in Texas and on the Gulf Coast, a number of locations picked up around a nickel or more, including benchmark Henry Hub, which added 4.5 cents to $2.665. In East Texas, Houston Ship Channel gained 9.5 cents to $2.605. Over in West Texas, Transwestern eased 2.0 cents to $1.860.
A force majeure event on the Transwestern Pipeline system Wednesday was not impacting flows out of the Permian Basin as of Thursday’s gas day, according to Genscape analyst Matthew McDowell.
Transwestern reduced capacity for westbound volumes on its system by around 100 MMcf/d because of mechanical issues at a compressor station in Corona, NM. The capacity restriction, expected to only last one day, may have impacted Permian volumes on Transwestern’s West Texas and Panhandle laterals, McDowell said.
UGAZ dropped all the way to $15.3 again now $15.9s Gotta luv these pullbacks YUM YUM! Great intraday trade on this Thursday natgas report day
Friday monday gap down $18.59-$16.2 UGAZ high so far today $16.22 two mins ago
$15.75 This was critical info that got deleted as off topic.
UGAZ $15.45 DGAZ $112 Which is the better trade? Spark what do you recommend?
Read the post just before this one paying attention to the bold, the underlined and first paragraph. The answer you seek is hidden in that paragraph. Then go to Google and search what time does natgas settle click the come group link scroll down to energy read the time. Compare that time to when ugaz closed (market close)then look at finviz natgas chart and see the price of ng movement when and after ng settled. Compare those prices with current pre market prices and you will see ng is higher than yesterday's settlement time but lower than ugaz close time. If you still don't understand consider paper trading ng/ugaz till you do
Signs of Hope for Natural Gas Bulls as Afternoon Weather Data Inspires Late Gains
Jeremiah Shelor November 13, 2019
Natural gas futures eased lower in Wednesday’s trading before a fresh round of colder-trending weather data coincided with a rally after the settle; the December Nymex contract settled at $2.600/MMBtu, down 2.1 cents, but the front month was trading back above $2.670 at around 4 p.m. ET. January settled lower at $2.692 but was trading around $2.755 as of around 4 p.m. ET.
In the spot market, discounts dominated -- especially along the East Coast -- amid indications that weather-driven demand associated with this week’s cold blast would trend lower by the end of the work week; NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. fell 46.5 cents to $2.565.
“What had been a rather uneventful session in the natural gas market suddenly got very interesting” Wednesday afternoon, Bespoke Weather Services said. “...We had been mentioning the $2.55-2.60 zone as a target if we keep weather around normal after this week, which we did, but that price zone is a strong level of technical support.”
Once the data from the afternoon European model trended colder, “it appeared to provide the spark needed to send prices much higher” after the December contract settled at $2.600. “Getting a piece of bullish data right at solid support is notable, but this also marked the third day in a row of colder trends, and the market seems to be saying that’s enough to warrant a move back higher.”
Meanwhile, Thursday’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report, covering the week ended Nov. 8, could show the season’s first withdrawal or an injection in the single digits, according to estimates. Survey responses as of Wednesday showed expectations clustering around a range between minus 9 Bcf and plus 9 Bcf.
A Bloomberg survey showed a median prediction for a 2 Bcf withdrawal, while a Wall Street Journal survey pointed to a 1 Bcf withdrawal. According to a Reuters survey, EIA will report no net change to stocks. Intercontinental Exchange EIA Financial Weekly Index futures settled Tuesday at a withdrawal of 3 Bcf. NGI’s model predicted a 4 Bcf injection.
Looking at the supply picture, Genscape Inc.’s production estimate Wednesday showed freeze-offs in the Lower 48 taking about 1.3 Bcf/d of output offline.
That’s compared to about 1.7 Bcf/d of impacts in Tuesday’s estimate, “so it appears the worst is over as weather migrates eastward out of producing areas,” Genscape senior natural gas analyst Rick Margolin said. “Since freeze-offs started hitting in late October, there has been a cumulative 7.9 Bcf of production impacted.
“...Due to the early start (the earliest we had previously seen freeze-offs was Nov. 11 in 2014) and the progressively greater impact freeze-offs have from the growth of liquids-rich plays, this is by far the highest accumulation of production impacted” at this point in the season compared to previous winters.
Production estimates have pointed to strong output growth in 2019, with analysts routinely pointing to loose balances as supply has overshadowed demand. However, guidance issued during 3Q2019 earnings results from major Northeast exploration and production (E&P) companies points clearly to a slower growth rate for 2020.
According to data compiled by NGI from the financial results of nine key publicly traded Appalachian E&Ps, the operators on average plan to cut capital expenditures (capex) by 19% in 2020, while they expect to grow production by just 3.6%.
“Publicly traded Appalachia producers are guiding to about a 20% reduction in their aggregate capital spend in 2020, not quite to maintenance capex levels, but pretty close,” said NGI’s Patrick Rau, director of strategy and research. “As such, we estimate their total production growth in Appalachia will be 3-4% in 2020, a far cry from the double digit percentage increases that have become the norm in the area.
“Eventually, those staggering growth rates were going to have to come down anyway, if for no other reason than because of the law of large numbers,” he said. “However, I do think low- to mid-single digit production growth will be the new normal in the area.”
E&Ps are under pressure from investors to generate dividend growth, Rau noted.
“In order to do that, they must grow their free cash flow, and since producers are price takers, the only real leverage they have to grow cash flow is via production growth,” he said.
The slowdown in the Northeast aligns with the broader U.S. production forecast from EIA. As part of its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, issued Wednesday, EIA said it expects dry natural gas production to remain strong through the end of 2019, reaching an average 92.1 Bcf/d for the year, a 10% increase from the 2018 average. However, production will grow much less in 2020 due to the lag between changes in price and changes in future drilling activity. Domestic production is expected to average 94.9 Bcf/d in 2020.
MODERATING EAST COAST
Spot prices sold off from coast to coast Wednesday amid indications that demand from an ongoing wave of Arctic temperatures had already peaked. Discounts were particularly steep along the East Coast as numerous hubs erased a large chunk of the hefty premiums added earlier in the week.
In the Northeast, Algonquin Citygate fell $2.450 to average $3.925.
The National Weather Service called for this week’s “record-breaking Arctic outbreak” to remain over the East Coast into Wednesday night.
A second cold front was “pressing southward across the Central and Southern Plains” Wednesday and was expected to “shift eastward to the Ohio Valley Thursday” before “weakening through the East Coast by Friday,” the forecaster said. “This will keep temperatures below average for the remainder of the work week. However, the air mass’s origin is from the Pacific, so it’s not as brutally cold as the preceding one.”
Genscape’s estimate for Lower 48 demand Wednesday came in at 101 Bcf/d, with a similar demand total projected for Thursday.
“Weather forecasts have moderated only slightly, but that has generated slightly lower expectations for Friday, now forecast to be 96 Bcf/d,” Genscape’s Margolin said in a note to clients.
After a downward revision, Tuesday’s estimated demand total clocked in at 106.9 Bcf/d, just shy of the November record of 107.6 Bcf/d set on Nov. 27, 2018, according to the firm.
Transco Zone 6 NY tumbled $2.330 to $3.270, while further upstream in Appalachia, Texas Eastern M-3, Delivery dropped $2.280 to $3.070.
Texas Eastern Transmission (aka Tetco) declared a force majeure Wednesday due to an unplanned outage at its compressor station in Entriken, PA, in the M-3 zone.
Genscape analyst Josh Garcia said the event was impacting about 259 MMcf/d of flows day/day, dropping capacity through the station from 2.48 Bcf/d to 2.13 Bcf/d.
Elsewhere in the congested Northeast, a force majeure declared Tuesday due to an unplanned outage on the Iroquois Gas Transmission system was restricting southbound flows through the pipeline’s Dover, NY, compressor station, Garcia said.
“This is an unreported compressor, but a pipe balance north of Dover shows that implied flows spiked by 449 MMcf/d between Monday and Tuesday (Nov. 11 and 12),” Garcia said.
In Tuesday’s trading, Iroquois Zone 1 and Iroquois, Waddington, reflecting transactions farther north on the pipeline, both posted discounts. Conversely, Iroquois Zone 2, reflecting transactions between the Wright Compressor Station in upstate New York and the New York City metro area, saw higher prices Tuesday.
Discounts were also the norm throughout the rest of the Lower 48 Wednesday, paced by a 10.5-cent drop at Henry Hub, which averaged $2.620.
In the Midwest, Joliet shed 16.0 cents to $2.445, while in the Midcontinent, Northern Border Ventura tumbled 16.0 cents to $2.455. Farther west in the Rockies, Cheyenne Hub eased 11.0 cents to $2.070.
NG $2.6 below the 50ma my stop limit triggered on the way.
NG dec $2.624 sitting right on the 50ma Jan $2.715 sitting just around yesterdays low. UGAZ low $15.4s Make or break time. I guess were waiting on some midday weather update. I wonder if weather guy gets paid to influence the ng trade. Just had a dip below the 50ma $2.61/UGAZ $15.31 getting close to my stop limit. Just give us a gap closer bounce, not asking for much, a couple $s would be good seeing how Black Friday sales are coming up.
The House of Cards Chart needed fixing so take it back down below the gap and base it. Consider for a moment whats the best way to get NG to drop near term? Revise the wx forecast warmer which is what we saw over the weekend gapping it down. What would be the best way to get NG to move higher without a gap up. Revise the weather forecast colder at noon. NG/UGAZ gapped again this morning and just a few mins ago they walked it down and closed the gap up from this morn, now UGAZ is moving up again. Technical or wx related all that matters is that Its Gonna Be A Long Cold Hard Winter and you better get in. But don't forget to use a stop limit.
Calling all eager beaver newbie NG traders.
Can you hear the call
I gotta get in I Gotta get in I Gotta Get in I Gotta Get In I GOTTA Get In I GOTTA GET In I GOTTA GET IN I GOTTA GET IN!
Gap closed, sort of with this morning gap down then drop NG tested 50ma $2.62 (dec)
I bought some UGAZ $15.3s mon when NG touched the 50ma $2.62. Could see a trading range bounce into the gap above. NG base waiting on cold wx update forecast. A cold polar vortex could resume NG rally. Stop limit for substantial drop below the 50ma
UGAZ/DGAZ 60/40 Jan/Dec
I bought some UGAZ $15.3s Monday when NG dropped down to $2.62 touching the dec 50ma. If it holds above the 50ma, bases it could get a trading range bounce. A revised colder forecast could break it out. If it drops below the 50ma with any authority my stop limit will trigger.
Things ng has going for it.
Its relatively cheap for this time of year
A large short position
Lots of eager beaver newbie NG traders wanting to relive 2018
Nice play I thought about buying dgaz last week but I was in ira 3 day settlement period. I got burnt buying with unsettled cash, never again. It makes flipping both sides difficult. I only trade in Roth IRAs. Never pay a dime in capital gains tax.
Dec $2.69 Jan $2.78 both down about 3.5% If the price of NG is the same in the morning then UGAZ will be down about 10.5% $1.95ish. UGAZ closed Friday $18.59 will be about $16.6s in the am if NG remains at current level. Overall the gap needed to be closed. Too many experienced traders were just waiting for the pull back. It would be good for NG to base a bit before moving back up. Then there is always the possibility for the Widow Maker to just start swacking as many longs at it can. Teach all the eager beaver newbies what trading NG is all about.
NG Short position 226160.0 down 72718 from 298878.0
https://ycharts.com/indicators/nymex_natural_gas_futures_managed_money_short_positions
Report 34/45 chart `
pull of the gap
Dec test 200ma
ugaz/dgaz starting roll to Jan 80/20
https://www.velocityshares.com/etns/product/ugaz/
how low is it going to go NG/UGAZ?
just what do you see?
Kei whys the price going down given the report came in below the estimate?