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SPY 282...
casino don't need no stinkin rug pull.
nor respect for gravity, P/E ratios, ww3 brewing, etc...
to infinity and beyond!
because they can...
what could possibly go wrong? 🤦♂️
but, yeah, i do expect a rug pull soon.
UVXY 5min ramping upward since 14:00 ET.
SPY 5min macd crossing neg now
with 5min awe flashing red.
but they could still run it to 283+
because they can...
never can tell with bees...
re: rug pull,
or not...
SPY still churning higher.
UVXY back to sideways sleep again.
because they can...
re: when rug pull,
maybe now?
UVXY finally waking up
from its hour-long nap...
for those still holding calls,
UVXY starting to get uppity now
after an hour of sideways idle.
looks like i could have gotten 1.60
on the 480c if i'd held a bit longer.
but already distracted by elder care
so glad i didn't take the risk.
fwiw, closed SPY 480c @ 1.35 from 0.25.
looks like it will continue higher
but UVXY steady sideways the last hour
and i'll be distracted often the rest of the day.
so locking in the win to book the profit
to avoid risk of an EOD profit-taking plunge
and call flush.
full sails higher for all still holding calls!
re: SMCI,
wow. i completely failed to track SMCI today
despite discussing it in pre with trading buddy
re: gil morales' heads-up on it last night.
SMCI ran to 417 today, up from 311 prior close.
SMCI 395c ran from 0.15 to 21.40 (LOD - HOD).
that's 140x intraday!!!
can't believe i didn't track it. 🤦♂️
Some insight for the bozos who think every trade has to be a one-way affair. I take my profits on the $SMCI after-hours after my 328.54 long entry which gives me a big profit cushion to deal with the stock tomorrow as a potential BGU or SGU, depending on how it plays out. pic.twitter.com/EjPMuegqdw
— Gil Morales - TheOWLTrader.com & VoSI (@gilmoreport) January 19, 2024
re: Some good shorts out there away from NVDA total market support
there are always some struggling tickers in the mix.
but the heavyweights are all higher today.
and, in reality, the only thing that matters
is what the casino titans want to have happen.
thus, the frequent disconnect from market moves and world events.
and today, casino punched a new ATH for SPY (just now)
so their agenda seem upward into next week
because they can.
pay no attention to ww3 simmering
behind the rosy-lace curtain...
boom, SPY 480.07
new ATH. (all-time-high)
blue sky breakout potential now.
let's see what the casino does with it.
currently SPY 5min bullflag
at 480 HOD R.
still very low vol.
but seems likely they will punch higher soon.
if so, blue sky breakout could do anything.
still holding calls, up 145%.
will sell a third to cover cost basis
if it doesn't break higher soon.
SPY new HOD,
UVXY tanking, new LOD.
still no major volume.
which suggests bots might be driving the rally.
meaning, if true, punching a new ATH today
(only 0.30 higher from here...)
is just a matter of the casino scripting it.
time will tell.
fwiw, got SPY 480c @ 0.25
on UVXY tag of new LOD
with UVXY 5min bearish 6/20, awe, macd,
while SPY 5min 6/20 gapped bullish
with slightly bullish SPY 5min awe & adx.
def not a confirmed buy signal.
just a hunch, combined with low vol bot walkup earlier,
that the casino wants to tag a new ATH
to close out the week,
regardless of 460 monthly op-ex max pain...
and yeah,
would also be nice to see the promised conf call update eventually
for an update on project status and more tangible info on the tweets...
as before, i def agree on the potential here,
esp if mark's recent tweets about project progress are accurate.
it's the only reason i'm still holding.
re: we both believe strongly that this was a buy the news selloff event.
as before,
if mark doesn't dilute post-RS, you may be correct.
if mark does dilute post-RS, you might be painfully incorrect.
the key concern for me with your posts,
as noted several times before,
is that you don't see the risk of dilution as a major concern
and rationalize it away as a natural process for growth,
despite...
1. reverse splits being a common and prevalent shareholder blowout in pinks.
2. empirical history of MIKP 100:1 RS, with rapid dilution post-RS.
3. mark planning to raise the AS/OS ratio 5x with the restructure.
4. mark refusing to answer questions about his motivation for the 5x dilution ceiling bump.
5. $50k convertible (toxic) debt due feb 8th, only 3 weeks from now.
as ever, i do feel there is still strong potential here
if mark can (finally) get his production ducks in a row
after 15 years of chronic failure to launch.
i just think you're playing with fire
with your relentless confidence about history not repeating
with current shareholders getting blown out again by dilution
as happened a decade ago.
i know you've heard this all before.
just reposting it periodically
in case there are new lurkers here.
yeah, and very low volume since the opening drop
aside from the single 8m-vol 1min candle @ ~11:21.
i'm going to focus elsewhere for a bit
and check back in after lunch hour
for possible more confident EOD setup.
looks like your timing was excellent again today!
i'm still wary given low volume
but you def called the top thus far!
well done!
mod, nice call on the calls! 🏆️
fwiw, i'm wary of a rug pull before 480 R test.
SPY 1min def looks like it's rolling over now.
but this has been a steady rally higher on very low vol
which suggests bot manip in play
meaning, anything's possible today,
including blue sky breakout to new ATHs above 480.
time will tell...
fwiw, closed puts for 30% loss.
should have taken the quick double
when SPY found S at 477 on the first drop of the scalp.
could have reentered if SPY did break lower.
now watching for call entry on this dip
for possible blue sky ATH breakout.
SPY 478 R broken on low vol.
5min 6/20 converging upwards.
still unconvincing low volume
but i'm going to close puts on next SPY dip.
looks like up might be the "call" for now.
key question is whether they are painting a low vol headfake
to sell calls before a retrace lower?
or just taking their sweet time
before punching up thru 480 for new ATHs?
SPY 5min macd rising,
5min adx converging
but 5min awe still bearish for now.
super low volume last 15 min...
snakes coiled, waiting to strike?
edit: SPY retesting 478 R again now (10:30 ET)
still very low volume...
edit: SPY 478 R retest failed, (10:31 ET)
but still no selling volume conviction...
caveat, SPY 1min now rallying linear on very low volume
which could mean bots want to break 480 today.
still holding puts for now,
waiting to see if there's any high vol selling
into this low vol rally.
not seeing it yet.
so maybe up is the "call" of the day.
we should know soon.
edit: possible temp R @ 478 now (10:20 ET)
bracketing with temp S @ 477.
watching for break above or below this S/R range.
fwiw, SPY first bounce attempt off 477 S failed.
let's see if the bots try harder next time.
or the bears punch down thru 477.
SPY 5min ema9 temp R last few candles.
watching for upward break of ema9 on volume to close puts
or lower break of 477s on volume to add puts.
fwiw, SPY 476p @ 0.34
looks like SPY rally attempt stalled.
with UVXY ticking up.
if SPY doesn't break higher soon,
could mean down for a bit.
initial entry on short leash,
pending better confimation.
edit: retest of 477s now (10:10 ET)
waiting to see if this opening selloff is just a headfake
before a bot rally to new all-time-highs,
or the foothills of a larger plunge,
maybe diving at far as possible
towards 460 max pain on op-ex day?
just watching for now
waiting for a more confident chart setup.
re: Gap and run or gap and ruin
agreed.
and we probably won't know which
until 10am, maybe 10:30.
with friday/monthlu op-ex today,
seems a prime setup for a strong headfake
in the first 30 minutes
to bait a slew of options
before pulling the rug.
fwiw, with monthly op-ex in play,
max pain is 460.00.
while, in contrast, ES futs rallied higher last night,
SPY currently at 479.5 in pre this morning,
just 0.50 shy of prior all time SPY highs,
so 460 would be a -20 intraday drop.
seems unlikely they can pull the rug that far,
nor that they would want to
after logically adding inventory yesterday
during the bot churn upward yesterday?
but if they closed their calls yesterday
sell a slew of calls this morning on an early headfake,
while shifting heavily short/put-centric, themselves,
then maybe we see an epic nosedive today
before they walk it up again next week?
anything's possible.
just need to trade the chart we see as it comes.
re: CLOWNS AND MAGGOTS
just out of curiosity,
are you capable of posting market insights
without SHOUTING for attention
and hurling insults to stroke your ego?
to be clear,
i agree with most of the sentiments you post.
but your bedside manner is grating, at best,
and prolly has induced many here
to toss you in the "ignore" pile
with others who feel the need
to post constantly in ALL CAPS
and insult with compulsive abandon.
and what's the point of that?
if you want to be respected for your market insights,
seems likely you'd reach a wider audience
that would be more appreciative of your input
if you posted with calm civilized demeanor?
re: Gonna get real really really quick.
per prior convos, i share your concern
that ww3 could break out any given usa market night
(daytime in the middle-east)
as such, i remain wary of holding any calls overnight.
but, until there's actually a shooting war btwn iran and usa
and putin throws down with iran, playing the nuke card,
it seems clear that market titans will do whatever they want.
to point, supply chain concerns have been in the news for at least a week.
seems unlikely any influential traders missed the news 7 days ago
that TSLA had to suspend production in europe due to houthi impacts on shipping.
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-berlin-suspend-most-production-two-weeks-over-red-sea-supply-gap-2024-01-11/
and yet, yesterday's rally clearly shows the market titans
don't give a rat's ass about impending reality
when there's money to be made any given today?
re: Op ex at its best.
max pain was 472 yesterday.
so op-ex play would have been close around 472
depending on the options opened yesterday.
imo, yesterday's afternoon rally was concerted fund manip
that outweighed the profits deep pockets would have gained
from flushing open options at max pain.
maybe the funds loaded calls on the drop this week
and with their equity inventories down to 53%, per naaim data,
https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/
they used bots to buy en masse to run it up
to profit from the calls
as well as being able to distribute that shares
they bought on the way up
at higher prices today
and maybe into next week?
far too many possible scenarios to speculate with confidence.
the only thing that seems clear to me
is that yesterday's afternoon rally
was not a organic market behavior.
imo, because they can.
there's that bot rally i was wary about.
ended up getting distracted by domestic issues
and stopping out of puts.
good reminder to set stops
before stepping away from the console...
SPY seems to have found decent S @ 473.
SPY 5min indicators are neutral now.
UVXY 5min still bullish for now
(meaning bearish for SPY)
but after all the rapid buying after S tests,
i'm wary of a bot rally this afternoon
because they can.
if SPY doesn't punch below 473 soon after 1pm ET,
i'll likely close puts while they are decently green
and not risk the potential bot rally.
edit: within minutes of posting the msg above,
SPY finally punched below 473 S.
might free fall a bit now.
let's see where bulls catch it.
sad to hear about your dad passing. 😢
my parents have been struggling lately, too.
i hope you have solid family/friend support on your side?
fwiw, UVXY new HOD now.
still low vol rally,
but strong spike upward,
in step with steep SPY selloff.
time will tell how it plays out.
edit: SPY now back down to retest 473.4 S
which maps to the SPY dsma20 and dsma10 today.
a break under 473.4 to new LOD
could continue downward.
a sustained bounce here could mean bots/bulls will control the day,
in which case, i'll exit puts, which are suddenly green again (for now...)
re: late shorts as well,
476.7 R is a large step up
from the 475 R map at the open.
do they usually shift that must over a couple hours?
makes sense that they would change once trading started.
re: we prefer to stay short time in the trade,
i prefer short scalps, too.
could have taken quick 30% gain on the 472p
soon after entry,
but chart suggest at the time,
that more drop would follow,
which it didn't, but might still,
esp given the double-top fail that just happened.
time will tell.
yeah, UVXY's mostly sideways all day.
SPY just tagged new HOD
but the volume of the rally was low.
which could mean bots want SPY higher today.
but i suspect bots would favor the 472 max pain
to flush call options.
time will tell.
if SPY doesn't sell off soon,
i'll close puts to cut losses
before theta erodes pricing later in the day.
yeah, i got puts based on the SPY/UVXY 5min charts
showing weakness after the gap up,
combined with the notion of SPY opening
at the high end of your mapping range
which has often been empirical R intraday.
SPY rallied upwards after 10am.
i added 472p @ 0.13 to lower cost basis to 0.23
when the rally stalled and started to roll over.
time will tell how it plays out...
SPY 473.4 S holding for now.
SPY 5min still slightly bearish
with UVXY 5min slightly bullish,
suggesting 473.4 S might fail eventually,
but no clear signal.
never can tell with bees.
still holding 472p for now...
meaning, you'll consider calls if SPY dips to 472 range?
selling half to cover cost basis is a smart strategy.
imo, never regret making a smart decision to preserve capital.
congrats on the trade!
i've been watching NVDA, too.
but the options premiums have seemed too high for the risk,
even on friday exp days.
but a big gap up like today's
no doubt paid off well!
what was your strike and entry price?
GG, did you hold your NVDA calls overnight?
if so, nice gap up today!
fwiw, got some SPY 472p @ 0.32
based on the map theory
that current level is shorting R,
and because DXY trying to rally this morning, too,
with max pain of 472 also lower.
time will tell...