SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[imiloa]

re: Gap and run or gap and ruin

agreed.
and we probably won't know which
until 10am, maybe 10:30.

with friday/monthlu op-ex today,
seems a prime setup for a strong headfake
in the first 30 minutes
to bait a slew of options
before pulling the rug.

fwiw, with monthly op-ex in play,
max pain is 460.00.

while, in contrast, ES futs rallied higher last night,
SPY currently at 479.5 in pre this morning,
just 0.50 shy of prior all time SPY highs,
so 460 would be a -20 intraday drop.

seems unlikely they can pull the rug that far,
nor that they would want to
after logically adding inventory yesterday
during the bot churn upward yesterday?

but if they closed their calls yesterday
sell a slew of calls this morning on an early headfake,
while shifting heavily short/put-centric, themselves,
then maybe we see an epic nosedive today
before they walk it up again next week?

anything's possible.
just need to trade the chart we see as it comes.