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3 feet of snow in Vermont time for some pictures
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/10/29/photos-tweets-and-more-from-the-october-snow-that-hit-the-northeast.html
Wow 14 hours without power that storm bit the big one, Northeast is digging out from a Halloweeeeeeeen storm, strange one.
There are some good beat up stocks that appear to be breaking the shackles, like amzn, gmcr, crm, and nflx.
I still say its difficult to impossible to accurately predict the
future. People who do predict for a living can get pretty accurate
with weather patterns. I would think that market patterns are a
different story but if they could get equally accurate with market
patterns then I would invest with THEM saving me the loss and
troubles.
Thought for the day: If your consideration is only for whats best for you and you only, eventually the best needs of others will take control of your life.
It appears that yesterdays bank rally is over with
Investor sentiment is that they are mostly not ready to commit to the banks for an investment as of yet, the news from europe doesnt equally transfer to US banks and its not solid enough.
Well well nice rally, but mostly overnight. Realizing how hard it is to predict the future, non traders analyzing the market realize this I think.
Gupta was a former Mckinsey Leader, and we wonder about the recruiting and grooming process for executives.
Didnt we just get through saying how great a job Palmisano was doing and now its Rometty, Not understanding the shuffle at IBM, then again I dont know that I ever understood what the heck they are doing anyway.
Palmisano WAS sales and Rometty was Electrical Engineering
That might just be part of the ticket there. ( had to check Wikipedia for that ).
I expect some optimism in GMCR tomorrow but sticking with a bearish thesis for a few months time.
The Power Lunch crowd is excited about Eminems money, and they wonder why they are broke, LOL.
Folks whom I think are often wrong: Patty Edwards, Joe Terranova, they should do a synopsis on their calls.
Plus they have bad taste in sports teams, hehe
The GMCR story is playing out, analyst estimates as low as 1/3 that of the bullish case, could mean 1/3 of stock price which is 66% x 5 in option put gains or a 330% gain.
NFLX down 35% they had larger margins in DVD rentals, and then went with streaming and raised prices. Not to good
Dylan Ratigan touches on the right points, emotional or not
http://tradingthestreet.ca/post/11888969110/dylan-ratigan-blows-up-on-msnbc
Rick Perry doesnt have a prayer, flat tax people are killing us
Didnt anyone see the Great Gatsby, Get too rich and big headed start screwing around and living dangerously and the tax will be the neighbor guy shooting your ass. LOL joking.
No Deal, says the Merkel Sarkozy crowd, further discussion on Wednesday... Sounds puttable.
Well in a wishy washy market you gotta take a position, so I have all my put or short candidates in the HUD. haha Short and put away.
Cardinals up 2 to 1 in the series I actually had to search the web to find that out, whats with the coverage ?? geez.
Charlie Sheen no likee the new 2.5 men. http://content.usatoday.com/communities/entertainment/post/2011/10/charlie-sheen-extremely-disappointed-by-two-and-a-half-men/1
Ashton Kutcher blogs that perhaps high schools should teach code.
Well what code ? As soon as they are learning it its becoming outdated and the companies only need to hire a few people in these areas not a whole country of high school grads.
The real problem is that the markets are only picking a few winners and that limits opportunities for jobs, and they also openned up job searching to the whole world making the odds much lower for finding that good job. You can just see the money piling into the winners while many good organizations are being dropped like Kodak for instance.
So it will be more of the same alot of draw on resources and little creation in good ole usa. I predict the bill wont get paid, but find optimism in what has already been accomplished.
Its annoying how flea collars are purely decorative, dont work a lick on fleas. And neither does the single drop method.
Chicago arrests now, 100 arrested the movement reaches the heartland which means the movement is just beginning., Proabably will be a winter delay and back at it in May.
GMCR, recheck on some DD for it.
Supply:
Checked the local grocery store ( Stop & Shop ) and found the K-
Cup boxes along with the GMCR brand name, also saw the Bags for
brewing, so the single serve is a clever new idea. Around 9
dollars for 12 cups. or .75 cents a cup compared to 6 cents for
instant coffee which requires no machine and just a spoon.
Demand: From what we can see in this area this stuff is not
flying off the shelves, the shelves are neatly packed and without
any boxes removed. When asked a salesperson at BonTons reply was
"we are not selling many machines or coffee boxes" and they have
a full area on display.
The Machine:
Bon Ton had the KEURIG machines with around 4 or 5 models of them
that started at ( On Sale ) 99 bucks. Well Middle america wont be
too happy about that since I dont remember ever paying over 35
dollars for a coffee machine, and use instant anyways. I
actually like the flavor and convenience of Instant better.
Nescafe and Folgers all liked better than GMCR. Single serve is
nice to not have to deal with filters though. Heck with the bagged
coffee.
Price:
Correction to my calculation on instant its 120 cups at 7 dollars
or 6 cents a cup. And I like the flavor better. Your looking at
multiples higher per cup with single serve. I do like single
serve over buying bags of the stuff though, granted.
Quality:
Once again I rechecked by visiting and buying one of Mcdonalds
Newmans Own Green Mountain Coffee roasters coffees and sorry folks
it doesnt cut it to Dunkin Donuts. But have at it if you like it
its better than what Mcdonalds used to have. I personally think
MCDs had too much of an ego to carry Dunkin brands and wanted to
prove they could beat Dunkin at their own game.
I really am not saying these things just to support Einhorns
claims, if I really liked the coffee, and the Keurig I would
change my mind instantly but for the taste the price and all
things considered, I will maintain my sell and sell short rating
on GMCR. I know I know who am I to say that, Well John Q does
get them right quite a few times actually.
GMCR Reason #1 for a sell is insider sales, when the CEO begins to pick up sales activity it is suggested that investors follow suit,
Its acting like it may bounce today but just a cheaper short at this time.
Its is up almost 1000 times original value in 2007 so it can afford to come down in PE for those early adopters this should be no big deal. Momo stocks not supported currently.
Speaks for itself:
THey want growth and yet they are only selling franchises to people with alot of money.
GMCR wait for a pop before a put, hehe, AAPL gotta watch this only, WYNN also feel as though a pop will happen ie short squeeze.
Congrats to Nashbar for producing a really good basic Mountain Bike, more features than most mid grade bikes of ten years ago.
http://www.nashbar.com/bikes/Product_10053_10052_172828_-1_202650_10000_202341
Received it and test drove it, its pretty sweet even for us heavy guys.
You know your bored when you discuss the results of the Republican Debates.
Winner: No one really, they all did well enough to get their ideas across
Comments:
Romney: Needed to show he cared about the race and accomplished that if not anything else, ready for complexity but will he be able to save the US from debt and joblessness ? Definately watching the polls too much
Santorum: Like the Pennsylvania background, we need a president from there, sort of middle america sort of industrial and resource oriented and sort of east coast. ( Philly ). He was dead on with his criticisms but doesnt have the huge qualities of a front man. Referencing taking care of his children was good.
Cain: Very hard hitting direct and simplified which is penetrating peoples brains which is a good thing. Referring to the website to understand his plan was not powerful enough. 9-9-9 is catchy but most cant relate. Godfather pizza makes us feel like if he was president we would wake up in the boot of a car which is not good.
Bachman: FOllws the polls too much and is not making trend with her topics, focussing on the Obama Health Plan does not sell the candidate themselves enough. Bachman has no better chance than Palin but thankfully she is running and may win for the fact that they need the first woman in office.
Ron Paul: Great at political strategy, very direct and to the point, a little agey, has a trustable face and demeanor, but the US public wont think he is powerful enough or whatever it is that he doesnt have ( prior run failures ). Since I believe trust is even more important than smarts he scores high on my list. Independence and liberty and a balanced budget all right on topics.
Rick Perry: Unfortunately he has sort of lost the halo effect of being Christian and caring about values kinda guy, What comes forward is his death penalty stances ( I mean come on is HE perfect ), Job creation in Texas is only a slight positive since everyone knows that place is bursting with oil where other states are NOT. ( or WAS bursting with oil ). He holds his own will in an argument but does come across as Romney Said as TESTY. An unfortunate bad quality of the businessman.
Newt Gingrich: Reminds me of the old wigs politicians of old which is a safe and good feeling, is smart enough to be president, but has taken right wing positions that scare people and is not understanding enough of the protesting which is a founding quality of this country. ( Reagan had that problem too ). People dont tend to give him the respect of a front man and feel as though he has past failures. ( weariness of image here ).
John Huntsman: Who maybe anonymnity will be his strong suit cause no one knows anything bad about someone they purely dont know.
Opinions on these matters varies by the number of drops in the ocean or population on earth. So this opinion is 1/6 Billion in statistical importance, hehe Just fun for a slow morning.
Update to the large screen TV issue... Just got HD, OMG wow got
goose bumps from how clear it is. Its worth the extra 10 bucks a
month for HD by far. Sweet. Direct TV has many many in HD too.
I would say the Charlie Sheen drama was worth it for him, earning 40 Million bucks in one year last year.
http://omg.yahoo.com/news/charlie-sheen-highest-paid-actor-on-tv-says-forbes/74486
No tears here for that effort, hehe.
Goldman Sachs way below expectations definately a stock on watch now for a put.
GMCR and CROX look good on the short side and TLT on the plus side.
That INDY car race crash was so huge it almost looked staged, and we wonder why we overthink automotive risks.
Silvia Whadwa states that solving the European problem is like drawing the dragons and serpents on the map, IE uncharted waters, anything goes.
But my favorite quote from Geoffrey Rushs character in Pirates of the Carribean is..."well you cannot go to a place unknown unless you are truly lost. If you were not lost then the place would not be unknown."
Awesome stuff when you think about it. and funny too.