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CPI Estimates Tomorrow
By: Rahul | December 11, 2023
• CPI Estimates Tomorrow
$MS: 3%
$JPM: 3%
$BAC: 3.1%
$C: 3.1%
$NMR: 3.1%
HSBC: 3.1%
STIFEL NICOLAUS: 3.1%
BNP PARIBAS: 3.1%
BARCLAYS: 3.1%
TD SECURITIES: 3.1%
SCOTIABANK: 3.1%
$WFC: 3%
Consensus: 3.1%
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Microsoft's $MSFT 15-year seasonality gets increasingly bullish into the holidays... If we get a Santa rally this year, watch this one to be a leader!
By: TrendSpider | December 11, 2023
• $MSFT Microsoft's 15-year seasonality gets increasingly bullish into the holidays...
If we get a Santa rally this year, watch this one to be a leader!
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Lucid Motors and Zoom are being removed from the Nasdaq 100 at the end of this week. They will be replaced by DoorDash and MongoDB
By: TrendSpider | December 11, 2023
• JUST IN: Lucid Motors and Zoom are being removed from the Nasdaq 100 at the end of this week.
They will be replaced by DoorDash and MongoDB.
$LCID -4.45%
$ZM -2.75%
$MDB +1.36%
$DASH +1.55%
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Crude Oil Markets Still Building a Base
By: Christopher Lewis | December 11, 2023
• Crude oil markets are doing everything they can to build a bit of a base during the trading session on Monday, continuing the bit of stabilization.
WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market was somewhat noisy and choppy during the trading session on Monday, as we are trying to stabilize this market, or perhaps even recover a bit. The $74 level above will be an area of interest, as it was previous support, and therefore I think a bit of “market memory” comes into the picture. If we were to break above there, then you could see a move toward the $78 level. On the other hand, if we were to turn around and drop from here, the market could fall as far as the $67.50 level underneath, an area that has been massive support previously.
Either way, I think there is still a lot of concern out there when it comes to recessionary headwinds, and therefore demand for crude oil. The market has been slammed as of late, so a little bit of recovery probably makes some sense, but I still would be a bit hesitant to become bullish all of the sudden.
Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis
Brent also fell a bit during the trading session only to find buyers. The $78 level above is an area of interest as it was previous support, and it should now be resistance. One would assume that there are going to be short sellers out there taking their profit as they start to head toward the holiday season, and therefore volume could be a bit of an issue going forward. If we do break down from here, the $72 level underneath is a significant support level.
I think this market continues to be very noisy as liquidity becomes an issue, and of course people are trying to sort out whether or not demand is going to pick up or fall from here. I do think at this point it’s likely that we see a lot of indecision, so you need to be cautious with your position sizing, but we do have a couple of levels, previously mentioned, that are worth watching over the next several weeks. I think at this point, crude oil still on its back foot, but we also have to look at the fact that the support levels underneath our longer-term support levels, so we may be closer to the end of the selling that then we had been previously.
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Gold Markets Plunge Again
By: Christopher Lewis | December 11, 2023
• Gold markets fell again during the trading session on Monday, as we have broken significantly below the $2000 level.
Gold Market Technical Analysis
Gold markets fell again during the course of the trading session on Monday, as we continue to see a lot of downward pressure. The 50-Day EMA underneath suggest that we could see a little bit of support, and quite frankly we have plunged quite radically since we had that “blow off top” a couple of weeks ago. With this being the case, if we break down below the 50-Day EMA, then it’s possible that we could drop down to the $1950 level.
I think part of what we are seeing here is the fact that traders are taking massive profits heading into the holidays. Furthermore, we have the Federal Reserve meeting this week, right along with the Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, and European Central Bank. In other words, we could see a lot of noisy behavior in the interest-rate sectors around the world this week, so a lot of traders probably won’t be bothered to hold on to something that is so sensitive to those markets.
That being said, we are still very much in an uptrend, but we are clearly pressuring some major support levels. If we can turn around and take out the $2000 level to the upside, then we could go back toward the $2050 level, but whether or not we get that happening between now and New Year’s remains to be seen, but I do think that sooner or later value hunters will probably come back into the picture. We need to see some type of supportive candlestick and then a bounce, but at this point in time it certainly looks pretty dire.
It would not surprise me at all if gold bugs waited until after the holidays to start buying, but I am keeping an eye on the reaction to gold after the Federal Reserve meeting specifically, which of course is this Wednesday and could turn things around quite drastically. The selloff has been out of control, and now to be interesting to see if it finally slows down. Keep in mind that markets do tend to overreact and incorrect, and I think we are getting rather close to the possibility of seeing that happen.
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Macy's (M) Stock Surges on $5.8 Billion Buyout Offer
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | December 11, 2023
• M is eyeing its biggest single-day percentage gain since January 2022
• Options volume is running at four times the intraday average
Macy's Inc (NYSE:M) is getting an early Christmas present. Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital reportedly made a $5.8 billion offer to take the retailer private, in a deal that values the shares they don't already own at $21, or a 20.8% premium to the security's most close.
M is surging in response, last seen up 16.3% at $20.22. The equity is eyeing its biggest single-day percentage gain since January 2022, and trading above the $20 region for the first time since March. The shares are also now trading firmly above their 320-day moving average, and sport a 49.8% quarter-to-date lead.
Macy's stock could be in for a short squeeze. Short interest rose 22.6% over the last reporting period, and the 38.76 million shares sold short make up 14.4% of the equity's available float. A round of bull notes could also generate tailwinds, since the 12-month consensus target price of $15.42 is now a massive 23.1% deficit to M's current price.
The options pits are exploding with activity today, with 29,000 calls and 10,000 puts traded so far, which is four times the intraday average volume. Most popular is the December 20 call, followed by the 19.50 call in that same series, with positions being opened at both.
Premium can be had for a bargain right now, per Macy's stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 50% that stands in the relatively low 17th percentile of readings from the past year. This suggests options traders are now pricing in lower-than-usual volatility expectations.
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Applovin $APP Put Writing into the 05/17/24 $25 Puts at the Bid
By: FLOWrensics | December 11, 2023
• $APP PUT WRITING into the 05/17/24 $25 PUTS at the BID.
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$50+ Million of $SPX OTM Calls Just Came Through
By: Cheddar Flow | December 11, 2023
• Woah. $50M+ of $SPX OTM Calls Just Came Through
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2 Retail Stocks Rising After Upgrades
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | December 11, 2023
• Best Buy and Nike were both upgraded today
• BBY and NKE have been on the move in the last few months
The retail sector is taking center stage as the holiday season hits high gear. Today, the focus is on retail stocks Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE:BBY) and Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) after notable upgrades this morning.
BBY is 2.6% higher to trade at $75.03 at last check, after Jefferies raised its rating to "buy" from "hold" and hiked its price target to $89 -- a 20% upside to last night's close. The Wall Street analyst believes the pandemic purchases' "replacement cycle" will begin soon, and improved store traffic shown in its third-quarter report should "more than offset slowing web traffic."
On the charts, Best Buy stock is testing $75, which has been an area of consolidation over the last few weeks that coincides with its 320-day moving average. Year-to-date, BBY is down 6.4%, but has tacked on 20% off its Nov. 10 annual low of $62.30.
Elsewhere, Nike stock is 2.3% higher to trade t $118.58, after Citi upgraded the blue-chip retailer to "buy" from "neutral," with a price target hike to $142 from $119. The brokerage firm cited lower freight charges, leaner inventory, fewer promotions, and a strong position in China. Citi said NKE is a "one-of-a-kind brand with visible margin recovery creates a favorable risk reward."
Nike stock is trading at its highest mark since late-April, guided higher by its ascending 20-day moving average. The shares have reclaimed their year-to-date breakeven level today, and are up 24% this quarter alone.
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Options-Related Sentiment Readings Can Begin To Flash Red Should S&P 500 Break Out Of July High Post-FOMC
By: Hedgopia | December 11, 2023
Complacency among equity bulls is growing but not extreme yet. With the S&P 500 ending last week right at the July high and breakout odds rising post-FOMC Wednesday, options-related sentiment readings can soon begin to flash red.
From July 27th to Oct 27th, the S&P 500 lost 503 points. Then from the October low to last Friday’s intraday high, the large cap index gained 505 points. For the bulls, it has been quite a ride the last six weeks – all of them up.
Last week, the bears drew the first blood, as by Wednesday the index was down one percent, but only for the bulls to come out swinging the last two sessions. When it was all said and done, the S&P 500 managed a 0.2-percent rise, ending right at the July high – 4607 (intraday) then and 4604 (4609 intraday) now (Chart 1). Back then, the S&P 500 reversed lower hard as soon as 4600 was crossed, ending the session at 4537. This time around, the bulls are staying put.
On Wednesday, the FOMC will let us know its interest rate decision. The policy-making body is going to leave the benchmark rates unchanged. That is a given. Also given is the fact that they are not going to say they have reached a terminal rate. Inflation has come down from last year’s four-decade highs but remains above the Federal Reserve’s two percent target. There is a chance the equity bulls will try – and manage – to spin the FOMC statement to suit their bias. In this scenario, the S&P 500 will break out, surpassing the July high and probably taking out stops.
Help can come from VIX.
Last week, the volatility index gave back 0.28 point to 12.35, closing at the low. This was the lowest print since January 2020. In four of the five sessions, rally attempts were rejected at the 20-day moving average.
As things stand, VIX is clinging on to – or is in slight breach of – crucial horizontal support. VIX rallied in September and October, peaking at 23.08 on October 23rd. Prior to that, it found support at 13, or just south of it, in June through September (Chart 2). This level is being seriously tested. In fact, it has been slightly breached already, raising the risks the next level of support at 11-12 may just act like a magnet for now.
If things unfold this way in the sessions to come, the level of complacency currently evident in the markets will begin to flash red.
All through November and the first week this month, there has been a sustained buildup in optimism in the options market – evident in both the CBOE equity-only put-to-call ratio and the ISEE index. Unlike the former, the latter is a call-to-put ratio (hence inverted in Chart 3) and excludes trades from market makers and broker/dealers. In addition, it only uses opening long trades. So, from the perspective of sentiment reading, the latter is considered a clean number. Market makers, for instance, need to hedge exposure all the time. Retail traders on the other hand bet on direction.
Using the 21-day average, the ISEE index finished last Friday at 180.1 – the highest since April 19th last year – while at 0.699 the CBOE put-to-call ratio was the lowest since August 22nd this year. They are currently flashing yellow and could very well on the way toward the red zone.
The CBOE put-to-call ratio has been in the 0.50s for six sessions in a row – and in seven of the last eight sessions. The 10-day average ended Friday at 0.618. There is a good chance by Tuesday it will have dropped to the high-0.50s – into the red zone (Chart 4). If the equity bulls pull off a rally on Wednesday post-FOMC, we are talking the mid-0.50s. Many a times in the past, the 10-day ratio has of course dropped into the 0.40s and even high-0.30s, but these are rare. Often, the ratio tends to turn up from the mid- to high-0.50s.
At the risk of oversimplification, excessive put buying can signal a bottom in stocks, while excessive call buying can signal a top. But this is not always so black and white.
An increase in put volume, for instance, may suggest retail traders are expecting a move lower, but they might very well be selling what they bought earlier. Or they might be deploying short puts or bull put spreads. Often, information can be gleaned from whether a trade is done at the bid or the ask, or from the way open interest has changed, but once again one large order can distort the picture.
Regardless, charts 3 and 4 are worth keeping an eye on, as they have consistently been a good guide to when complacency reaches the danger zone, or vice versa.
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Bullish Tech Flow Detected $QQQ $NVDA $AMZN
By: Cheddar Flow | December 11, 2023
• Bullish Tech Flow Detected
$QQQ $NVDA $AMZN
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More People Taking On 2 Jobs
By: Hedgeye | December 11, 2023
Today’s bonus chart depicts a rising trend in the number of individuals holding multiple jobs, with their primary job being full-time and the secondary job part-time. This increase, particularly sharp in recent years, suggests a growing need for additional income sources, which could be symptomatic of broader economic pressures on the average worker. While this may appear a disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street, stocks don't care whether your spending comes from a first or second job. And credit cheers your enthusiasm for responsibility.
The notorious Birth/Death adjustment model, while showing modest impact on November's report due to seasonality adjustments, has continued to deliver a steady 100K net jobs a month. These figures alone may paint an overly rosy picture of the employment situation. It's hard to speak "historically" about an index with less than 30 years of implementation and at least three major revisions to methodology, but history suggests caution once the Birth/Death adjustments account for over half of the net job creation. Recession incoming (or here once revisions are considered).
The reality, as shown by the rise in multiple jobholders, suggests that even with job creation, the quality and remuneration of these jobs may not be sufficient for individuals to meet their financial needs with a single source of income. This is especially true if the new jobs are not paying enough to keep pace with the cost of living or to allow for savings. Thus, workers turn to secondary part-time jobs to bridge the gap, a scenario not typically captured in the optimistic glow of Wall Street's metrics.
In essence, the burgeoning trend of holding multiple jobs reflects a Main Street making ends meet and compensating for stagnant wages or insufficient hours at their primary job. It's a stark reminder that while market indices can reach new heights, the underlying economic foundation for many can remain fragile and strained. Main Street is not living the same American Dream that Wall Street is currently.
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Today's 4 Stock Market Movers: $BMEA $CI $M $SNAP
By: Barchart | December 11, 2023
• Today's 4 Stock Market Movers: $BMEA $CI $M $SNAP
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Daily Global Capital Flows
By: Marty Armstrong | December 11, 2023
• Most Recent Daily Capital Flows:
• USA Inflows 0.84%
• Canada Outflows 0.06%
• Mexico Outflows 0.72%
• China Inflows 0.20%
• Japan Inflows 0.59%
• Thailand Inflows 1.40%
• Indonesia Outflows 0.03%
• Germany Outflows 0.31%
• France Outflows 0.31%
• Italy Outflows 0.31%
• United Kingdom Outflows 0.34%
• Brazil Inflows 0.30%
• Australia Inflows 0.35%
• Russia Outflows 0.24%
• India Inflows 0.14%
• South Africa Inflows 1.07%
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The 10 Top/Bottom S&P 500 Index percent net change performers
By: Thom Hartle | December 11, 2023
• Today (8:33 CST), the 10 top/bottom percent net change performers in theS&P 500 Index.
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