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According to Keeney's email "Dan Gralla said during that call that only gas had been found but it was too soon to make judgments about commerciality or the possibility of drilling additional prospect(s) in search of oil. That's what we said yesterday."
I think the key phrase is "only gas had been found".
That seems pretty clear to me. Explain why this statement leaves the door open to include oil or condensate.
Mr Hauser
Considering who you have said you are and thinking someone having that experience would have a rather in depth understanding of TA, I was surprised to read you bought today.
Would you be willing to share your analysis of whatever indicators you felt were in play? Or are you buying on a dip looking to cash in on news?
IMO, the chart appears to have suffered some damage opening the door to further downside.
Thank you sir, and, just for today, congrats on your friendship with Bill W.
May be wrong but I'm pretty sure the drillship wasn't manned by Chinese. And I'm pretty sure the Chinese weren't the only oil companies involved.
So... no.
Thanks
But it's too late.
Never said it was the best block. Only that it was originally perceived to have great value. I guess the point that I am making is that by your statements, it appears that CVX is trying to dump something that just didn't pan out. You say it has value to nobody but Total. If that is the case, it doesn't help any arguments that promote ERHE and the JDZ. It only adds evidence that just maybe there ain't all that much down there.
I gotta hope that if Total really is interested, that they are willing to pay up big time because there is real interest in the block.
That would be a possible explanation if it were only Chinese in China.
Few companies ever comment one way or another regarding rumors. Rare occasions when there is a huge PPS move attributed to the rumor are the exception.
Are you saying CVX has no use for the block? That it is totally worthless to them? That block was one of the prime spots in the original auction. Surely one of the other JDZ operators or even another company would see some synergies in its ownership IF their is hydrocarbons. It may carry more value to Total than anyone else but if it has hydrocarbons it will have enough value on the market that Total doesn't have CVX over the barrel.
Disagree
Certainly a case could be made for the block to be worth more to Total than others, but the price CVX can command for the block is valuable information. Don't ya think they would sell to the high bid?
The only questions I have is does anyone know what CVX paid for the block 1 rights?
And believe I've read estimates of 50M per hole, is this correct?
Agreed, however the important numbers to me are what anyone would pay and that is greatly influenced by what CVX would sell it for. A (IMO) valuble place to start crunching numbers is to figure CVX's investment. Would they sell for a substantial loss or would they be able to sell at a profit would reflect on the value of that oil.
Thank you for the civil reply. This stock (from an investment standpoint) has not been the best investment I've made. I've owned shares for about 7 years in a regular brokerage account at a basis of about .35 That would be a double right now should I sell them but over 7 years, that ain't so great. I've traded this stock in a couple old IRAs and have done relatively well. They are empty of ERHE shares right now. Probably buy some again if P2 is activated. I obviously believe that the potential for EHRE has been excellent for some time. I'm just beginning to see some things that are easily the most negative attacks on that ERHE potential that I've seen in those 7 years. Yes, even worse than the investigations, which just happen to be the last time I was active on this board. I dream, but I'm a lite sleeper.
Is the process of asking questions and using one's experience to interpret sources being negative?
Feel free to engage in discussion of pertinent ERHE issues or put me on ignore. Trust me, it's no biggie.
But for those who would wish to dig right in, does anyone remember how much CVX paid for their block 1 rights? If you add those to their known expenses drilling test wells, wouldn't that be a good place to start thinking of what CVX would want to get to breal even. Seems anything less might give a bad message and something more would indicate real value. Thoughts?
I'm a bit more skeptical regarding the WSJ. And totally skeptical of any article that cites "sources" other than the parties involved. There are buy-outs and mergers reported all the time in the WSJ that never happen.
Regardless
What about the timing of a deal like this? The board loves to talk timing. It seems all wrong to me. And the timing of all these 3rd party anonymous reports is questionable at the the least.
Wow
Reading the board for clues to the runup today would make someone think that Total had paid some huge way over the top number for CVX's share of block 1.
Has this happened?
Has Total announced their interest or participation in ongoing negotiations?
Or was this speculation in some article based on a "source" for who knows what reasons?
And if CVX doesn't think they can develop Block 1 profitably and they choose to not go forward with Phase 2, wouldn't the block then be put up for sale by CVX or go on auction at a very reduced number?
Timing seems strange for an over the top type of offer. Timing for all these rumors seems really good if someone wanted to get off some serious shares before a Phase 2 walk. Didn't someone post that over 1/2 of ERHE's shares were Nigerian owned? I don't suppose they could start rumors and give tips to hungry writers for their own designs, could they?
If these aren't possibilities or even good possibilities I'd like to hear why in a reasonable and mature manner.
BTW, for those of you rushing to your keyboard to spew a bunch of nasty "basher" stuff in my direction... I'll just consider that a vote for the worst. I've got a feeling others would too. But don't let that stop you.
alwright - Can you finish this post?
And - is it Tuesday yet?
Midtier - Did I miss an announcement that Sinopes is going forward with Phase 2 or does this post mean something else?
That bsk2007 guy is a pretty sharp fella, eh?
When someone can put their info out there in such a way as to teach and be understood, well, they gotta know their stuff to do that.
BTW, he's the poster that said that our partners would act just like Chevron when it was their turn.
He understands.
mr. alwright
Cause you asked...
No. I have no illusions of swaying any investors. I'm much too concerned about my own investments to worry about anyone elses.
And no, it's not an ego thingy. Not that I even understand how the ego thingy would work on an anonymous message board. Sort of pointless, dontcha think? And I do have a healthy ego.
I just wanted some intelligent feedback on an important piece of information.
And in spite of some posters' best efforts, I got some.
Don't worry, when Tuesday gets here I'll still be a shareholder just as I have been a shareholder since 2003. So will almost all of the people I've put on this stock over the last almost 7 years.
BTW, was your question rhetorical?
Here's a quote from a poster way back in Spring of 06, commenting on how OBO1 "results" were announced by Chevron.
"There won't be much difference in how CVX is acting and how our partners will act when it's their turn"
One of the few really great prognostications we've seen.
BTW, the rest of the post was also spot on.
Who dat said dat?
Sorry bout the increasing typos. My batteries in the keyboard must be on the fritz. Or my fingers.
That only says they aren't including it in their valuation of their holdings. Dana picked up their block 4 rights when they aquired Centurion. The rights were obviously an afterthought as their main desire was Centurion's Egyptian gas properties. I have not been able to discern fron any of the filings what carried value the block 4 rights were assigneed in the deal.
Let's look at the progression of what they've said over their last three financial reports.
2Q09 - they say there is a drill ship coming 3rd quarter
3Q09 - they say Kina 1x is sucessfully drilled. Studies are underway to determine if gas find is commercial. Malanza expected to spud shortly.
Full Year 09 - Kina is not considered commercial. Malanza found no hydrocarbons.
Even if the discussion about how and why Dana values block 4 is dropped completely, the statements made in their last report state clearly that Kina and Malanza sucked.
Is the sky falling? Not yet. Will it? Who knows? Are those some kinda ugly clouds blowing in from Danaland? That's obviously in the eyes of the beholder but they look dark around the edges to me.
BTW, IMO insinuating that I'm am some kind of pumper/basher does not reflect well on you.
Why do you think nobody has seen the results? I think that what is written in the report is pretty clear. Granted, the information was on only two wells but what's there is there.
Isn't the real question - how does this affect ERHE's valuation? Or - Can we even tell anything by it as it relates to ERHE's value?
And where do you see they wrote it off mid 2009?
Lots of possibilities. Lots of theories. I'll always look and listen I guess I'm most comfortable taking things at face value when it comes to audited reports. I'mm also skeptical, doubting, hard to convince...
and I prepare for the worst while hoping for the best.
That conservative attitude and the seemingly contradictive active interest in playing high risk type markets has done quite well. Most people who are successful at playing with rattlesnakes do so quite carefully.
Thanks for your input. I always appreciate your posts.
Well thought.
And researched.
And presented.
Thanks
mid's page 37 "information" was before drilling results were available to Dana. Dana received the results and have wrote off or wrote down block 4's value. It is as simple as that. In fact, the idea exressed in the report mid posted is the only valuation I've seen from Dana regardfing the blocks, pre drill. What we see, or are being shown, simply sucks for adding to the luster of ERHE's holdings in block 4. IMO, better to accept it for what it appears to be and hope and look for Evidence that it ain't so bad.
Probably a good thing to be skeptical about every poster regardless of time on the board. FWIW, I came out of the woodwork (a cabinet, not a closet) to this board in 2006. I have a nice little batch of shares qualified for capital gains and I trade this stock consistently in my IRAs. No evildoer here although my IRAs are now empty. Not so sure I'll fill them again til I see some stage 2 committment.
I've read that here before. Not so sure where that started but I'm more than willing to look at your evidence of Sinopec being hush hush.
One of the problems I'm seeing (right or wrong) is that this board believes that if you say it enough it becomes true. Is that what has happened with this?
Another problem I see is that the board's ranking of information sources seems askew. I would rate a company's independently audited statements a tad more highly than an anonymous message board poster or even a oil & gas rag. But I guess that's JMO.
Not sure what all that meant, wasn't trying to prove anything. Obfuscation maybe?
Anyway, here's something for you to ponder.
Look at Dana's pr history. Does it look like there would be any delay in shouting to the world that they found something?
The reality is that Dana felt it necessary to revalue their block 4 holding. I haven't seen anyone post anything that quantifies what that really means. Nothing personal, sir, your post doesn't. And all this calling things fraudulent and other poopooing of the facts doesn't. I'm pretty sure the only thing that will is a deeper look into their past filings and a properly timed call to their IR. Maybe I'll share what I find when I get a chance to do so.
BTW (to the board), pretty sure this isn't a reason to bail so don't get yer'all panties too bunched up over a reasonable look at the truth.
walldog
You actually have to read more than just the article. Go back in Dana's filings. You'll see the only Nigerian property they have interest in is the JDZ. Read the article again. It refers to their Nigerian holdings. Do the math.
Sorry about your punchbowl. Clean it out next time before you use it. Or don't take it to the outhouse.
So sorry it was too harsh a term. Plug in whatever turns you on. I'm figuring most understood my post.
The reality is that the Dana report has collaboration and appears to be true. And ERHE is trading at .68 cents (or was).
What's your opine?
It's also in their PR. It's on news reports. It doesn't seem quite right that you are so censoring of the fact that Dana had to revalue their block 4 holdings. What's up with that?
Seems to me real dd would lean towards finding out where their value was and what it had become. At least, that's what I'll be doing after the close.
There are other sources for the same info. Some not so clear. Here's one most will recognize though it doesn't say block 4 it does say Nigeria.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLDE6110R020100202?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=11700
1,4,6,7,9,11
Wow
My picks in these playoffs have been really really poor
but
not nearly as poor as my San Diego stuper chargers played.
Oh well, time to get out the Padres gear.
Such is life for a San Diego sports fan.
Unfulfilled promise and dashed hopes. Year after year.
2-4-5-8-10-11-14-16--18-19-21-23
Hmmmmm. Did things change or was I mistaken from the getgo that the tiebreaker would last the whole playoffs?
1-3-5-7-9-12-13-15-17-20-22-23
Let's see if I have this correct.
Everyone can play in the playoff pool. It's a totally new game.
In addition to the totally new playoff pool winner/winners for the totally new playoff pool prizes, regular season pool one loss players will also use their results from the playoff pool to break their tie and decide the final order of finish of the one loss players for the regular season pool prizes.