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Same to you NW!
I owned this stock previously, but sold at a loss. It is getting tempting again in the $1 to $1.3 range, especially with the bad times in the lithium and similar markets creating a bottom or close to it. I have not followed it much recently, but it looks like it is sort of a darling of the Canadian government thanks to its patents and research. It seems that this may help it get good contracts with battery and car companies to provide higher level technology without having to spend on big manufacturing plants, which others would do. It also seems that they may be able to work with other similar companies entering the Canadian battery hub like Northvolt, Umicore, etc.
Do you or others here care to comment on this and share any other insights you may have since you have been longer in this?
Thanks and GLTAH!
Well, it looks like mine will be the first post in thread. I hope more people will get interested over time. I owned both Allkem and Livent, so I now own Arcadium after the merger. It is true that it has been painful for lithium lately, but I am in it for the long haul since I see Arcadium as one of the most diversified lithium producers in terms of products an geography, with excellent resources, downstream processing, trading in the NYSE, and much less risk than others. GLTAH!
I didn’t see your post until today, sorry. I still think that Arcadium will do well long term and is at least not at risk like many other juinior explorers and producers of lithium. I just posted in the Arcadium board (Altm). Good luck!
BTW I have not sold a single share!
GLTAH!
“FIRST SHIPMENT! The news that we were expecting is finally here! Congratulations to all holders!
https://clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/SYA/02693381.pdf
Lots of great announcements coming: Carbonate PFS for NAL, NAL offtake agreement, lots of drilling and resource upgrades, first revenue next quarter, PFS Moblan, and much more.
Sayona long!
I love the merger of LTHM with OROCF not only because it will become the third largest lithium producer with great diversification of resources and products, but also because it is a natural full of synergies. They have brine resources next to each other in Argentina, the same in Quebec (just a bit farther), similar goals of vertical integration, and they can share expertise (LTHM in hydroxide and DLE; OROCF in spodumene, and both in carbonate). I think that the 54% OROCF 46% LTHM deal perhaps should have been 60%-40% or even a bit more favorable to OROCF, but LTHM provides great intangibles like entry to the NYSE, access to the Biden’s credits, better international commercialization and excellent expertise in hydroxide and DLE. The one thing they must do is to keep growing quickly while managing funds wisely. They need to execute efficiently in Canada, Argentina and even Australia, where they should purchase new resources for the future since Mt. Catlin may not last more than a few years. LTHM will also benefit from being less linked to China thanks to OROCF’s connection with Japan and their mutual interest to supply North America..
PS I added a similar post in the OROCF site and I own both stocks
This is a great merger not only because it will become the third largest lithium producer with great diversification of resources and products, but also because it is a natural full of synergies. They have brine resources next to each other in Argentina, the same in Quebec (just a bit farther), similar goals of vertical integration, and they can share expertise (LTHM in hydroxide and DLE; OROCF in spodumene, and both in carbonate). I think that the 54% OROCF 46% LTHM deal perhaps should have been 60%-40% or even a bit more favorable to OROCF, but LTHM provides great intangibles like entry to the NYSE, access to the Biden’s credits, better international commercialization and excellent expertise in hydroxide and DLE. The one thing they must do is to keep growing quickly while managing funds wisely. They need to execute efficiently in Canada, Argentina and even Australia, where they should purchase new resources for the future since Mt. Catlin may not last more than a few years.
I am invested in several lithium companies, I am frankly surprised that OROCF does not get much attention in USA and Canada. I think this will change soon.
I am not a chart guy, but I do know that the SMA50 should surpass the SMA200 in the next week or two for a golden cross, which is a strong bullish signal. GLTAH
Nice update. Let’s get to production this quarter, followed by a ramp up to nameplate capacity. It will likely take several months. My hope is that we get to 200k+ ton/yr next year, and hopefully earlier on a quarterly basis. This will take care of selling to PLL, while having extra revenue sold at higher prices to help fund all the great stuff being planned.
Let’s go Sayona!
Not too shabby!
Impressive!
I am in a similar position in that I have enough shares and don’t need more, but never say never!
Long Sayona!
I agree. The offstake agreement(s) will come for carbonate/hidroxide. They can sell Spodumene in open market and in short term sales.
Bought my first shares today. Spodumene deal with Sayona, which I also own, is too good to pass.
GLTAH
It is a bit frustrating, but I think that BAPE will be approved because of Authier’s much simpler operation as a rock quarry with not much post processing other than sending the material to NAL. In addition, the partial acquisition of Jordan’s tenements should also decrease the pressure to get Authier ore. I don’t think that the market here will react much until Australia reacts first, but we will see….
I am now going to watch the video you shared. Thanks
I hope we get a nice surprise or two in the annual meeting, but I feel very positive regardless.
Good points too, thanks. I am still hoping for the best, especially in NV, but I will wait and see how this new situation develops. I have also done quite well with this stock with several excellent swing trades and an average around $8.5 in my core position.
GLTAH
I understand your position. I am not a big fan of handouts either but I will take it if helps NV. However, I am still on the fence about this split. I am beginning to think that it is due to a combination of LAC trying to get the federal funding and the US/Canada playing hard ball with China (Refer to article I posted yesterday). What puzzles me is that Cauchari was going to generate hundreds of millions per year, which would have helped fund NV and I doubt that the Federal funding would exceed more than that plus it would be a one time deal (Piedmont received $142M). So only the LAC in South America will benefit from Cauchari as Gangfeng calls the shots and probably buys the whole thing. Maybe I am missing something (?) because the stock has been going up since yesterday. I am still holding and happy with the bump, but I remain cautious about the recent news.
My response posted twice and I edited this one, sorry. Please see my other post.
…I guess that I will be happy if NV gets the green light, gets federal funding or it is sold at a nice price. I am just not so sure about Cauchari as I don’t like Gangfeng calling the shots in terms of decisions, buyers, pricing, etc. I simply don’t trust them and I would not doubt if Gangfeng would start playing games in order to buy LAC’s portion of Cauchari cheap. It is ironic that LAC would not be able to use the only asset that is about to generate revenue to help NV, where this revenue would probably dwarf any Federal funding. I hope that I am wrong.
My read is similar and I would have preferred to keep the company as it is now. One possible reason for this proposal is that it may be easier for NV to obtain some of the funding help from Biden’s infrastructure bill if the company has no ties to China (Gangfeng). Piedmont Lithium just received $142M from this source for is TN plant, and Lithium NV would probably try to do the same. The other possibility is that one or both of the new companies may be set for a buyout and this split is in preparation for such event. Whichever the reason for the split, I hope it works out for us, but I have my doubts ever since LAC allowed Gangfeng to own 51% of Cauchari, which was a mistake IMHO. And speaking of the Chinese:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/canada-orders-three-foreign-firms-divest-investments-critical-minerals-2022-11-02/
GLTAH, DYOR, etc……
Very nice group and it is also good to see Piedmont in it.
Yes, Piedmont plans to build plants in both States plus it also has other investments elsewhere. The issue is that its NC plant has been delayed due to local opposition so it may not be receiving Spodumene from NAL any time soon. This means that the entire Spodumene production from NAL may need to be sold to others. At the same time, it is in Sayona’s best interest to expedite its carbonate (plus maybe hydroxide) refinery in or near NAL, which needs to happen by 2026 per the Canadian agencies (eg., IQ). The question is whether or not there will be much of a time window for Piedmont to build its plant and buy the higher of 50% NAL production or 113k ton/yr of Spodumene at the very low rate of $900/ton. I doubt this will happen for at least a couple of years, but I could be wrong, and in a way they do deserve it since they helped Sayona win the NAL bid. My hope is that the companies will work together to get good money from NAL from Spodumene soon and from refined lithium later, while supporting Sayona’s effort to expedite the refinery by 2026. I think they are working together based on recent announcements, but I am no expert and could be missing key details.
My understanding is that this has to do with the changes to Authier and internal accounting. The initial plan was to produce Spodumene at Authier, but this did not occur due to the difficulties with the BAPE and change of plans. Instead, the company decided to excavate ore at Authier and transport it to NAL, which will mix 1/3 ore from Authier and 2/3 from NAL to produce 6% Spodumene. The change in plans required a nominal fee to be paid for Authier’s ore. I think it is mostly internal accounting between the two locations, but I don’t think it makes much difference because it is simply a transfer of money between the two sites.
The comments from Laroque and Liberte that you shared are more important to me in that they state that Spodumene from NAL will go to China while the company works on the carbonate plant. This suggests that Piedmont will not be receiving Spodumene at least initially since it has no plant to process it yet. As such, the Spodumene should be sold at a much higher price, which will benefit both Sayona and Piedmont. It looks to me like initial production will be shipped this way until carbonate is produced, but I am not sure if or when Piedmont will be entitled to its 113k ton/yr later next year or if one of its plants eventually starts producing. I suspect that the companies must be working on some changes to the existing agreement to make sure that all the parties are in compliance with the new plans and that they present the same message. I think they will.
Others here are welcome to chime in with better information.
12% increase in 1 month, wow! Plus similar trends for spodumene and hydroxide. I can’t wait for Sayona to start generating revenue next year.
All good choices. There is always risk, which are mainly geopolitical, but there is lots of momentum and I think the sector will remain very strong for 3-5 years and possibly much longer. Thank you and best of luck with your investments
Look like we have the trains for our Spodumene. I also think that this material will go at least initially to customers other than Piedmont.
All aboard, choo, choo!
https://sayonamining.com.au/wp/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/SYA_Rail_18-Oct-22.pdf
Thank you!
So your take is that the $70M is for the 1k tons in the first year and the $400M is for the the entire 3 years or 7k tons? That may explain it, but the slide is confusing.
Thank you
I still have my shares and I am happy that Electra is inching closer and closer to production. I have a question for you, Dawgtrading, Slow and Steady and any others who may want to chime in.
Slide 6 of the October/2022 Corporate Presentation shows the following for the 7000 ton deal with LG:
-Value of agreement is approximately $400M*
-Agreement will generate $70M in revenue*
Can one of you explain the difference between the two values? It seems to me that it may be that the initial deal of $70M with LG may be a preferential initial agreement (e.g., for ELBM to prove itself, to play nice with LG in order to secure contracts in the future, etc.), while the $400M could reflect what ELBM could expect in the open market. I would also think that ELBM would be getting higher prices for the excess 40% that LG is not getting.
I could be wrong on this, so I would appreciate if one of you can clarify the apparent discrepancy between the $70M and $400M.
Thank you and enjoy the weekend!
Wow! Looks like you are also busy posting here. Pilbara deserves it as it is a great company.
GLTAH
Yes TC. I have lots of OROCF and SYAXF, and good positions in LAC, LTHM and SQM. I also have a bit of ELBM and hydrogen in the green sectors and I have been thinking about NNOMF and perhaps a smallish lithium miner in Australia. I wish I had Pilbara, which I believe you have. I redistribute occasionally. Please let me know if you have other companies you like.
Thanks
Announcement of PFS for Moblan by 5/23 with DFS following by 9/23, give or take a few months because that is how it often works in the lithium sector.
https://sayonamining.com.au/wp/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/SYA_ASX-Announ_20221005_Moblan-PFS-Award.pdf
I was hoping for a draft PFS, but I don’t waiting a few more months. It is understandable because the company needs to fully evaluate the plan for Moblan, just like it is happening with NAL/Authier. We should be getting other results to spice things up as we wait for the PFSs. I look forward to more news on lithium/gold drill results, BAPE, resource upgrade, earthwork progress, etc. An offtake agreement or even some sort of MOU with the Korean or other companies would be of great help. However, I know how to remain patient and will continue to keep my shares.
LONG SAYONA!
IQ and the Quebec government, which did not change after the election, must love Sayona’s commitment to refine. It is nice to know that they are requiring refined lithium by 2026. Piedmont can only play delay tactics for so long to gets its dirt cheap spodumene, and realize that carbonate and eventually hydroxide will do better for them. I am ok with Piedmont receiving spodumene for a while, but Sayona should try to transition to refined lithium ASAP (well before 2026 if possible). Being a small company may delay things a bit, but Sayona has plenty of personnel with previous mining/processing experience in both NAL and Altura.
Yes he did and we needed this.
The announcement does not include that much in specific details and may indirectly imply some delays, but it helped tremendously. It shows that the commitment is carbonate at NAL first. Equally important is that Piedmont has committed for the ride to refine, which should help dispel some of the inconsistencies in messaging and rumors in some forums that Piedmont had other plans, etc. I think that the companies are working behind the seens on new contract terms for an accelerated transition to refining and we should see soon if there are changes in the existing agreements. I would love to know if there may be any changes in their spodumene agreement and in Piedmont’s share. I just hope that Piedmont’s messaging will be consistent with Sayona’s as both companies will benefit from refined lithium. It is time for them to execute and get us to production.
Great day for SYAXF and its holders!
Split Fusion is in my opinion the best contributor in SYA’s HC site. He is knowledgeable, objective, humble and visited NAL/Authier a few months ago. Earlier today he answered a question I had regarding the existing carbonate plant at NAL. Great guy to follow to get good insights on Sayona.
Thanks for sharing!
I agree with your observations as well as Tritium’s of recent behavior by SYA vs SYAXF and the comparison with Pilbara. Pilbara is often mentioned as a larger Sayona with its reliance on Spodumene, but Sayona may transition relatively quickly to the much more lucrative refined carbonate and hydroxide if it plays its cards right with partners, off take agreements etc. Not long ago, SYAXF would tend to follow but have better days than SYA despite the much lower volume here. Oh well, I will be happy as long as Sayona keeps moving. As I said, a solid announcement soon would keep the rally going and may even help the stock take a quantum leap.
Patiently waiting….
It would be nice to get an announcement or two with substance this month or next. It would probably take SYAXF above $0.3. The upcoming uplisting to the ASX200 should help too. I am holding to all my shares.