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I gotta say, you are the master on the Andrews Fork!
Bought some RYDEX/Guggenheim longs at the AM price.
Weekly needs a breather.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p64509708161
Thanks.
All sorts of oversold indicators not really working. Neg Div building in the $VIX. Looking for us to hit 20.5 reading to give another oversold signal.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p52025019122&a=287788386
Is this what you are thinking?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p45789459780&a=306752352
Meaning full sell off into a rally to test the old highs and then go on investing vacation for 2 years? See 2000 and 2007.
Thanks, it looks like what I came up with.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPCE&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p72835389937
I think I am looking for a 60 min version. I will work on it.
No intraday CPCE available on Stockcharts.
ROCKS, do you have a $CPCE chart that you have used in the past. Trying to construct one now.
G, do you or Footster have a good daily $CPCE chart. I did really well using that as a short indicator during the 2007-2009 meltdown. TIA
That coiling on the stochastic is worth watching. The weekly $VIX has pushed outside the upper BB, so I think it takes a breather for a day or two, but the BB will reset come Monday and it will be a mute point.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p64509708161
Well, we sure are oversold as measured by the $VIX. Note the negative divergence.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p52025019122&a=287788386
If this run up is the result of free FED money, and I believe a good part of this leg is, then oversold is meaningless in the short term. The summation indexes are still pointing down.
We hit the mid BB on the weekly $SPX as I suggested, so that should act as temp support, but the weekly charts are not oversold.
The daily $spx chart is not exactly oversold, and it's now in a downtrend as measured by the MACD.
I was looking for 1583 in my post, so 1588 is close enough. $VIX outside the upper BB and daily SPX price outside the lower BB. Could be a nice buy the dip day trade tomorrow.
Like you, I believe we are going down, but I would be surprised if it was straight down. 1600 and 1580 should be bounce points. That gap above is troubling, but it would be a classic island top.
Reloaded SSO 76.59 and 76.33. Sold now, 100 at 76.53. Can't help myself sometime.
See first half 2011.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=4&mn=8&dy=0&id=p22086033842
Bailed on the second position at 76.61...lucky, but watching the 1 and 5 min charts. There should be a decent intraday bounce. The hourly is waaay oversold.
1510 jives. Hate those overhead gaps.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=89200183
Stocks down and rates up. Perfect storm. When we say rates are market driven in the US, we mean the Feds artificial market. Flight to safety? Sure, why not when rates will be rising in the process.
Blow out the top BB.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p81164386018
In at 76.89 and 76.71 out at 77.01. We are waaay oversold on the 30 min and 60 min charts. That said, I agree with you re: Phase 1 as you call it and posted some targets in an earlier post.
Just bought some SSO for the intraday bounce. Day trade only.
Mid BB on the weekly is currently @ 1583 and rising. That should provide support. The 50 weekly EMA is around 1488 and rising and is sitting right on the lower weekly BB. Keeping an eye on the 5,1 stochastic on the weekly. When that moves into oversold territory we should get a bounce.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p70691858177&a=288574612
Nice breakout which is now looking like a head fake.
Hey John, are the Hurst cycles still as they were in the post I responded to? Thanks
No, I don't know what that is. Honestly, I rarely have time to visit this site during the day any longer.
Dude nailed it again! I believe he called the bottom on the exact day.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=81539974
Technically speaking I see your logic, but I see the $VIX and it looks like it's overbought. Upper BB on the daily SPX around 1660. now. Monthly chart shows the upper BB to be right around the current price and that should collar the market from going much higher.
1631.38 gap closed. We're now OBDT on the 60 minute. We should have a pullback here which could lead to a nice buying op.
Well, even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes.
I figured we would hit 1600 and bought some SSO on the plunge. I dumped everything at the close. We might chop around here. I could see us hitting 1630-1640.
Daily $VIX is overbought. Weekly $VIX has some room to go higher.
We're pretty oversold on this chart and some others I use.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/McSumNASD.html
Watching for the dots to bunch up. If the market turns up quickly, this indicator lags.
Sounds like a plan. Weekly mid BB is at 1570 right now. What does our contrary indicator say?
Looking for an ST bounce. Right now I am all in cash with the exception of a small RYDEX long taken at today's AM price.
ST the $VIX daily is overbought. The $NASI is pointing to down or at least consolidation. If you look at a monthly chart and you assume we visit the mid BB, then you have to assume we could touch down to 1425-1475 depending on what month that touch occurs.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&yr=15&mn=0&dy=0&id=p21605455241
Nice chart. Thanks for sharing.
$VIX is ST overbought IMO. We should get a short term bounce here IMO.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p28551464808&a=287788386
Sold SDS at the close. The hourly is way oversold. Look to reload on the bounce.
Last hour sell off in the $TNX...yeah.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&id=p47164982523
Started buying SDS today.
Short term, we should get a good pop down, but that would put the $vix in overbought territory.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p52025019122&a=287788386
Good stuff!
I am seriously thinking about selling our house, but probably won't be practical until the spring. Our house value is up 15% in the last 18 months. Check out tax rates in Lake County, IL. Unfreaking believable. That's reason #2.
Did a mortgage refi for a client in Highland Park, IL last year. $4,000,000 on the lake front. Property taxes we just over $80,000. That's not a typo.
Bigger picture looks like we are still on track for move to 1600-1620. Ultimately I am looking at the mid BB as the bounce point.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p93221413093
We could certainly repeat Oct 2006 - Oct 2007, but when the DI- gets down to 9 or 10 on the weekly chart, it's time to exercise caution.
Short term, $VIX is overbought IMO.
No real sign of a diamond top IMO, but the $VIX Weekly looks interesting. The daily $VIX looks just about done. Maybe another day of selling.
This chart, which I believe is yours, catches my eye though:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX:$VXO&p=D&st=2009-01-01&en=%28today%29&id=p75159859667&a=230553765
I am watching the $VIX here. Will it become overbought in a downtrend or actually cross the zero line and move higher. Second item of note is that the monthly SPX is right up against the upper BB. I don't see us rebounding much if at all because of that. Interest rates ridiculously low, but are moving up in what appears to be a meaningful move.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&yr=7&mn=8&dy=0&id=p51291574111
Talk about a bubble....
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NIKK&p=M&yr=7&mn=8&dy=0&id=p80883432493
I bought some 2X Japan yesterday at RYDEX/Guggenhiem after the sell off Wed. I was quite happy when it was up 3% and then shaking my head when it was down 2% 2 hours later. I put that hot potatoe down today and leave it alone.
NIK was also way outside the BB's. Pull up some monthly charts on the NIKK and SPX. If the index pops it's head above the BB's it's at least time to go to cash.
Daily $VIX should have a blow out today as well so watch for the snap back rebound on Friday or Tuesday.
Smells like a blow off top today. The DI- reading on the DMI daily is now at 7. That is waaaay overbought.
If I were to take an educated guess at the future...we sell off for a couple of days. Rally to test the highs and then we get a meaningful correction.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p23147646862
Supply is way down. Where I live, housing prices in my area are up a good 15% over last year. I am honestly thinking of selling and buying something smaller in a couple of years. Of course, I have to convince the wife. As you said, inventory shortage is bank made and will not last.
Tax bill just came...up 24% from last year. Value goes down, no problem, just increase the multiplier. WTF
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NASI&p=W&yr=4&mn=6&dy=0&id=p44566062240&a=79741980
Momo is still up, but we have hit the upper BB on the monthly. Overbought and against the upper BB on the monthly. At the very least, not a place to add to longs.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NDX&p=M&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p25942804900
I not sure what you are referring to as far as being a member? I have an account there. Some funds are twice daily funds. Most are not including the Japan 2x fund.
2x NDX and SPX are. Ditto with Inverse 2x NDX and SPX.
Thanks for the chart. See charts I just posted.
I use the ADX as well. The trend is strong, so I look at February as a bit of a road map. Also note that price on the monthly chart has exceeded the BB.