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Hey Northram,
Today's trade was a day trade due to being waaaay outside the weekly SPX BB. I did the same thing with Rydex/Guggenheim funds at today's a.m. price. I closed half of those positions at the close as we are still well outside the weekly SPX lower BB,l but the severness of this downdraft gives on pause.
I began closing 401K longs in late August based on the $VIX and some negative divergences on the indexes. I wrote a post to Gleno that it's been a very long time since the spx touched the mid BB on the monthly chart. We're almost there. 1815 looks like a pivot area and we came really close to that today. 1905 is now resistance.
Support at 1815, but with that said, I started to scale in to SSO at 103.87. Avg cost is now 102.92. Why did I buy? We are now 40 spx points below the lower BB on the weekly chart. Look at the second half of 2011 on the daily.
Hey Gleno,
How are you? Pull up a daily $vix chart. There is an overhead gap at @ 19.50. If we spike down in the a.m. and fill that gap that may make for a good long daytrade. Weekly $vix outside the upper BB as well. That does not mean we can't get higher volatility, just that is might take a breather for a day or two.
We have not had a touch of the Mid BB on the monthly SPX in a loooong time.
Looks like it's a Russia/Ukraine and Muslim radicals news driven market. The markets were overbought on the weekly charts. Now we are sitting on the uptrend line on the daily $SPX. Currently the daily and weekly $vix are overbought. IF this is the big one, we should get a rally here up to or around the mid BB at around 1950 before resuming lower.
WOW, QLD gap closed...in a blink.
I think it was a big enough company were you have to just slash costs(people) like crazy to cut costs, but if other overhead is high and you can't cut it anymore, you are left with the very difficult decision to just close down or risk going completely broke.
LOOK at the daily charts of the $SPX and $NDX, they don't look in sync IMO. The former looks like it's toppy, but not bad, the later looks to have started a correction already.
Lot of these people were business owners. I had one guy go through $3,000,000 in 4 years trying to keep his business afloat. After we got the tax returns in, we decided to pass. He had $7,000,000 with us prior to the market crash and his business going south.
That said, yes, some people did use their funds for the purchase of depreciating assets most likely.
98 gap is the magnet on QLD. We are quite oversold however, so some bounce is due. I added to my RYDEX longs at the close yesterday and bailed this a.m. OK on SPX longs, but hammered on RYDEX QLD positions. Good news I would be getting more hammered if I held.
Weekly $vix still on a buy.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=W&yr=5&mn=8&dy=0&id=p14760315517
CA has the best stories. $2,000,000 home at the peak. $1.2 mil first and 400K heloc for a total of 80% loan to value. House now worth $1.4 mil. Heloc due in full. No money to pay the heloc in full. Rhetorical question, but what do you do. I know the answer, but I can't tell that to my client on a recorded line.
Yes, I know what a heloc is. You can pay principal if you wish. The point is it goes from an interest only payment to being due in full at the end of the 10 year. The don't ask you to start paying principal at the end of 10 years, the entire balance is due in a lump some or they start the foreclosure process.
HH, these "journalists" are idiots.
I worked in the mortgage sector for 11 years. A typical HELOC has a 10 year life span. When that 10 years is over, the note is due in full. You don't start to pay principal, you pay all the principal...like as in right now.
It's not just BMO Harris, it's any lender. There are exceptions, but for the most part it's a 10 year line of credit. So now, you are paying on 2 loans and here comes the "due in full" letter. Can't pay, no worries if you have 20% equity in your home they will open an new line for you and pay off the old one. No equity? Well, first they will stop taking your payments and then a few months later the foreclosure process will start. I don't think I ever met a borrower in that situation that knew how that worked.
Yeah, it seems like some custom measurement that we may never understand. I will keep an eye on it.
Today is the 5th of these intraday sell offs starting with 3/19.
Daily SPX chart looks like a bull flag. 2 hour chart shows a head and shoulders pattern. Weekly chart showing negative divergence. I would rather miss an up move at this juncture than get whacked by a strong correction.
Seems to be curve fitted. I pulled this off the net and it does not completely jive with the chart you posted, it does show a historically high PE ratio though. See 1937 and 1965.
http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/
Well, I thought we would get a bit more of a correction, but I jumped back in long on Monday and I don't see things going anywhere but up in the short term. Maybe we will get another neg D set up and that will be the top. $vix signalling more up.
Thanks, SilentOne. 1825 pivot on the daily. Last 60 min bottom on the $spx was 1824.58. Mid BB rising to the 1825 area. Looks like we are in the 30 min bounce zone.
When you mix major political events into the mix, it's a crap shoot in the very ST.
3 gaps opens in a row. Due a pullback. Closed part of the RYDEX/Guggen... longs from Wed/Thurs and just sold part of the SSO and QLD lots. Looking to buy back on a pull back. We're at resistance, but could easily gap over it too.
Glad your back and doing better. I think 2013 fooled a lot of us myself included. I had a bottom hit on Wednesday and I think we can retest 1850 and then we'll see. Thanks for the commentary.
Like they know....
Agree HH, I am just looking at the charts and seeing a bottom, albeit a temporary one. It it's truly a top, then they will rally the markets to keep the herd from panicking and possible draw more money in. Then....kaboom.
Weekly chart now says we are oversold in an uptrend. Look at a weekly chart of March 2007.
Ditto on the monthly. I will have to do some home work this weekend. Maybe we are setting up a major top, but it could be early in the process.
I got stopped out at 90.97.
I have a point and figure chart that I simply watch and don't use...or believe in. It moved up to 1990 for an SPX target which of course we never hit. Now it changed the target to 1620.
We're getting positive divergences on the 2 hour chart.
Daily indicators realllly oversold IMO.
let's see if the 200ma acts as a magnate. I bought some SSO on the burn here. I think we bounce here even if it's temporary.
We should get a nice, albeit temporary bounce here.
How goes it?
I think your 1770 target is right. The last 2 days pop and drop smells of distribution.
Yes, we like to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
NDX out side the monthly BB. If we project into November then the upper BB is about 3320 IMO.
IMO, we're near another IT top. Down into EOM possibly and then up into early Nov and then bigger down into Thanksgiving. Triple neg d on the weekly. We'll see. Caution until we pull back IMO.
2 hours $VIX getting overbought in a downtrend. Looking for 1 more spx dip by 10am cst and then we should bounce. Daily charts are iffy.
Like I said...we were outside the daily BB.
Check out the TNX. Better lock those rates.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=120&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p13030968394&a=288271962&listNum=1
Bigger pic looks like rates are headed back down????
What does that portend for the economy and the stock market??
Sold some trading longs at the close yesterday, just sold the remainder. Nasi says more up, but looking for a breather here as we have pushed outside the daily BB.
I would agree. I bought more longs on the dip this A.M. and sold them over the last hour along with some previously bought longs. The 1 hour $VIX is really oversold so a short pullback would be in order and provide the next buying opportunity.
The $NASI is still pointing down. With that said we were waaaay oversold mid day yesterday. I bought some SSO and a really small amount of RYDEX funds at the close, but I did not expect the bungee cord rally. As I said to Gleno, 3 days of selling covered in 2.5 hours. I think we could continue the rally at least to the mid BB on the SPX.
I was thinking the same thing. 3 days of selling erased in 2.5 hours.
Like I said, $vix screaming buy.
Pulled all the chutes yesterday. Counter trend trading...bad idea. Daily and Weekly $VIX say buy, but trend and Congress is overwhelming them both.
Perspective...
Pull up a 20 year monthly chart on the spx, ndx, etc.
All that said, the daily $vix is screaming buy. Taking some lumps today. Unloaded my SSO at 82.70 for a loss. Might try again tomorrow if we retest the lows in the A.M.
Bigger pic is down. Monthly mid BB on the ndx is around 2900.
1659 target. Gonna sit on those SSO positions. Bought round 3 at 82.61. $VIX 2 hour and daily blown out the top of the upper BB.
Yep, 1600-1580 would be the next stop. The weekly chart shows some significant negative divergences which carries more weight in my decision to be in or out of the market.
Hmmm...interested to hear the libs justify this one.