S WAVE CHARTS

[snootmagruder]

IWM chart: Still looking for RUT to take out its Oct 2022 low from last year and this chart has a good fork on it pointing to 160 first week of Oct.
Then up to take out the August 2022 high and make the family happy again. Although IWM squeaked above the August 2022 high this past August, the RUT index did not.
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=IWM&p=30&st=2022-05-02&i=t5738181075c&a=434502557&m=o&r=1695316049433

[JK]

as always ES needed that 50% retracement before any downside can hapen - target now is 4290

[snootmagruder]

QQQ chart, My target is along that red diagonal with the green and blue forks aligning.
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=QQQ&p=30&st=2022-10-03&i=p42460679757&a=412962100&r=1692476855158&r=1692476977999&r=1692483400191&r=1692488442156

[JK]

I assume QQQ/COMPQ with similar setups?

[snootmagruder]

Hi JK,
Yes, Current SPX charts below
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=10&dy=10&i=t3825152415c&a=307755350&m=o&r=1692211539970
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2020-03-02&i=p94915608888&a=256257406&r=1692211704374&r=1692211767841

[JK]

Hi Snoot,
finally some downside seems to happen.
Do you still see SPX going down to ~4100 and then up above 4700 before the large decline starts?

Thanks!

[snootmagruder]

The Happy Family made gains on taking out the August high and is now down to WLSH (that's $EMW now on stockcharts) DJA, both just a tiny fraction from it, and RUT which hasn't taken out the Oct low yet. This setup is very typical for the family and if it plays out as typical we'll see a good drop before these take out the August high. I'm still hoping for RUT to take out the Oct low first.

[snootmagruder]

There's head and shoulder formations on NYA,DJA,WLSH,IWM,MID,SOX and even SPXEW, just SPX,COMPQ and NDX do not.
I have some doubt that the drop targets for these will be reached though. My SPXEW chart below shows a drop just to the neckline.
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPXEW&p=60&st=2021-11-01&i=p26284544839&a=416690378&r=1688894822711&r=1688895129824&r=1688895369711

[keepsinvesting]

these have been a tough short tbh. NQ however is more volatile

[JK]

ES target is 4340

[JK]

mainly US markets

[keepsinvesting]

:D

Do u trade other assets or just the US indices?

[keepsinvesting]

U r one early bird to give an early signal lol. 14700 works with my books to, but probably after this eom/EOQ shenanigans first

[JK]

NQ target now: ~14700

[keepsinvesting]

Today proved it a bit tough for being bearish, it actually stopped me out twice BE lmao, really thought it was gonna run, left the computer to come back to it as BE trade

[keepsinvesting]

I think a lower low is coming before july 4th, maybe they fakeout break above 15150 just to get smashed back down to 14720ish

[JK]

Yes, and IMO the pullback is not finished yet - watching NQ 15177

[keepsinvesting]

That looks tough lol, but in july? The most bullish month of year… hmmm a little hard to believe, lets see how end of month june closes

[snootmagruder]

The C will morph into a more complex I think. The chart to watch IMO is RUT.
I'm looking for RUT to take out the June 2022 low. (IWM below 160)
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=IWM&p=60&st=2021-11-01&i=p22209884227&a=1361692571&r=1687914599152&r=1687914700621

[keepsinvesting]

It almost tagged it,great call! The break today back above 14960/80 doesnt seem legit with it rejecting to even get to 15150.

[keepsinvesting]

Whats ur c leg target? That lower 4000 likely not gonna come yet anytime soon yet, they gotta break this trend hard. JK’s target reached 14850 on NQ futures

[snootmagruder]

https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&i=t6630359441c&a=390542054&r=1687892797222&r=1687893015104

[JK]

NQ traded the pullback and should now be ready for ~ 14850

[snootmagruder]

Hi JK, Yes, that's my chart target. The yellow down (reverse) fork looks really good where it's at now.
Edit: I added green A and B and red a,b and c labels. Red a x 1.618 = 11750 target for c

[JK]

So you expect COMPQ to hit ~11800 in 4 werks?

[snootmagruder]

COMPQ,
Price took out that TL3 in my previous SPX chart, so now COMPQ has the same and I expect it needs to be breached as well.
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24COMPQ&p=30&st=2022-07-01&i=t4572972225c&a=282143477&r=1686844077070

[snootmagruder]

SPX 30,
There's a TL3 (triple tag TL) shown, I'm thinking it will leave it until August to take that out.
The red oblong is my preferred target for 3 or 4 weeks out now.
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=8&dy=10&i=p98191908173&a=307755350&r=1686834085131&r=1686834162385&r=1686834405036

[keepsinvesting]

Resilient market, “feels” like alot of fomo going on, but only time will tell if this is all legit, breadth hasnt been too shabby with this rally

[snootmagruder]

TZA position 26.92 in afterhours

[snootmagruder]

Looks like we gap up above the August high and fulfill that obligation while at the same time show a negative divergence in RSI. This week is also triple witching and max pain is way below.

[keepsinvesting]

I think the market is very close to s turning point. Likely after fomc

[snootmagruder]

CPI on Tuesday. SPX was 3 points from taking out the August high today (so far) My ideal scenario is making the 4326 or more by Monday close and see a hot CPI come in Tuesday. Then the Fed day on Wed

[snootmagruder]

My thoughts on the market:
SPY took out last August high, but SPX didn't, when this happens SPX always follows through. I'm looking for a bit of a pull back Monday and then a new high later in the week with some negative divergence and SPX to take out the August high also.
Then down for a month below 390 then up for 6 weeks to another high before the big last drop.
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p81064549921&a=350704571&r=1685737637896&r=1685737925927

[jxyzobrien]

shorting this market
with fed adding liquidity behind the scènes
is really dangerous
since each day as Elliot would say is totally different then the previous one

the put call ratio was tame the last few days
and there was no real happy family selling
traders still want an old school bear market
the bear market is over.
the fed killed it.
do not fight the fed especially when they doin QE

[snootmagruder]

I've been sitting on a TZA position I just sold for a small gain to go with my last comment

[snootmagruder]

QQQ is so extended already it's a difficult chart, however I have this IWM chart that I think has one more rally from here before going down. The debt bill will probably pass and today's down reset the indicators for another high (I think)
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=IWM&p=30&st=2022-07-01&i=p09621257268&a=434502557&r=1685548743326&r=1685548831994

[JK]

Looks like we finally get some down - what is your take for the QQQs?
For NQ I see something like 14070 as a target.

[keepsinvesting]

Would love to see this play out by end of june me thinks.
Happy holidays

[snootmagruder]

I'm still clinging to a drop before taking out the August HFTOM highs. If my work is correct price needs to exceed the yellow down fork ML now at 390 in below chart. For the HFTOM, 4 of the 8 indices I include have taken out the August high and have a large spread among them with IWM being the lowest and still has not taken out the June of last year low.
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p81064549921&a=350704571&r=1685365729290&r=1685365883543

[keepsinvesting]

Lookin more like sell the news now after this liquidity pop finishes. U still have ur targets intact?
By the way, happy holidays

[keepsinvesting]

Cant fight it unfortunately lol. Maybe after debt ceiling deal or later year? Probably similar to august last year…

[JK]

Uuups

[JK]

NQ traded the pullback and the next target ist around 14140

[keepsinvesting]

U’ll probably get the IWM target by beginning june then, NQ and SPY likely off the table to be that low unless NO deal gets passed lol

[snootmagruder]

Hi RCKS, I saw that, I'm looking (hoping) for RUT to take out last June's low before heading up, All the others have taken out that low.
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=IWM&p=60&st=2021-11-01&i=p22209884227&a=1361692571&r=1684431591318

[RCKS]

snoot

NDX has joined the HFTOM

[jxyzobrien]

remember the trump china trading deal
market moved up like 4 times on rumor of a deal
when they want to sell it they will put out NO DEAL EVER rumor

[keepsinvesting]

Not trying to be negative but this divergence is so bad on NQ.. ES has to break n close over 4200

[keepsinvesting]

Something will give… NQ faking, dollar lieing, debt ceiling selloff on a bad deal?

[jxyzobrien]

breadth ticks weakening
nyse neg -1
nq +1