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Looks short term bullish to me. I think we have a slight retrace to 1650 - 1660 and then make a higher high...then it could be a traders market. Right now we're up against the upper monthly BB so I think upside is going to be limited.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXHILO&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p07581724362&a=309304699&listNum=1
Feeling a little cautious here. I would not be surprised to see a pullback to the 1650 area or the 50ma/mid BB.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44720863647&a=306484041&listNum=1
My guess is the $TNX is due to pull back to the 23.5 area.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p02542819065
$VIX - Daily oversold and correcting. Move to 15.25 - 16. Weekly still looks like it will go lower.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p52025019122&a=287788386
July 3rd repeating itself....? DMI still says we are in an uptrend.
Back in 83.33. Hourly oversold.
Traded out of the SSO position at 83.59. See the 7/3 price action. Just my 2 cents. 1670 still looks good. We're sitting right at the top of the monthly BB so upside my be temporarily limited
We're approaching OBDT on the 60 min. Nibbling on some SS0 at 83.39.
Daily $VIX is looking pretty oversold. Weekly has more room to move lower. $vix daily to 15 - 15.5 area.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p40890941355&a=287788386
Looking for a more on the $spx to 1670. 1663 would do.
I can't find a link to this news.
Anomaly. SPX is essentially unchanged and SSO is up .60%. I closed my RYDEX SPX longs as we are ST overbought, but more importantly, that anomaly really caught my eye.
I look to buy back, but we are really over extended. If we sell off today I will likely scale back in.
Well that was kind of my previous point. I appreciate all the effort he puts in, but it's another reason I don't get the whole elliot wave thing. At least not on a daily scale. I will not be critical and then not put in my two cents. I believe we will continue higher and test the 1687 old top. The monthly BB is going to constrain a move above 1700 at least until we hit August. Current monthly BB top is 1673.
I choose to ignore 1995-2000 as that was a bubble market and technical readings go out the window IMO. The chart should be self-explanatory.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p96660807405
How did you determine that? Volume?
G, I believe we will consolidate here and then go higher. 60 min indicator needs to reset. I see the daily going up still, but we are very overbought on the 60 min. Admitttly these "off the bottom" moves can ignore the 60 min longer than usual as I really thought we were topping in the short term on Tuesday, but the FED seem through a wrench in my plans.
Weekly chart is pointing north IMO.
Monthly gives some cause for concern, but nothing that says we can't get to 1750?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51030914751
Too compelling not to sell into the open. I will look to buy back tomorrow or late day if we really pull back.
We should open right around 1668. Nice call.
No offense meant. Exactly why I don't use pivots. 5 min IMO is good for trading within a trend, but if the assumed trend is incorrect, then the pivots move you out of a good position. I have sold long positions in this last rally so I could buy them back at a lower price and I have ended buying most of them back at higher prices.
$NASI and $NYMO trumps Ben and reality.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p16151260586&listNum=4&a=142121354
Thanks Ben. :) I will be the happy recipient of Ben's words. I honestly thought we would consolidate tomorrow and launch higher on Friday so I am lighter on my longs than I wished.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=120&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p56221774810
Once again, investing beats trading.
Thanks.
So this is news to anyone?
Any idea what's going on in after hours?? SSO up 1% in AH, but can't find any news.
OK, Ben speaking.
Sold small Rydex short from yesterday's close and flipped it back to long. Keeping the rest in cash, but looking to add longs back on a pullback...if it ever comes. 60 min overbought...as it was yesterday. Sold some 401K longs yesterday, but holding the remainder long.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p64509708161
Daily $VIX could use a breather IMO, but only because of how deeply the RSI is oversold.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p52025019122&a=287788386
OK, but that's 3 days from now. No offense, but if a pullback occurs from 30 points higher, we missed the bus. The phase one may simply be a sideways consolidation. That's my thinking FWIW.
Of course, we could both be wrong and the locomotive just keeps gathering speed.
Bought back RYDEX funds at the close and the plan will be sell again at the AM price. 1650 target hit. Still more upside, but we have double bottomed on my ADX 60 min indicator, so I will buy back on a pullback.
Looks like the NDX has already started it's move down.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p52025019122&a=287788386
Concur. Trimmed Rydex longs and the A.M. price. Best case we consolidate here. The hourly is pretty overbought. Bigger trend remains up. We may not see a drop until late day or until tomorrow IMO.
What are your projections. I bought back the longs I sold on Wednesday including RYDEX funds. We look like will continue higher IMO. 1650 is my initial target.
$TNX up 7% today. I can see another day up, but that should mark the top. DI- on the ADX is reading 10. That's the lowest number in the last 5 years plus. We hit 11 on 1/31/2011 and that marked the intermediate top for rates.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p39187081519
Anyone have any idea what's going on in European markets?? They just sold off rather hard in the last 30 min.
What's going on in Europe??? Big sell off in the last 30 min.
OK, so history vs. a forecast.
I thought the pre-holiday rally would have started yesterday, but better late than never.
The headline was the jobs number was better than expected and thus there is worry fed stimulus will end sooner than later. See one of my previous posts from today.
Summation charts say the indexes should be going higher. The MACD still has not crossed over however and the positive D on the stochastic is not playing out as expected. ?? At least the $NDX is green...for now.
OK Don, I will play your game, it's an expansion. That said, that may not immediately translate into stock market gains if monetary stimulus is in part responsible for the market being at the levels it is today.
The stock market peaked in 1966 and then consolidated for 17 years until it broke out in 1983. If 2000 was the initial peak, then 17 years from now is when...oldster?
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1900.html
OK, I will play your game, it's an expansion. That said, that may not immediately translate into stock market gains if monetary stimulus is in part responsible for the market being at the levels it is today.
The stock market peaked in 1966 and then consolidated for 17 years until it broke out in 1983. If 2000 was the initial peak, then 17 years from now is when...oldster?
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1900.html
BREAKING NEWS
ADP Says Companies in U.S. Added 188,000 in June
U.S. Stock Futures Retreat as ADP Jobs Data Tops Estimate
By Michael P. Regan - Jul 3, 2013 7:19 AM CT
U.S. stock-index futures remained lower after a private report showed companies added more jobs than economists forecast last month, fueling concern the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce monetary stimulus.
Sheesh, gap resistance still holding.
Daily is not technically OBDT. Still holding SSO positions from this AM, but not adding any more.
We will probably rally through the 3rd or 5th on light volume, then pullback some. I am not disagreeing with what you say, but just looking at technicals. I don't think Obama is going to escape unscathed. He has 3.5 years left and the stuff is going to hit the fan at some point during that time.
Weekly BB is at 1650 right now.