Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Just bought some SDS hedge. Should have gone with QID. 1677-78 still the target for the low IMO.
We're due a consolidation here.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=120&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p48655986908&a=287654489&listNum=1
It's a guess either way. Good company, but overvalued. There is so much focus on the phone business and yet they still make great computers. That said, both of those businesses are mature. The PC market will continue to grow as will the phone business, but not at the pace of past years.
SPX outperforming the NDX today...a rare thing.
Not a good sign when we rallying into the 10:45 est time, but bigger picture looks like a long to me.
1677-78 should act as suppoort. Keeping longs add gradually adding here. Let's see if we get the 10:30-10:45 dip.
We're going to blow out the top of the hourly BB. I sold my SSO positions in the premarket and will look to buy them back after the initial spasm at the open. Will continue holding RYDEX longs and may add if we give back part of this gain at the AM price. Agree on the gap target of 1685 which should coincide with the top of the daily BB.
Hit the mid BB on the daily and stopped. IMO, consolidation for a few days and then up. The weekly is now oversold in an up trend.
Good humor!
Yep. Don't ignore the gap on the $VIX either. Bigger pic stuff looks oversold.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p52025019122&a=287788386
Might stall at the mid BB, but technically speaking, we are oversold.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43502525753&a=288571369&listNum=1
No, new homes help the economy more than existing home sales in the sense that people were recently employed to build those homes and new appliances were bought as well. At least where I live, anyone buying an existing home is throwing a min of 10-15K into them in the first year. I am sure that number is less on average, but the point is people generally want to update or put there personal touches on the home they just bought. That could be landscaping, appliances or paint and carpet/hardwood floors.
That's my estimate too FWIW. We also have a gap at 1656-1657 and the mid BB lies in that are too. That should be a critical juncture.
Good Morning. I bought some RYDEX funds at the close Thurday and sold them at the AM price today. I will likely buy them back at the close and possible add. Looks like a sustained move up is possible. Maybe playing it too fine here...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99851329995&a=288571369
?
Sold my SSO positions well off the highs and bought 1/2 of them back at 80.16 and 80.05. Looking for the holiday rampo, but I guess what happens in Syria really does matter.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1129796,1&cmd=show[s288571369],iday[false]&disp=G
Let's see if we sell off into 9:45 cst. I lightened some longs looking to reaccumulate.
Daily hit oversold yesterday. Combine that with the labor day holiday...and pomo....should be up today and tomorrow.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p52025019122&a=287788386
Daily is pretty oversold and has a positive D on price vs. 5,1 stochastic. I missed yesterday, but started longs this morning. Watching for a move to the daily mid BB.
You're in a unique market. I am in a great market, but can't compare to that. I am up 15-18% in the last 18 months, but only up 20% - 22% off the bottom. I don't expect that to hold. It's simply supply and demand. Higher rates will reduce demand as affordability is reduced via the higher rates. The only hope is that guidelines relax...slightly.
1632 gap on the SPX. Got the 6 point push up I expected. Looking for another spike down in the market next and that could set up another oversold bounce. Not the time to be "investing". If we break below 1640, I would look for the 1632 to 1630 area.
GDL, you home value more than doubled in value in the last 5 years? Now we know you are full of BS.
Well, something worked on that rule of 3.
1635 is the level of the lower BB. Bought some SSO at 80.34 for a daytrade, but just playing the initial bounce. Selling off on Syria, nice excuse. Out on the SSO trade at 80.58. Casino is now closed. See the 30 min price action on 8/15. We should see a 6-7 point move up off the lows and then...
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/McSumNASD.html
1630 - 1636 for the initial bounce IMO. Really oversold on your chart. I am working remotely today so no chart access except the ones in old posts. Summation index oscillator for the NDX is way oversold.
Still holding 100 SSO at 80.99 and 100 at 81.46. Woulda, coulda, shoulda sold at 82.11, but let's see what happens tomorrow.
For your amusement.
POKERSAM Member Profile POKERSAM
Thursday, November 15, 2012 2:24:35 PM
Re: None
Post # of 34738
Here is my best BIG BEAR picture. He loves bull steaks. He will eat a lot of them as we work our way down to near 600. We are in a 40 point bounce now and will get 100 pointer near 1250 or so. There will be other bounces on the way down but they will all be bounces in a BIG BEAR market.
Mark this post so I can eat some crow if I am wrong. Of course I expect some crow eating by some if I am right.
Don't you just love it.
He NAILED the bottom!
nibbling on sso at 80.99 for a daytrade. We're due a bounce on the 60 min, the daily is still outside the lower bb. That said, jack be nimble, because the weekly down move looks to be for real.
Good stuff, let's get that info in front of some adults who might be able to take advantage of it.
You are right about yields being below the historical norm. And, taken just by itself without consideration for the future, keeping the bond buying program in place would help the economy in the short run.
With that said, their will be a consequence down the road to all those bonds they hold and the more they hold/accumulate, the worse the future consequences will be. There is no free lunch.
I don't think we are going to have a thriving economy again until we try to rebuild our manufacturing base and provide more liveable wage jobs. JMHO.
Gosh, you are putting a lot of words into my mouth.
Here's an email I just received from one of my lenders.
I am trying to post an image, just got an email from a lender stating rates are going up. Why?
"Weak trading levels continue to plague the MBS market, causing rates to move higher"
I don't disagree the economy is not as bad as it was, but I don't agree that's why rates are higher lately. I also agree it helped the economy. I never said it was a bad thing, you put those words in my mouth.
What I am saying is that rates were artificially depressed by the FED's action and the resulting rise in rates has little to do with the economy getting better and is primarily doe to the threat of reduced demand for the 10 year instrument.
Not the $TNX is currently outside the monthly BB. It will pullback within the BB either this month or next.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=M&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99096602009&a=288272662&listNum=1
The initial valley in the 10 year yield was in July of 2012. The FED did not signal anything then. I think the last 4 months however can be qualified as dumping.
Also, the tail does not wag the dog. Where do you think the 10 year yield would have been without the FED's intervention? Probably at current levels or slightly higher. What's going to happen when they try to sell those bonds some day? And, at a loss I might add.
I know you are on the real estate side of things and not originating loans. Those rates stink, unless the loans are under 150K.
Funny thing is I grew up in the "village" Hillary's book is about. I don't know of may villages with a population of 35K. It was more like 30K back in the day, but still sizeable. Another democratic tall tale.
He isn't allowing 10 year yield to rise, he and the FED have been artificially depressing the 10 year yield with their bond buying program. With the signal that that artificial demand will either taper off or go away the free ride is over. Investors are dumping 10 year bonds as a result and thus....bond yields are rising.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p54668389618
30 min approaching OBDT.
We're pretty oversold on the 30. The 60 min is bottoming. Should get some ST bounce by day's end. The McClellan Osc is waaay oversold.
The daily SPX is sitting outside the lower BB as well. Using the 5,1 stochastic and the daily MACD, we're now oversold in an uptrend.
We will eventually end up lower here IMO in the next 30 days.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p01767424529&a=288571369&listNum=1
G, if I could circle a place on your chart and put you are here, I would say mid Oct 2012 or last Oct 2013.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p90494302047&a=288571369
Just sold second SSO position.
Looks like we are headed higher. This pull back may be nothing more than a consolidation. I agree with all you say, but you have to throw logic out the window and invest with the charts.
$VIX 2 hour has been rolling over. The last 3 days I have bought the A.M. dips as I think this is a consolidation move and not going to turn in to a sell off. Chop, chop, chop.
I think we are going to move higher. 1697-1700 to start. Monthly chart still not ready to roll over. 1704 marks the upper BB on the monthly.
I mostly use Mozilla. Love it.