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If sabu proves anything close to the P50 NSAI amount then what is the 77% of the concession really worth now? Of course they never released any numbers on the entire 3d data except for the two wells which would be interesting to use as a yardstick for valuations. If sabu hits big then forget the temporary market fluctuations (especially europe), what would be a fair market share price? I just don't think we will see anything close to full value before they get bought out though.
Typically, I use round numbers for the P50 amounts which for the 2 wells are 250m for the first well and 400m for the second or 650m combined. With a little luck, something closer to the P90 numbers could be found giving us 1billion+.
Unfortunately, the actual PR will probably only give net feet of pay from each zone or a combined amount for all zones and the type or quality of oil found. They aren't doing flow testing but they can obtain a lot of information from todays logging and sensors.
Not being an oil man myself and for the public at large, I hope they are at least clear enough to say whether the well is commercial up front - hopefully in the headline.
Personally, I think our odds of hitting oil with all the seismic, AVO analysis and oils seeps is about 90%, The real question is it in sufficient quality and quantitiy to be commercial. I guess the determination of being commercial for Sabu will also depend on a summation of the 4? pay zones for the first well - P50 of 258m. If both wells hit we are looking 600m+ for the P50 estimate meaning it could also be greater than a 1 billion on the high side. I'm sure all announced estimates will be very conservative in nature.
See Sep 7 transcrfipt:
At the time of our last call in June, we pretty well-defined the first well, Sabu-1, which is a faulted anticline with prospective horizons throughout the upper cretaceous section. The water depth is 700 meters. The planned total depth is 3,600 meters, so the depth of the well below mud line will be about 2,900 meters, or slightly less than 10,000 feet. The P-50 recoverable sources which represent the mid-range estimate from the Netherland Sewell report is 258 million barrels of oil.At the time of our last call, we were still finalizing the exact location for the second well, the Baraka No. 1. But we've now completed the plans
for the well.
Baraka No. 1 is also a faulted anticline with prospective horizons in the mid-cretaceous or Albian formation. In addition, it will also test the shallower Cenomanian horizon in the stratigraphic trapping position. This well is slightly higher risk but it's also higher reward with a P-50 recoverable resource estimate of 411 million barrels of oil. It will also be a slightly more challenging well. It will be drilled in 1,300 meters of water; the initial drill depth is a total of 3,900 meters, but we do have the potential in the well, based on what we find, to deepen it to 4,400
meters.
I would not be surprised to see us start heading to the drill site and setting up to drill very very soon after October 1st since the JE would want to be "on the clock" for their daily rate as soon as possible.
This week and next may be the last time to load up with sub $5 shares. After options expiration next friday I think the pre-drilling runup will start quickly and run right into October. The uncertainty in europe and fears of recession may give someone a real gift this week but unfortunately I have no dry powder left. I am anxiosly waiting for next month and drilling to start after several years of owning this stock. This company and its management has never been better and I think the proof will be when not one but several of those plays being drilled hit oil.
Should make for a nice Christmas.
The real price of oil
The real price of oil is still over $100 a barrel.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/11228636/1/the-real-price-of-oil.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
Since RL already stated that we won't be doing any flow testing on the wells being drilled - drill cap and move on. My guess is about 30-45 days after each well starts. I believe it takes around 30 days to drill the well and I would give them 1-2 weeks to prepare the PR. If they spud mid-October you are looking at the end of November for the first well and hopefully by Christmas for the second well.
Of course like it or not with the possibility of 1.2Billion barrels being discovered the rumors will fly with any sign of oil on that drill bit.
May have to revise my estimate of averaging .10 a day or .50 a week till drilling. Speculation alone may send this to $10+ by drilling time.
I was speculating at .50 a week till October 1st (7 weeks) we would be at $8+ and have purchased additional shares above my core holdings to sell into drilling with this idea in mind. Almost 100% profit at these levels if it pans out with minimal risk since I plan to sell the extra shares before actual drilling.
Yep, that personal butt kicking for not buying more at these levels will be all over this board by this time next month. I can see this stock averaging trading up .10+ per day until the actual spud date. That would put us at $8+ by the time the drilling starts.
Searching for more dry powder now to atleast buy a few speculative shares to sell into drilling if I can't afford to hold them as part of my core postion.
While the market crash has been gut wrenching for all our portfolios I think we are going to kick our own butts this fall if we don't buy a few shares at these depressed prices. Of course their are bargains everywhere in this market IMO but its hard to find one that could actually rise dramatically in just a few months as drilling starts with or without the overall markets help.
Unfortunately I have very little powder left but will ride out the shares I have till at least next summer as this story unfolds.
Again, it may all be for nothing. Wouldn't be surprised that somehow the shorts have covered the majority of their 18mil+ shares and we slowly start trading normally as we approach drilling in a few months. Will be interesting to see number of shares short over the next few weeks.
While normally I discount any suggestions of a buyout or other behind the scenes deals, I don't see a rational exit strategy for the shorts with drilling in just a few months. Its hard to think anyone with $80+million invested as stupid or careless so I have to think either they know something we don't or don't really plan to cover the 20mil shares short but just hold down the share price for another entity. Actually its amazing that they had to short 20mil shares to drive the price to almost $3 and then could only hold it to $4.50. Covering 20mil shares in the market would put us $10+ overnight which is probably where we would be now if the market wasn't a rigged game. Shorting should only be for investors with a position to hedge - not a stock to borrow and create what I think is a form of legal naked shorting.
I was guessing about the same time frame of mid to late July being the earliest the drill ship could be on station. That's why my dream date for drilling is 1 August but I think the reality is that 1 September is probably the earliest we could have everything ready and on station.
Anyway, at best I'm hoping for a 2-4 weeks upgrade in the schedule.
That still begs the question "Who is the fool that bought those puts expecting to make money only if the price stays below $4?"
I would have to guess that someone was hedging an existing position or very down on HDY's potential.
Just as you said, the seller keeps the premium anyway but only has to buy the shares if it stays below $4.
Let's not forget that all the estimates from NSAI are CONSERVATIVE estimates. Their reputation is on the line that we find a minimum of the resources that they list for each prospect. 6 BILLION unrisked and 750MILLION risked - I can live with that for now
Don't forget thats 15 miliion shares but $30 million. I also think the after hours was a forced buyin which probably means a short got killed. If they are dum enough to short without even considering the fundamentals and the many positive things going on with HDY, they desrve what they get.
If they were smart, they wouldn't sell till $10-20. Unfortunately, I expect them to sell atleast a small percentage of their holdings all the way up from $3-5 and so forth till the lockup is over.
More News!!! It gets better and better.
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060921:MTFH17113_2...
CONAKRY, Sept 21 (Reuters) - A new deal between Guinea and Texas-based oil firm Hyperdynamics Corp (HDY.A: Quote, Profile, Research) could open the West African country's offshore to more oil prospectors, government and company officials said on Thursday.
Hyperdynamics said this week it had completed negotiations for a new production-sharing agreement with the Conakry government, allowing it to resume preparations for test drilling in Guinea's offshore area, one of the biggest oil exploration concessions ever granted in Africa.
Guinea, the world's biggest exporter of bauxite which is used to make aluminium, has no oil production but is hoping like many countries in West Africa to cash in on high oil prices and a global drive to discover alternatives to Middle Eastern oil supplies.
No precise details of the production sharing portion of the agreement have yet been published, but government and company officials said the new deal included a provision for third-party operators to be brought into the concession area.
"At the start, Hyperdynamics wanted all the Guinean offshore area, which is not possible. We have therefore decided on a division to allow other companies to come and invest in the country," said Cece Noramou, a senior official at the mines ministry, which has handled the negotiations.
"At present, if the convention is signed, Hyperdynamics will itself finance prospecting at its own risk and peril, until the first wells start to pump. From then on, production will be shared between us, according to modalities which I can not reveal for the moment," Noramou added.
A source close to the mines ministry said around eight other companies had showed in interest in Guinea's oil sector.
AWAITING PRESIDENTIAL SIGNATURE
Noramou said the deal, which is awaiting President Lansana Conte's signature, kept one third of the offshore area to Hyperdynamics, allowing the government to bring in other partners to the other two thirds.
But a source close to Hyperdynamics in the capital Conakry told Reuters the U.S. company would still retain complete control over 30,000 sq. km of the overall 64,000 sq. km (25,000 sq. mile) concession.
Hyperdynamics was granted the concession under a 2002 agreement which will be replaced by the new deal following tensions with the government which the U.S. company has blamed on officials no longer working for the state.
Mike Watts, a senior official with Hyperdynamics, told Reuters from its Sugar Land, Texas headquarters that the company was resuming preparations for test drilling while it awaited final signature of the new agreement.
"We're starting to gear up again. We've been kind of staying still for a year ... They are the ones who requested the new agreement and we've done all we can do. We're going to put our focus back on exploration," he said.
He said the precise starting time of test drilling would depend on availability of rigs and other drilling equipment.
Hyperdynamics shares were down 5.48 percent at $2.07 by 1706 GMT on Thursday.
(Additional reporting by Alistair Thomson in Dakar)
PSA about to be signed!!!!! Buckle up and hold on for the next few months - we are about to have liftoff!!!!!
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060919/20060919005228.html?.v=1
Hyperdynamics Reports Negotiations Completed for New Contract with Guinea
Tuesday September 19, 9:45 am ET
Major Progress Realized Working Through Guinea's Democratic Process
HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sept. 19, 2006--Hyperdynamics Corp. (AMEX:HDY - News) announced today that the company has completed negotiations for a new production sharing agreement and has realized major progress working through the democratic process in Guinea.
ADVERTISEMENT
Recently, the new Minister of the Mines and Geology Dr. Ousmane Sylla, in a meeting with the company's Executive Vice President Harry Briers, agreed that negotiations for a new 2006 production sharing contract were completed. Sylla expressed full support of the new agreement and stated that he is ready to sign it. Simultaneously, Hyperdynamics' executives have held key meetings with many of the ministers of the president's cabinet, as well as the President of the National Assembly Elhadj Aboubacar Sompare. In a filmed meeting, Sompare gave his full support for the newly negotiated PSA, and expressed an anxious willingness to move it quickly through the National Assembly affirmation process that would result in legislation endorsing the new PSA.
When asked to comment, Kent Watts, CEO, said, "While we had expected to announce the signing of a new contract by now, we indeed have realized major progress. With the help of U.S. Ambassador Jackson McDonald and our talented professional team, the support of the many influential ministers, and the support of the National Assembly, I can see no other viable democratic outcome than a fully executed agreement."
I see this as a any day now! Comments???????????
See co. blog by IR person Chris
http://hyperdynamics.blogspot.com/
Keeping my fingers crossed - next couple of weeks could be very interesting. I can't imagine Conte letting Parliament end their session without finalizing HDY's PSA and drilling permits.
I read the latest filing and guessed that the recent weakness was a result of the arbitration against CRC/Medco for not acquiring a tanker and restarting production. I was really surprised to see the upside volume and strength yesterday. Maybe they finally secured a tanker and production will restart soon which would resolve the lawsuit as well.
http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001119949&owner=include
Wrote this one off a couple of years ago. Was planning to sell some/all of my position just for the tax write off and to cover some gains this year. Maybe I'll hang on for a few months just to see what happens. Sounds like the ongoing lawsuit over the tanker still their biggest issue.
Looking for an Athlon 64 or Turion laptop with a 17" display.
Any suggestions???
Can you say .24?
FORTUNE OIL & GAS INC - : FOGC
Time & Sales most recent next page
Rec. Time Action Price Volume
1:27:00 PM Trade 0.24 27000
1:26:38 PM Trade 0.21 5000
1:26:32 PM Trade 0.2 5000
1:13:32 PM Trade 0.205 15000
1:12:32 PM Trade 0.2 15000
1:12:14 PM Trade 0.21 1500
1:05:14 PM Trade 0.19 2500
1:02:34 PM Trade 0.23 750
12:50:36 PM Trade 0.23 4300
12:50:32 PM Trade 0.2 1500
12:38:00 PM Trade 0.2 5000
12:30:52 PM Trade 0.19 7000
12:30:50 PM Trade 0.19 2500
12:30:46 PM Trade 0.22 5000
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1:47:20 PM EST - Wednesday, February 2, 2005 - data is delayed 15 minut
Not sure it they are prestonia cores but we never actually validated any throttling. We purely based our decision to not use HT on servers with high utilization on the various forums that we could read. Personally, it makes common sense to me that the HT is no longer an advantage as the cpu utilization becomes very high and the processes are stalled for enough resources to run the multiple threads. The problem is what is that magic number for average cpu utilization to make the decision to turn it on or off - with off being the safe decision.
Currently we are looking to build two or three in house AMD opteron servers using one of the recently released Tyan motherboards with on board U320 SCSI. Haven't finalized on a motherboard yet. It may sound funny but hardware has become so cheap in our overall package that we will probably build two production servers and a third spare parts server with the same motherboard/case but with minimal memory and hard drives. We are also waiting to see the new HP servers announced for comparison.
We are not a 24hr shop but having a spare server gives me a lot of options when a hardware failure occurs. We also use Powerquest V2i/Symantec Livestate to create images for backups which are easy to restore or bring up a secondary server.
Several years ago we did extensive research on the web and Microsoft's own site to determine if we should turn on HT on our IBM X235 dual Xeon servers. They are primarily used as SQL 2000 servers. The best answer we could find was - it depends.
It primarily depends on whether the application can make use of the multiple threads. For SQL 2000, we found that various queries and reports ran faster on our lightly loaded servers so we left it turned on. We also decided that we would turn it off on any heavily loaded servers since we found many examples and forums describing a fall off in performance as average cpu utilization became high.
Of course no one is happy with the 2.5 years of total silence or the share price dropping to single digits. Just glad to finally see them get their act together with oil north of $40. Time will tell if my averaged down shares were a complete gamble or a total loss.
There are still many of us lurking like myself but not willing to engage dhuey in another one of his mindless games.
Thanks, I saw this PDF previously but missed the caption that said the TDP of 103W was for the entire family of EM64T 800Mhz FSB. I guess they just don't want to disclose the TDP for the individual processors.
Company I work for is primarily an "IBM" only shop. We are looking to buy several servers and while we don't need 64b capabilities now the perception is why limit our future options. Interesting that even non techie types perceive 64 bit as the way to go now.
We considered the Opteron model 325/326 1U rack mounts that IBM has but they want more capacity for internal drives. They are now looking at the IBM x-series model 236 with a duaL CPU which uses the Xeon EM64T with the 800Mhz FSB and DDR2 memory (I believe 90nm cpu's). They are also looking at the two rack mount Opteron models from HP (dual and 4 way)as well even though they really want tower servers for this application.(They primarily only buy from first tier vendors)
Believe it or not they actually expressed a concern about the heat dissipation from the new EM64T cpus from Intel. I can't find a chart anywhere to show the "TDP" of the 2.8, 3, 3.2, 3.4 and 3.6 EM64T cpus. Depending on the location this may actually play a part in their decision since these servers won't be heavily loaded initially.
Reviewing a couple e-servers from IBM in the x-series model 236 with EM64T dual processors. Probably purchase a couple next month. My question is TDP differences for the 800Mhz FSB 2.8, 3, 3.2, 3.4, and 3.6G processors. Can't find a current chart showing the TDP for these new 64bit processors.
Any help would be appreciated.
For now, the performance of a new HP DL585 server would be great. But we are also looking at ways to use greater than the standard 2G of memory for our SQL 2000 database. Looking to buy either windows 2003 server or advanced 2000 server software and use the /3GB switch with 4G of memory installed in the server initially. Gives SQL a slight boost with 3G of memory to cache vice 2G. Now this is a common piece of software just begging for 4-8G of memory. I believe MS next version Yukon? will support 64bit SQL.
Pete,
Thanks for the comments regarding the dual amd server. I think we will go ahead and purchase a rack mount system and just place it on a shelf for the time being. That way we have a lot more options available and its ready to be mounted in a rack in the future. I also like your idea of possibly buying even a 4-way and just putting two cpu in it for now which also comes with plenty of drive bays.
rlweitz,
Actually we are considering doing just that since all the models we looked at and liked were rack based. I really don't see any standard towers available anyway.
sgolds,
Sorry for the confusion. We don't have a rack mount system so this server will literally sit in a large closet by itself with a separate air conditioner. Looking for a stand alone tower.
Still looking for a 1-2 tier vendor for a dual opteron 5U tower server using U320 hard drives. Preferably 4-6 drive bays with dual controller. I looked on HP's site but didn't see anything. Buying 1-2 months.
Heres your competition: IBM dual 2.8G Xeon 5U? tower with 9 drive bays, dual U320 controller, redundant power supply and fans, Cost was about over $3,500 before memory and hard drives. Total cost before OS/software slightly over $6,500.
(With 4 U320 15K 70G HD and 4G memory)
New departmental server to host SQL 2000 for 30-60 users.
(Boss is fanatic for IBM but would consider HP and possibly even Sun servers)
So far, the only options I see is to build it myself which the boss doesn't care for.
I thought HP had released a 5U/tower server? Looking for dual cpu tower server with U320 (preferably dual controller) and 4-6 drive bays. Boss/owner prefers 1-2nd tier vendors. Basically a good departmental server with room for future growth.
Boss loves IBM but all they have are blades.
Thanks Retro. Thought you had had it with this pinkie and moved on. Couldn't blame anyone with all the dissapointments over the last few years.
Best to You and Yours!!
Chris
Nothing officially from company that I can see but the volume sure looks interesting. Previously, we have had several days in which it appeared that someone wanted x number of shares and drove up the bid/ask that day until they were filled. The next day the bid usually falls back to around .09 and our usual volume of near zero.