Personally, I think our odds of hitting oil with all the seismic, AVO analysis and oils seeps is about 90%, The real question is it in sufficient quality and quantitiy to be commercial. I guess the determination of being commercial for Sabu will also depend on a summation of the 4? pay zones for the first well - P50 of 258m. If both wells hit we are looking 600m+ for the P50 estimate meaning it could also be greater than a 1 billion on the high side. I'm sure all announced estimates will be very conservative in nature.
See Sep 7 transcrfipt:
At the time of our last call in June, we pretty well-defined the first well, Sabu-1, which is a faulted anticline with prospective horizons throughout the upper cretaceous section. The water depth is 700 meters. The planned total depth is 3,600 meters, so the depth of the well below mud line will be about 2,900 meters, or slightly less than 10,000 feet. The P-50 recoverable sources which represent the mid-range estimate from the Netherland Sewell report is 258 million barrels of oil.At the time of our last call, we were still finalizing the exact location for the second well, the Baraka No. 1. But we've now completed the plans
for the well.
Baraka No. 1 is also a faulted anticline with prospective horizons in the mid-cretaceous or Albian formation. In addition, it will also test the shallower Cenomanian horizon in the stratigraphic trapping position. This well is slightly higher risk but it's also higher reward with a P-50 recoverable resource estimate of 411 million barrels of oil. It will also be a slightly more challenging well. It will be drilled in 1,300 meters of water; the initial drill depth is a total of 3,900 meters, but we do have the potential in the well, based on what we find, to deepen it to 4,400
meters.
