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Nice to hear from you Luna. I was also fortunate enough to buy NVAX in December 2019. What a ride from 4 and sold at 150. It would be great if we eventually see 100 for an Auph buyout. Not probable but you never know. The biotech sector is a great place to be now. So many great companies making a lot of investors multi millionaires. Thanks for your terrific posts.
A message from vidpok: “ After 4 years our faith in the company has been vindicated. After a difficult 2020 we all have a lot to look forward to in 2021. I continue to read all the messages on this and other boards and will do so until the buyout. For those who are interested I am investing in ITRM now which I think could be a 5x winner or more after approval of their drug from its current level. Denner will see to it. Good luck to all the old timers from Aria. Auph has been a long ride but nothing worthwhile comes easily. Thanks for all the great posts that kept us focused during this tough year. Hope to see some of you on the ITRM board and will post again soon.”
A lot of exhausted retailers are throwing in the towel today. I can’t imagine giving up at this late point with no news that would support a negative outcome. One more week and we will know where we stand. If we get approval and a 2037 patent then the company will do well and the sp will act accordingly. Today is a great buying opportunity for those who understand the process.
I have estimated peak revenues of oral sulopenem at 500 million. Do you agree with that figure?
I believe that a buyout for 1.5 billion will occur within 2 years. By that time there will be 100 million shares yielding 15/share. That assumes a buyout of 3x annual revenues of 500 million which is a conservative valuation. By that time I hope to have 200k shares, about twice what I have now. After taxes about 2,400,000 which will help during retirement. Denner will get the buyout done just as he did for those of us who had Ariad. Good luck all longs
Zzaatt, While you are waiting for Auph to hit, check out ITRM which our boy Denner recently took a huge position in. In the meantime, I’m expecting good news for Auph with approval and a label supporting 2037. As always, I appreciate your responses to our resident clown. Keep up the good work!
Have been in for a month because of Denner . Expecting buyout in a year or two for about a billion which is only 2x expected revenues. 20x current mc seems likely IMO, Maybe higher. Hoping to buy more share before this starts to run hard. Good luck longs
If I had concerns about this going to zero upon a rejection by the FDA I sure wouldn’t be here now unless I was shorting the stock. I recall someone saying Ariad would go to two and look how that worked out. Personally I see a bump to 16 after an approval followed by a slow rise leading up to buyout between 30-40.
I just started a large position today also because of Denner who saved our asses in Ariad as I am sure you remember. Anyone here have any idea on the potential revenue if this antibiotic reaches the market? Hoping 2021 is going to be good for ITRM and AUPH!!
Anyone recall if there was a significant downturn just before the Ariad buyout?
4 years of time will be well worth it if we get approved and subsequently acquired for 35-50. Ariad took a lot longer with much more aggravation before it hit. Any ideas for the next one ( under 5)?
Back to 21 upon approval? Or more mid teens until buyout?
Just to review, from the conference call: Benlysta is no competition, pricing for Voc may be at the high end of expectations, the label should support IP 2037, the company may be acquired but not given away, expect partnerships for non US sales. I expect a 4-6 billion buyout in 2021 which is 30-45. That’s worth the daily bs manipulation which I expect to continue until and maybe beyond approval. I don’t think we see single digits once we are approved but that’s a possibility before approval. I am in this for the buyout and wouldn’t consider selling under 30 which isn’t likely to happen without a buyout. Auph is a great buy now with a minimal amount of risk. Don’t be discouraged by the resident jerk who lives to add angst on every downturn. He was wrong on Ariad and will be wrong here as well, a total loser.
Does anyone recall what was mentioned about IP2037 in the conference call? Everything else sounded good, I expect approval in January and buyout in 2021.
After years of a smooth ride we have finally hit some turbulence. Maybe tomorrow we will be acquired, you never know.
Anyone else considering buying more before the approval date? At this point it is becoming a very compelling buy.
Hope you’re right Jess. I don’t want a marathon here like Ariad but I don’t want it sold for less than it’s worth. I’d be happy at 35-40 but ecstatic at 45-50.
I think that report is irrelevant at this point. Everything now depends on the approval. We will continue to go sideways albeit slightly lower after DES until the FDA makes their decision. I can’t think of a single reason why Voc wouldn’t be approved but you never know.
I would really be shocked, Ganz, if we get an offer before approval. We are so close to approval now that if it was going to happen it would have by now. More often than not the big pharmas would rather pay up for an approved product than risk a rejection. Shouldn’t take long after approval before we know imo. Biggest risk now is the effect on biotechs if the Senate goes blue but I don’t see that happening.
We would all like a higher price but the reality is that a buyout will be based on the anticipated future revenue a company can expect and the period of time in which to realize that revenue. I understand that peak revenue could be around 2 billion and we might be protected until 2037. If we can get between 2-3x that amount for a buyout after approval I would think most of us would prefer that rather than waiting an indeterminate amount of time with no assurance about how the stock might act. I suspect we get a bounce upon approval but as far as a substantial gain I think we won’t see it without a buyout. I am convinced that management will try to get the company sold as soon as a decent offer is forthcoming after approval.
I think approval will happen in January and buyout in ‘21 for 35-40. I have 90 percent confidence in approval, 70 percent confidence in buyout in ‘21. Most of us invested for LN but Voclosporin has added value for other indications. After DES management is under pressure to sell quickly. Just awaiting approval and 2037 patent.
Cutting off Vos will save a lot of money and delay or prevent the need for another dilution. Vos was always going to have to be partnered which would have complicated a buyout. Maybe we will lose a couple of bucks when the buyout happens but it will happen a lot faster. Time is money and the trade off will be worth it.
Auph is getting boring. I want a 40 dollar buyout this year, not next. Even our resident jerk has little to offer these days as far as comic relief. It’s time to move on, get it approved and get the company sold.
The “bad pick” Ariad resulted in a seven figure profit for those of us who didn’t sell on the Ponatinib crash which was significntly worse than losing DES. The smart money is buying these cheap shares now in anticipation of good news fairly soon. The company can now focus its resources and cash on commercializing Voc and negotiating a good buyout without having to be concerned about having to raise additional funds as would have been necessary if the DES program moved forward. I look forward to another seven figure profit on this “bad pick” in the near future.
much easier now to determine appropriate value for buyout purposes. Voc should bring 4-5 billion. DES would have been nice but not why we became interested a few years ago. Will be a good buying opportunity for now.
Welcome back TC. Didn’t you have a blog about Auph for awhile? Do you still have ADXS? Are you back in Auph now or have just not been posting? What are your thoughts about Auph at this time? Nice to hear from you. It is an exciting time to be invested in Auph.
The company is extremely undervalued at a 2b market cap given the high likelihood that Voclosporin should achieve close to that amount in annual sales. If we consider 3x projected revenue as realistic buyout price we should be valued at around 5-6b. DES isn’t factored into this but could add further value when the buyout happens. Buying the stock now is a no brainer given the incipient approval. The GIA talk is obviously necessary for negotiation purposes but the management team was selected for their expertise in getting the company ready to be sold and this will happen most likely in 2021.
My post suggested (again) that Voclosporin might be a potential treatment for COVID related cytokine storm in the future Obviously this small study in renal transplant patients will only support the fact that Voc is a superior cni compared to Tac for this very narrow indication.
Agreed, Voclosporin could have a role in treating moderate to severe COVID. I don’t think that possibility will be overlooked by a potential buyer and might help to support a higher buyout price. Just one more potential indication for the best CNI out there. In the interim we have great catalysts coming soon and once a stimulus is announced the markets will fly. We just need to get past the election. I expect the 20’s after the catalysts and 30-40 for a buyout in ‘21. Jess deserves credit for posting before anyone on Voc’s potential role in COVID treatment for cytokine storm. It makes perfect sense based on yesterday’s PR.
Seriously any connection with COVID will get attention. Just look at some of the vaccine stocks that skyrocketed on the COVID hype. If nothing else it will get some new investors looking at the company. Very good timing for this study
Vid sends regards and happy to have study incorporating his name lol. Maybe the sp gets a COVID bounce.
It’s been awhile. I’m sure like other Ariad veterans here, we have learned how to be patient. I think the next three months will determine if our patience will be justified. I am anticipating favorable DES results and a Voc approval within that time. I also expect the patent issue to be resolved with an extension through 2037. These three catalysts should facilitate a share price in the high 20’s. More importantly these catalysts should result in the company being acquired with a premium resulting in a 35-40 sp in 2021. I am very confident these events will occur. Despite the prolonged inactivity things are about to happen which will result in a very lucrative payday for all of us with the exception of the two shorts on this board.
Does anyone else think that the 2 trillion dollar stimulus may be insufficient? With massive unemployment and millions of people staying at home, I think it will take much more than that to get the economy going again. Trumps desire to get life back to normal by Easter may sound crazy but it indicates that he is aware of the consequences of having the economy shut down longer than that which may be irreversible and cause a long global depression. It seems like we face an impossible situation of having to continue measures to limit exposure to the virus and thereby facilitating the terrible economic consequences which will cause millions more to suffer far beyond the effects of the virus alone. I don’t know what the answer is but it will be interesting to see how the market responds to the stimulus. I’m guessing that any relief will be minimal and short lived. I hope I am totally wrong about this. Even in the worst bear markets some companies do well and I think Auph will be one of them.
Auph will follow the market up or down for now. The danger in selling is possibly missing the buyout. When the market calms down (who knows when) then Auph is a great buy again. For now, I’d advise doing nothing or, if this decline is making you too depressed, getting out, as it is may worsen before it gets any better.
Gilead has a drug which is being used for very ill CV patients on a compassionate use basis and apparently helps (for anyone here who acquires the virus or knows someone with it.) I hope all of us who have been here awhile stay healthy and come out of this miserable situation intact and not too badly damaged by all the fallout from this miserable event. Auph remains the same company with the same great product now as it was before this started, and is in terrific shape financially to weather this storm.
Once the virus situation in China begins to stabilize which apparently is already starting to happen, the markets will very quickly reverse course from the knee jerk reaction we have seen this week. I expect that to happen fairly soon, after it becomes clear that the vast majority of cases over here will resemble a normal course of flu which won’t be pleasant but is manageable. Yes, there may be some areas hit harder than others resulting in school closings and perhaps cancellations of public gatherings. But as we are starting to see in China, the long term implications from the virus will be moderate both in terms of its effects on the economy and the actual number of people who will have a severe or fatal outcome. The stronger companies like Auph will be the first to recover from the recent decline and I expect a very fast return to our recent levels in the 20’s or perhaps higher as investors will be looking for the companies with the best potential In which to invest the billions in cash they are now sitting on. We may decline further in the near term if the market continues its panic induced sell off but I would be surprised if we retreat much below 15. At that level and especially once the market stabilizes then Auph will be an absolute bargain once again and the window of opportunity for cheap shares will be very short lived. For now the best advice is to do nothing until the dust settles.
Tough to watch the recent action. However, when the dust settles I would expect a rapid return to the 20’s. Not a thing wrong with the company. Quite the opposite, the company is proceeding ahead as expeditiously as we could hope. While retailers panic and sell, the pros are thrilled to pick up cheap shares. Many here have been through worse than this with Ariad and aren’t going anywhere. For some this is just a terrific buying opportunity. Maybe this downturn will result in a buyout sooner rather than later. I wouldn’t want to be on the sidelines when that happens.
The markets were long overdue for a correction and looking for any excuse to sell off. Auph was taken down disproportionately by the professional manipulators who very much want cheap shares. Additionally some retailers were disappointed by the apparent willingness by the company to go it alone if necessary which likely exacerbated the downturn for Auph. However, despite a possible bear market and even if a buyer isn’t forthcoming, Auph will thrive in the months ahead as it becomes increasingly more obvious that the company is very undervalued relative to the potential revenue which will be realized from the LN indication alone. The corona virus fears will abate eventually although the markets may take time to recover from the economic fallout . The better companies like Auph will continue to do well despite the incipient bear market and I believe that the company will be sold within the next year although making preparations to go it alone if necessary.
It wasn’t long ago that a .33 gain was considered a major event here. Now it hardly gets a mention. Times have certainly changed. Even our resident basher seems to have given up playing his games knowing that it is pointless as no one here is selling when we are closing in on a major win. Now we see the institutional investors coming on board. That alone is extremely encouraging and reassuring. The question becomes why the sudden interest by the professional investors? What do they know or anticipate that is prompting the large new positions that we are seeing constantly lately?. It sure seems like something is about to happen fairly soon. It’s going to be quite a ride.
Agreed Jess. Until the next catalyst we can expect the kind of low volume trading we have seen over the last few weeks to continue. One of these days we will be rewarded for our patience just as we were in the past. Until then it’s just another day in the cold northeast, waiting patiently for Spring and for Auph to hit large hopefully sooner rather than later. The wait will be worth it.
More games by the market manipulators. It’s understandable. Auph has an incredible future ahead of it. They can screw with the sp all they want but they won’t get my shares. If Auph isn’t acquired there’s no telling how high the price may go just on the three indications being developed now. We talk about 30-50 to keep it real or for buyout guesstimates, but I think that over time there is a good chance that those numbers are very low if the company remains autonomous. As always knowing what we own and being infinitely patient are the prerequisites for success.