Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH)

[Churchill54]

Once the virus situation in China begins to stabilize which apparently is already starting to happen, the markets will very quickly reverse course from the knee jerk reaction we have seen this week. I expect that to happen fairly soon, after it becomes clear that the vast majority of cases over here will resemble a normal course of flu which won’t be pleasant but is manageable. Yes, there may be some areas hit harder than others resulting in school closings and perhaps cancellations of public gatherings. But as we are starting to see in China, the long term implications from the virus will be moderate both in terms of its effects on the economy and the actual number of people who will have a severe or fatal outcome. The stronger companies like Auph will be the first to recover from the recent decline and I expect a very fast return to our recent levels in the 20’s or perhaps higher as investors will be looking for the companies with the best potential In which to invest the billions in cash they are now sitting on. We may decline further in the near term if the market continues its panic induced sell off but I would be surprised if we retreat much below 15. At that level and especially once the market stabilizes then Auph will be an absolute bargain once again and the window of opportunity for cheap shares will be very short lived. For now the best advice is to do nothing until the dust settles.