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Most recent Yelp review was only three stars. But...
The reason the customer docked Giggles a few points was because she was unhappy with how crowded it was.
So that is actually a very good sign! Maybe this means Giggles needs more locations, and/or bigger locations, to meet demand.
The demand is there. In time, the supply will meet it.
ShawnyD -- wins the award for the board's biggest
D_BAG!!!
How much of a loss did you end up taking?
Question: Does complaining make you feel better? If so, then have at it, but you do realize it isn't going to change the stock price, right?
Best to sell and move on and recoup any losses elsewhere. This is dead money for the next year, at least.
Not sure if you have ever started a company but it takes a very long time to go from concept to success. Lots of hiccups and bumps in the road along the way. Listen to the podcast this morning and he even admits that the toxic cash was a terrible mistake. It sank the share price. And now it is slowly recovering. Yes it might be down from ,20 but it's still up considerably from ,005.
Do you think there will not be anymore locations? I think we will have 100+ locations in 20 years.
It's the offering. No doubt about it.
Can't say I'm surprised. Parsi is in WAYYY over his head. He's a decent enough guy, but he needs to learn to stop making promises he cannot keep.
Just listened to the interview. Parsi sounds nervous. Lots of "ummms". Doesn't seem confident at ALL about Bahrain happening now. "We'll see what happens." verbatim quote.
Fingers crossed.
Do you still have your shares? Are you part of that core?
The smart thing would have been to do it then. But also remember it only traded at .20 for like a month. That is barely enough time to run an offering.
I wouldn't buy TMPS either solely because Johan is the owner.
I'd buy it because it's a relative cheap stock that is producing revenues, has established relationships with the US military, and has a relatively small float because most of the shares are held by a man who will never be forced to sell his stake prematurely because he needs the cash.
I'd buy it because right now, it's trading well below the .52/share that they acquired the planes for -- and you have to imagine that whomever sold the planes did so with the presumption that one day those shares would be worth more than .52.
I'd buy it because at these prices, it's very oversold from its recent highs.
Nobody has ever made a billion dollars running scams.
Even Bernie Madoff only made like $100M or so running one of the largest ponzi schemes in history.
You don't become the head of a major international corporation from running scams, either -- someone might be able to pull off one or two but reputation ultimately precedes you in business, and the BOD of a company like Head would vet any potential leader very, very carefully.
Johan had a reason for selling. Whether TMPS goes lower or not is debatable; what is not debatable is that Johan made his fortune as a scam artist.
I think you are missing the bigger picture here.
A273 works for Retts, it gets approved. If it's approved it can be used off-label for other indications.
If it's approved, it makes it easier for the FDA to approve it if it shows any benefit for Alzheimer's.
If it's approved for Retts, I would imagine it would be likely to work for other indications too -- i.e. a platform MOA.
Unfortunately, not as high as you may think or want it to. There is a chance it might pop based on speculation and/or short covering, but this would probably be short lived just like the pop to .20s in March.
The Bahrain deal calls for two initial locations that will pay an upfront fee plus a percentage of royalties.
Being on the aggressive side, let's presume each franchise location brings in $1M (this is way beyond what I'd expect a GIGL franchise to fetch, but why not dream, right?) It also calls for a percentage of sales, this is typically 8% but let's assume it's 10% to be aggressive.
So we're at $1M for the franchise rights and in year 1, if both Bahrain locations bring in $8M in sales combined, that's another $800k. So let's round up to $2M initially, and then $800k each additional year. Best case scenario.
There are 135M+ shares outstanding. I know more have been issued but we'll go with that number.
The simple calculation would be to take the $2M in revenue and divide it by the number of shares; it comes out to about .015/share.
If we go by earnings, however, let's say that the two US locations generate $400k in profit each. The total "profit" Giggles would make would then be $400k +400K + 1M + 800K, or $2.6M.
$2.6M/135M shares = .019 EPS.
Now you have to assign a PE multiple. It's usually anywhere from 5 to 40, but I think RedChip assigned in one valuation scenario a 10.5x PE, so we can use that.
.019 x 10.5 = .195/share.
Best case if you go strictly by the numbers, .20 is about right. But again, the numbers we used here are extremely aggressive. I'd halve it to get a more realistic figure.
.10 should be the new "floor", it will go up beyond that based on speculation but when someone is valuing the company, that would be roughly the price they'd use.
Regarding non-toxic financing, can you be more specific? If a PE firm uses .10/share as a valuation, would that be fair? If so, let's say Giggles wants to raise $30M to expand. That would mean they'd have to issue 300M shares.
If they can open 75 new locations with that $30M, there would be 77 corporate owned locations each bringing in say $300k/year profit.
77 x 300k = $23.1M profit
$23.1/435,000,000 OS = .053 EPS
Assign the same 10.5x PE multiple and each share would be worth around .56.
Hope this helps!
$1800 but who's counting, pal/
Say what?
I bought some at .25 and put in a stink ask at .031. Went to the gym and came back and to my surprise (and to be honest, disappointment) it filled at the end of the day.
Now tomorrow I need to put in another bid in the high 2s and pray it fills...probably won't.
My name is all over the internet, those who know me know my business acumen and history. I don't really get too worked up over internet strangers and what they think.
Yeah, I am new to iHub. New to day trading, actually -- never had time for the stock market over the last 19 years as I built up a company. I'm sure I am going to make at ton of mistakes early on in this pursuit, but its just gambling money for me.
We could easily transfer 250k into an online escrow account. Takes about 10 minutes to do it. Or we could do less, if you don't have 250k?
Actually, the last two companies that I ran were sold for a very, very lucrative amount.
I have since been able to retire early, and spend my days reading, working out, and learning how to day trade to pass the time.
Every CEO makes mistakes. Dr. Simpson would not have been my top choice to run Delcath.
But, if you are trying to insinuate that Chemosat has no value to a third party, you are either mistaken or have some sort of agenda.
The good news is that in time, one of us will be proven correct. Right now the stock is trading around .10. I'm willing to bet that in the next six months, it'll be at least 50% higher.
Care to make a wager? Say, $250K, winner picks the charity, that Delcath is trading at or above .17 by March 1, 2018?
Let's see how this plays out long term before calling the fool. If it drops to a penny, that person who sold at .045 will look pretty smart.
We had a decent quasi-PR today, but we're not out of the woods yet. Parsi has a history of overpromising, so I'm waiting to see if he executes on anything he mentioned today -- Bahrain, financing, the QIC deal at another location, etc.
Sure, what's wrong with that? Sell the assets for, say, $200M (.40/share), and keep the shell. Then you can probably sell the shell for another $10M or so to some company that wants to go public and maybe take advantage of the NOLs, if you hire a securities attorney who is smart enough to know how to work the laws to preserve them.
Total gain would be around .42/share. Not spectacular, but certainly a nice return for those who got in at .10 or less.
Giggles doesn't need celebrity investors. It has celebrity customers and that is good enough -- most businesses pay for that kind of exposure.
Giggles should be in airports though if it wants to maximize exposure and foot traffic. Ever been on a two hour layover with three hyperactive kids? You could pay $100 for airport lounge access -- and the kids would have to be on their best behavior -- or you could pay $75 (airport prices) for two meals, a few drinks, and admission to the play area.
Then you'd go home, and wish you had a Giggles n Hugs in your city. That's how you create brand excitement. Trader Joes is a master at it.
Last I checked, Chemosat is an asset that was approved in Europe. Lots of companies would like to own it for the right price, as it can be valuable if/when other countries adopt its use and single-payer insurance covers the procedure.
You're half correct, WarChest.
If they had the votes they would not need to extend the voting deadline.
However, where I think you are incorrect is that a "no" vote automatically means bankruptcy.
A "no" vote could just as easily mean a forced asset sale.
Remember what happened the last time the shareholders voted "no?" The stock ran up about 1800%, not on the speculation of BK, but on the speculation of the company being bought out.
Simpson is at the end of her rope. She can't keep trying to get the shareholders to vote yes. Either she files for BK or she sells the company.
Do you really think there will be zero interest for a company with a proven technology that is approved in Europe and will most likely secure approval in the United States? Even if the company is sold for $100M, that's still an 80% gain from current PPS.
I'm with you that I don't think a BK is the first option. I was just positing the idea because a lot of people have misconceptions that with a BK, the company goes out of business. That could not be further from the truth.
If there were a BK, the company itself would continue business as usual. It might secure a DIP loan that supersedes the current debt, to allow for operations to continue running smoothly. The only thing that may possibly change is that old equity is wiped out and the creditors take over the newly issued equity.
But, I also think that is unlikely. Most bankruptcies stem from a situation where the liabilities exceed the value of the assets -- in this instance, it's more of a cash flow issue, the company has run out of money and cannot continue operations. The assets themselves are still incredibly valuable, and would be sold off to the highest bidder.
What is not supposed to happen -- and I say supposed to because there are always exceptions like Kmart, and the greedy creditors will undoubtedly try the same here -- is that the assets are intentionally undervalued so the entire thing goes to the creditors, and then miraculously, after BK, the value goes back up again.
In a BK, I would be willing to bet that Chemosat is sold, the creditors are made whole, and anything left over gets divided 500M ways and goes to the shareholders.
It's not that anyone here (or at least me) thinks he is "bad" in the sense that he is a thief, that he took everyone's money and folded up shop and moved to Maui.
It's that he is woefully inexperienced to be a CEO. His "Wall Street" credentials look good on the surface to those who aren't in the field, but essentially he was a glorified stock broker. So yeah, he has a basic understanding of various securities regulations and whatnot, but it's hardly an MBA-level position that requires demonstrated financial analysis, and more importantly, leadership. At the core, stock brokers are salesmen. And Joey is a fantastic company pitchman.
A few of the rookie mistakes include:
1) Accepting toxic financing. Yeah, it's tempting when you need start up capital but it wrecked the share structure. 125M shares OS isn't too bad for a company that's growing, but when there are only two locations to show for it and you'll need to issue more shares to continue growth, it becomes a bit problematic for existing shareholders as it caps the overall value of each share.
2) Making agreements with various M&A agencies like Pacific and Kiddos. There's a time and a place for these kinds of deals. Best to wait until the company has established a brand. Look at how long it took before CPK ventured into frozen foods. Look how long Gymboree waited until it ventured into clothing. Look how long Disney waited before it created theme parks. Ancillary revenue is wonderful and Parsi is right that opportunities exist, but a more experienced CEO would know that it's all in the timing because you often only get one crack at maximizing these opportunities.
3) Announcing LOIs without being able to execute in a timely manner. While I am glad that Giggles did not enter Tanofran and then be subject to a renovation, Joey should have asked if there were plans to renovate before announcing the LOI. Similarly with Bahrain, don't make a deal and announce it during Ramadan if it's going to create delays.
4) Signing Jillian is helpful because she has a major following and is associated with fitness and health -- put her face on the frozen pizzas and people will buy them. But giving Tia Mowry an equity stake in the company to make a few tweets...ugh. Tia is a fine actress but she isn't really a "star." She doesn't draw crowds to her movies and she certainly isn't going to draw crowds to Giggles because of a tweet. There are a few celebs with that kind of pull -- and Tia unfortunately isn't one of them. If you're going to go after celebrity endorsements, pick the right ones and wait until you have more than two locations at nearly max capacity.
The good news is that Joey has time to learn, and I hope he is relying on Gay and Kaufman to assist with some of the managerial decisions. I know Giggles is his baby, his idea, but there are others around him who have more experience in this field to execute the day to day while Joey does what he does best -- to be a pitchman and sell the brand to investors and customers.
Bahrain master license calls for two locations there. There are fewer than 1.5M people, I don't think Bahrain could support more than two, maybe three total locations.
There is something in business law called the business judgement rule, which holds that executives cannot be held liable if they act in what they consider to be the best interest of the company.
However, to file for bankruptcy without first exploring a potential sale of assets would most likely be in violation of that rule, especially if there were offers above where the stock is currently trading at.
I don't think Dr. Simpson wants the legal issue.
Moreover, even if there was a bankruptcy, the stock would drop to around .02 or so short term but the court case would take months to play out. Because the amount of debt is so low, I would imagine it would not be hard to find a buyer for the assets the would satisfy the creditors and possible return something to the shareholders, too. In essence, it would be a forced liquidation.
I tend to agree, however, there's always the possibility of spite. Dr. Simpson twice would have been rejected by the shareholders and if she is at all malicious, she might just decide bankruptcy is the better path forward.
Try to eliminate the old shares, give new equity to the creditors in exchange for the cancellation of existing debt and maybe an infusion of cash to get through the rest of the trials.
She has so few shares she would not care to lose them as it would be a near guarantee she would be issued new shares in the reorganized entity.
I don't think BK happens but its absolutely on the table.
When I first heard about Tanofran remodeling, I wondered if it was another load of BS to buy time. So it is reassuring that Parsi has made public this "fact" as it validates what I perceive to be a legitimate reason for not moving forward with Tanofran. I'd be more upset if they opened a location and a few months later there's no traffic because of the renovations -- we'd all be blaming Parsi for not doing his full DD.
I also agree that now is not the right time to start engaging M&A companies for merchandising. Very few know about the Giggles brand right now. I hope he shelves that ridiculous plan for the time being and comes back to it when frozen food companies are begging him to make a deal instead of the other way around. Focus on the core business first, then grow over time into other things. It took Amazon almost a decade before it moved beyond books.
Positive that he addressed financing and also that Bahrain seems to be on track. Also positive that the business model appears to be generating demand at the two open locations.
Overall, I give this PR a "B+" grade. The biggest negative is the Tanofran deal is off. Maybe he can parlay this into something better by opening a new location in Seattle or somewhere cold and wet. Or on the east coast.
A few things:
1) Jillian may have very well already sold at least some of her shares. They were granted to her fully vested so she was under no obligation, as far as I know, to hold them. Whether she did sell or not is unknown.
2) I agree, right now Parsi isn't looking so hot. Sometimes bringing celebrities on board can help to secure financing, so I don't really consider that to be a blunder, but his big miss was not to secure at least a few million dollars while the stock was in the .20s. As they say, "strike while the iron is hot."
3) I spoke to someone on this board who shall remain unnamed, who was kind enough to share an email correspondence with Joey from last month. Suffice it to say, there appears to be some legitimate reasons for the LOIs to have not been executed into something binding. Now, whether he was truthful in his correspondence is unknown as well, but the information appears to be verifiable and I plan to work towards verifying later this week.
The bad news is that we might be waiting without news for some time. The good news, if you want to call it that, is that eventually I do believe there will be some news -- that hopefully can get us back over .10. If you're in the hole, now may be the appropriate time to average down so if/when news does come, you can get out if you wish with minimal losses.
4) I still believe in my gut that Jillian did not sign up to promote two locations. Nor did Gay and Kaufman.
5) Assuming the Yelp reviews are not fake, there appears to be sufficient demand as evidenced by solid revenues at both locations. I'd rather have a product people want and a CEO who can't sell it than a product nobody wants and a CEO who is top notch.
6) Someone who has Parsi's ear really needs to convince him to look into airports. Yes, the rent is going to be extraordinarily high, but a) there are literally millions of potential customers, and b) it goes a far way toward creating both a known brand across the country and world, and more importantly, creating demand for a local Giggles if customers like their experience at the airport and want something similar back home.
7) My short term thesis is negative. Long term, I still like the risk/reward. A LOT can change in five years. If by 2022 we're still at two locations with 100k in cash, well, at that point, we are pretty much f$%ked.
Any time you can buy under the price management is buying you know chances are it's a fair price to pay.
CEO is apparently from what I read here a community college graduate who was a stockbroker, but pumped his bio to make it sound like he was a Wall Street hotshot.
Not exactly the type of guy I think who has the brains to run a publicly traded company. He might be good at executing bid and ask orders though?
Minus the food. But I'd guess most parents who go to Giggles go for the playground, not the food...
This is why Tanofran is DOA. This is why Giggles itself might be DOA. The concept is simply WAY too easy to copy.
Here's how I know that the Tanofran deal isn't going to materialize.
There's already an indoor playground in that mall!
https://www.yelp.com/biz/hop-n-play-indoor-playground-san-bruno
Well to be fair, I think some of the execs involved are not really "employees" per se.
Todd Star, for example, may have a fancy title but he's a paid consultant. He would consult for anyone who was willing to pay him. Same with Philip Gay, he has his own side business project. Parsi seems to be the only full-time member of the team who is 100% committed to Giggles. Which sucks for all of us, because he's the loser of the group
Of course it'll be another fluff PR. Parsi has no spine, no balls, and no ability actually make a move that has any lasting effect on the PPS>
I disagree. I think he's going to have to secure another round of toxic financing or keep issuing more shares to stay afloat.
Ask yourself why hasn't he gone to Wells Fargo or someone and secured a traditional loan or taken money at good terms from a VC if his company is in demand like he claims?
The 10Q itself said there's only enough runway to get through September. Face it, Parsi is running this company like a degenerate gambler who lives paycheck to paycheck
Not preaching to anyone, just surprised how quickly your sentiment seemed to have soured on absolutely no news.
One could argue he did a terrible job for letting the stock get to .003 to begin with.
And unfortunately, this is going back to .003 very, very, very soon.
That was a short-lived bullish sentiment. Weren't you saying this was going to multiple pennies just a few days ago?
Just have a little patience, dude. It'll be fine.
It's not a scam. It's just got a complete clown running things, collecting a fat salary.
Parsi doesn't know how to run a business. I'm honestly surprised he knows how to tie his shoes. I wouldn't trust him with a pair of scissors.
The demand is there based on the fact that revenues continue to increase at each of the two locations. People seem to like it as seen by the Yelp reviews. But, I do not believe Parsi was telling the truth when he said how people were begging him to open their own locations. I do not believe he was telling the truth when he said mall owners are rolling out the red carpet for his new locations.
It's not a scam, but it's not as rosy as Parsi wants people to believe it is.