This is going to keep dropping, IMO. News already released. It'll find a bottom around 4, then pop up a bit, then drop some more if the shorts come out to play after CTAD.

Smart money sold in the high 4s. Smart money will buy back in the mid to high 3s in a few weeks.

Good luck!

So many excuses here.

How about this one? People are taking profits? Lots of traders like myself bought this in July in the 3s. And have been selling positions in the high 4s. The more selling the more it drops. This stock is easy money if you know how to trade in and out, like clockwork.

Not everything is manipulation or algorithms. Some is, sure, but not all. A lot of the reason the stock price is dropping is simply the sell the news. This was undervalued at 3.50 and overvalued at 5.30. It is finding a normal groove probably in the high 3s, and from there it can start to make another leg up when the next bit of news is released in a week or two at CTAD. Or, it could collapse at CTAD with shorts piling on like last July.

I'll buy back in at 3.80 or lower, half pos, and will take another half pos at 3.25 if it gets back down there again.

It'll happen. Always does. This stock has trouble breaking past 5, but when it does it should rocket. Until then there is too much short pressure versus the number of big buyers like yourself.

I think they are taking it back under 4 IMO. Remember 2015 CTAD? Yeah there are more institutional holders but it's still 75% retail and very easily manipulated

You aren't in the minority. Selling merchandise before a brand is like selling windshield wipers before inventing the car. It's moronic.

Parsi basically lied through his teeth in this interview saying they have partnerships with all the major mall owners. If someone really wanted to screw him over, they could submit this interview to the SEC -- he has a partnership agreement with ONE mall operator and has had discussions with the others.

Bahrain is over. It was never going to happen. All you had to do was listen to his voice on the last interview.

Parsi has vision. He lacks intelligence.

You don't feel this way. You hated Parsi up until two weeks ago, and nothing has changed except the stock price is more palatable for you to buy at these prices.

Parsi isn't going to sell this company for tens of millions in two years. It's barely worth $1M today. This is going to be a long, 10 year investment for many here. Yeah there will be flipping opportunities throughout but the real money -- or failure-- will come to those who ride it out until 2030 and then we see if Giggles is a household name in every city across America.

Methinks the voices and conversations in your head should stay in there.

My $100 was just an arbitrary number to prove the point that Anavex can't dictate the price overseas like it can in America.

As for the other points you make, we shall see. I'm willing to bet that if Anavex has solid P3 trials, someone will make Missling an offer he can't refuse knowing he might have the drug but no way of selling it, and the drugs literally have an expiration date -- when the patent ends, he better hope 371 is as good as advertised.

You don't think if someone offered Missling $100-$200M tomorrow he wouldn't take it? I'm pretty sure he would. And so too would most others here on this board.

If Carl Ichan decided that he wants to take Anavex private and issues a tender offer of $50/share, I think he gets the votes.

Missling knows this is a very good possibility as well which is why he needed shareholder approval to issue a new class of preferred shares to act as a poison pill against such an action.

$50/share would add several million dollars to most of our portfolios. And most of us would take it knowing the risk of a failed P3 means you lose everything.

The main issue is that your numbers presuppose $1000/person for 50M people. I think that there is undoubtedly enough sick people to treat, but not solely in America.

The first problem is that the majority of the world is either poor, and cannot afford $1000, or is part of a socialized single payer system where Anavex would have zero leverage -- the government or EU or whoever will tell Anavex we will pay you $100/person and take it or leave it.

The second issue is that you do not really factor in all the costs associated with scaling up to serve a population of 50M. It will be a lot more substantial than you think.

The third issue is that 50M shares means only another 9M or so issued; even at $8/share, that will barely be enough to get through the P3 trials and regulatory process. Anavex will inevitably have to partner with someone who can front the costs of manufacturing and marketing the drug, and this means that the 50M share count by which you divided the revenues is moot.

Finally, there's the issue regarding patents and expiration and generics and other drugs that will be developed that will erode market share. Does Anavex have patents for every country and how long will those patents last before they expire? You're looking at a relatively short period of time for Anavex to try to grab as much cash as possible.

I think the best comp is Aricept, which had peak sales of around $2.6B and in the last few years that number has fallen steadily with the introduction of generics. Why would Anavex's drug be so much more lucrative than any other previous standard of care, even with an uptick in the number of people using it?

I think a safe bet is to say that if Anavex works, you can forecast potential revenues of around $25-$30B over an eight year period. So let's round up and say it's $4B/year revenue, and we'll even say that is pure profit so we don't factor in tax or any other expenditures. I also think it's safe to assume that when all is said and done, we'll be fully maxed out of OS. So the very peak would be around $400/share, which is possible -- REGN and others have hit that mark. But more likely, some company will make an offer for $5-$10B at the end of a successful P3, and Dr. Missling will accept it. He has 1M+ shares -- it's hard to turn down $100M.

You are suggesting that AVXL can one day be a $10k stock?

First of all, no it can't. Your math is off with regards to dividends. Berkshire Hathaway doesn't pay a dividend -- what does your math tell you about its valuation?

Secondly, $10,000 would put Anavex's MC at $500B, or 1.5x that of J&J.

Sorry, but this company would have to cure Alzheimer's, cancer, AIDS, and global poverty for it to ever have a $500B valuation.

I like your posts and I get this exercise is just for fun, but I worry about novice investors who will read this and actually think $1000 or more is possible. It isn't. Want proof?

If someone decided to do a public tender at, say, $80/share -- they'd get the shares they need to take over. Even with a poison pill provision, the company would be acquired for at most $120/share. And that is a stretch,

It is trading at or near fair value currently. You might get a small spike to .04/.05, and a small drop under a penny, but the ebbs and flows of the price should remain in the .01-.03 groove if everything were to stay permanently stagnant. This is why downside risk is minimal here.

The caveat of course is whether the company can afford to pay its employees from revenues. If they continue to issue shares as compensation, then you have a situation where revenues stay the same but the pie is being divided more ways. If that happens, sub-penny levels are the likely norm.

GIGL is one of those stocks that will run hard when there's news, and then will slowly drift back down, each time forming a slightly higher low.

Eventually there will be lots of locations. Most will be franchised, but it's $$$ into the company.

Someone else posted here that the plan is to franchise out, and use the increased brand exposure to then sell other cr*p to consumers such as backpacks and frozen pizza and stuff. I like this idea.

What were your terms? And was this pre or post the St George financing?

The concept is first rate. The management is solid on paper, but Parsi lacks the experience and polish required to be a CEO. The good news is that he is learning, the bad news is that he is learning at shareholders' expense, such as the dangers of accepting toxic money.

The question every investor must ask is whether they care more about the concept or the management. You're not going to find a great concept with a great management team trading for .02/share. But, one can oftentimes overcome the other, and sometimes, bad management can become good and a good concept can become stale.

What Parsi needs is money. He's hoping the shareholders themselves will give it to him. I am skeptical this plan will work, and what often happens next is those unsubscribed shares are dumped into the open market. So I do expect there be dilution up to around 300M OS.

If you are willing to buy and hold there is some money to be made here, I think.

Short version is that the stock was overpriced at .25. And .15. And .10. And so on.

Long version is that stock is dropping on a combination of small revenues with only a few locations, a desperate need for cash that is going to most likely lead to near-term dilution, and a CEO who sometimes gets excited about news and signs these nonbonding LOIs, but then they fail to materialize and shareholders get frustrated and impatient.

But mostly, it's the lack of cash that is preventing the company from growing. How much would YOU pay for a restaurant that only has two locations?

September is when I train my rhomboids and lats. Biceps were last month.

If Bahrain doesn't happen maybe I'll do some calf work too

Not wrong but not correct, either. Saying it went from 3 to 2 locations without any context is like saying that Antwan Jamison is a better player than Michael Jordan. Yes, in 2002/2003 (Jordan's final year) he finished behind Jamison in scoring, but is that the entire sum of their careers?

Had Century City not renovated their mall, would Giggles have left? Did Giggles leave the Century City location because it wasn't performing and there was no interest from the customers?

You have to look at the big picture. Data can be manipulated to show whatever you want it to. But going from 3 to 2 when it was through no fault of the company isn't a big deal.

Nah, at the end of the day I think I am going to make money from this investment. It's the impatient ones who just want everything to go perfectly all the time who are usually the losers. There isn't a single startup in the history of the world that has moved smoothly from inception to billion dollar valuations. Giggles included.

What's it to you? Maybe I like giving money to the company so they can keep the lights on, because my kids enjoy playing there.

In all fairness, the $5B assets is offset by an even greater amount of recorded liabilities.

This is why the market cap is so low. The stockholder's deficit is $61.7M.

It might bounce on a technical chart but the fundamentals of this one are not so great.

1) Please don't type in all CAPS. It makes whatever point you're trying to convey so much more difficult to read.

2) St. George might not be selling, but I believe they are. If your speculation is correct that this is retail, it doesn't make sense to see the price action move down in such a slow and methodical manner. Paranoid retail would be more prone to dumping the entire lot, and we'd be seeing volume spikes every day.

3) Why would St George hold their shares? There is a lot of bad blood between them and GIGL. Moreover, St. George is in the business of vulture lending -- they aren't in the business of holding equity for the long term to sell at a profit. They got what are essentially free shares, and they sold.

St. George received 9M shares at an average price of .0122/share. Considering the bottom was at .024, and the selling began around the .10 range, at a minimum St. George doubled up on this settlement.

Also Temecula is a dime a dozen. Calabassas, or Costa Mesa, or Woodland Hills, or Thousand Oaks, or anywhere else in SoCal would be good location, too.

Giggles needs to expand beyond SoCal. It need to establish itself in large cities like San Fran, Seattle, Miami, Boston, Chicago, etc. This would help it secure a competitive advantage, as right now it is just a local business -- expanding elsewhere in SoCal might make it regional, but still leaves open the opportunity for competition elsewhere.

Serious question, please don't be embarrassed to answer.

How much money have you lost in this stock? And do you think crying about it is going to bring your money back?

John Kent, did you ever get out of your big position here?

Any one have a link to the news?

Sorry man.

The more experienced traders here tend to be the first ones to get out.

Maybe the company can fix this. Otherwise, it's going well into the trips and may never recover.

I feel bad for that guy who has 11M shares!!

You still think this is a solid hold?

I guess not much to do at this point...

1) Jillian didn't invest. She has warrants that allow her to buy a certain number of shares at a pre-defined price but there is no point in excising those warrants until the stock price is well above the warrant strike price. I don't know who started the rumor that Jillian invested millions of her own money, but it ain't so.

And even if she did invest $500k or so, that isn't all that much to her. While she might be disappointed, she's not going to lose ANY sleep if Giggles doesn't pan out. She invests in lots of companies. Some will work, some will not. Unlike some here on this board, Jillian isn't thinking about Giggles all day every day.

2) Bahrain isn't going to be enough to open a new location. Might get $250k upfront, and a few hundred k per year after that in royalties. Maybe. Bahrain is better to show that they are serious about expansion.

3) It's going to get much worse here before it gets better. I can say that with confidence because there are still too many disgruntled and impatient longs who are on the fence about whether they want to sell for a loss or not.

Most of the more experienced traders, I won't mention names but we know who they are, were smart to take their profits on the way down, and then re-enter with those profits at a lower price -- essentially buying back even more "free" shares.

You can hold this, trade it, or move on from it...complaining about it though ain't gonna get you anywhere but into a frustrated state of mind. Relax.

Well said. Nothing has changed. Everyone here wants to get rich quick. It doesn't happen like that.

I think that the current PPS drop is part St George selling, and part orchestrated for someone to take advantage of the offering discount.

I do hope that Parsi and others participates, it would be a big red flag if management were allowed to participate but chose not to. On the other hand, the MC of this company is so small right now, it wouldn't take much to acquire a controlling stake and kick Parsi to the curb.

I think $15M could do it. And I seriously, seriously doubt Parsi is smart enough to have included poison pills in his operation agreement to prevent such a maneuver. He owns $26M shares. There are 135M+ OS right now. I'd bet that if someone wanted to tender an offer to all shareholders at, say, .20/share. Needing only 51%. Most would accept that in a heartbeat.

Bahrain doesn't matter.

If it doesn't happen, and I don't think it will, it will be just another notch in the belt for Parsi's propensity to overpromise and underdeliver. It will be another black eye on his ability to run a publicly traded company. Parsi might have learned his lesson about what toxic financing can do to a share structure, but just as important is being able to read people and determine their intentions.

If an LOI is not binding, then what is the harm in signing it? It gives a quick PR boost, and either party can walk away later without any harm. Parsi should insist that all LOI's be binding, and if the other party fails to deliver, there is a breakup fee involved. Maybe it means the LOIs don't get signed but is that any worse than having them signed and backed out on?

Does it seem weird to anyone that Giggles first two locations would be Los Angeles and Bahrain? Why not expand domestically, then internationally?

But going back to my first point, Bahrain doesn't matter. It's a small territory that brings in at most $1M/year in revenues from two locations. The $250k or so initial fee would be enough to open zero stores here in the US.

Bahrain's only purpose is to show that Parsi is serious about and capable of expanding his business to new areas. That's it. And I don't believe that Giggles is any less likely to expand just because Bahrain doesn't materialize. It might take time. But the Yelp reviews and celebrity customers and all that are proof that demand is there. It takes money. Money is easy to find, if you know how. If Parsi doesn't know how, the squeeze is on before he hands the company over to someone who does. He's in this too with 26M shares.

I think St George is selling their shares, hence the continued downward pressure.

This is going to take a LONG time to generate returns but if Parsi can pull it off it will be worth the wait.

I don't like Parsi, I think he is incompetent and not CEO material, but he is who we are stuck with and the concept itself is solid. Just don't think he is going to get anywhere NEAR the $5M he wants in this offering. I think he will be lucky to end up with $500k.

Any dumping would be temporary, and might last a few weeks at most. Sort of like what we are (probably) seeing now with St. George -- the share price is dropping by the day because someone is orderly liquidating their shares. Maybe it's St. George? Maybe it's some of the longs here?

Thoth, JK -- you guys still holding? Lol.

The share price should recover once the selling ends. Parsi was honest to admit that he does not expect the locations to be able to sustain their current growth. But hopefully new locations will propel the stock price forward.

Dumping doesn't bother me. I actually would prefer if shares went from weak hands into strong hands. My shares are not available for sale for at least a year, but probably not even then. I like the company. I like the management (sans Parsi). I like the potential. And I'm fine with a bumpy, delayed ride as long as it eventually gets me to my destination. Others here feel a little turbulence and immediately think the plane is going to crash.

Pretty sure they have insurance. So what's the big deal?

We see the big picture. Most good investors are able to do that. Most terrible investors panic and bail because they are shortsighted.

You'd be the guy who sold Apple at $6 in 2000

You also realize that you only take a loss when you sell, right? Nothing has fundamentally changed with the company.

I looked at his post history, he's a terrible investor. Nuff sed.

Patience will reward the strong longs.

Why do you keep posting this?

Is Thoth still here? I know he was one of the posters I liked a lot, seemed knowledgable about the company. John Kent, too. If they are still holding, I see no reason why I shouldn't.

What was the other option, to remain in a mall that is being renovated and force customers to walk through a construction zone? With their kids?

Your posts are becoming increasingly hostile to the company.

Perhaps if you email Joey Parsi and ask really nicely, he will use some of the $5M to refund your losses.

The company is fine. And I have a feeling that in a few years you'll be regretting that you did not hold onto your shares. It's easy to become disillusioned and frustrated when the share price sinks, but really what has changed from earlier this year, when the stock was at .25?

What has caused it to be worth less today than back then? Same number of stores, same management.