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Luna also got into NVAX. He bought shortly after the split and took at least some profits. I'm pretty sure he still has small holding with Auph as well as NVAX.
He and Trading Cyclist were big reason I got into Auph after P2 results in 2017.
TC is on StockTwits as @Trading_Cyclist. I still follow him over there
I think it may have been Trading Cyclist. I know that I got into Advaxis after his bringing it up. I ended up losing a little, but I got out well before all of the reverse splits.
I know he felt bad about it and disappeared for quite a while before he surfaced on StockTwits.
Agree completely Jess. The information and insights that he and Trading Cyclist provided convinced me to get into AUPH heavily (after doing my own DD). Remember "The Auphians"?
I had 130K shares at P3, currently at 105 K shares. Couldn't resist taking some hefty profits. Did a lot of swing trading and selling of covered calls.
I'm going to be up early tomorrow so I can watch the premarket action. Not because I want to do any trading, but just so I can watch the ticker go crazy!
GLTA and enjoy the coming week.
I posted the following in a room on StockTwits at the end of September:
As much as I have enjoyed (and profited big time) with AUPH, I have started to execute my exit.
I am quite willing to take profits on a substantial portion (~30%) of my holdings, through covered calls at a strike price that may be called away, followed by selling in 5% increments with SP rise, until down ~25% of current holdings. Those I will keep until BO or it is clear that AUPH will truly go it alone.
I did something similar back with P3, taking profits as I went from 130K shares down to about 70K.
This won't give maximum in profits, but I believe in not being greedy or relying exclusively on BO.
Thoughts anyone?
Did you look at rolling those contracts up and out?
I did this the other day for 2oo Sep$20 contracts to Oct$22. Netted additional premium while gaining a little more upside value if they're called away.
Still, it's can't really argue with taking profits.
Just look at the article posted earlier today by BR
You forgot to include an earthquake caused continental shelf slippage off Scotland causing a 2000+ foot tsunami! :)
I was ready to post 'Who is John Galt', when I saw that Moose had beaten me to it.
I wonder how many would recognize my alias of Jack Brennan on ST? ??
It's on June 2.
2020-annual-general-meeting
It does bode well for tomorrow.
However, most of the volume (569100) was at ~4:30 @ $14.05.
There were a couple of thousand right before AH close @ $14.75, so I'm optimistic for tomorrow.
Links to today's webinars:
AURORA Phase 3 Trial Demonstrates Voclosporin Statistical Superiority Over Standard of Care in Lupus Nephritis
Lupus Nephritis in 2020: An Evidence-Based Review of Optimal Management and Emerging Treatments
These are from Aurinia's website.
You may be correct about buyout.
Everything they are doing to build infrastructure for commercialization adds value to a buyer, not just company and shareholders, so given a good enough offer, they might go with it.
However, I'm not sure you heard what I heard on the call about NDA. First, they were having a pre-NDA meeting with FDA today. Greenleaf stated they expect to submit the NDA before end of 2nd quarter, not second half. The end of second half was about DES study. Perhaps you got those two mixed up.
Poster from Keystone. Courtesy of Stock_expert_not on Stocktwits.
Aurinia Poster from Keystone
Don't know if it will have much impact on SP any time soon, as will need to be digested first by analysts.
No matter, just more good news.
And yes, I know that the summary of this was already released in PR in December, but it should have more impact from the presentation at the conference.
Indeed!
Like it better without the decimal point!
Slight disagreement. It will turn green before noon. :)
Just following your lead! :)
Actually was Moose who suggested I take a look at ST back in June.
Nah... StockTwits is more representative of somewhat elevated twitterverse, mostly populated with real twits, though frequently entertaining.
And a mea culpa - this comes from someone who spends a fair amount of time there too.
Challenge is sifting out the kernels of wisdom and knowledgeable insight from all the chaff.
Try StockTwits. There appears to be activity there.
Be fair Jess!
You beat me to it!! :)
But only by seconds.
Trading Cyclist
Thanks Maciste!
I think you may be right about ADXS.
I followed him and also invested in ADXS, but didn't find the science and particularly the management as compelling as AUPH and VOC, so only did some swing trading. As a result, I didn't end up losing all that much.
Anyone know what happened to Trading Cyclist?
He and Luna always provided sound (based on facts) discussion about AUPH.
I was just re-reading his post in The Auphians on June 6, 2017, about buy out pricing, which he said called for $63 per share.
Link:
Buy Out at $63?
I had posted a similar price in November, 2019 - post 7623 in reply to Jess post 7620, but I called mine a "Guestimate"
Neither of us included FSGS or DES as big component in the model at that time, and both those indications should be big contributors now.
About ILJIN selling.
Even though they sold 541k @ $16.18 and 329k @ $17.11 today, don't you think ILJIN feels a little dumb?
According to the 13D, they sold a little over 450k shares (100k +3892 + 100k + 200k + 50k) at prices ranging from $6.30 to $7.16 on Nov 21 thru Nov 27.
They lost out on ~$4.5 million by selling too early, though as Luna said, they've still got most of their holdings.
Can't say that I have any sympathy for them losing out :)
You might want to take some profits ~25% of shares if price gets to mid $20s, and hang on to the rest.
There will likely be a drop over the next few weeks of as much of 25% of the post release high. This could give you a chance to get back in.
Alternatively, you could sell some January covered calls that will guarantee you some profit as well as collecting the premium.
See my recent reply to Maciste - post 9749
Just wanted to add that it seldom hurts to take some profits.
That's one of the next catalysts!
Food for thought: P3 SP modeled on P2b data release history.
I'm using to guide my exit strategy (partial) on P3 data release.
12/28/2016 Close ~3 months before P2b data was $2.07. (Pre P2b reference)
3/1/2017 P2b data released AH
3/2/2017 Close after P2b data was $4.53 (High was $6.00)
+219% gain over pre P2b
3/13/2017 Close at high point after P2b data was $10.54 (Announcement of public offering of stock)
+509% gain over pre P2b
3/15/2017 Close was $7.77 after details of offering (22,300,000 shares @ $6.75 for $150MM)
+375% gain over pre P2b -26% Pullback Down vs. high
6/15/207 Close 3 months after P2b data was $5.94
+287% gain over pre P2b -44% Pullback Down vs. high
So, what can we expect?
Assuming same stellar results for P3 as P2b, might exceed the P2b performance.
Using the recent $3.88 SP from 10/14/2019, gives following if it only mirrors P2b: 2x at release ($7.5 to $8), then up 5x to high ($19 to $20).
This matches current analyst price targets. Just took until end of year to get there.
Good - just not current information.
BR post was for archived article on P2b results in June 2017.
So who is "Elemental Capital Research" on Seeking Alpha?
They certainly are NOT Elemental Capital Management - I think they chose that name to confuse, as Elemental Capital Management is legitimate hedge fund.
Interesting that have only written hit pieces - two on AUPH, and one on AGRX (Agile Therapeutics, Inc.)
As noted by others, there appears to be extensive cut and pasting and mis-representation of facts in article.
Add the following:
No actual name provided, the company "Element capital research" only shows 5 results on Google, all related to Seeking Alpha.
Most telling is fact that one of search results is a paper titled "Evaluating Analysts' U.S. Market Short Sell Recommendations"
Evaluating Analysts' U.S. Market Short Sell Recommendations
Couple this with the yahoo.com email address causes me to think this is just a paid basher.
And, based on the (unnecessary) length of the article, probably paid by the word.
As always, we longs are patient.
And do our research.
I missed the low yesterday and when we hit bottom at $3.52.
I didn't miss out entirely, though. Picked up 6500 shares ranging from $3.88 to $4.25 as I averaged down.
Wish I'd had more to invest.
Thanks for your well reasoned insight.
It's nice to see thoughtful analysis, which you have always been consistent in providing.
Hang in there Jess!
Over about 1 month, the share price worked it way up about $1 from mid $2 to mid $3 just before data release. Day after data release on the $49M trade volume, it was up less than a dollar.
Here's table of results.
Date Close
2/1/2017 $3.16
2/2/2017 $3.17
2/3/2017 $3.24
2/6/2017 $3.34
2/7/2017 $3.25
2/8/2017 $3.21
2/9/2017 $3.29
2/10/2017 $3.22
2/13/2017 $3.62
2/14/2017 $3.66
2/15/2017 $3.63
2/16/2017 $3.73
2/17/2017 $3.73
2/21/2017 $3.68
2/22/2017 $3.40
2/23/2017 $3.28
2/24/2017 $3.72
2/27/2017 $3.70
2/28/2017 $3.56
3/1/2017 $3.71
3/2/2017 $4.53 Data Release
3/3/2017 $4.81
3/6/2017 $5.36
3/7/2017 $7.10
3/8/2017 $7.16
3/9/2017 $7.78
3/10/2017 $8.50
3/13/2017 $10.54 High
Fireside Chat. Good news? Bad news?
Or just update of what's coming?
22 CASE STUDIES WHERE PHASE 2 AND PHASE 3 TRIALS HAD DIVERGENT RESULTS
---------------------------------------------
Just for grins, I thought I'd download the paper and look into the details to see if I could find BR's two examples.
I did not - surprise, surprise.
Most of the P2 studies were looking at markers or indicators for the disease/condition and then did not pan out when the P3 looked at outcome. Many of the P1 or P2 studies had been characterized as having "promising" results, which merited a P3.
I saw only one case that looked like P2 and P3 were essentially identical - this was for Eli Lily's Olanzapine Pamoate (Zyprexa Relprevv). In that case, some adverse event information had been missed in the P2 and was brought to light in P3. Even so, in that case the treatment was found to be effective, and the AE could be mitigated. The FDA advisery panel recommended approval with the mitigation.
Yes, it was $6.40.