Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH)

[ScifiSailor]

Food for thought: P3 SP modeled on P2b data release history.

I'm using to guide my exit strategy (partial) on P3 data release.

12/28/2016 Close ~3 months before P2b data was $2.07. (Pre P2b reference)
3/1/2017 P2b data released AH
3/2/2017 Close after P2b data was $4.53 (High was $6.00)
+219% gain over pre P2b
3/13/2017 Close at high point after P2b data was $10.54 (Announcement of public offering of stock)
+509% gain over pre P2b
3/15/2017 Close was $7.77 after details of offering (22,300,000 shares @ $6.75 for $150MM)
+375% gain over pre P2b -26% Pullback Down vs. high
6/15/207 Close 3 months after P2b data was $5.94
+287% gain over pre P2b -44% Pullback Down vs. high

So, what can we expect?

Assuming same stellar results for P3 as P2b, might exceed the P2b performance.

Using the recent $3.88 SP from 10/14/2019, gives following if it only mirrors P2b: 2x at release ($7.5 to $8), then up 5x to high ($19 to $20).

This matches current analyst price targets. Just took until end of year to get there.