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The question is: WHY isn't ACB one of them?
Cam & Terry took ACB as far as they could. But what ACB needs now is a Financial Genius.
Or maybe Cam & Terry realized they needed a Financial Genius last year when they hired Nelson?
Whatever the case, it was great to see that Canopy's Revenues were up for the quarter. That is a very bullish sign and this Sector has been in dire need of Bullish signs...
Canopy is up 22% today after their ER.
ACB was down after their ER.
So the take-away is: Not all Cannabis Companies are equal.
That is the best news I've heard in a long time.
I've been hesitant to pull the trigger and increase my position in some other Cannabis Stocks because ACB's Revenues have declined the past 2 quarters.
Canopy's Increased Revenues are actually a bullish sign for Aurora also.
I mean, it's not the Cannabis Market that is the problem.
It is ACB's Management that is the problem.
The question is: Have Cam & Terry dug too deep a hole?
ACB has new Management, and the Cannabis Market is strong, so we'll see...
I said it before and I'll say it again: I really don't think ACB will go out of business.
ACB will survive.
However, there is a good chance that ACB's Shareholders will get screwed in the "Survival" Process.
I posted about the possibility of a Reverse Stock Split about 6 months ago and the Long-Longs took my head off for even mentioning it.
But as ACB continues it's long, slow, decline - the possibility of a Reverse Split on ACB's Billion Shares is a real possibility.
Also, ACB might not go into Liquidation Bankruptcy. Instead, they could go into Restructuring Bankruptcy.
Under a Restructuring Bankruptcy - ACB will survive, but the shareholders will be left holding the bag.
But we'll have to wait and see how this story plays out.
If people in Canada start smoking tons of Aurora Weed - then maybe they can earn their way out of this.
But it is not looking good right now.
Yep.
Cam & Terry are sitting back on a beach drinking Margaritas with the MILLIONS $$$ they made from ACB.
I wish we all could screw-up our jobs and walk away with Millions.
While Cam & Terry are "retiring" in style - the shareholders are suffering.
There is an old joke in the Business World. It goes like this:
The outgoing CEO gave the incoming CEO 3 Envelopes.
The incoming CEO said: What are these 3 Envelopes for?
And the outgoing CEO said: If the going gets tough - open up the envelopes about 6 months apart.
So the incoming CEO took the 3 Envelopes.
Needless to say, the going got tough for the new CEO right away, so he opened the first Envelope.
The First Envelope said: Blame the outgoing CEO for EVERYTHING.
This worked for about 6 months, but then things were still bad. So the new CEO opened the 2nd Envelope.
The 2nd Envelope said: Restructure the Company.
So the new CEO did what the Envelope said. He restructured the Company.
But then 6 months later, things were still going bad. So the new CEO opened the 3rd and last Envelope.
The 3rd Envelope said: Prepare 3 Envelopes for the next CEO.
Here is the Earnings Call Transcript...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4323949-aurora-cannabis-acb-management-on-q2-2020-results-earnings-call-transcript?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=acb-aurora-cannabis-acb-management-on-q2-2020-results-earnings-call-transcript&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_content=link-2
Basically, what I heard was: We are going to SELL $200 Million more of ACB Stock At-The-Market (ATM) and then we are going to use that money to pay our Salaries and Bonuses.
Then when that $200 Million runs-out, we will say we "Did Our Best" and just blame the failure on Cam & Terry.
When you are the new CEO of ACB, you have two jobs to do:
1) Make sure you have an Iron-Clad Golden Parachute.
2) Blame "Previous Management" for everything.
Right now, Nelson is weighing all the options.
He knows the best way out of this mess is good old-fashion "Jewish Lightning" - but ACB is just too public and it will gather too much attention. So the risk is too high in this situation.
I mean, is it Nelson's fault that a HPS Grow Light got too close to the plants and caused Aurora Sky to go up in flames resulting in a $10 Billion Insurance Pay-Out?
LOL!!
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Jewish_lightning
Yep!
That is EXACTLY how the Long-Longs have been reading my posts since last March.
The Long-Longs are quick to point-out my typos and grammatical errors.
However, they forget to read what the post even says.
Funny, but true.
The Look-Out on the Titanic sent the Captain a message. The message said: "Iceburg Ahead Watch-Out!!".
And the Captain wrote back: "It is Iceberg, not Iceburg". LOL!!
Yep. I was saying that in my posts over the weekend.
ACB is a big player and ACB captures all of the headlines.
And ACB has brought the whole Cannabis Sector down with it's constant mis-management and bad news.
However, there are some really great, financially stable, Cannabis Companies out there and they are on sale.
Cron is one of them (mentioned in the link you posted). They have at least 2 years of cash in the bank and they are well positioned to weather the storm.
Yep. The shorts like it when you try to average down.
The shorts have the longs on a hook and they are playing you.
Just watch: When ACB has a green day - everyone on here will start cheering that the "bottom is in"!!! This will create a little bit of FOMO and the longs will buy and try and average down AGAIN.
But what is really happening is: The shorts are letting ACB run-up a little bit to create a higher price.
Why would the shorts want a higher price?
Answer: Because the Short Sellers are SELLERS. They want to short from the highest price they can.
Personally, I am WAITING until FANTASTIC NEWS is announced. Once the FANTASTIC NEWS is announced - I still won't buy right away because ACB will climb on the news - and then it will sell-off again.
But if the news is REALLY FANTASTIC - then it will impact ACB long-term. And the stock will go up STEADILY.
Trying to catch a Falling Knife never works. And yes, ACB is still falling.
Michael Singer, Executive Chairman and Interim CEO, Aurora Cannabis. "As announced last week, being a profitable cannabis company for our investors is the singular near-term focus for Aurora and we have begun to implement a business transformation plan where we intend to manage the business with a high degree of fiscal discipline."
I like the last sentence:
"We intend to manage the business with a high degree of fiscal discipline".
WTF have they been doing for the past 2 years?
Obviously, they weren't "managing the company with a high degree of fiscal discipline" - or ACB wouldn't be in this mess to begin with.
Like I said before: When Cam & Terry obtained their Cannabis License from Health Canada - they thought it was a LICENSE TO PRINT MONEY.
And in one sense - they were correct. Print shares, sell them, get money.
My GF was saying that Megan & Harry are giving-up the Royal Life and moving to Canada.
We had a big debate as to why they would do such a thing.
She says they are moving to Canada because Megan was not treated nicely by the other Royals.
But I know better...
Megan & Harry are really stoners (like Brad Pitt & Jennifer were).
So they are moving to Canada in order to be closer to the Great Canadian Cannabis - and they want to be able to get high 24/7 without the UK Paparazzi being around.
Megan & Harry are like - FREE Healthcare, GREAT weed...forget that Royal BS - Canada is the best place EVER!!
Personally, I think my argument makes the most sense...
Uh...it is really more like:
RICH Shorties!!
The $1.20's are coming. Just be patient. The short sellers aren't done shorting to the suckers willing to pay $1.47 yet.
If this were a war - here are the 2 sides:
Short Sellers - Extremely well funded, Hyped up for the kill, Trend is in their favor big time, Company is in severe trouble - LOTS of AMMO.
Longs - Retail Investors, not well funded (already averaged down 10 times looking for a bottom), Not much AMMO left.
The shorts are winning this battle with ACB.
In the long run, the shorts will lose the Cannabis War - but not before they make tons of MONEY $$$.
No more dilution?
Did they mention the remaining $200 Million shares being issued At The Market (ATM)??
There is an old saying. It goes like this:
I can grow great Cannabis in my closet...
But I can't make an IPhone 10 Pro in my closet...
Cresco Labs is opening a 5,000 Square Foot Store about 100 Yards from Wrigley Field.
Plus,
Wrigley Field just announced the Dead & Company are playing Wrigley for 2 Concerts in July...
Dead Concert + Legal Cannabis = Stoner HEAVEN.
Just saying...
Yes, ACB & the whole Cannabis Sector has tanked.
BUT, we are overlooking something very important here.
Has there EVER been a better time for a Cannabis Consumer to be ALIVE?
Personally, I never thought I would see the day when I could just walk into a store, pick from 20 Strains, buy it, and walk out.
Seriously, legalization is a Cannabis Users DREAM.
And, Cannabis Prices are falling!!
Falling Prices are bad for Cannabis Stocks - but GREAT NEWS if you're a Consumer!!
I just wish the Dispensary by my house stocked "Tropicana Cookies" - that is my favorite strain. But we'll get there soon enough.
If we can talk sense into at least ONE Long-Long - our job here is done. LOL!!
Uh, are you saying that Apple and Aurora are similar financially?
Aurora is in Peril. It has 2 months of cash left and the sales of its only product (Cannabis) are down quarter-to-quarter.
Also, ACB is further diluting it's shareholder with $200 Million of At-The-Market (ATM) stock sales.
ACB needs to EARN its way out of this mess - and with declining revenues - it doesn't look promising.
The $1.50 Shares from 4 Years ago are NOT the same as the $1.50 Shares today.
ACB has diluted it's shareholders by about 900% in the past 4 years.
Which means, 1 share today owns a LOT LESS of the Company than 1 share did 4 years ago.
That is the power of DILUTION.
Not sure what happened...sent the same post 4 times? Weird...Sorry for this mishap...
Vinny - What "Panic" are you talking about?
ACB's shares have been sliding steadily down for the past year.
If this is a panic - then it has been a very, very, very sloooooowwww panic.
In fact, the sell-off you are seeing now is just the CONTINUATION of what has been going on for almost a year.
Please read my posts concerning Short Selling from this weekend.
Once the Short Sellers are done selling to the suckers at $5...
Then they Short Sell to the suckers at $4...
Then $3...
Then $2...
Then $1.70...
Then $1.50...
So this "Panic Sell-Off" is nothing new...
Yep. I am from that generation.
I still love reading "High Times".
That magazine has all the latest smoking products, strains, trends, etc. - and the photography of the buds is amazing.
I actually do seek-out Cannabis Cup Winning Strains to try them out.
Cannabis will eventually have some kind of Rating System like the Wine Industry or Cigar Industry has.
"Cannabis Insider" or "Cannabis Enthusiast" or "Cannabis Connoisseur" will rate the 2020 Aurora Blue Dream a 95 out of 100. Or something like that...
Also, Colorado has "Group-Ons" for Cannabis Sales. This is all eventually coming...
I actually might buy 25 Shares also - just so I can track it on my Main Screen.
In all seriousness, ACB is really worth following (even if you don't have a position).
Why?
Aurora was an Industry Leader and they are always capturing the headlines.
And Aurora does influence how the rest of the Sector Trades.
However, unfortunately, ACB's influence on the Sector has not been favorable.
Someone asked me why I don't post much on OGI, APHA, Green Thumb, or the Cresco Message Boards.
The answer is: ACB is like binge watching Breaking Bad. I'm 1/2 way through and I really need to see how this story ends.
But I do read all of the other Message Boards for news.
Here is my brief summary of the other boards:
Canopy - $3 Billion in Cash - Big Corporate Partner - BORING.
APHA - Big Corporate Partner - 2 Years Supply of Cash - BORING.
OGI - Analyst Favorite - Profitable - BORING.
VFF - In Business 30 Years - Profitable - still BORING.
ACB - Widely held, Ousted CEO, Billionaire Consultant that is friends with Trump, Paid $3 Billion for a Customer List, Running out of Cash, no one knows what will happen next, like watching a Train Wreck in Slow Motion - NOT BORING!!
Following ACB is like watching Shameless on Showtime - it is so bad - I can't stop watching!!
Very True. Canopy & Aurora mass produce Cannabis in their Weed Factories.
Cannabis Consumers can be very picky or not picky at all - depending on the market conditions.
Back in the days before legalization - Cannabis Consumers basically bought whatever their guy had to sell and we were happy.
But now, Cannabis Consumers have choices. Lots & Lots of choices.
So Canopy and Aurora will need to compete with the small batch growers that truly bring the "ART" into Cannabis.
Keep an eye on the Cannabis Cup Winners.
Yep. Very Very True.
Aurora and Canopy can be equated to Budweiser and Miller Beer.
They are big players - no doubt about it.
But there are some awesome opportunities to be had in the "Craft" Cannabis Market (just like their have been in the Craft Beer Markets).
Canopy and Aurora have to play it safe and grow the strains everyone has heard of. Blue Dream, OG Kush, etc.
But the Craft Cannabis Growers can focus on the harder to grow strains like Girl Scout Cookies and Tropicana Cookies. (The Purples).
OGI and VFF are already profitable.
But the real race is on between Canopy and Aurora.
ACB Entry Points in the $1.50 Range are soooo tempting.
I mean, ACB hasn't traded in the $1.50 Range since way before Adult-Use Cannabis was legal in Canada.
But ACB has diluted it's shareholders by about 900% since then - so that needs to be factored in.
I am very Bullish on Cannabis over the long-term.
Cannabis is a wonderful plant and I LOVE every aspect of it.
However, the problem is: How to invest in Cannabis without losing your a@@.
Personally, I think the answer is to identify the "tightest" Cannabis Companies around that have the most "bullet proof" Balance Sheets.
When I see the CEO of a Cannabis Company driving his new Lambo that the Company leased for him/her - I know that is a sure sign to stay away.
Instead, I want Cannabis CEO's to be sweating every dime like it is their own money. Or better yet, I want CEO's with their OWN MONEY in the game.
This BS of the CEO running the Company into the ground and then pulling his/her Golden Parachute for $30 Million just doesn't bode well with my investment style.
Just venting...
Yep. Exactly. The Hype is over. The Cannabis Stocks now trade on Financial Fundamentals (as they should).
It's fun to follow this "Horse Race" though.
Who will post the highest Revenue Growth next quarter? Aurora? Canopy? OGI? APHA?
It's a horse race...place your bets.
Just take a look at the One-Year Graph.
I would say that the "Doom Forecasters" have been 100% correct so far.
But that is water under the bridge - the question is: Where does ACB go from here?
I wonder how much of today's movement is based on the fact that the next ER is 2 days away?
I wasn't expecting ACB to run-up to Earnings because they pretty much told us what they will be in the last Press Release (so not expecting too many surprises).
But they cold have stuffed all of the "Bad News" into the Press Release (it is better to bundle all the bad news into one Press Release instead of letting it trickle out piece meal) - so I'm not expecting any new news in the ER.
Amen to that Brother! Those are words to live and trade by.
I don't spend much time thinking about what already happened - I am 100% concerned about what is going to happen NEXT.
And once I figure-out the possibilities - then I weigh them based on the probability - then take action if the risk/reward is there.
I knew ACB was going down (that's why I sold at $10) - but I didn't have the guts at the time to short ACB. I still don't. Too many things can make Cannabis Stocks jump and I hate being on the wrong side of a short position.
For example: OGI jumped 46% after their last ER. It would have sucked to be a short on that one.
I dunno where the bottom is.
But that said, I have never had that much luck "bottom fishing". Everytime I think a stock has hit bottom - it goes lower on me.
So I don't "Bottom Fish". It's not worth the downside risk for me.
So instead of trying to catch the exact bottom (which never happens) - I'll jump in when there is a real "game changing" catalyst that will make ACB (and the whole sector) go higher.
Right now, I am not seeing very many Catalysts for ACB.
It might run-up to the ER - but I think we already know the Revenues will be $60M or so.
Yep. I totally agree.
Just look at how "mainstream" Cannabis has become in just the past 5 years - and then extrapolate that over the next 5 years.
Pot Smokers have been out-casts for a long time in our society. Historically, they are either portrayed as Cheech & Chong Hippies or Rasta Reggae like Bob Marley.
But rarely does our media show a white collar worker firing up a bong after a hard day of work. Or a woman using cannabis as a replacement for Midol.
If the Cannabis Lobby and Advertisers do their jobs - there will be a shift in what the public perceives the "Cannabis User" to look like.
If you watch TV Commercials - the goal is to show as many demographics using your product as possible. So you have the fireman drinking Budweiser, and then the friends drinking Budweiser after work, and then the people drinking Budweiser at the picnic, and so on...
Cannabis needs to do the same thing...
Either that - or the shorts were covering their short positions.
Not all "buys" are bullish.
Pot is the next beer.
However, the question is:
Do you stop by the 11,000 Square Foot Mega-Store at the Mall (with furnishings that would make an Apple Store jealous) - to pick-up a 6-Pack of Budweiser?
That is the question.
Yep.
And even if ACB survives 2020 - they will be the #4 Cannabis Company in terms of production output.
And everyone knows, ACB was #1.
So ACB is failing all kinds of ways.
This is just THEORY - but I can see how Nelson might be orchestrating a plan.
Cam & Terry's "retirement" seems all of a sudden. However, I'm thinking it was well planned.
There is NO DOUBT that if ACB is going to do a BIG DEAL with a huge cash infusion - that Cam & Terry would have to give up CONTROL.
So Terry "retires" but stays active in the company as Strategic Advisor. Sounds like "retirement" to me.
I'm thinking that the BIG COMPANY already has "their guy" picked-out as CEO to run the Company.
But this is BAD NEWS for the Long-Longs.
When the BIG DEAL happens - they will buy 51% of the Company for say $1 Billion.
That means that the existing shareholders will no longer own 100% of the Company. Essentially, after the BIG DEAL - they will only own 49% of the Company. Kind of dilution.
Anyway, if a Big Deal is announced, I might ride it up on the Hype - but then I'm selling ASAP. (At least that is the plan).