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In life, since the only guarantees are death and taxes, isn't this about defining a range of outcomes and their probabilities, and therefore deriving an expected SP, based on that. I'm ultra long, for full disclosure, since 2016, and just rooting for treatment and yes wealth, but have no idea, absolutely none, what's gonna happen tomorrow morning 8:30 am EST, and after that. Fingers Crossed.
100% agreed! This is crazy beyond belief. Obviously, FDA doesn't give approvals based on drug price, cause that's not its mandate. This is am epic failure of laws, regulation and common sense. Hopefully, congress shall decide to do something about it, asap.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/12/why-one-drug-is-responsible-for-half-the-hike-medicare-part-b-premiums.html
More craziness in pharma pricing. Hope AVXL brings some good answers by 2024, or sooner.
If this goes to the moon and there's some good, non emotional and logical reasons (ok fine, some emotional reasons too, such as Xena and others), recommend we all organize a get together, and while having that get together, donate as generously as we can to the cause of science and improving the lives of people who sre suffering from either disease or poverty or war or psychological effects or any other reason.
Amen
Good luck to everyone here.
May the force be with 2-73 and 3-71.
Best
Has there ever been discussion of a dado vs AF smackdown?! I would pay $$$ for it ... lol
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3103145/
agreed Xena ... and NIH clearly spells out what an adaptive trial can do, which is pretty broad in terms of data driven flexibility in decision making, along the way.
GLTA
Thanks Xena and also thanks for your response on today's price action. Who needs crooked wall street analysts and brokers when we have individual investors such as yourself and others on this board.
Xena, what say you on today's action?!
Its a significant change in institutional ownership of AVXL from <5% in 2014 to now over 22% two plus years later. While being no guarantee of any one specific outcome, this does raise the confidence under the assumption that institutions have greater insights into individual equities than retail investors due to their resources and unfortunately insider connections, albeit again with no guarantees (since one only has to look at enron / worldcom) ... cheers ... go avxl longs
PK/PD -> from Anavex IR:
Thank you for your follow-up email.
Anavex has not provided any guidance as to when the PK/PD data will be available.
As always, please be assured that the company will continue to publish news and/or filings as material developments warrant.
Please do not hesitate to contact our office if we can be of further assistance.
On behalf of Anavex Life Sciences Corp.,
Investor Relations
Toll Free (North America): 1 (866) 505-2895
Outside North America: +1 (416) 489 0092
Fax: +1 (416) 352 5239
ir@anavex.com
I also posited another question back then naturally to Anavex IR about ETA of that PK/PD data. Let's see if we get a bite on that query.
Agreed. Its a wait and see game at this point.
PHASE 2/3 for 2-73:
Per Anavex IR:
Thank you for your email and continued support of Anavex Life Sciences Corp. (Nasdaq: AVXL).
Anavex is funded for clinical outcome. The larger Phase 2/3 Alzheimer’s trial will start after Phase 2a PK/PD data is available. The reason for this is that this data is relevant for key parameters of subsequent trials like the larger Phase 2/3 Alzheimer’s trial.
Please do not hesitate to contact our office if we can be of further assistance.
On behalf of Anavex Life Sciences Corp.,
Investor Relations
Toll Free (North America): 1 (866) 505-2895
Outside North America: +1 (416) 489 0092
Fax: +1 (416) 352 5239
ir@anavex.com
Awesome as always dado.
From Anavex IR email from today, "Anavex has not provided a timeline for starting its Phase 2/3 trial of ANAVEX 2-73 except to say 2017."
So, I suppose there's some light at the end of this tunnel.
Lol ... great points ... esp the "badgering ladies" ... ha ha ha
Does anyone have a link that clearly shows that Anavex had stated they would share the 15 month data plus PK/PD at the Vienna conf? I have written to their IR dept as well. Of course, all this becomes moot if they announce a Phase 2/3 trial commencement but until such time, that's what we have.
Investor conferences say it all. A CEO and and its organization doesn't just randomly decide to do this many investor conferences without a certain level of confidence about whats coming next. Each investor conference is an opportunity to sell the vision, the story and the value of avxl. The good doc is doing just that cause he's paving the road for what he strongly believes is about to happen in the next few months and he wants the "best money" to chase him when it does because it will once the word and actual trial announcements are out there.
At $50 a share will have bourbon with cornflakes every day this year
...
At $500 a share will have that everyday for the rest of my life
Thanks. btw, Dr. Tangui Maurice is listed as a scientific advisor for Anavex.
Thank you MyCroft. Great analysis and explanations. People like you is why this board rocks. Go avxl longs.
Science and Facts do matter! Just saw this post from dado ... more than worth bringing it into the present day conversation after Monday's events!
Agreed, the details were spot on and the good doctor's grasp on the information was truly impressive. Someone posted that the way he articulated and disseminated such highly complex information in very relatable, easy to understand terms was remarkable. The applause from the audience said it all. Stock price truly went up today entirely based on the good doc's words and his vision of what this could become.
The presentation was terrific, with one standout being that Dr. Missling came across as genuine and sincere vs. some slick wall street type. His various imperfections including mincing words since english is clearly not his first language and the way he demonstrated his understanding and his compassion were simply great. At the same time, he subtly, almost casually, nonchalantly showed his financial and market acumen about the opportunity in front of Anavex. All in all, a great way to set the stage for these next 12-18 months. May the better, may I say, the only, cure win. May the long suffering Alz/PD/Retts patients win. May the good doctor win. Go avxl.
Thank you tradeherpete. At some point, in the end, our humanity has to trump just pure profit motives ... sustainable relationships based on unconditional love are a cornerstone of who we are as human beings and we all need to find ways to continue that ... fortunately there's enough people like that to give us optimism and hope. And yes, maybe the promise of some day reversing or at least significantly stabilizing this type of a debilitating condition through the likes of Anavex...
The elderly man in his eighties, hurried to his doctor appointment at 8am. He wanted to finish quickly because he must be somewhere by nine. The doctor asked what the next appointment was.
He proudly said that at 9am every morning he is at the hospital to eat breakfast with his wife. The doctor asked in what condition his wife was in.
The man said that his wife had Alzheimers disease, and for the past 5 years she hasn't known who he is. The doctor was surprised and asked the man why he continues to go faithfully if she has no idea who he is....the old man replied, "because I still know who she is" ...
It only took the human race couple of milion years to start believing that the earth is round. Alzheimers is at a stage similar to where cancer was maybe 25 years ago. No one thought then that anything could be done. People will start believing the Anavex story in due course when the trials commence. We all just have to have a long term horizon for sonething like this, even though I and others would LOVE to get to the $30B MC and $1000 SP tomorrow. Cheers.
Dear McMagyar,
Can you please post a link to Anavex poster on 3/31 at the Vienna AD/PLACED conference? I simply cannot find it (maybe I'm missing something).
Many thanks in advance.
About PIII 2-73 TRIALS and funding for continued operations, per their IR:
Thank you for your email and support of Anavex Life Sciences Corp. (Nasdaq: AVXL).
Anavex has stated that it is planning a larger Phase 2/3 trial of ANAVEX 2-73 however the timing, location(s), enrollment criteria and other details have not been announced.
To remain up to date, we suggest subscribing to the Anavex email list if you have not already done so, which you can do by completing the form at the bottom right corner of any page on the company's website: www.anavex.com.
Contact information for recruitment sites as well as enrollment and exclusion criteria will be made available via www.clinicaltrials.gov in the future.
Anavex reported cash and cash equivalents of $17.3 million as of December 12, 2016. During the conference call that same day, Dr. Missling said that the company’s cash position will allow it to run for approximately two years without requiring additional cash.
Please do not hesitate to contact our office if we can be of further assistance.
On behalf of Anavex Life Sciences Corp.,
Investor Relations
Toll Free (North America): 1 (866) 505-2895
Outside North America: +1 (416) 489 0092
Fax: +1 (416) 352 5239
ir@anavex.com
About the 13th Alzheimers and Parkinson's conf in Vienna end of March, per their IR:
Anavex has not announced participation in the 13th International Conference on Alzheimer’s & Parkinson’s Diseases.
Please note that the company has an events page where updates are posted as they are announced: http://www.anavex.com/2016/?post_type=events.
Please do not hesitate to contact our office if we can be of further assistance.
On behalf of Anavex Life Sciences Corp.,
Investor Relations
Toll Free (North America): 1 (866) 505-2895
Outside North America: +1 (416) 489 0092
Fax: +1 (416) 352 5239
ir@anavex.com
If the good Dr. Missling can magically get the next big trial going without a partnership, then he's truly earned more than his chops. Guess we'll all just have to wait and see. Even though I'm a bit torn about it as I am a libertarian at heart (free market competition, rooting for the small guy to win and all that), I do sincerely hope though that a pnership is secured soon pre trial as it would lend greater credibility, connections, and reduce risk, even at the cost of some level of reduction in the final reward. Ultimately, no matter what happens, money and greed aside, hope that we significantly make a dent in the fight for dignity with some type of slow down/cure for ALZ, as the human race needs desperately needs it (my own grandfather died at a young age from either ALZ or Parkinsons, root cause not known as it was somewhat in the old days).
If P2/P3 had already underway for a while with initial results known and positive, then yeah Anavex would command the 75-100 multiple over the current $4 price, which would translate to a $10B market cap. However, absent that, to entice a rational investor, either Anavex scrounges up $$$ from somewhere (and assumes a lot of risk) or partners with BP for a 20-25 multiple (reducing risk and the associated reward), hence the $3-4B market cap, in the short term. It's a game of Shark Tank my friends and fellow avxl longs, just on a much bigger scale and consequence.
MC, maybe anavex IR can clarify your working hypothesis? Every time I've written to them, they have always replied back with a proper response. Cheers.
AVXL patent info, straight from anavex IR email ... feel free to dissect
Thank you for your email and interest in Anavex Life Sciences Corp. (Nasdaq: AVXL).
As per its latest annual report, Anavex holds ownership or exclusive rights to three issued U.S. patent and eight U.S. patent applications with various international counterpart applications, all of which relate to drug candidates and methods associated therewith. These include:
Issued US Patents
U.S. 9,180,106 to Vamvakides “Sigma receptors ligands with anti-apoptotic and/or pro-apoptotic properties, over cellular mechanisms, exhibiting prototypical cytoprotective and also anti-cancer activity.”
U.S. 8,673,931 to Fisher et al. “Bicyclic heterocyclic spiro compounds.”
U.S. 9,034,891 to Fisher et al. “Bicyclic heterocyclic spiro compounds.”
Pending (published) US/PCT patent applications
USSN 13/777,471, to Vamvakides, “Sigma Receptors Ligands With Anti-Apoptotic And/Or Pro-Apoptotic Properties, Over Cellular Mechanisms, Exhibiting Prototypical Cytoprotective And Also Anti-Cancer Activity.”
USSN 13/940352 to Vamvakides et al., “Anavex2-73 And Certain Anticholinesterase Inhibitors Composition And Method For Neuroprotection.”
PCT/US2015/056172 to Missling et al., “A19-144, A2-73 and Certain Anticholinesterase Inhibitor Compositions and Method for Anti-Seizure Therapy.”
Please do not hesitate to contact our office if we can be of further assistance.
On behalf of Anavex Life Sciences Corp.,
Investor Relations
Toll Free (North America): 1 (866) 505-2895
Outside North America: +1 (416) 489 0092
Fax: +1 (416) 352 5239
Thanks for the research. My valuation might have been a little more on the optimistic side, I can admit to that (only in their dreams can men be truly free, was always thus, will always thus be ... dead Poets Society:) ). Ultimately will all depend on the expectations of P3 trial results, patents, discounted cash flow analysis and so on. Waiting to see how 2017 goes and what the good doc brings...keeping fingers crossed...
Yes, $3B was an arbitrary, best guess scenario of what big pharma might value Anavex at today, given current status of things, risk reward ratios and so on. If 2-73 becomes new AlZ SOC, then $3B becomes $30B or moread and the big pharma Finance team looks like geniuses with a 10 fold ROI (and we all retire rich). However, if it doesn't, then big pharma only loses a few hundred million $$, no big deal for someone that big. Hence my $3B valuation as things stand today. That could change tomorrow and could certainly change during P2/P3 trial, question is what's the economic risk someone is willing to put in today ... Whats the value of that call option... My best guess for that is a $3B MC ... cheers
39.61 million shares outstanding, at $4.10 each, giving current MC of $161M. At $3B MC, each share would be worth approx $75 (($3B ÷ $161M) × $4.10), assuming no further issuance of shares. Of course, in reality, big pharma would want greater stake and greater control, maybe $750M for 25% stake. Someone please dbl check this math :) ... go longs...
If big pharma gets excited and decides to buy a 5% stake with $150M (assuming AVXL needs/ wants that pnership + cash infusion for P2/P3 trial costs), that would value AVXL at $3B, making current shares worth $75 (approx). Let's see how next several months go.
Thank you for taking the time to respond and for the education.
Awesome posts here. Thank you all for the long term faith in the Anavex science. My grandfather and a grand uncle both suffered and passed away from an early onset of Alzheimers so have a vested intetest in this. Will donate a good sum to charity if avxl goes to $500, which in theory it could after FDA approval of 2-73, given the potential market.
Posting a technical question here, does anyone know why the Jan 18 2019 $5 call options have not moved in price at all, even after the sharp move in the underlying price of an avxl stock? Thank you.