UGAZ once again proving itself to be the best etf ever for shorting.

Congrats to any and all who have profited from the crazy volatility in NG. Too much risk for me.

UGAZ is like the burn barrel I have in the back yard. Whenever I accumulate too much cash I throw some in and set it on fire. It makes a pretty flame.

UGAZ = cash burner. Of course we all know that.

Toe out of the water. I think there’s plenty of room to go lower. I’m taking my 4%.

toe in the water

LABU has made a top. Inflows into biotech has slowed a lot in the past few days. The market is dragging biotech higher but valuations are not helped much by improving economic outlook. That means it’s time to turn my attention to LABD. more specifically the short term swings and scalps that occur when this etf is in consolidation.

Sold my dgaz

I dipped my toe in Dgaz today.

The tug of war between record production and winter weather is currently being won by winter.

HFIR reported a new record for weekly US production at 95.7bcf

On the other hand winter temps are early in eastern US.
The best free winter info comes from Dr Judah Cohen of MIT. He posts a blog every 8- 10 days where he discusses factors driving winter weather for the short and long term. Its pretty dense reading. Here's a link so his most recent blog:
https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

The short version of his blog says there's a chance that cold weather could persist longer.

That ride can get pretty hairy. During spasmodic episodes of extreme volatility I have witnessed DGAZ not performing as advertised. The automatic buying and selling of underlying securities could not keep up with NG price action.

Dec NG gaps to 2.79 at start of comex trading Sunday night. January contract to 2.87. DGAZ starts roll into Jan contract on Friday. Last chance for contango trade. Weather forecast is saying cold in eastern US is gonna stay a while.

The widow maker is causing heart palpitations for bears.

I sold the remainder of my D when it popped over 150 this morning. I'm still kinda bearish.

I sold another 100 shares of D when it popped over 146. Im still holding 30% of my original position. Im still modestly bearish on ng. I hope the threat of early November cold snap gains traction so i can get a lower reentry in D. I dont think real cold weather is in the forecasts... yet.

NOAA posted their regular Friday experimental 3-4 week outlook. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif

Dr Judah Cohen of MIT and AER updated his winter weather blog on Monday. He said Winter is still yet to be defined but early November cold shot looks to be a head fake. However several factors seem to point weakly to a winter with multiple cold shots in the east, where it matters most.

I am still bearish but just barely. All it takes is one cold forecast to turn NG around. I sold about 60% of my D at 151.

Agreed. Next week’s injection is gonna be a beast.
There isn’t any meaningful cold weather in sight.
In light of chronic loose supply, big money already knows the odds of shortage this winter are real slim.
COT is still bearish.
It could get real ugly. NGF20 at 2.00 ugly.
Bulls are fighting to save 2.20 support but the fundamentals aren’t there.

Im still bearish.

NG has been consolidating since Oct 3.
Cold weather forecast could send NG up hard.
Cold weather showed up in early November 2018 and 2017. If it doesn't show up until late November (like 2016) it could get ugly.
Other factors that are currently affecting price action are:
1. Technical analysis which pretty uniformly shows NG in oversold territory just above major support.
2. Production oversupply which shows no sign of abating.

A couple of bearish insignificant factors that are nonetheless interesting are the
worldwide glut of LNG as reported by the Hellenic Shipping News, and the recent decrease of NG power burn in Texas due to increased renewable energy supply.

Overall I am still bearish NG

D started its roll into the Dec contract today. Spread is currently 20 cents. If EMCWF doesn't show cold snap soon contract could go down.

I'm still holding some.

Yes that’s article to which I was referring.

From investopedia, “animal spirits describe the psychological and emotional factors that drive investors to take action when faced with high levels of volatility in the capital markets”

That’s what happened in winter of 2016 to help drive NG to $1.61

HFIR said animal spirits are about to take over NG market.
1. If the contract spreads stay as they are
2. and NGF20 drops to 2.20
DGAZ could go +200

It could get worse for NG than the above scenario. If winter weather is late to arrive and supply stays super loose like it is now then we could see a repeat of winter 2016 pricing. Fear and panic could drive NG below 2.00 and DGAZ goes full tilt 2016.

I currently own DGAZ

Closed my labd swing this morning. I didn’t like the chart and it looks like the markets are ready to scale a wall of fear again. I took a 3.5% gain. Risk management is the name of the game. I’ll be looking to buy again but I wanna get past this morning.

I am in the middle of a swing trade on labd. Entry was based on a theory I have about the average number of sessions that an inverse instrument will drop before making a rebound. I call it the rule of 9.
Count the number of sessions (including the last peak session) to the lowest session price (including the lowest session) and you get a mean of nine. It can be shorter or longer to the lowest day but nine is the mean.
I start loading on day 8 or so if the chart looks good and add more during the following days as the chart drops more or pops and then falls back close to the low. A good example of this was two days ago when I already had about 4000 shares; it popped to 17.70ish and fell back down to 17.00 where I loaded my final 2000 shares.

Of course the opposite is true that one could go long by swinging the 9 session rises in an appreciating etf (like labu) but I think the markets are gonna have trouble at current resistance.

The trade is currently up 7%. It could all go to **** tomorrow, but my target is labd =19.60. I hope you find this interesting. As always this is not investment advice.

If I was a WTI E&P I would hedge the **** out of my current production at today’s prices. WTI is in its happy place at price of +$60. It may be a bit overbought but not enough to consider shorting it. As always, just my opinion.

The typical 9 session decline includes the peak session at the beginning of the decline. The nearer the market is to a peak the better the chances of a good recovery in the short etf.

Short etfs that track the market like labd, uvxy etc follow the ‘rule of nine’. When the market is going up these etfs will decline from a top to a bottom in roughly nine sessions. If they are coming off a double top then it may be a couple of more sessions. Currently these etfs are on day nine of decline. The bottom may have been friday. It might be tomorrow. Point is that I believe it is close to a short term bottom. I am currently in labd for about 2000 shares and i am looking to add more if it drops another 5 percent or I will try to get a buy in if it takes off as well.

CNN’s fear and greed index is now at 74. Highest it’s been since last October. Markets are getting frothy.

I was hoping D would really take off, but we both made a little cash on the deal. I think NG has a bearish bias right now but I’m not jumping in again unless NG goes over 2.86. I may not revisit natty for quite a while

I finally sold my dgaz swing trade for 96.8. I could have flipped it three times in the time i held it. Pretty stupid to look a decent gain square in the ddeye and let greed get the better of me. Anyway the deal is done and I made 8% over two weeks.

It looks like a slow motion short squeeze to me. That’s the way I interpret the phrase “market grinding higher”
I would like to see an exhaustive candle.

It sure seems like its climbing a wall of fear.

Could be a good day to pick up labd/uvxy. 2800 looks too tough to climb.
Oil however might be going to three month high

I’m still around. I am working on a dgaz swing. In fairly big at 88. I will sell when NG drops into 2.60s. Hopefully by Friday. After that I have an eye on short oil, labd, gold miners up or down, uvxy. The usual suspects.

Picked up dgaz cheap this morn. Hoping to flip it again. Perhaps I am going to the well one too many times. I’ll know by Monday.

Starter in dgaz this morning. Wanted to buy more but I need to stick to the plan. I closed uwt swing and dgaz flip yesterday. $$ on both.

Picked up dgaz yesterday late. Still holding. There is too much gas and it is getting close to shoulder season.

My UWT swing is underway (thanks to Trump’s text). Let’s see what happens tomorrow. KSA is not importing any oil to speak of to the US in order to drop US storage. They really want to drive up Brent. UWT could revisit 16+ if tomorrow’s storage shows a drop. If I was a tight oil E&P I’d send the Saudis a nice thank you gift!

That is the question. The triple top from last oct-dec got tested today. If es makes a break above then it could go to 2860. There have been 9 consecutive bull bars on the weekly. That is really rare. I think es gets rejected, but I wouldn’t want to be catching a uvxy knife. I think you are smart to take your daily gain and revisit tomorrow.

I picked up a bit more uwt at 14.44. Seems like that’s close to the bottom for now. WTI might go sub 54.50. Finally a shoutout to potus for tweeting oil lower and providing this buy opportunity.

Started a position in uwt at 14.88. I look to add more if wti hits 55.

SnP is being pressured by a number of bearish technicals. It’s also being supported by the potential of a settlement in the trade talks between US and China. I think there might be a little profit taking during the next couple of sessions, but all it takes is a positive tweet to push the market higher.

Today looks like a yawn. Let’s see what the fomc meeting brings.