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Interesting piece of info.. Loblaws (owners of shoppers drug mart) had the largest $ value of insider trading today on the TSX at $5.5mm.. Could be speculation or the big big guys (Galen Weston & co.) have the early scoop. Make what you will from it..
The sad thing is all the cannabis "activists" we're celebrating after the Allard decision.. Some even taking a jab at CGC showing a live stream of its share price as it tumbled from 3.20 to 2.80 immediately after the news. I think they 'won' more than they bargained for. Should be a bitter fight coming up.
Agree 100%.. it's hard to base the Bed deal off of their assumed revenue contributions right now. But I think we can say fairly confidently that if CGC decided to sell Bedrocan today they would get a whole lot more money than they paid for it. Plus Bed's reputation alone (especially among the medical community) is worth the weight in gold. Shrewd business that may not monetarily materialize itself for a few Q's to a few years.
You are probably one of the first 10 people ever to have ordered oil from Tweed!! Heres to the millions more.
Pretty good explanation of the CC.. I'd like to expand on what you've said. Seems lie Bruce & co. are very much in the works of securing an uplifting to TSX.. Mentioned that they do not meet the conditions right now (I think it was lack of profitability or something) but could be exempt from that if they can submit their accounting and fins earlier (TSX requires report 15 days or so sooner than TSX-v).. This would be a huge boost as it would allow large institutions and funds to invest. Secondly on dispensaries I think they will be coming to a pharmacy near you soon! Bruce answered a question about shoppers drug mart selling med mj and he said that the owners (loblaws aka the Weston family) is as close to royalty as you can get in this country.. Large lobbying power. Also the Conservatives had pharmacies as the distributors in their original draft of the MMPR but it was revised out in later drafts. The Allard decision may just be what was needed to clean everything up.
The MMAR is gone for good.. The injunction delayed this, but the ruling today has given HC 6 months to roll out MMPR 2.0.. This does not mean the MMAR is in full effect again for good. It just gives HC time to do this right after which point both MMAR and MMPR will most likely be blended.. I foresee two tiered system with designated home growers and LP,. Probably will include dispensaries and maybe insurance coverage. But make no mistake, there will be much more regulation on the home growers side of things.. The key I think here is that med mj will be going into the hands of HC approved patients only.. And not the thousands of people without proper documentation that the dispensaries supply under the guise of MMAR supplied weed. I have a feeling that this is a win the home growers and dispensaries may not want to have won when sells said and done. You (awesomesound) should be okay to grow your own though so it's a win for you, just the profiteers of the MMAR are toast. On a side note my predictions for fins tomorrow are $3.6mill revenue and within 10% either side of being cf+
The court hearing was vindicated under conservative power, with Conservative politicians leading the way.. Let's hope the Libs will get this right.. I'd like to see store fronts, and the ability that once you are a registered patient you can shop at any LP.
I agree to an extent, the only thing is these are really sick people in some cases who don't have the physical ability to grow their own. But you give some people an inch and they take it a mile. In Vancouver among other places the dispensaries are supplying not just the MMAR and MMPR but people without health Canada approval for med mj who just have a Ritalin prescription and sometimes nothing at all.
http://cas-cdc-www02.cas-satj.gc.ca/rss/T-2030-13%20reasons%2024-02-2016%20%28ENG%29.pdf
If anyone wants to read it.. can't take my eyes off the chart long enough right now though.
Thanks! Ill be checking that, and listening to this stream.
https://twitter.com/KirkTousaw
This is where I'll be looking for the response, may be better places though.. Still looking
Thanks, good to keep into consideration. Oils news expected today @ 12pm as per Tweeds twitter account.
Are we expecting the chart to smiley faces like we saw after the elections.. Big gap up, mid day consolidation, strong close. Or do we expect it to take off and not look back? Thanks, just looking to buy more but unsure if I should buy in the bell.
And if it goes against Allard, the dispensaries will loose their only source of semi legitimacy.
I can cherry pick quotes too.
"Obtained under access to information laws, the heavily-redacted briefing lays out priorities for Wilson-Raybould’s first 100 days in office."
I don't think anybody here expects legalization to happen in the first 100 days that the liberals are in office. The fact that it is even mentioned in there shows some intent to get this moving. Positive information written through a negative lens. Read what you will from it.
Let's not forget the Peace Naturals lawsuit.. Filed Nov 26 2015. That could be a potential $12m windfall, or a takeover that includes a license to produce and sell dried cannabis AND oil.
Symbol Report Date Volume Change Shares Issued % Float
V : CGC 2016-01-31 277,500 -20,472 100,800,174 0.28
V : CGC 2016-01-15 297,972 43,093 100,753,674 0.30
V : CGC 2015-12-31 254,879 -17,121 100,745,924 0.25
V : CGC 2015-12-15 272,000 -207,000 100,643,853 0.27
V : CGC 2015-11-30 479,000 -2,884,200 93,235,881 0.51
V : CGC 2015-11-15 3,363,200 1,164,889 91,468,573 3.68
V : CGC 2015-10-31 2,198,311 2,111,211 91,002,334 2.42
V : CGC 2015-10-15 87,100 15,000 90,003,400 0.10
V : CGC 2015-09-30 72,100 72,100 86,651,623 0.08
Hard to say, I think Q ending Dec. 31 will give us a good indication of what Bedrocan is bringing in, as well as how many weeks of oil sales will be present on that Q ending March. If oils come this week and Bedrocan can give us $500k-1m then we will be close. Maybe between $4.5-5m for the quarter. If we can get $3.5m for this upcoming quarter I will be happy. Would show continually strong q over q growth which is the main thing.. Just hope that general market sentiment doesn't drag this down.
The numbers you are using won't be on the current quarter financials. For October 1 - December 31 I have an average of 200 orders per day, which is ~18,400 orders for the quarter. That is just tweeds. If the average order is $175 then this quarter should have results around $3.2mm plus whatever Bedrocan brings in. I'd say we are looking at another 40% sequential growth. As for next quarter I have us at ~225 orders per day (63570 - 56193 = 7,557 orders over 32 or 33 days), but by the end of the Q that should increase.
It just seems strange that the workshop is how to turn 'dried cannabis' into topical medicine. My understanding is with topical we should read non-smoking, could be ingestion or lotion. So they are going to have to turn the cannabis into an oil, butter, etc.. for it to be effective. So why use dried cannabis only to turn it into an oil. Just curious and thought I would bring this point up, still have huge faith in the management to guide the ship. If I had to guess I would say (hope) that the oils will be out before the workshop and the workshop is meant to promote the oil line. That they are using dried cannabis as a way to show that it isn't the easiest process to turn it into an oil at your home and to get people to buy the oils instead to make these 'topical' medicines. Just a wild guess.
From Tweed website
****Come talk about cannabis lotion.
It's sooooo topical.
Join us in Toronto on February 20th from 2-4 pm for our workshop on the process of turning dried cannabis to a topical medicine. Free muffin mix, base topical lotion, and infusion recipes! Seating is limited and RSVP is required. 416-253-1021*****
Perhaps I am reading too much into this and it could be unrelated, but is this a sign that oils may not be coming as soon as "early February" and they are compensating by using this workshop to allow patients to make their own lotions? Would think it be easier to make a lotion out of oils then dried cannabis.. or maybe this is targeted at patients not registered with CGC as a way to expand their patient base.
Was in a few news sources today in Toronto (CP24, Metro etc) about how the government could potentially receive $5bn a year in tax from legalization. Just thought I would provide where they got the reference from. Personally, I think they are overestimating because they assume rec mj will be sin taxed like alcohol/tobacco as high as 50%. What they seem to forget is that it will most likely be imperative that the legal market will need cheaper than the black market to kill it's demand. But the numbers are unimportant right now... all this media coverage can only be a good sign, like the liberals are gauging public opinion on the matter and getting people used to the idea.
http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/eijan16.pdf
*from another board, pp 7-8*
There are the activists who we should thank, who have helped open the door to medical mj, and paved the way to legalization. All they want is the freedom and legal rights to consume something they enjoy. The rest of these clowns use the guise of an "activists" claiming to "free the sacred herb", when really they are just capitalists trying to make a buck. Yes there is still work to do. To make sure the promise of legalization is fulfilled, that there is a variety of products, and possibly to see that an individual can grow their own mj. But these dispensaries are in it for the $$, yet try to pretend they are activists. If someone really cared about the sacred herb they would understand that quality control through regulation is the proper course to follow, perhaps mixed with home production for personal consumption only. My guess is that many in the dispensary scene have no other skills to offer society, or their legal alternative to employment is much less fruitful so they are fighting the system to keep their pre-Trudeau status quo . And as of right now winning (for the short term)
What he/she is referring to is a document from 2013. Not too relevant today. They haven't even announced who will be on the joint task force yet.
Thanks for clarifying.. So Cgc is only one of the two that are considered actively traded.
Got this from another board, any significance of CGC being listed on IIROC spread sheet today.. Only 2 tsx-v companies listed.. Uplisting?
http://www.iiroc.ca/Documents/2016/8a66f168-cd48-4e4d-8006-1e72365dd2e7_en.csv
Poor article, nowhere does it quote Trudeau saying such things. Taken out of context. There may be issues with the UN treaties, but Trudeau does not publicly acknowledge this. If there are verified quotes from the man himself, then we may have a problem.
What happened to Cannimed (Prairie Plant Systems) threatening to sell oils in 2 weeks?? Also, it looks like Peace Naturals sold out of its $240 bottles of oil... Good news for the sector
Not too sure if this has been posted yet. Nothing new but good coverage to a wide audience.
http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21684186-converting-medical-marijuana-industry-recreational-one-will-not-be-easy-justin-trudeau
Unfortunately BC coastal health and Vancouver city council will have minimal to zero say on regulations. Will be federally restricted (To LPs most likely), provincially regulated (of LP mj)... Once again taking quotes out of context to attempt to prove your delusional utopia. If they're not stocking LP weed they will be packing their bags, and that's if they're lucky enough to stay open and be allowed the privilege of selling LP mj.
Let's not forget that we will have a full quarter of Bedrocan sales for the first time.
First I should think that Health Canada would have to recognize MJ as a medicine. I feel that they have not recognized it as medicinal because cash strapped provinces and private insurance companies don't want to be forced to cover it. That lack of endorsement may be a reason why many physicians may be reluctant to prescribe med mj. There is still a stigma that medical 'marihuana' is a legal loophole for those who just want to get high.
25 million ppl over 18+
50% will at least try
Of those 50%
25% once and say it's not for me= 3.125m ppl x 1g x $5g = $15.5m for first year only
25% use it 6 times a year = 3.125m ppl x 6g = $78m
25% use it every weekend = 3.125m x 52g = $806m
25% use half quarter every week = 3.125m x 52 x weeks 3.5g = $2.8billion
= 3.684billion $ a year.. Say black market retains 20% just to be conservative = $2.95b
+
16mil tourist 25% try it 1g @ $5 =$20
+ 500k 'pot' tourist all buy 7g @5$ = $17.5m
I'd say it's closer to $3billion, possibly less until people's habits are broken. Either way that's 600 million grams, so until we can get close to legally producing that I'd say be cautious with when anyone thinks legalization will occur. Still very bullish on this stock though.
Although I do think it will be higher than 43% that try it, the key difference for me between mj consumption and alcohol consumption is that a lot of people will have a glass of wine or beer with a meal, they enjoy the taste and get no real 'buzz' off of it, whereas most can't smoke half gram spliff and not be under the influence. A beer at lunch break won't effect you as much as a spliff at lunch break. Not exclusively but alcohol is for the enjoyment of taste whereas mj is for the altered state of mind
A very good point. I think it's safe to assume LPs will be supply the market. They may relax the laws to encourage more LPs, a micro-brewer of LPs. But these store fronts are going to have to buy at a cost that will enable them to cover their costs, add tax on it, and still sell it than less then $8-10 a gram as it has to be cheaper or at least comparable to black market prices to drive the demand for legal weed. Just my opinion.
15m x $6g = 90mil @ 25% is 22.5million$.. I think you have over estimated the number of people, first there are only 25million people over 18 years old , second I don't think all customers will be equal. Of those 25 million some will never touch it, some will try it once or twice a year, some will smoke on the weekends only, some will be daily or near daily users, and let's not forget about tourists. Still a potential multi billion dollar industry though. Let's not forget the black market will retain some share of the pie.. How much depends on how well it is enforced.
That's the problem with opening a LP in BC.. Pretty much the only place in the country where dispensaries are widespread and tolerated. A natural disadvantage from the beginning? And no LP wants to be known as the one who shut down/tried to shut down the dispensaries.. Public relations suicide for if the dispensaries are gone and the need to go to a LP they sure aren't going to go to the one who shut them down.