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FWIW, on May 2nd, Peter Lawson with Barclays reaffirmed their buy rating for Iovance with a price target of $22.00.
The average price target from 12 analysts currently sits at $26.00 with a low target of $19.00 and a high target of $34.00.
GMH, I wouldn't be surprised if expenses go up a bit with the ramp-up, but revenue growth should balance that and maybe prove to be more positive. Did you have thoughts on foreign market updates?
No problem, reverend, I never thought you were being preachy. I was the one who pulled a bit of Proverbs 27:17 into my last post.
I fully agree that having a buyout as the exit strategy (unless the ink is already dry on the agreement and it's cleared all hurdles with the courts) is not a good strategy. I even have a percentage number of shares that I will immediately sell should a buyout be announced just in case it drags or fails. Certainly, we can include a buyout assumption in establishing a target price, albeit, I think it should be a small factor. The reason being that in this sector of small to medium start-up biotechs with the goods have a pattern of going that route.
As always, thanks for sharing.
GMH, I'm certainly not trying to put words in your mouth, so if that's how it came across, forgive me for that. One point that you did make (or so I assume) and that I whole heartedly agree with is the need to have an exit strategy as part of an overall investing strategy. But in today's world, I'm a dinosaur. From articles I've read, anywhere from 60-80% of stock trades are done with A.I. Algorithmic trading or quantitative trading makes self directed investors like me look absolutely prehistoric. Being of European descent, my Neanderthal DNA is likely high. Still, a good plan should define all parameters and that definitely should include an exit strategy, even though it's going to be different for each investor.
When chatting on a message board, I tend to gloss over many things that I take for granted and that I assume others would be thinking as well, but as you've pointed out, it's not always clear what's being said because we all come from different perspectives when looking at single stocks and individual companies (or most anything in life). We all have our own take on the 'facts" and so we try to strategize accordingly. I do agree with the point that I believe you've made before that it's in the sharing of info on these boards and through other sources that we can refine and improve our knowledge base and thereby increase our investing success.
So long as we're open to being challenged in what we say, I believe this shared experience is beneficial. Many have lost sight of the value of cooperative open debate and discussion, so to all of you here, thanks for sharing your thoughts. Without getting too biblical, iron sharpens iron...
Badgerkid
GMH, thanks for the inside look at your process. If Iovance was only a one trick pony (shout out to Derby day), then I wouldn't be holding such a large core position and I would more likely try to time those known events with options. Because there are those unknown dates for future events and because Iovance is developing multiple TIL therapies along with potential combination therapies, I'm more inclined to hold a larger core position now so as to not miss some of those share price moving events that may take us by surprise (even a buyout). I agree that using options may be beneficial for the known events and can be part of an overall strategy, but I've been less successful buying calls versus selling puts when trying to time various events and share price reactions. I only sell puts when I'm willing to own more shares anyway and I do sell calls when I'm happy with the current price but I'm not in a rush to sell the stock. This way I get paid to wait and if they call away my shares, so be it. I am NOT currently selling calls on any of my IOVA shares. I am selling some puts from time to time at strike prices at or below our current price and less than 6 months out.
Bottom line, we buy stocks because we believe the price will go up. We sell stocks for many reasons that often have nothing to do with the stock price itself. You can't always pick the time when money is needed for something in your life (though some of my relatives have been removed from my list). This is why I say there's hundreds of reasons to sell a stock, but only one reason to buy it.
May the 4th be with you (shout out to Star Wars day).
Badgerkid
GMH, a bit off-topic, and I'll try and improve on this discussion and my thoughts in the future, but one point that I keep coming back to is patent expirations and ways of extending those dates. Other companies may full well see value from acquiring Iovance so as to combine it with their products in order to gain patent protection for additional years (Merck, Keytruda).
This is an excerpt from an old article, but it's still relevant on a number of fronts: "Combinations Does one and one make three? That is the question drug companies are asking themselves these days as they face huge threats to their earnings from patent expirations. One novel solution: combining two or more successful drugs into one tablet and marketing it as a whole new product.
Schering-Plough is looking to extend its giant franchise in its allergy drug Claritin by combining it with Singulair, an asthma drug from Merck. Schering-Plough is not alone. Eli Lilly, Pfizer, and Warner-Lambert are all looking to create new combinations of drugs to bolster earnings and sustain growth. Companies are getting a lot more creative in ways to sustain the product lifespan of drugs. The medical community looks at it as a kind of cookbook medicine. They have an aversion to combination drugs. Nonetheless, it is a strategy that has proved successful for some drug makers..."
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3146086/
Tai is nothing but a mouth piece for the shorts. Fortunately, there's plenty of $20/hour jobs flipping burgers (and I'm not trying to disparage those people doing the flipping). I can't consider anything that Tai has to say to have value with regards to Interdigital, nor do I care (good little soldier that he is).
Interdigital continues to shine.
Good luck to the longs.
Thanks to everyone here, I appreciate the discussion and challenges to dig deeper on this investment as well as into this new approach to cancer treatment.
Getting into the weeds a bit, I'm still trying to fully understand another subject, that of patents and licensing. If anyone here has a good take on Iovance's IP portfolio, jump in anytime now or in the future. I see that Iovance has exclusivity on some that they license from others and Iovance also owns some that may be needed by other companies in this arena. Cross licensing will be a subject for a later date, but it will come into play most certainly. My hope is that Iovance has patents that are ultimately part of the standards and deemed essential and thereby have a value for licensing. A few recent patents apply to manufacturing which was thoroughly discussed in the Chardan chat. The ability to manufacture TIL on a large scale may be a big part of the future value of Iovance. Definitely something to watch.
https://patents.justia.com/assignee/iovance-biotherapeutics-inc
GMH, let's make sure we're around for the next 10-K.
Have a great day. Time for me to go do something resembling work.
GMH, is that for 10-Q's or just for the 10-K? I've seen different numbers, so if you have a link with the most current info, I'd appreciate it. I've seen older and newer info, but I honestly don't know what it is currently seeing how it's changed over the decades of my time on this earth (not centuries yet).
Thanks.
Surfkast, here's hoping the company let's us in just a bit on how well things are actually going. I think they'll remain somewhat conservative in what they share, but I do think we're going to get a good amount of very good news.
Still hanging in with the rest of us old timers?
Best wishes for our mutual success on this one.
GMH, I don't know if they could have filed a Q1 that late, but the date is set and I'm happy as well with regards to options. Good luck to you.
May 9 - Iovance Biotherapeutics to Host First Quarter 2024 Financial Results Conference Call and Webcast on Thursday, May 9, 2024
"SAN CARLOS, Calif., May 01, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: IOVA), a biotechnology company focused on innovating, developing, and delivering novel polyclonal tumor infiltrating lymphocyte (TIL) therapies for patients with cancer, will report its first quarter 2024 financial results on Thursday, May 9, 2024. Management will host a conference call and live audio webcast to discuss these results and provide a corporate update at 4:30 p.m. ET."
https://ir.iovance.com/news-releases/news-release-details/iovance-biotherapeutics-host-first-quarter-2024-financial
GMH, instead of the usual historical takeover premium, I would much prefer a hysterical takeover premium as in crazy high. That way you'll be less disappointed that Iovance didn't go it alone.
Thanks for the reminder on those numbers and reference points. Keep sharing, it's always appreciated.
The Chardan chat is incredibly worthwhile to watch. If you want to see what kind of team we're investing in, you'll get a very good picture of the talent we have at Iovance, Igor Bilinsky, PhD and COO of Iovance. From a manufacturing perspective (and I worked in manufacturing earlier in my life), all of the questions that I had were addressed including a few I had submitted earlier.
Here's one more call giving even more reasons to stay long in my investment and a few intriguing comments that lead me to add more shares.
Good luck to the longs.
This was a manufacturing summit, not a head count of current patients, but what was discussed should give you a picture of just how big this is going to get going forward.
The big take-away - Iovance continues to stay one or more steps ahead of what they need going forward and they continue to be prepared for those potential risks that are outside of their internal control (governmental policies and such).
If you're a good observer of body language, you'll pick up on the bonuses in this chat.
Good luck to the longs.
Gopher and GMH, just to add a little clarity (after chatting with Gopher earlier today), the point is that the company acquiring the company being bought does typically see it's share price drop upon acquiring the target company, but it often returns to its previous price and even goes higher if the acquisition proves to be a positive revenue generator for the buyer. To your point GMH, yes, the acquired company no longer exists with its own stock symbol because it is now part of the company that made the purchase (but it still may operate as a wholly owned subsidiary or similar). This is a question and concern that arises if the buying company's stock is part of the deal.
The parent company/purchaser does see a negative impact on its share price initially, but will likely see a gain if the deal was a good one.
In chatting with Gopher, he and I agree we don't always remember the facts as well as we would like, but I remember reading that many target companies stock price will go up to a number just shy of the initial offer as sellers come in to liquidate before the final date of the sale. But one thing I also remember reading is that sometimes the buyout price goes higher as more companies join the fray to acquire the target company and begin bidding up the price. So it's possible that was also part of the memory of which stock goes higher in price and when during that period of time before the deal is finalized.
Gopher, if I missed the finer points of our conversation, jump in when you have time and bail me out (if memory serves, we did have a conversation, right?)
Here's a quick synopsis of what I'm trying to say:
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/203.asp#:~:text=Key%20Takeaways,debt%20to%20finance%20the%20acquisition.
Two new events upcoming: Today - Chardan Annual Genetic Medicines & Cell Therapy Manufacturing Summit Fireside Chat: April 30, 2024 at 2:30 p.m. ET Virtual
In two weeks: The Citizens JMP Life Sciences Conference Fireside Chat: May 13, 2024 at 2:00 p.m. ET New York, NY Virtual
https://ir.iovance.com/news-releases/news-release-details/iovance-biotherapeutics-present-upcoming-conferences-13
Surfkast, we're not getting any younger, are we. Fortunately, a lot of things are keeping us alive longer than we deserve.
Good luck to the longs.
Old news and new - I'll leave the speculation for others:
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/special-report/deal-or-no-deal-top-10-takeover-targets-biopharma (check out #5 and #9)
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/merck-still-market-deals-1b-15b-range-ceo-says (Merck is still shopping)
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/japans-ono-pharmaceutical-buy-deciphera-24-billion-2024-04-29/ (today's hot news - #5 on the list is now being acquired)
With the Q1 call coming up, and after re-reading the previously posted article from March 1st, I would encourage our analysts and our company's management to address some of those questions that now should have more refined answers. During the three fireside chats, we've been given glimpses of how things are going with the ramp-up, the successes with insurance companies and medicare, the movement toward frontline treatment, the progress with foreign markets, and even the progress on additional TIL therapies. What I hope to hear is an expansion on some of those topics. It's still early in the rollout for Amtagvi, but I suspect guidance will provide some color of what we may expect throughout the remainder of the year. A lot of the targets are still moving, but any color we can get should add support to our investment going forward.
I accept that Iovance has been somewhat conservative in actual statements, but they've also shared information at times that surprised us in very good ways. Here's hoping for that surprise!
I still contend, it's the revenues reported in the Q2, Q3, and Q4 along with the full year guidance for next year that will each drive this stock price higher. Additional bonuses will be the foreign market approvals, successful trial results and movement toward additional licensing of other TIL therapies.
One item that the company has already shared and should not be overlooked is the depth and value of Iovance's patent portfolio.
There's a lot that's building and there's a lot to build on.
Good luck to the longs.
One last reminder, clinical oncologists and medical scientists think in terms of years and decades, it's okay for us to think in terms of a couple of months or a year or two.
An item of note (may have already been posted): Sajeve Samuel Thomas, MD will be presenting at the ASCO
https://meetings.asco.org/meetings/2024-asco-annual-meeting/316/program-guide/search?q=iovance
The following article from March is still a worthwhile read regarding the launch of Amtagvi:
https://www.precisionmedicineonline.com/regulatory-news-fda-approvals/after-iovances-amtagvi-approval-whats-ahead-til-therapy (I've posted the article in full below)
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Here's the part I like (though the numbers discussed are also very exciting):
"March 1, 2024 NEW YORK – Sajeve Thomas, an oncologist at Orlando Health Cancer Institute, had just finished seeing his last patient for the afternoon on Friday, Feb. 16, when he learned that the US Food and Drug Administration had approved Iovance Biotherapeutics' Amtagvi (lifileucel), an autologous tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte (TIL) therapy for advanced melanoma.
'It was a beautiful moment because we finally get to move forward with treating patients who have been waiting for this for quite some time," Thomas said. "We were all high-fiving and hugging.' "
Futher in the article: "...At his center, Thomas said he has about 13 or 14 patients on a list to receive Amtagvi as soon as their insurance plans sign off. As of Wednesday, prior authorization requests had already been submitted for five or six of these patients, and the rest were in the works..."
Just a little bonus read for the weekend. Enjoy.
Badgerkid
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Here's the article in full:
After Iovance's Amtagvi Approval, What's Ahead for TIL Therapy?
Mar 01, 2024 | Caroline Hopkins
NEW YORK – Sajeve Thomas, an oncologist at Orlando Health Cancer Institute, had just finished seeing his last patient for the afternoon on Friday, Feb. 16, when he learned that the US Food and Drug Administration had approved Iovance Biotherapeutics' Amtagvi (lifileucel), an autologous tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte (TIL) therapy for advanced melanoma.
"It was a beautiful moment because we finally get to move forward with treating patients who have been waiting for this for quite some time," Thomas said. "We were all high-fiving and hugging."
Amtagvi is the first cell therapy to enter the market for a solid tumor indication, and Thomas' cancer center at Orlando Health was one of the sites that participated in the clinical trial that led to the TIL therapy's accelerated approval, which means that the center already has the clinical processes and experience to administer this logistically complex therapy.
"It was a labor of love to participate in these protocols and help develop this, then await this FDA approval as the PDUFA date kept getting pushed out," he said, recalling the many consecutive delays to Amtagvi's approval as regulators ironed out the best way to regulate an altogether new class of bespoke therapies.
Now, Orlando Health is one of the 30 sites Iovance has deemed an authorized treatment center that is ready to begin administering Amtagvi right away, or as soon as advanced melanoma patients secure the necessary prior authorization from their insurance companies.
"We've been giving patients TIL [therapy] for seven years, but one of the key challenges now is trying to get these therapies approved by insurances and go through those motions," he said. "It's a lot easier when it's on a trial."
Amtagvi's list price, $515,000, is too steep to administer without prior authorization from patients' insurance providers. "Everyone's insurance is a bit different, and this is still new," Thomas said.
At his center, Thomas said he has about 13 or 14 patients on a list to receive Amtagvi as soon as their insurance plans sign off. As of Wednesday, prior authorization requests had already been submitted for five or six of these patients, and the rest were in the works, though none had officially gotten the go-ahead from insurers.
The TIL therapy process involves many steps, including an initial surgery to harvest the tumor specimen that is sent to Iovance's manufacturing sites for ex vivo expansion. The patient then must undergo lymphodepleting chemotherapy before ultimately receiving the TIL infusion along with an interleukin-2 infusion. The whole process can take more than a month before accounting for prior authorization, which can tack on several days to several weeks, according to Iovance.
Thomas said he only recently learned that a patient's prior authorization request needs to be cleared before they can even start with the surgical tumor resection. "I'm kind of learning as we go," Thomas said of the reimbursement process for Amtagvi. "I expect there to be a bit more hurdles, now that we have to go through insurance, to actually get these patients treated on a commercial TIL product."
In a call to discuss Iovance's 2023 fourth quarter and full-year financial results on Wednesday afternoon, Executive VP of Commercial Jim Ziegler said the firm is optimistic about payor coverage, both from Medicare and commercial payors. "The payors appreciate the unmet need and understand the clinical value of Amtagvi, and to date, we haven't had any issues," Ziegler said. "But I would provide the disclaimer that we are very, very early on."
Scaling up
During Wednesday's earnings call, Iovance executives said the firm plans to have 50 active treatment sites administering Amtagvi by the end of May.
"The 50 [centers] … are going to pick up the significant portion of the treated patients in the country," Ziegler said. "We will continue to monitor the need to expand from that point."
Similar to how the treatment landscape has played out for autologous CAR T-cell therapy in blood cancer, Iovance expects access to Amtagvi will be concentrated at the top treatment centers. The firm estimates that the top 40 treatment centers it authorizes will provide about 80 percent of treatments.
While the concentration of autologous cell therapies at top cancer centers with specialized personnel and drugmaker-issued stamps of approval can ensure patient safety and provider experience, it can also mean that patients treated at community hospitals and private practices and those living in rural regions will encounter more difficulties in terms of longer travel time and out-of-pocket ancillary costs in accessing Amtagvi.
For all of these reasons, Amtagvi likely won't become a standard-of-care therapy for all melanoma patients right away.
Next up for Iovance
Following Amtagvi's FDA approval, Iovance said on Wednesday that it is planning to file for European approval during the first half of 2024. Then, in the second half of the year, Iovance will file for approval in the UK and Canada. The following year, the firm plans to file for Amtagvi's approval in Australia and in other countries with "significant populations" of advanced melanoma patients. Iovance expects to start seeing revenue gains from the product later this year.
The firm is also focusing on developing the autologous therapy in earlier treatment settings, testing it in combination with other approved therapies, and evaluating its activity in cancer indications other than melanoma. It is also focused on advancing engineered versions of the product.
At his center, even though TIL therapy is now a commercially available option for refractory melanoma patients, Thomas said he is encouraging eligible patients to enroll in clinical trials evaluating the treatment in different settings or testing newer versions of the product.
For his advanced melanoma patients who have not yet received checkpoint inhibitor immunotherapy, for instance, Thomas said Iovance's Phase III TILVANCE-301 study could be an option. Orlando Health is one of the sites involved in this trial of frontline Amtagvi plus Merck's PD-1 checkpoint inhibitor Keytruda (pembrolizumab) against Keytruda alone. This is also the confirmatory trial for converting Amtagvi's accelerated approval to a full approval, and patients will have a chance to cross over to receive TIL therapy if they progress on Keytruda alone, Thomas pointed out.
Thomas has been encouraged by Amtagvi's efficacy in clinical trials and is both thrilled and relieved that his advanced melanoma patients can now access it outside a study. Even so, he highlighted that a 30 percent response rate in advanced melanoma still leaves significant room for improvement. He's hopeful that TIL therapy in earlier lines and some of the newer versions of the treatment can improve on this.
"What we learned from giving TIL in the refractory setting was that folks who had a really low volume of disease did better with their response rates," Thomas said. "There is a real thought that the lower the tumor volume and the earlier in the course of treatment, maybe the more likely we'll be to get long-term responses and potentially long-term remissions."
Beyond Amtagvi, Iovance is studying engineered versions of other autologous TIL therapies, including its investigational product IOV-4001, which involves modifying the TILs to disrupt PDCD1, the gene encoding PD-1. The firm is evaluating this treatment in a Phase I/II trial in both advanced melanoma and non-small cell lung cancer.
Iovance is also evaluating Amtagvi in non-small cell lung cancer, although the FDA late last year paused that trial due to a serious adverse event. During its Wednesday call, Iovance Chief Medical Officer Friedrich Finckenstein said the firm is working closely with the FDA to resume enrolling NSCLC patients in that study "really soon."
Finally, Iovance is preparing to evaluate autologous TIL therapy in advanced endometrial cancer. That trial, which is to begin during the first half of 2024, will include patients whose cancers are both DNA mismatch repair deficient and proficient.
Next wave of TIL approaches
Although Iovance is the first drugmaker to score regulatory approval for an autologous cell therapy in solid tumors, other biotechs and academic centers have been working on their own iterations of the therapy. And now that Amtagvi has proven there's an achievable path to getting these therapies onto the market, these other groups are emboldened to try to bring their own candidates to patients.
"Defining … a regulatory path going forward will help TIL therapies in development and should unleash additional investment," Jason Bock, CEO of the Cell Therapy Manufacturing Center, an MD Anderson Cancer Center and National Resilience joint venture, said.
"TILs will have the challenge of [proving] how sustainable the business model is even once you get to commercialization, but that's something that businesspeople can wrap their minds around and run numbers and calculate return on investment and those kinds of things," Bock had said in an interview just days before Amtagvi's approval. "But it's a lot harder when you have this big black box of regulatory risk that says, 'Hey, there's never been a product commercially approved.'"
Both Bock and Orlando's Thomas pointed to a Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company called Obsidian Therapeutics as one example of a TIL therapy-focused firm that could get a boost from TIL therapy becoming commercially available. Obsidian is developing a genetically modified version of TIL therapy, dubbed OBX-115, so that patients don't need infusions of interleukin-2 alongside their autologous TILs. Obsidian, which is enrolling advanced melanoma patients onto OBX-115 clinical trials and plans to expand into other solid tumors, accomplishes this by engineering the TIL products with membrane-bound, rather than secreted, interleukin.
"We're excited about this one because maybe we'll find the therapy might be better tolerated," said Thomas, whose center is also a clinical trial site for Obsidian. "One of the limiting factors of the whole TIL process is that not everyone can tolerate TIL because of the need for IL-2. Obsidian's product foregoes the need for IL-2."
In December 2023, Obsidian shared early data from its first-in-human OBX-115 trial, in which three out of six patients responded and experienced an "emerging safety profile that appears differentiated from that of unengineered TIL therapy."
Bock highlighted another program from the firm KSQ Therapeutics, which is developing an engineered TIL therapy for solid tumors dubbed KSQ-001EX. That treatment involves autologous TILs that are engineered to inactivate the SOCS1 gene using CRISPR-Cas9. In November 2023, the FDA gave Lexington, Massachusetts-based KSQ the go-ahead to begin studying its TIL therapy in first-in-human trials.
The idea behind KSQ's therapy is that knocking out the SOCS1 gene could enhance the ability of T cells to infiltrate and expand inside the tumor. KSQ is working on another product that knocks out both SOCS1 and another gene, called Regnase-1, which it identified through an unbiased screening process. "There have been so many improvements in our ability to engineer cells, either through viruses or through CRISPR editing, and those are going to be the products that ride on the back of this Iovance approval," Bock said.
Thomas also mentioned selected TIL therapy approaches, where firms harvest patients' TILs, but then also perform apheresis to harvest their dendritic cells and perform whole-exome sequencing of the tumor to identify the top cancer-specific neoantigens. "Then you're co-incubating the dendritic cells, which act like scouts to pick up those antigens and activate and engage the TILs that are most active," he said. "With unselected TILs, you're just expanding out whatever's in the tumor itself, but you don't know if you're actually expanding the TILs that recognize cancer, or whether those TILs are just bystanders that don't really do much."
One such firm developing selected TIL therapy is Turnstone Biologics, which is studying its investigational candidate TIDAL-01 (TBio-4101) in solid tumors including in various melanoma subtypes, breast cancer, and colorectal cancer. Turnstone expects to report initial clinical data on TIDAL-01 in mid-2024.
Whatever the next generation of cell therapies might look like for solid tumors, the field is watching Iovance's early days closely as a roadmap for what's to come.
"Not only was this a new treatment for melanoma, this was the first cellular therapy product approved for solid tumors," Thomas said. "Certainly, that makes it exciting for anyone who's interested in providing cell therapy products for solid tumors."
Going forward, he said it will be important to encourage patients to enroll in these clinical trials so the field can continue improving on the process and achieving even better responses with fewer side effects.
As for the immediate near future, Thomas said that his center is focused on getting patients on Amtagvi who have been waiting for this approval for too long. "Our biggest learning curve now is trying to understand insurance," Thomas said. "And we'll be learning that as we go."
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Surfkast, thank you. Looks like 40 ATC's at this time. The company stated 50 by the end of May. Looks to be on track.
Looks like I just needed to keep clicking on the "LOAD MORE" button on the search page to add in the rest of the centers after plugging in my zip.
I'm not the sharpest tool (but I am a tool or so I've been told).
Motley article today: "3 Millionaire-Maker Biotech Stocks" "...As veteran investors can attest, however, the time to go shopping is when quality stocks are discounted. With that as the backdrop, here's a rundown on three biotech stocks you may want to consider scooping up while they're still on sale..."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-millionaire-maker-biotech-stocks-143000558.html
It's another MF teaser article to entice a further look at MF. It's click bait if you will, but it's nice to be on the positive side of an article. Let's see if the cycle continues right up to the Q1 call.
Good luck to the longs.
Does anyone have an updated list of the ATC's for Amtagvi? I recently saw that Froedtert in Milwaukee was placed on the list and I believe Iovance has more than 40 approved.
An actual list would be greatly appreciated. Share if you can.
Thanks.
https://www.amtagvi.com/support-and-resources/authorized-treatment-center/
Scooby, it would seem so. A major IDCC share price drop after the BoA analyst followed his marching orders to lower the target price and put out a sell recommendation. Shorts cover 15% of the open interest shortly after that spanking. How'd that conversation go at BoA? Can you help a buddy out? There'll be a little something extra in your end of year bonus?
Tai, you truly should not be taken serious, but such are the games that get played when no negative consequences are tied to such actions.
It can be a dangerous arena for the retail investor who is always playing catch up with these major players.
Hey Tai, maybe next time drop me a private note before you bash the stock. How much do you need for that information? Give me a call, you've got my number.
MN Gopher, as we've discussed many times, the one thing I take comfort in with Iovance is the group of investors that have come together and own a significant portion of this company. Those same investors have a proven track record of making good decisions and ensuring the companies' management teams and key employees can serve the overall needs of those companies, and by extension ensure a good return on their investments.
My belief is they see and know far more than any of us here and yet they've continued to add to their stock positions.
We're in good company with this group of investors and the team at Iovance.
And again, thanks for the recommendation of the book "For Blood and Money" It's a good read and an inside look at one of Iovance's biggest investors - Wayne Rothbaum. More interesting to me is some of the inside looks at the actual scientists and financiers and that whole relationship in setting up some of these biopharm companies.
Badgerkid
Sunman, regarding the nonsense that surrounded the ticker IBRX, it seems a small handful of posters, or one with multiple aliases was running a pump and dump - not very effectively, but that's how it seemed. I don't know if it's a good or mediocre play, but I do know the comparisons that were being made by that small group of noise makers are blatant lies and misinformation. Many of the posters on that board have also grown tired of that incessant nonsense as it didn't help in having a true and detailed conversation about their investment in that company. I use message boards to encourage me to dig a little deeper when I hear something that raises a question or a point of value.
Agreed, it's only noise and nonsense, but I assume it did and does have an effect on some retail investors. Hey, it got me to look if only briefly, but that's what I require of myself to know that I'm doing my due diligence on IOVA.
I've done my due diligence and I have high confidence in my IOVA investment. Amtagvi has the potential to get Iovance into the black by the end of next year (a "blockbuster" therapy of sorts) because of the team at Iovance that's bringing it to market. I do not own any of that other company, but I can't say if it should or should not be considered.
Like I said before, an approved drug or therapy is only part of the equation, even if it has potential of blockbuster status, getting it to market and prescribed by the medical community is "a whole nother thing" (my idiom for today).
Good luck to the Iovance investors, it would seem we have a blockbuster therapy and a winning team running the company.
Short interest dropped to 3.69 million shares from 4.34 million. Report date was 4/15/24.
FWIW
I'm telling you GMH, the Iovance management team seems to have it together. It's one thing to have a workable therapy or successful drug, but there's far more to making it profitable and building the value of a company.
A very good combination indeed.
Another thank you has to go out to my friend who told me to check Iovance out after he had been watching it for several years. I was intrigued by TIL therapy, the approval was awesome, but it's the team at Iovance that has me hanging on to a core position of shares.
Best of luck to you GMH.
Iovance will be presenting at the ASCO: "Oral Presentation of Updated Results of IOV-COM-202 Cohort 1A of Lifileucel plus Pembrolizumab in Advanced Frontline Melanoma"
https://ir.iovance.com/news-releases/news-release-details/iovance-biotherapeutics-present-clinical-and-translational-data
Retired early, it's definitely on the road, but there's still a few pot holes that need to be filled in.
I'm anticipating a very good call at the Q1, but I'm not certain how it will effect share price just yet since actual revenue won't show up until the Q2 report.
Since you retired early, I'm assuming you have some time.
Good luck to you.
Surfkast, I understand your frustration especially given what you've shared with us on this board about your current point in your life. We each have to follow our own path. Good advice that I received from a very successful friend - there's 100's of reasons to sell a stock and only one reason to buy it. No one here can tell you what to do, but I do appreciate your willingness to be board monitor. Timing is not always our friend.
Do you think it would be advisable for one of us to take on the role of monitor? I do think we're going to start seeing a lot more posters on this site in the coming months.
All my best to you no matter what you decide.
Good luck to you throughout your retirement years.
Badgerkid
GMH, thanks for your updates this morning. Enjoyed the articles and the shared info.
Truly appreciate what you've provided to me and to this board.
Badgerkid
Neptune, I'm currently only using the free service to post on iHub, I'm not currently a paid subscriber so I can't respond to private messages except during the one hour free period on Fridays.
To answer your question, I got a tip last year to check out Iovance by a friend who had been paying attention to it for several years. He said it was time to give it a more serious look as they were close to a possible approval. I did some due diligence, took a small position in May of last year, went through a few ups and downs with the various issues and delays, sold a few shares on some ups and bought a few shares again. Then it dropped down into the $3's and I wondered what I had gotten myself into. After that, I did a lot more due diligence and realized the reasons to own this stock were valid and started to build a much bigger position but at prices around $7 or higher, not when it was down in the $3's (dang).
I've now built a nice core position which I will hang onto for what should prove to be a very good ride upwards over the coming months and years if the company continues to execute on its plan. I will try to stay flexible enough in case I see any concerns, but so far the only real issues that we seem to be currently facing are overall market conditions and negative sector sentiment at this time.
Amtagvi approval cemented my reasons to stay long and to further build my position, I continue to stay long because Iovance's management team has proven itself through each of the steps they've taken in being prepared for each contingency and how they hit the ground running with the Amtagvi approval.
Iovance's bigger shareholders are known to be very successful in their investments when they take large positions in companies and I expect Iovance will be one more success on their lists. I don't mind following the leaders, and the individual that shared this lead with me also has a proven track record.
Finally, I tend to get a little impatient, but the advice I've gotten from others who know this arena and have proven themselves, including several posters on this board, remind me that earnings are the driving force for the stock price at this time along with additional TIL therapy approvals and new foreign markets for Iovance's products. I expected a bigger jump on Amtagvi approval, but the market will reward us handsomely on IOVA when revenues start hitting the bottom line. IOVA is still trading at a higher price than the pre-approval price, even following the secondary offering, but the sector has not been our friend over this past month and there's been no news to add to the story.
When Q2, Q3, Q4 and 2025 guidance are available for viewing, we should gain continual price support. If the market doesn't get ahead of the actual numbers, it should be a nice ride. If the biotech sector sentiment makes a turn to the positive again, that should also help the upside during those quiet news periods.
I would like to hear your story if you're willing to share. What brought you over to this board? Invited or did you just stumble onto this motley crew? How long have you been invested in IOVA (assuming you are)?
Good luck to you.
Badgerkid
Welcome to the board, neptunesashimi.
Inducement grants awarded. Here's the cool part:
"... today announced that on April 18, 2024 (the “Date of Grant”), the Company approved the grant of inducement stock options covering an aggregate of 79,310 shares of Iovance’s common stock to thirty-seven new, non-executive employees..."
That's 37 new employees. Just saying.
https://ir.iovance.com/news-releases/news-release-details/iovance-biotherapeutics-reports-inducement-grants-under-17
GMH, thank you for sharing. I concur.
Surfkast, we're all down from the high. I wish you good luck and a nice run up soon, but this is still all about earnings going forward and the time it'll take to book those earnings IMO. The entire sector has not been our friend ever since we hit the high as did the sector funds. It's all down.
GMH, have you got any updates on your expectations for guidance regarding Q2, 3 and 4?
I think we're at 36 ATC's currently with the goal of 50 by end of May or June? Somewhere around there.
Thanks in advance.
Surfkast, all markets are affected by uncertainty. People move to safety when things look scary, rational thought is affected by fear. The media will hype even the smallest of negative events, but imagine if the Middle East escalates. Oil goes up, many stock prices come down, fundamentals take a back seat for awhile.
Sunman knows that rebounds for the good companies will happen as certainty returns, but keeping dry powder allows us to pick up a few good companies on the cheap (or cheaper at least) during those times of uncertainty.
If you're of retirement age, there's nothing worse than a negative market sentiment when you want to sell down your positions. If you're younger, these are the times to build portfolios using sound fundamentals.
Good luck. Sunman knows of what he speaks, or so it has always seemed to me.