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Danish Dude is a booster but not a pumper.
The behaviors of both types are admittedly often similar.
Both ‘stay on message’ especially about management. Both often attack real shareholders who disagree with them and lump them in with alleged paid bashers. This makes it easier to just paint pumpers and boosters with the same brush and respond in kind with accusations right back at them.
Conflating boosters and pumpers is an understandable reaction after getting viciously attacked by both pumpers and boosters over time. It is also not accurate.
Thus, while I have little use for DD and he has even less use for me, I will state that from all evidence he genuinely believes in NWBO technology and management. Whether he is right about both things or only one or none is up to each of us to decide.
While his due diligence is skewed in a positive direction, if taken with a pinch of salt, it is far more useful than most contributions about NWBO here or elsewhere.
That makes DD a booster and not a pumper as he is not promoting a narrative he does not honestly believe in. The one time he thought about selling in a crisis he was transparent so there was no dump to correspond to any pump.
Subtle to the point of irrelevance then.
Could it have been a trade made during hours but posted after hours?
Until proven otherwise, I think we have to regard the 21st Century Cures Act with skepticism since, as NWBO learned the hard way, it is not what legislators intended but how regulators and insurers actually carry out a new law that matters and the past history with supposed reforms to increase patient access is not great. As always, we’ll see.
It’s not what we want it’s what Linda Powers wants. For a parallel, look at the US Senate. Incumbency is powerful and she has her poison pill.
So to know what will likely happen, look at her past behavior and determine if controlling this technology is more or less important to Ms. Powers than other considerations.
Maybe she’s changed and mellowed behind the scenes but the way the company is run belies that notion as it is very much same old, same old.
In that case, what do you think the buyout price would be?
At the next ASM (presumably post-approval) NWBO should lay out a fairly detailed plan for how they are going to use the UK market to become profitable, including medical tourism. They can do this and after so many years of virtual silence and ambiguity when they do speak, they should do this. Will they be forthright at the ASM about the numbers and how they are going to start making money after all these years? As always: Who knows?
In theory, the extra months spent wordsmithing the presentation to MHRA should deduct drastically from the time needed to prepare the application to the FDA. There is the real risk that in practice NWBO probably find at least one way to make it more complicated because ‘everything takes longer.’ NWBO should also address this elephant in the room in a clear way.
You can laugh but approval is this year (2024) and yes revenue is 2025 because certainly by year’s end they should have started getting payment from and treating a lot more patients than under Specials and if not, then that would be a management shortfall.
I will certainly be glad if something with NWBO comes in earlier than I expect. I’ve just learned that padding estimates is best though hopefully the regulator will be different. We’ll see.
We’re still in an earlier part of the story.
When we explain our NWBO investment to family it’s a bit like Jack explaining the magic beans he just bought to his mother when he got home.
In both cases, the explanation doesn’t go over well.
Thankfully Jack only had to wait one night.
Hopefully this is the year our beanstalk grows.
This could be the most outrageously ridiculous statement of the century! I am in awe of this magnificent ignorance. Second to none. Congrats.
<<<<. I kind of think that NWBO management is holding the door open for us to buy super cheaply and giving us the chance to legally benefit from public information that is effectively as lucrative as if one had inside information given how little understood it is by the market. >>>>
Thank you!
I kind of think that NWBO management is holding the door open for us to buy super cheaply and giving us the chance to legally benefit from public information that is effectively as lucrative as if one had inside information given how little understood it is by the market.
Those of us who only bought a few shares down in the .20s and .30s years ago can now load up at prices just a little higher and with far less risk from the trial or regulators even (PIP and all that).
Because of the 150 day window we can load up over a long period of time and not be forced to liquidate much of our good long term investments to raise cash quickly.
This notion of mine will be confirmed or disconfirmed by how effectively management capitalizes on MHRA approval.
Think about it:
There’s no legal way except this that they can make the last decade plus up to us and no lawyer would even acknowledge just the moral need to make it up for fear of creating liability.
If we fail to take advantage of this make up opportunity just because we don’t fully trust and believe the leaders will capitalize properly on MHRA approval then the argument, will be vocalized by their self-appointed defenders that it’s our own fault. I know this will happen because back when the SP was double or triple what is today we used to get beaten over the head daily for not loading the boat back when the price was under 30 cents. It’s funny how we hear that boasting and ridiculing a bit less now but it will start right up if the SP climbs.
We’ll have been availing myself of this chance because if I did not believe it’s a chance, then why am I still invested?
At a bare minimum, I believe that if MHRA approves as expected there’s no way we don’t make a handsome profit from any shares purchased in the .40’s and .50’s.
In fact they are so confident in their plans that they don’t even care about the yearly stock swings!
Unless you think there is some hidden piece of news that is driving the drop, it's not really unsettling, just enervating.
I am taking advantage of this extended buying opportunity to buy in bits and pieces without breaking the bank, deferring credit card payments or doing anything else that is foolish. I've been able to substantially increase my position and a couple of days ago I bought at about 50 cents and now its 47 cents. So what? If my investing thesis is right, I'll be way past that, not to begrudge 3 cents here or there. If my investing thesis is wrong, I should get out now (I don't think I'm wrong, not in the medium run, anyway).
The market (which appears to consist mainly of existing retailers) seems to pricing in the idea that approval is not happening in April 2024 and probably won't happen in May 2024 so there is no FOMO that is causing people to mortgage their houses, get payday loans, borrow money, sell other 'quality' stocks etc. to raise large amounts to buy.
We've just had way too many 'last chances to buy cheap' for anyone to get excited here.
So, in the absence of news, and with Captain Obvious' share counter continuing to go up as NWBO gets money to keep the lights on, why would the price stay stable?
Instead, the share price will slowly get pulled down by gravity and while it might be buffeted briefly upward, with the absence of news, the tendency is to settle towards the ground.
Now if we are still this price in late May or early June 2024, then that is time to start talking about manipulation or at least be concerned there's some hidden shoe yet to drop that smart money knows about, because by that time, FOMO should start kicking in.
Given that the individual who started this is not supporting their position with hard facts combined with informed speculation on what MHRA approval is likely to do for the SP, I would agree with you.
Someone who discusses the issue with facts and informed speculation about the post-MHRA environment, can on the other hand, have a valid discussion of this issue, even now. To say otherwise would be to rule a sober discussion of other topics like revenues to be out-of-bounds until MHRA approval, in which case, we wouldn't be left with much to read.
I disagree with the idea that it is guaranteed to come, but I believe that the possibility that it is likely to happen can only be dismissed with evidence and reasoning showing how other courses besides an R/S would be more expedient for management than an R/S. Just dismissing the concern based on who is perceived as raising it is a weak argument given the history of the company turning to this tool.
A comparison of an R/S vs other strategies for getting the price high enough for uplisting could be explored with the pros and cons enumerated. So too could the benefits of deferring uplisting until we have profits rolling in.
The quote you provided did not come from me but from someone else’s post.
Please refrain from false attributions, especially when you put the word ‘fact’ in all caps. If you are going to quote someone else in a post to me, say who you’re quoting so people do not think it comes from the person you’re replying to.
In any case, the fact that you are stooping to this nonsense tells me it’s time for me to leave the NWBO discussion alone for a while and go back to waiting (hopefully not on Gidot).
At this point, nothing would surprise me and like you, I am increasingly tempering my expectations for what MHRA will do for us and I am starting to look towards what the FDA approval will do for the SP or even just what bringing in tangible revenue that actually shows up in a meaningful way on our balance sheet will do.
For anyone who invested in Fall 2023 or onwards, the time spent invested, the price per share and the profit gained will work out well for them, even if MHRA isn't when we start getting golden eggs but obviously folks investing for the first time now will be better off than I ever will be or those who went before.
As you said, time will tell.
Assuming that is true, it still only explains the lack of transparency by the regulator through May 9, 2022.
Bureaucratic nonsense could be a partial explanation for the time since May 10, 2022. Maybe there was no mechanism for properly informing the company of the reason once the trial ended and NWBO perhaps had strategic in curiosity and never asked the regulator after TLD and so was never told. This they could always say they didn’t know and the company cannot share what it does not know.
Or maybe NWBO did find out the reason from the regulator after TLD and chose not to share it.
As with most things NWBO there will be different ‘obvious’ answers and little clarity.
First, to my knowledge, there has never been an official explanation of the enrollment halt or which regulator imposed it, only that it was lifted.
Second your description incorrectly calls the pause in enrollment a trial halt, which it was not as patients already enrolled continued to be treated.
That said, as an NWBO shareholder I have long believed that once the halt was lifted there should have been proper transparency and that vague characterizations about it complaining about ‘turning good news into bad’ have not been sufficient explanation for an event that harmed our investment here.
One could argue against my position and say that NWBO had to wait that until the trial was over to tell the whole truth about the enrollment halt in order to avoid compromising the trial.
However in April 2024, nearly two years after Top-Line Data was released, we should know and not have to speculate about what happened and why.
The continuing lack of transparency on the enrollment halt creates scope for critics like yourself to portray the enrollment halt in a negative light, to the detriment of shareholders.
To address the overall thrust of your questions many disruptive technologies advanced by small players get ignored by established players, especially if they do not fit into their business model.
DCVax-L and Direct are disruptive technologies that do not fit into Big Pharma’s business model or even the business model of hospitals and oncologists (though this to a lesser degree). Direct could even disrupt not just chemo and radiation but down the road could also reduce reliance on surgery if used as an alternative for operative tumors (right now it’s intended for inoperable).
For one example, look at the fact Blockbuster turned down the chance to buy Netflix in its infancy. Where is Blockbuster now?
Ideally, NWBO is under communicating so that the following is set up:
1. We do not have a pre-news run up and instead long term shareholders get an extended chance to load the boat over several months.
2. The huge spike occurs after big news and not before so that the bad history of a huge sell off on news is not repeated. Instead the huge post news price spike draws more journalist eyeballs to our science news which NWBO amplifies through real PR efforts for the first time in almost a decade (assuming ‘don’t front run the FDA’ is not their mantra).
3. NWBO has news queued up to drop at good intervals with amplification to keep too much of spike from being given back.
A smart company management would do that. We’ll see how smart they are in the next few months.
This is almost right. MHRA does establish a visible minimum in that we are not going to apply to FDA until we get MHRA approval in the bag.
"Has anything actually changed for the worse since MHRA submission?"
All else being equal, the answer to that question gives you the answer to whether a shareholder would need to sell.
I suggest the answer is "No, nothing has changed for the worse since MHRA submission."
Still, as always we all have to do our own analysis and decide for ourselves.
We will likely have a permanent and large SP gain on MHRA approval and that makes NWBO a buy at this SP. In my opinion, we are not staying at less than 60 cents upon approval.
Every investor must to decide on their own but for me, if I am willing to let it all ride through that binary decision then I am willing to buy more (though not by taking on debt) at these fire sale prices.
I did not want or ask for this extended wait but if we must endure it and the continuing dilution at this price level, averaging down is at least a nice compensation especially since we’re finally on the clock over at MHRA with limited room for shenanigans.
That said “Don’t front run the MHRA” is likely to seamlessly transition to “Don’t front run the FDA.”
If that does happen, shareholders still likely make a handsome profit on shares bought down here but some of the wilder price projections will be out of the question.
Either way, 2024 is the year we finally get a permanent and positive SP change. Once these prices are gone, they will (finally) be gone.
Ultimately, ‘everything takes longer’ with NWBO and watching this debate has been amusing.
Those of us shareholders who are realistic can just continue to buy more NWBO in good confidence and average down.
We know that even if the SP gets no help from Bethesda and only say doubles or triples on MHRA approval, that puts a lot of us permanently in the green and creates a big profit on those new shares we bought while on the clock for approval. With the way things might drag out, by the time the price hits a very high point where we are willing to sell, the new shares might be taxable as long term gains too.
Not everyone has learned the hard way to stop expecting anything to be soon, let alone have the impact on the SP it should.
The discovery that there are magically newly discovered ‘sub-steps’ to the MHRA process including the potential for ‘off clock’ time is doubtless frustrating to those of us who insist on believing that at some point all that waiting up front should finally buy them a shorter wait on the back end. In a just world it would but if we lived in a just world there would be no GBM and NWBO would not need to exist.
Their frustration can’t be taken out on NWBO or MHRA (not good for their version of the investing thesis) so they take it out on those who point out that with NWBO there are no short cuts.
We will make good money as shareholders in NWBO in 2024 and large numbers of patients will start benefitting in 2025. It will not happen ‘soon’ though.
I remain a buyer as I was in 2023. Others can do what they like, as always. There really isn’t much to say until real news.