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Absolutely the most interesting BK ive ever followed. Never invested a dime post BK though
Lets be real though Larry, that is a stretch
Oh look someone who put money into Breitburn but didn't know it was a LP and don't trade "shares" but trade "units"
Your just lying to this board lol. shares never opened / traded in 6-7 range. neither did the warrants at .01.
Shares opened around 29.5
Ding ding ding!
Responding to Larry / other posters from today,
Guys this is exactly how 99% of bankruptcies play out, and we are seeing it here. Only difference is there is most likely going to be some value to the notes at the end of the day. When they are currently trading at 4-5 cents on the dollar.....
Commons will have some CODI in all 3 scenarios it seems, with preferred having zero CODI (Since they are not units)
At this point, the notes are looking pretty decent, having slumped ridiculously in the past month and given the recent updates.(Institutional selling it seems)
Should be alot of volatility with the notes considering the possible fact that 3 plans might be presented to the court. Regardless, gonna be a crazy couple of court days in the next few months.
It seems that the notes also have a decent chance at a a small recovery in a couple of the possible scenarios/draft draft plans presented. Time will tell I guess.
What lovely drama! I love bankruptcy
so did the extension motion go through, its been a week now and nothing on the docket yet
Preferreds getting interesting today for the second time. First time was close to 20 cents a while back :P
Commons, even at 4 cents, look horrifying based on how desperate the debtors want to undervalue this comp and issue new stock. Preferred equity is pretty close to break even on the high end valuations performed by debtors, so there may be negotiation room here.
Bankruptcy law needs to be re-evaluated.
(and yes I'm caught up with this BK, including todays 8-k and todays responses to the exclusivity motion)
People are jumping ship most likely because of CODI reasons. Can't people who expect breitbrun to have recovery for equity, but not want to deal with CODI, just sell if a plan that hits equity with CODI is confirmed ?
Like bam plan confirmed on a Thursday afternoon, sell Friday.
That is of course if there are any buyers on that Friday..but there are always buyers at .0001
Well the initial POR drafted by the debtors will 99% spell out zero returns for both equity tranches so I don't see how the release of the initial POR will help price in the immediate short term. Short term doesn't really matter in a bankruptcy case imo anyways. Check what happened with peabody. Dropped below 1 after bankruptcy declaration. Once trump was elected, (pro coal administration) the price skyrocketed to $13+. Now it's shares are cancelled at .38 cents. I mean it must have been great for the day traders but the stock eventually was confirmed worthless. Bad news for the long term bk holders (if they exist..)
the debtors have already "valued" breitburn below bringing debt tranches to full value in their fight against the equity committee.
The EC will then most likely argue that the debtors valued the company wrong and a fight will ensue and blah blah then it will be in gods hand from there
Back to the price it was at when oil was sub 30 and no EC. Oh man. Makes you wonder about life
The question that is on EVERYONES mind...
What is the current Share Outstanding #?
Hmmmm
I completely agree, I've done my homework 10x over. even before Breitburn declared bankruptcy I was following, watching, and doing homework.
Was stunned that they declared bankruptcy. But of course they would declare bankruptcy. Drop debt, management incentives, shark lenders (Dip lenders) can steal the company, etc. It happens almost every. single. bankruptcy.
Also, why do you think huge money players were buying bonds? They KNOW breitburn has value, yet stay the **** away from the commons because 9/10 times commons get wiped out. And this wipe out is always led by the debtors and their DIP lenders.
Many times a year a companies equity is wiped out in bankruptcy illegally and that is just how the court system works. Maybe it will be different here but statistically, equity gets screwed over 9/10 EVEN when their is value left.
This judge has acted different then most when it comes to the equity question, and that's nice and all. SEC backing equity committee is new also. But i'm a little pessimistic about US BR court so eh. I hope to god an EC is appointed, I like your "got caught and will pay for it." above all an EC getting appointed would feel like sweet justice. At least in the short term. In the long term hopefully equity gets a meaningful recovery, that would REALLY stick it to the DIP lenders MMMM.
Oh and the bond buyers who thought they were buying the company for 25 cents on the dollar a few months ago. that is still a decent recovery though..
This is looking like a biotech play now hahaha. buy the hype, sell before the news.
I've lost all hope in the bankruptcy system, but you never know though.
Management already got their huge incentives. They aren't stealing equity. The real culprits will always be the Shark lenders (DIP lender) and major bondholders.
These are the real thieves
Ya most likely but depending on the wording of the court and the next few dockets for the equity committee situation, it might be worth it to throw small money. Ya possibly preferred, maybe options, probably not commons because extra risk with CODI issues.
If an equity committee is approved this stock rises and volatility starts imo, but since the risk is so great (ec's virtually never get granted in bankruptcy court) the amount of money invested should be proportionally small
Most likely not,
because time and time again, bankruptcy courts deny equity representation, even when the case is strong for high value. Just statistically this is a lose, but of course every case is unique.
Just look at what management / breitburn lawyers, wells fargo and co (DIP lenders) and the creditors said. They have already stated on paper that Equity will see nothing. Without representation unitholders and preferred holders lives are in the hands of the 3 parties who stated equity will get nothing. Shrug.
Ayeee Larry long time no see. Hope all is well,
Thanks for the reply.
I'm a little worried about buying Breitburn due to the CODI issue.
Options seem the way to go, as I know I can get .5 call options expiring january 17, 2017 for 1 cent (1 dollar per contract), but those would probably expire worthless also as the BK will last well into next year, EC or not. If jan 2018 options existed that would be another story, but would probably be .05 instead of .01 cost. Regardless, court systems show time and time again that equity is always and consistently out of the money, even with proof of value. Shrug.
Bond prices for Breitburn have gone up massively recently. But that is due to many big players like ross trying to pick up breitburn for cheap. These guys know the court system will screw over equity and ignore value..pecking order etc etc.But still. 39 cents on the dollar, might be something to look into.
The EC argument seems STRONG, but knowing all bankruptcies I doubt it will get passed, that's just how the USA court system is. Favors the strong guys like the DIP lenders. (who of course had to let the court know they don't want an EC)
Might just continue to watch this one for another learning opportunity (:
EC hearing 8/18? Any info on it?
Can't find anything on equity past the 18th on the docket.
Let me clarify, 1.5-$2 is fair speculation valuing micro bot at 600 mil or so. That is what we are seeing here, pure speculation on the value of microbot
Plus no way to invest into microbot for now unless you buy STEM. maybe some people have DD on Microbot warranting an investment in STEM.
BUT I think any higher then 2 and that is speculative as **** though. As I said, I doubt Microbot is worth 1 billion?? (approx 3 dollar a share of STEM due to 50 mil mkt cap aka 5% of 1 bil)
You realize Stem Cell MKT cap is 15-20 mil after the run from pennies to 1.5+. 5 % of Microbot, even though a private company so we don't know financials per se, could be worth more then 500 mil plus, which would warrant approx 10 mil valuation of STEM.
I doubt Microbot is worth 1 billion plus (which would value stem at 3 dollars a share or so) but still, this is A FAIR SPECULATIVE PRICE RANGE FOR STEM (1.5-2 dollars)
Why are you doubting the merger will go through?
Wow hah. Hercules offshore in bankruptcy stayed around 5 cents. HEROQ was the ticker. once the company emerged from bankruptcy, HEROQ holders received this,
"The plan also provides for the Company's current shareholders, despite being substantially "out of the money" by approximately $500 million, to have the opportunity to receive a pro rata portion of the remaining 3.1% of the new common equity, as well as certain warrants, subject to the requirements of the Plan and Court approval (all as more fully described in the Plan)."
Source from hercules' website :
ir.herculesoffshore.com/mobile.view?c=192573&v=203&d=1&id=2079397
Once they emerged, ticker for the company changed back to HERO, and the price reset at $14. Anyone holding HEROQ did not see a rise from 5 cents to $14....
Just remember though, Alpha just filed a motion today to approve the disclosure statement and plan voting which highlights common stock being wiped out.
https://www.kccllc.net/alpharestructuring/document/1533896160405000000000031
Motion to approve the disclosure statement / voting procedures / hearing date to accept the plan ^^^
Alpha is going full steam ahead with its plan to sell off majority of its business and hand over what remains of the company to the creditors
I don't mean this in any sarcastic way, but seriously be careful...
https://www.kccllc.net/alpharestructuring/document/1533896160307000000000023
Here is the plan of reorganization and disclosure statement for more info ^^^
No 10-k again on deadline, postponement announcement expected tomorrow?
Sunedison should be in default to some of its debt, but the cure period expires on the same day an extension would end (April 15)
"too big to fail!" huh odega
45 million shares covered? Barely any price movement to support that claim LOL.
45 million straight buying power is a short squeeze simple as that. we have not seen any indicators to assume a short squeeze happened.
There is an open debate that the last day to post the 10-k is actually the 30th, not today.
After market today, tomorrow before market, further delay announced today after market, or further delay announced tomorrow before market.
One of those four things will happen
First of all, nice trade friend. Second of all, I have my doubts about how the share price will react to the 10-k. The market has already priced in a bad earnings report. The guidance / 2016 estimates are what will (can) bring the price up imo.
Something would have to catch the market off guard in order for the 10-k to be negative for share price.
Is the 10-k coming or is it just the 10-q? My point remains the same however for tomorrow's release
IMO
You buying in that range friend?
Magic???
GTATQ, WILL BE PULLING A RAABIT OUT OF A HAT AND BEGIN A HUGE UPWARD MOVE
I called it pretty early. I don't think it's scam if that is how its done in MOST bankruptcies,
Who is looking after equity? and god dam, even CREDITORS. Management? NOPE. They got their bonus' for 2015 and 2016. they could care less.
This is exactly why this BK was a lost cause for equity investors when the Equity Committee was denied in December.
Well ya, it will still be ALPHA. But under new ownership. DIP lenders will own the new alpha. (or whoever bids higher, doubt the DIP lenders will let this one get away though)
OInstead of buying the company for 7 billion of Debt value + whatever the buyer wants to pay for equity ( zero ), a DIP lender(s) can buy a company for 500 million inside bankruptcy! pay 500 mil for the total debt amount + assume SOME liabilities (so maybe pay 500 mil-1 bil in total value? I couldn't tell you without more info)
It's a steal for the DIP lenders, especially if coal rebounds.
This does not sound like business contingency at all. Looks like Alpha is closing the doors?
all assets (including, but not limited to, all mineral rights, fixed and mobile equipment and logistics assets) used or held for use primarily in connection with (i) the Alpha Coal West mine complexes in Wyoming, (ii) the business of Debtor Pennsylvania Land Resources Holding Company, LLC ("PLR"), the Debtors' natural gas business in the Marcellus Shale in southwestern Pennsylvania, and (iii) the McClure, Nicholas and Toms Creek mine complexes in West Virginia and Virginia; (b) all coal operations and reserves located in Pennsylvania, including the Cumberland mine complex, the Emerald mine complex, the Freeport reserves, the Sewickley reserves and all assets used or held for use primarily in connection therewith, including all logistics-related assets; (c) the Debtors' interest in Dominion Terminal Associates and (d) certain other designated assets, including certain working capital (all of which together make up the Reserve Price Assets).
Spent 100 or so mil for the shale business this summer, now packaging it together with CORE alpha assets for a minimum bid of 500 mil. Seems like good news for DIP lenders (like always in bankruptcy) and terrible news for equity/bondholders.
I didn't really expect their to be good news coming from the coal industry / specifically from Alpha Natural after the denial of the Equity committee in December, but DAM I did not expect this.
I know that, I was asking if and WHEN breitburn decides to cancel its preferred distribution (will save them 16 mil or so a year), will those dividends be cancelled forever, or are they DEFERRED?
Pretty sure Preferred Dividends are not cancelled, but "deferred," so if Breitburn is expected to not go bankrupt in 2017 (hedges roll off in 2017) then...
Maybe I am wrong about preferreds being deffered (rhyme INTENDED) someone correct if I am.
Not sure what it was, retail or institutional, but it could be retail. Breitburn so easily follows oil prices, and oil has been going up and down the past few months in an almost insanely predictable pattern.
People are flipping Breitburn like crazy.