Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Video on relief well, it is ahead of schedule.
http://bp.concerts.com/gom/kwellsreliefwells062710.htm
Thanks!
Does anybody know how far out the US can prevent foreign drilling? If the Interior Sec halts drilling for an extended period, can China drill 100 miles out? 200?
Once this well is plugged, I hope they bring the BOP topside and figure out why it failed. Is that possible?
I appreciate your explanation. What you are saying is what is supposed to happen in a market operating "normally". That 1000 point spike on Thursday increased my personal VIX This week there appeared to be some decoupling of the mining stocks from the broad market tankage and that was encouraging. I'm worried that further losses in the major indices will pull down all of the miners no matter how high the gold price goes. Is that an irrational fear?
Money is flowing into the metals etfs. GLD, SLV, CEF, etc are doing well. This is money that went into mining stocks, once upon a time. People moving money to safe havens won't fool around with figuring out which miners have good management, good ROI etc, they go straight to the etfs.
It's an old idea, first used by the Germans, to make gasoline from coal. http://tinyurl.com/yzx48gs
All of the majors have a Fischer-Tropsch process. RTK is selling synthetic fuel to the Air Force.
I am sceptical of the math though. They can convert coal to either light or heavy crude but those crudes are not 100% convertible to gasoline. Also, the Obama regime is antagonistic towards carbon based fuels (and carbon based life forms). But it is an interesting concept.
Seasonal adjustments and census hiring will likely make the March jobs number something in the 300,000 range... That's the estimate from MS and others. Is that already in the market? The market will be closed on that Friday. So there will be a long weekend to absorb the news.
A rep on tv today said that pelosi is 10 votes short of passage, and that means she cannot even get her own party to back this turkey.
Passage would not be good for the overall market, imo. A close vote passage plus the current overbought condition could do more than blow the foam off this market. How about that Aggie basketball team! whoop!
If passed, health insurance companies would be good shorts. Also, drug companies would likely take hits. Med records software companies would do well.
If the current bill is killed, then those companies would have a dark cloud removed and likely go higher. Is that the kind of analysis that you wnat?
191.3 tonnes can be purchased for 7.4 billion dollars at 1100 per ounce. That's nothing compared to the amounts of fiat created every day.
IMF press release on gold sales tanks gold after hours. http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2010/pr1044.htm
Gold Seasonal charts and other commodities also http://www.seasonalcharts.com/future_metalle_gold.html
But the $BPGDM is at the lowest point in more than a year http://tinyurl.com/ygzw9en
And the COT data shows the commercials covering a large piece of their short position while open interest has fallen markedly.
This free site lets you chart the usual indicators for commodities plus the COT and open interest data http://www.timingcharts.com/index.php
TRE- does anybody know what's new with this one? It rose this week on heavier than normal volume but no news. There is nothing in the financials of interest. tia, Gig
Good! PAL is restarting their palladium mine but won't have production until the 2nd quarter. They say they need $400 an ounce to cover their cash costs. The chart shows it breaking out on good volume.
Has anyone a list of the top 10 best takeover targets?
Sinclair needs to expand his reading list. He could start with Bob Prechter and then go to zerohedge.com. Doug Noland is a good read at prudentbear.com. There are plenty of bears out there.
There is another option. http://tinyurl.com/ygjrjl3
http://www.medicaltoursinternational.com/
Intelligence, talent and money flow toward freedom. The best doctors in the U.S. will relocate. Others will refuse to participate in the government plan, just like they are refusing to take medicare patients now.
The fundamentals supporting gold have not changed. There are many articles appearing calling the gold move parabolic or a bubble. Here is a good response with charts. . http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15506.html
Technical corrections will happen, though Friday's move looked overdone and contrived.
China missed the opportunity to buy IMF gold in the 1040 area. Perhaps they are jawboning a bit to get the price lower. They hold massive forex reserves and have stated on many occasions that they wish to diversify away from so much paper. For example here is one quote from a few days ago.
"Yesterday, we picked up the China Youth Daily newspaper in which Ji Xiaonan claimed that "China should increase the amount of gold it holds in reserves to reduce potential losses from a depreciating dollar. We recommend China increase its gold reserves to 6,000 metric tons within three-to-five years and possibly to 10,000 tons in eight to 10 years."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/175911-china-to-increase-its-gold-reserves
Watch what they do. China has not been adding to their US treasury holdings. Notice in this spreadsheet that their holdings have remained flat since May . http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt
They have been making loans and spending money to acquire long term commodities contracts. But they do so when the price suits them. Don't be surprised when these little dips in the price of gold find solid support.
No, and I am unanimous in this.
GLD is an etf that holds bullion. Each share is supposed to represent one tenth of an ounce of gold but there is some slippage due to fees. GDX is an etf that holds mining stocks of mostly large and mid-tier miners. GDXJ just opened this week as an etf the holds junior mining stocks.
CEF is a Canadian etf that holds a mix of gold and silver bullion.
The concept of gearing is great in theory. However, many mining stocks fail the reality test. Gold has doubled from 540 to 1080 since 2006. Charts of miners like AUY and NEM show little to no gains to the buy and hold investor. Large producer stocks that are highly geared to the price of gold like GFI and HMY are below their 2006 prices. Gold doubled in price and GFI is half what it was in 2006. So gearing alone is not enough.
Also, using AUY and AEM as examples, these companies are performing horribly with regard to earnings, showing little or no profit in the most recent quarter, even with gold 100 an ounce higher than the previous quarter. AUY increased production, got a higher gold price and still screwed up their earnings, making 8 cents. yechhh. . I don't think any amount of gearing will save them from their knucklehead CEO.
They all get killed with the broad market when it corrects. Many of them are pathetic at hedging currency risk or base metals. Managements also make bad decisions regarding debt, dilution etc.
So we really have to research which miners are worth holding. EGO and GOLD are great examples of well run mining companies with the charts to prove it. I'm sure that others can point out some juniors that respond to gearing.
Gee, funny how they publish this AFTER the market careens through a guard rail. Perhaps they are very short now. We've heard nothing but hype all summer about the trillions on the sidelines, lol. It's best to trade with no news or tv.
The elliot wave crowd has been banging the drums for a big dollar bounce and a corresponding drop in stocks and commodities.
The short dollar/long anything else trade has been very crowded and was overdue to unwind. What better time than when the treasury and fed need to scare up 150 billion to buy their bills and notes? Next week is the FOMC meeting and also a G20 meeting of finance ministers.
We had options expiry this week for some gold contracts. So far, shorting gold stocks like AUY and SLW has been easy money.
This happens several times a year. Look at the daily chart for Feb to Mar, or late Mar through Apr, or June to July. Trade 'em, don't marry 'em.
I get Fox Business and Bloomberg and one of them, I think it was Fox, was interviewing Bove. . or it could have been a klutz pulling the wrong lever, who knows fer shure?
Dick Bove downgraded WFC with some good reasons. The market tanked shortly thereafter.
The dollar hit a new 52 wk low today at 74.94. That propelled oil above 81 and halted the slide in gold. Commercial oil inventories are high. This move is all in the falling dollar.
How long do you think this take down will last? It's been a heck of a run lately, the correction might take a while.
Gold has not broken out in all currencies. If the dollar bounces, gold will probably fall. Central bank intervention can cause this. So can bad econ news in Euroland or Japan.
Fundamentally, if the US cut spending and raised rates, abandoned Keynesian nonsense, balanced the budget, demolished the fed and made Ron Paul president, gold could easily go to 42 an ounce. ;)
Bernanke spoke of raising interest rates by June '10. The Fed is rehearsing reverse repos. Several Asian central banks intervened in the forex markets, buying dollars to hold down their own currencies. Friday, the BOJ intervened to weaken the yen. Those things boosted the dollar a little and tanked bonds.
well that's as good as my guess. . . I wish they'd knock spot gold down by 40% compared to dec futs. .
Question for the futures wizards.
The Nov natgas contract expires in 3 weeks and is trading around 5 bucks today. Spot natgas rose today to 2.83 at the Henry Hub. Why would someone pay 5 bucks for something to be delivered in 3 weeks when they can buy it now for 40% less?
Jobless Numbers – The Real Ones
Last week the market was shocked by a surprise rise in the number of job losses. Why they were surprised I am not really sure because everyone I talk to daily is telling me things are NOT improving where they are and it is a day-to-day thing as to whether they have a job or not.
However, we should just listen to the Bureau Of Labor Statistics since they are the authority – right? Well maybe not. As it turns out last week they announce they made a minor clerical error. By the way – this was part of the announcement they made last week…the media just conveniently forgot to mention it:
“In accordance with usual practice, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is announcing its preliminary estimates of the upcoming annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey employment series. The final benchmark revision will be issued on February 5, 2010, with the publication of the January 2010 Employment Situation news release.
Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. For national CES employment series, the annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have averaged plus or minus two-tenths of one percent of total nonfarm employment. The preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates a downward adjustment to March 2009 total nonfarm employment of 824,000 (0.6 percent).
Excerpted from a free (with registration) weekly newsletter by Streettalklive.com. These guys also have archived radio shows that are good.
http://www.streettalkadvisors.com/XFactor/100309-Where-Did-The-Green-Shoots-Go.pdf
Consider the chart of the dow vs the monetary base. http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/09/26/chart-of-the-day-dow-jones-vs-the-monetary-base/
Credit is not money. During booms, credit becomes "money like". But during busts, it does not. If you doubt this, consider a simple thought experiment. Before you is a table with two bags. One contains 100k in cash. The other contains a credit card with your name and a 100k credit line that you must pay back. Which one would you choose? If you find yourself always choosing the cash, then perhaps credit is not money.
Inflation is a psychological phenomenon where people lose confidence in their money.
kilowatt8 @ the IV PM board posts " The "inflation" that threatens us has nothing to do with growth or demand; rather it has to do with loss of confidence in the currency as a store of value. It has to do with what happens when the monetary and financial system is exposed for the fraud it is. It has to do with what happens when the authorities lose control. Like all frauds, the system of irredeemable debt will not fade into the sunset, it will implode, virtually over night, Madoff style.
The idea that "deflation" will cause a dollar shortage and a rise in purchasing power of the dollar is equally flawed. Sure, deleveraging will cause dollar demand and the dollar could show strength relative to certain other fading scraps in the basket over the intermediate term, but a true sustained general rise in the purchasing power of the dollar is all but impossible IMO. For one thing the govt/fed don't want that and there is nothing short of popular uprising that would stop them. Also, the coming economic and financial collapse and policy response puts us far past the tipping point. No sane person is going to hoard an ephemeral monetary unit backed by the full faith and credit of economic disaster and rampant devaluation. "
Fed eyes tie-up with mutual funds
By Krishna Guha in Washington and Michael Mackenzie in New York
The fed wants your money market funds...
Published: September 23 2009 23:41 | Last updated: September 23 2009 23:51
The Federal Reserve is looking to team up with the money-market mutual fund industry as part of its strategy to ensure that its unconventional policies to stimulate the economy do not produce a bout of post-crisis inflation.
The central bank envisages eventually draining liquidity from the financial system by engaging in trades called “reverse repos” with the deep-pocketed money-market funds. In these, the Fed would pledge mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries acquired during the crisis as collateral for short-term loans from the funds.
http://tinyurl.com/ycbfpkc
They took a good shot at gold this morning. I expected a $20 down day. Instead we bounced at 995 and closed over 1000. I'm sure part of that was the timely offer by China to buy the IMF gold. But these gold commercials are hitting more like my little sister and less like they used to. The dollar rally was almost all due to the yen. That looks like a BOJ intervention and it was cut nearly in half. The cutoff for the COT data is tomorrow, so maybe these big trading desks are waiting for Wednesday to pound gold down ahead of the fomc announcement. But it looks more and more like somebody with some weight is on the other side (for a change). Bernanke will have to say something about quantitative easing on Wednesday. I'd say after today that the market expects him to keep it going.
KRY has nothing. Unless you think that Chavez will change his mind and give them back the mine in Venezuela, this is a company without a property. Checkout RBY, UXG, maybe GBG and AGT... imo.