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cl, Many Many Thanks for the great info. I wasn't aware of this commodity-rebalancing. Surprised to see a lot of Canadian and Amex natural resource stocks were hitting highs from their Nov'2008 bottoms. I think you are right. This could be a dead cat bounce for commodities and commodity stocks in general except for gold of course , as I feel the bottom in stocks has not been made yet.
After a bad 2008, hoping to recover a small percentage of my losses in this re-balancing phase. You mentioned this would happen for only a week starting this Thursday/Friday. If so, wouldn't the run in commodities get over after rebalancing by the institutions complete in a week around Jan 16th? Do you think the momentum from retail investors could take the run until end of month?
Regards,
crk
Many Thanks.
What other stocks you think that hasn't appreciated much from Nov market bottoms (gold, oil, base metals)?
Thanks in advance,
crk
cl, what would be a good low ball bid here?
cl,
Thanks for your inputs.
cl,
heard him say it may take 5 or 6 years for the oil prices to recover? do you think it may take that long? In your opinion, why do you think POE.v would be beneficary of this scenario? Is it because it can do well even if oil goes down to $10?
Thanks in advance,
Kipp,
Good point about government possibly declaring all the CDS as null and void. That, in my opinion, could begin a cleansing process in the system that is very well overdue. Agreed- that would cause many weak banks, hedge funds and financial institutions to go under and deflate the asset prices further; but as you mentioned that could very well be the final bottoming out process. I would say the government should be doing that now instead of dragging on the inevitable capitulation.
Anyways, I would wait until that happens and remain hedged in my precious metal stock and energy positions with some market/financial shorts, Yen Call and Euro put options.
Good Luck with your strategy.
-crk
kipp,
Thought you were waiting until the de-leveraging of hedge funds due to CDS tsunami is over and the YEN has made a 25% move against the USD? Due to think that last Friday's de-levaraging movement is the bottom for these undervalued juniors?
Thanks in advance for your opinion,
crk
Nuts,
Many Thanks.
nuts,
if you don't mind could you list the call options you mentioned in VMC Motherboard that you are buying these days?
thanks,
crk
hey cl,
are you buying futures now?
cl,
if you have to pick just two best precious metal juniors, which ones would you consider?
thanks,
gold - what an amazing turnaround. It is like rising from the ashes of phoenix.
cl, which ones are you scooping now?
Seems like the pro dollar sentiment since last 2 months have not changed yet. I see a strong correlation of EURO, GBP, commodities with Dollar. Maybe we should consider some EURO and GBP put options to hedge our long commodity positions. What do you think?
cl, do you think this marks the bottom for commodities?
Good call, my friend.
Yeah, you have a good point. Thanks for your analysis.
-crk
I own CS at average price of 3.40. do you think it would be prudent to lighten the position on rallies? if the Treasury puts FNM and FRE in conservatorship without upfront large liquidity injections as some of these news links are reporting, then potential dollar strengthening could further weigh on the commodities?
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/
cl, are you out of Capstone(CS.TO) too?
So does that mean traders are betting on precious metal stocks to go down and financials to go up?
cl, are you into shorting financials these days?
i think you got it right. if you've noticed cl, money seems to be flowing stealthily into agriculture - based on DBA and RJA charts. In the past deleveraging cycles that we have seen, initially gold was the benficiary, then came oil and now looks like it is Ag commodities. Seems like the big money is like a swarm of bees moving to whichever commodity it sees attractive. Denis Gartman is also now big on grains....
cl,
Thanks for your inputs. I just bought some AUY 12.50 call leap options. That was an excellent timing of yours - grab profits yesterday and renter today. how did you get a feel that there is a dip coming? your intuition is quite amazing.
Thanks,
crk
Are you buying any PM stocks today? AUY filled in the gap from yesterday. Do you think it is a good entry point or wait for some confirmation?
Thanks,
crk
cl, do you own any shares of VGZ (Vista Gold)? Any thoughts?
Between ROY and VGZ, which one do you find more compelling?
Thanks,
crk
cl, Thanks for the tips. I really admire and respect your skill and intution. You are right when you say technical can't work without fundamentals.
Do you look at 14 day RSI or does the period vary for different stocks? Also, do you consider the standard 70 and 30 RSI values for overbought and oversold conditions?
What are the other indicators and chart patterns do you use?
Thanks,
crk
wow,
you are really blessed to have such friends. maybe one day you will retire through your skills and intution and I can consult with you then as well so I can retire too - just kidding about my retiring part, the part about you retiring before the end of commodity bull run is very much possible, with the way you are doing- buy low, sell high
if you don't mind, can I ask what technical indicators and approach you and your friends follow? Really, I would like to hook with you and your friends learn how this is all done. I know there are plenty of material on the web, talking about various indicators - but none seem to work all the time. ofcourse I know technical has to be combined with fundamentals. but often, we see good stocks get beaten down.
In such cases, technicals really help.
Hope you don't mind sharing some of this info.
Thanks,
crk
cl, Thanks for the response. Regarding your technical gurus, are they the same newsletter writer friends you mentioned or a service you subscribe to?
Thanks,
crk
cl,
Do you subscribe to any e-mails that analyze bottoms in PM?
If so, please share if you don't mind.
Thanks,
crk
Imake,
I am interested in options too, and have traded here and there with not much success so far. if you don't mind, could you share your success with options such as %profits vs. %profit so far. Also, what is your strategy, tools and research?
Thanks,
crk
thanks. i will check it out.
cl, are you planning to enter this play?
thanks,
crk
cl, with reference to your post in VMC Motherboard, do you think precious metals and precious metal stocks would still do good in the event of oil going down to 100? How about natural gas plays, especially the utica shale. I am a bag holder in the utica plays hoping for a rebound.
thanks,
crk
congrats. that was a good one.
I have some options expiring in Dec'08. what would you recommend.?
cl,
what do you think about SLW's earnings? Their net earnings are flat but shows increase in operating cash flow. do you think it is time to add? any opinions would be appreciated.
thanks,
crk
cl, nuts, bobwins,
do you guys think there is more correction coming up for oil? if so what level you think it could be bottoming at? have you hedged against your energy/commodity long positions with any put options or short strategies? there is a possibility for oil to fall below the $110 level. i think we need to have some hedging strategies. what do you guys think?
thanks,
crk
cl,
Many Thanks for the update.
-crk
cl, other than POE.v, which ones do you think would be a bargain at these levels? Also, when do you plan to cover your oil shorts?
Thanks,
cl,
you think this energy correction has some more to go?
Today, I got burned by the CHK (Sept'08 options) that I purchased two days ago. Do you think it would be better to sell and maybe get in after the earnings report on July 31 when they would be reporting a loss due to hedging?
Thanks,
crk
OT: Did the Cashflow Heaven option service work well for you? I your old posting in "Cashflow Heaven 2005" forum. Wondering if you are still subscribed to them and have any opinions?
Thanks