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Amerigo Resources (ARREF) reports
Amerigo Resources is a copper producer (with a small amount of molybdenum). They are not a big producer, and they are not growing fast. But they have a useful dividend (a little over 7% at current prices). They reported a positive quarter and year today:
https://www.amerigoresources.com/_resources/news/nr-20240410.pdf?v=0.1
A few highlights:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Q1-2024 copper production of 16.0 million pounds, 2% over guidance
Q1-2024 normalized cash cost1 of $1.89 per pound, beating guidance by 9%
$3.7 million dividend to shareholders in Q1-2024
VANCOUVER, British Columbia, April 10, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Amerigo Resources Ltd. (TSX: ARG; OTCQX: ARREF) (“Amerigo” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce production results for the quarter ended March 31, 2024 (“Q1-2024”) from Minera Valle Central (“MVC”), the Company’s 100% owned operation located near Rancagua, Chile. Dollar amounts in this news release are in U.S. dollars (“USD”) unless indicated otherwise.
“We are pleased to report a strong first quarter. Copper production of 16 million pounds was 2% over guidance, molybdenum production of 324,00 pounds was 4% over guidance, and our normalized cash cost of $1.89 per pound was 9% below our guided annual cash cost. These results reflect our commitment to operational excellence and cost management, which are key drivers of our financial performance," said Aurora Davidson, Amerigo’s President and CEO.
“The current combination of excellent operational results from MVC and strengthening copper prices are similar to 2021. Then, the substantial operational cash flow generated by the Company positioned us to refinance and reduce our bank debt and roll out Amerigo’s very successful Capital Return Strategy. Today, three years later, Amerigo’s considerably stronger balance sheet will allow these anticipated cash flows to be further focused on our Capital Return Strategy. With a secure quarterly dividend currently yielding over 8%, we are excited about distributing significant additional capital to investors as copper prices continue to rise on favorable supply/demand dynamics,” she added.
TGB is my largest copper holding
I also own:
ARREF (which has a dividend)
ASCUF (very speculative, not yet a producer)
HHLKF ("Hot Chile" copper. Not yet producing, but possibly a good resource)
FQVLF (first quantum: producing)
CSCCF (Capstone: I sold most of this one too early)
The following stocks in my portfolio produce copper, but not as their main output
FCX (copper is a decent fraction of output)
NGLOY (world's largest platinum producer, but has a decent amount of copper)
GLNCY (copper is only a small fraction of its output)
VALE (copper is only 4% of output--biggest iron order producer in the world)
GPOR: I bought too
> a surprising selloff after the blockbuster earnings. Energy sector is very weak today
> on plunging crude oil prices but GPOR is nearly all NatGas and NG price are higher
> today .....
I've owned GPOR off-and-on before their reorganization/bankruptcy. Your post reminded me that I had lost track of the company. I'm generally bullish on natural gas for the next few years. Their numbers were pretty impressive. I bought a small starter position on the sell-off today.
I plan on buying more, but I think this schizophrenic market will give us some even better buying opportunities in the energy space over the next few months.
Thanks for reminding us about GPOR.
JWB
SBSW reports strong results
SBSW is not a small cap stock. But there seems to be interest about SBSW on this board, so it's worthwhile to mention that today they reported record sales. Here's the kitco version:
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-03-03/Sibanye-Stillwater-reports-record-financial-results-for-2021.html
You can get the full report from the SBSW company web site:
https://www.sibanyestillwater.com/news-investors/
Disclosure: SBSW is my largest miner holding, and about 4% of my portfolio
Bmrboy: yes, I hold FTCO
The dividend has kept me in the stock. I'm also speculating on a rebound in gold. But I'm not in the camp that thinks gold will skyrocket.
This post by SKILLZ on the Junior Minors board nicely sums up my opinion of FTCO:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=167990332
BBOTCS: VTRS Reports Earnings
Yesterday (Aug. 9), Viatris reported earnings. Their news release can be found here:
https://investor.viatris.com/static-files/4dd50ba9-7659-457a-8514-7a9d2818a2f7
and the 10Q can be accessed here:
https://investor.viatris.com/static-files/bac2228c-25ae-487b-82f5-bd77ab5c21a8
The earnings report confirmed that they are a solidly run company in a slow growth industry. VTRS management modestly upped their guidance on sales, cash flow, etc.
The report didn't make me want to sell the stock. But I am not encouraged to buy new shares, either. I will hold it until I need the cash to buy some bargain. The newly declared dividend rate (0.11/share/quarter) is 2.91% at today's share closing price.
BBOTCS: my simple thoughts on VTRS
I too got my initial VTRS shares from the spin-off. I've additionally bought and sold shares since then to reach about a 0.7% portfolio weight. My current shares are under water, but I'm about break even overall.
This stock is a puzzle to me. On the surface, it seems to be absurdly undervalued, with its current P/E under 5 and a 3% dividend yield. No doubt that its main business of generic and biosimilar drugs sales will not be fast-growing, and so it probably deserves a commodity-like P/E. But perhaps an 8 P/E is more appropriate.
So, either the market just hasn't woken up to the value in this stock, or pharmaceutical experts (and that is clearly not me) know that somehow Viatris' business is going to slow down appreciably in the future.
The next earnings announcement will occur on Aug. 9. I currently plan to hold the stock until the earnings of the following quarter are announced. By then the market should either wake up to the value here, or I will learn that this is a value trap.
Good luck with your VTRS shares.
Blindman: Predicting the future of energy prices is the original widow's maker trade.
Here's my current thinking about about the price of transportation energy over the next decade, and what it might mean for EV adoption. But the only thing for sure about my predictions is that they will certainly be wrong.
Because of the oil price bust that started in 2014, and accelerated in the last 2 years, the underinvestment in oil/gas production during this period will come back to bite us in the next 3 years. I see elevated oil prices (relative to the last 3 years). I think the calls for $100/barrel prices are misguided, as OPEC+ still has quite a bit of spare capacity, and more Iranian oil is likely to hit the market in the near future. But $70-$75 on an ongoing basis is not unreasonable. This will certainly provide support for vehicle electrification. Note that in addition to investing in materials for the next generation of energy, I'm heavily invested in certain types oil producers. While the easy money has been made in this area in the last 6 months, I see lots of doubles in these stocks over the next 3 years. But then it will likely be time to get out.
But my current guess is that in a 4+ couple of years, we are likely to start to see bottlenecks in both the U.S. electrical grid and potentially in key battery materials (like lithium).
Let me take a tangent on the U.S. grid. This part of my prediction I am quite certain about, except for the timing. The U.S. grid is creaky, and in many places, failing. The U.S. needs to invest in, and upgrade its grid, even if EVs are a flop. The continued computerization of U.S. life and industry demands a rock solid grid. Opponents of EVs claim that the U.S. grid will not be able support the future EV charging demand. These skeptics are partly right, but focusing on the wrong problem. Our current creaky grid will start to fray during extreme weather events as vehicle charging goes up.
But, the barriers to the next generation grid that can support EVs and the further electrification of U.S. industry are political, not technical. Here's a simple fact that points toward the future. More than 50% of the energy generated at electrical power plants is lost during transmission over power lines. If we cut that power loss by more than half, we can power all of the future EVs that Americans may want just from recouping transmission losses. That is because the original design of the U.S. grid emphasizes large central power plants that could be reliable 24/7 energy sources. The grid designers were willing to accept big inefficiencies because fossil fuel was cheap, and consumers wanted to be able to turn on their lights any time of day/night with near 100% reliability.
Unfortunately, that original vision is breaking down, even without the advent of EVs. Brownouts/blackouts are more frequent. There are many different causes behind these problems, but they can largely be accounted for by out-of-date infrastructure and poor regulatory design.
The future U.S. grid will consist of "micro-grids." That is, many more sources of electricity will be distributed throughout local communities, instead of being localized in large power plants. This makes the grid more reliable, because failure in the smaller power plants can usually be overcome by power sharing from nearby grids. Also, by cutting down the transmission distance, energy transmission efficiency goes way up, and so it is easier to power new loads, like EVs, without increasing the overall energy consumption. Microgrids also make it easier to incorporate local power opportunities, like hydro in the northwest or solar in the southwest and southeast. Moreover, micro-grids are more flexible when it comes to rapid changes in population growth or density.
Here's the big problem. The micro-grid future is directly in opposition to the interests of almost every large power company in the U.S. Power companies will not want to give up their highly centralized control over the production and distribution of energy. They have powerful lobbyists. So, here is the part of my prediction you can count on. Sometime in the next 10 years, there will start to be big battles between the interests of large power companies and the interests of consumers who want reliable grids, reasonable electricity costs, and the ability to home charge their EVs.
In progressive states (east and west coasts), the battles will be more quickly won by the consumers, and they will move more quickly to micro-grids. The transition will be fraught with some hiccups, and probably with some large surcharges to consumers to pay for reconfiguring the grid. Deep red states and Texas will stick with the traditional model. In a few cases, some exceptionally well run utilities (like NEE) will be smart, and reconfigure themselves into a grid of micro-grids run by a single corporate entity.
During this transition period, electricity rates may go up substantially in some areas, and the owners of gasoline cars will feel like geniuses. But, in my opinion, this will be a temporary situation. Once the upfront cost is absorbed for the micro-grid transition, electricity costs should stabilize and become reasonable. Moreover, the states that stuck with traditional energy grid designs will eventually start to regret their choice. It's just too costly and cumbersome to maintain 100% always-on electricity reliability with large centralized power plants and vast distribution networks. The power plants have amazing reliability. the power distribution system does not. Micro-grids naturally assume that parts of your system are always breaking down, and can compensate.
So, let's get back to your original question. My WAG is that oil prices will be quite firm for the next 3 years, which will benefit EV owners. Then I predict there will be hiccups in the grid that benefit gasoline owners.
But, as electrification advances, the growth in fossil fuel demand will slow. Oil will be with us for a long time as a transportation fuel. But as soon as demand growth stops (and my current estimate is a peak in demand by 2030), oil becomes uninvestable, except for those seeking dividends. Look at coal. we are using about as much coal worldwide as we ever have. But since coal demand is no longer growing, coal companies are going bankrupt left-and-right.
Right now I am invested in both sides of the EV debate. But I currently expect that fossil fuels will only provide exceptional investing opportunities for the next 3 years. But more importantly, my investing strategy is to assume that I will certainly be wrong, and try to adapt as best as I can to what will likely be an interesting transition in the next 15 years.
Most EV manufacturers sell their own charging stations.
But there is a growing market for smart home chargers from a variety of after-market providers. Most of the after-market providers seem to be small private companies, or small divisions of larger companies.
Alas, it appears that my $180 price may be too low and out of date with respect to the current market. I apologize if I got people too excited by the low price. But that's what I paid at the time I bought our Tesla Model 3. We purchased our home charging station directly from Tesla as an option at the time of purchase. As far as I know, Tesla makes their own charging stations. Their current price is $500.
https://shop.tesla.com/product/wall-connector
I don't know of any public companies whose business model is strictly focused on the home chargers. Most of the investable EV charging space is focused on building charging networks for people that can't charge at home, or that need to recharge while on long distance travels. BLNK seems to be the leader in that space. NVVE is a recent SPAC conversion that works in that space. I've lost money on that one.
The Ford Mustang Mach-E looks promising. That model wasn't around when we looked for an EV. But several of my friends are currently kicking the tires on that model right now, and I think it will be a serious competitor to Tesla.
I've owned CPPMF, and will likely buy again soon.
I sold it recently to fund some other purchases. But I believe in the company, and will very likely restock the copper shelves of my portfolio with CPPMF when I see the next good buying opportunity.
The U.S. has abnormally cheap natural gas.
From a heating perspective (BTU content to be technical), burning 6 mcf of natural gas is equivalent to burning 1 barrel of oil. 6 mcf of nat. gas in the U.S. costs less than $20, while the equivalent oil barrel is ~$65. So, heating your house with natural gas will always be cheaper than any other form of heating--electricity, oil, or coal.
Coal proponents would have you believe that U.S. coal production is dying as a result of regulation. That's garbage. It's dying because it's more expensive than natural gas in the U.S., since the U.S. is oversupplied as a result of the shale fracing revolution. Why pay more for coal, AND get extra pollution (most of the earth's mercury pollution comes from coal) and CO2?
A lot of U.S. electricity production comes from natural gas. But, that gas has to be burned in a power plant combuster (where the combustion efficiency is much better than your home gas furnace), then it heats steam, which turns a generator. The electricity from the generator output is then sent over power lines, where it loses on average about 50% of the power to transmission losses.
So, strictly from a cost perspective, it's much cheaper to just burn the natural gas in your home (at an unimpressive efficiency ratio), rather than converting it to electricity and transporting it long distances. On the other hand, it's easier to capture CO2 and noxious combustion byproducts in a central power plant.
Electrically-driven geothermal heat pumps (with heat exchanging pipes buried somewhat deep under your house) are approaching natural gas costs. And in warmer, sunnier climates of the southwest and parts of the southeast, where home solar photovoltaic is effective, you can compete with natural gas if you use electricity produced on your roof top to run the heat pump. The heat pump works in reverse in the summer when you need air conditioning.
Of course, insulation and weatherproofing are usually the most cost-effective home heating investments.
Thanks for sharing FIII/ELMS.
I wasn't aware of them. I'll check them out. I am mainly playing the energy transition via the resource angle:
1) Lithium miners: LAC, NTTHF, STLHF, PILBF, LIACF
2) Copper producers: SCCO, FCX, FQLVF, TGB, CSFFF, CHKKF, KDKCF, TBXXF
3) Tin Producers: AFMJF, ELTLF, MLXEF, SBWFF
4) Platinum Group metals (for hydrogen catalysis): SBSW, NKORF, ANGPY, NGLOY, GENMF, IMPUY
5) Misc. battery & rare earth materials: NNOMF, EURMF, UAMY, ALMTF, EOSE, MP
6) Uranium: CCJ, DNN, LEU, URNM
I've dabbled a bit in the direct EV space (TSLA, NIO, XPEV), but I feel more comfortable with the materials investments.
Even if you don't believe in EVs, everyone should have tin, copper, and platinum group metals on their radars. We'll be using more and more of them as our world continues to computerize.
Charging an electric vehicle at home is trivial, despite what skeptics think, and it is MUCH, MUCH, MUCH, easier than going to the gas station.
You'll want to have a 200 amp service to your house. A 100 amp service will work, but could crimp your usage if you are trying to run your air conditioning, washing machine, and car charging at the same time.
Your electrician just runs a separate 220 Volt, single phase line from your breaker box to a convenient point in your garage. The cost of that line will depend upon the relationship between your breaker box location and your garage. Then you need a ~$180 dollar charging station, which is smaller than a lunchbox. You usually mount it on your garage wall. It has a cord (you can get different lengths to suit your needs) to connect to the car's charging receptacle. The separate circuit will have its own breaker in case anything goes wrong with the charging unit.
When you pull into your garage, you just stick the charging cable into the car's charging receptacle, which is usually located in the rear of the car. Total time to plug in the car is at most 3-4 seconds. It charges overnight (and the charging process will shut itself off when the battery is topped up), or until you need to use the car next, and must disconnect the charging cord. Total time to unplug the car and stow the cable is about 1-2 seconds.
So, instead of waiting in line at a gas station, paying with a credit card or cash, you just spend a total of 4-6 seconds every time you pull your car in an out of your garage. You pay for your electricity at the end of the month, as part of your regular electricity bill.
You never have to worry if your car is gassed up. Just hop in your car and go every morning, knowing that your car is fully topped up. And when Russian hackers shut down your local gasoline pipeline, you have no worries. Of course, in a blackout, you can't charge. But note that electrical blackouts usually are shorter in duration than pipeline outages, unless you live in Texas. And, during a power outage, gasoline pumps don't work anyway. But you can usually charge your phones from your car during a blackout, unless you've totally run down your battery.
If you live in an apartment, where you can't modify the electricity, then it is much more difficult, and you have to go to a charging station. So, at present, electric cars are not great for apartment dwellers, or very urban city dwellers who must park on the street. But if you have your own garage and electricity service, then you will save yourself HOURS every year by the simplicity of home charging. Also, no tune ups or oil changes.
And the equivalent cost to power your car is, for almost everyone, lower than buying gasoline. If you live in a high gasoline tax state (California, NY, NJ, etc.), it is a significant savings over gas. In S. Carolina, it's less significant. And if you live in Europe, it is a no-brainer to get an electric car. That's why 40% of car sales in Europe over the last year were electric. Europeans take trains or planes for long distances, and so a cheaper electric car with a dinky 200 mile range is more than enough for the vast majority of Europeans, and is now cost competitive with gas in Europe.
Battery costs are coming down fast, and range will continue to go up. My own estimate, is that electric vehicles will have a total lower cost of ownership compared to gasoline in 5-7 years for almost everyone who owns their own garage, and can charge at home. Last year, Consumer Reports (not known to be a left-wing journalistic source) compared the cost of owning a Tesla Model 3 and a comparably priced BMW over a typical 10 year ownership period. The Tesla came out $13,000 ahead in total ownership cost, even though the started the same. Of course, BMW maintenance is very expensive. Now, I don't think the Model 3 is as luxurious as the comparable BMW. But you get the gist: lower energy costs and lower maintenance costs over time really add up.
People who think electric vehicles will not be successful aren't doing the math and aren't paying attention.
Bought VTRS
I added a small amount of VTRS ($13.10) to my currently under-water position. If the company hits their 2021 guidance, then the stock sells for less than 7 times free cash flow, 3 times EBITDA, and well under a 10 P/E.
JWB
Some Hydrogen picks
This Seeking Alpha article describes some possible investments in hydrogen
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4410149-how-to-invest-in-hydrogen-part-2-top-picks
The P/Es of many of these stocks are a bit too high for me. So I play hydrogen indirectly by investing in platinum/paladium producers: these metals are used as catalysts in hydrogen production. SBSW is not a microcap, but it meets the "value" threshold, and pays a dividend. It is a top two producer of platinum and paladium. It also produces Rhodium, Indium, and is a 1,000,000 oz/year gold producer.
SKILLZ: I'm with you on VTRS
This seems so undervalued. I'm guessing that hedge funds are piling on shorts after the last earnings report. My current modest position is quite under water. Since I think the market is about to go through a downdraft, I'm not buying yet. I have some "stink bids" at ranges from $12.50 to $13.10. We may not get there.
Opinion yes, facts no.
Everyone is entitled to an opinion, but facts are facts. Electoral inspectors were able to observe in all PA precincts. But courts mandated that they stay 6 from poll workers, which is appropriate for social distancing in a pandemic.
https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2020/11/06/pennsylvania-vote-counting-lawsuits/
The democrat poll observers were under the same restrictions. There's a big gap in facts between "we don't like social distancing in the poll observation" to "we weren't allowed in".
Do you wonder why Trump's lawsuits are going nowhere? Because the facts his campaign tweets and the ones they have to present in court are far different.
Like his entire career, Trump will continue to retweet these entirely false facts over-and-over again even though he knows they are false. His goal is slow dissent and confusion for his own personal gain. Bah, I'm so happy that we will be rid of this cancer.
RE: SBSW gapped higher today.
SBSW put out a form 6-K and an operating update to "warn" the market that their next earnings will be substantially higher year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter (as is required for stocks listed on the Johannasburg stock exchange):
http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20200814/A2LZD22C822232X222292CZ2S4DVZ2224722/
Bobwins,
> Market is risk averse so big cap gold stocks have done the best. That
> means GDX has done relatively well vs small cap miners. Within the big
> caps, I like GFI. It's a South African miner with mines in Australia,
> South Africa and Peru. Produces over 2 million oz/yr.
What are you thoughts on SBSW? It's more of platinum/palladium producer than a gold producer, and it seems to trade more in line with the prices of those metals. It took a whacking today, along with palladium prices, which are likely down due to their industrial relevance.
My Poll Response
I've owned FECOF for nearly 3 years. Unfortunately, I see this stock as dead money for 2014. However, I don't think 2014 will be an uneventful year. I expect tensions in the east and south China seas to continue to escalate. My hope is that by the end of the year we will get a much clearer picture about how the power struggles are likely to be resolved. If my predictions have any validity to them at all, then 12 months from now I expect to make the key decision about remaining invested, or abandoning ship.
But I'm rarely ever right.
JWB
RE: MMT.v/MAUXF released a VERY NICE quarterly report
Wade needs this red meat to throw at the mob of shareholders who are angry about the pipeline delays.
JWB
"It takes time to be a ground breaker. And there is lots for Orbite to prove."
ORT.TO reminds me of one of my favorite Warren Buffett phrases:
"In ancient Roman coliseums, the earliest Christians got the best lions"
Fortunately, I don't have a large ORT.TO position, so the current downdraft doesn't hurt so badly. Of course, my largest position is Mart Resources--so I'm having a really lousy spring.
JWB
Dr. Air: I bought MND.TO on your reco.
My position is small (just 0.6% of my portfolio), but I got it at $0.98/share. It is by FAR the best performing prec. metal stock in my portofio. Needless to say, I'm very happy to far. Thanks again for the recommendation.
I have a bunch of "stink bids" sitting at $0.91/share. If we get the washout in gold stocks that I'm expecting later this year, then I'll end up owning a lot of MND.
GLTA
JWB
Bought PVG and Petaquilla today.
Already hold a good size, and quite underwater, position in AUNFF. Don't forget CSI.TO on your list. I think it is also "stupid cheap" at these prices.
PVG: Me too
I've been buying small amounts of PVG at this level also. If it drops into the 7's, then I will back up the truck. GLTA
JWB
Poseidon shown to be a fraud.
I drank the coolaid on this one, and bought for what seemed like an upward rising path of dividends. The first drop you see in the charts occurred when they reported revenues way below expectations. That's when I sold, for a 50% loss. the downward churn after that is largely a function of stock holders realizing that there was probably significant misrepresentation of sales and profits.
The crash today was driven by the news release confirming fraud: the company's own internal audit shows that about 80% of the purported revenue over the last year "shouldn't be relied upon."
I expect you'll see some jail time for the key figures involved in the accounting irregularities.
So while the fraud is now out in the open, and presumably the bad apples will be soon ejected from the company, I wouldn't buy this, even as a speculation. They are in a very competitive market segment, and at best the company will be in turmoil over the next year fighting shareholder law suits. IMO, you should let the dust settle on this one.
JWB
>> "Pick the day JBII trades below $1.00
>> My JBII guess: 08/15/10"
Look at the chart dude. It went below $1.00 even before my estimated date. I OVERESTIMATED how much the JBII faithful could keep the stock aloft-not understimated.
The stock transfer notes of the preferred stock are worthless facts. All sophisticated hedgies short the common when they have preferrred in order to lock in gains. They can then convert to the common at leisure. Keeping the preferred allows them better voting rights.
I didn't short at $0.80--much higher at $0.97. At today's close of $1.29, I don't see this as "hundreds of percent loss." I've already shorted this very succesfully during the first nose dive, then again when it rose above $3, and then again during its last blip above $2. So far I'm ahead in my trading war on JBII. My current position is not even a flesh wound.
Yes, I'll grant you that it's a bitch to short a cult-stock. But not impossible.
Just sticking to the facts.
>> Shorting JBII may very well change your zipcode
Yes, I dare say that over the long run, shorting JBII will improve my zipcode.
I'm still long my 5,000 share short. This is chump change, and worth the price of admission to the antics in the surreal world of the JBII faithful.
I have to hand it to the JBII cult-members--it's brilliant to run up the stock after the SEC announcement. There's no more negative news, nor in fact any news, which will likely hit the wires for several months, and so the stock price can be pushed around in a vacuum. No doubt the holders of the last private placement are gleefully dumping their stock right now (I didn't see any lock-up restrictions in the NR, but perhaps I'm wrong).
The last private placement at 40% of the market price will keep the company afloat for several months until the long awaited announcement of "cash-flow breakeven." I can't wait to to see the verbal gymnastics that will accompany that news release. Of course, we still see private placements for even lower valuations after that.
I've been a very minor member of the VMC community since the raging bull days. I've gained an ENORMOUS amount of benefit from my lurking here. So as to not sully the fine community that Bobwins et. al. have created here, I henceforth will not make any comments about JBII. I will merely post summaries of my purchases or sales/shorts of JBII. Just the facts. Hopefully, this will allow us to keep focused on more important matters.
Shorted 5,000 JBII at Schwab
Seems like they have enough inventory to short small amounts.
My fair value estimate for JBII is $0.03/share. May take a while to get there, but it will.
MMT.V -- Pipeline down.
The pipeline used by MMT to send oil to market was shut down yesterday by AGIP (the pipeline owner). No firm date as to when the pipeline will be restarted.
There is no news release by Mart. Instead, another one of the pipeline users released a news announcement.
JWB
RE: Chalice--special dividend.
Looks like Chalice wants to give $0.10/share back to shareholders as a special dividend.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chalice-announces-proposed-capital-reduction-140900524.html
AOI.V/AOIFF.PK takes a beating today.
Anyone know of any news or insight that would explain Africa Oil's 15% drop today? The technicals were way over-extended, and so this may be nothing more than volatility pay-back for prior gains. In any case, I caught a few falling AOI.V knives today. Where do we bottom?
JWB
ATPG
Back in the depths of the 2009 market plunge, ATPG was also in the 3's. The market is betting that the toxic combination of lower oil prices, mediocre (at best) management, and very high debt load may prove to be a mortal blow to ATPG. I've been in-and-out of ATPG over the last few years. Currently, I'm not invested since it's increasingly unclear to me that ATPG will survive in its current form. At some point the stock may get low enough to be equivalent to a call option.
CYAN--algae stock
Cyanotech (CYAN) is a profitable algae stock. But they transform algae into food products, and not energy. Perhaps they will move into energy some day?
Unfortunately, I sold this one too soon.
JWB
SDCJF: I added today.
Added an amount equal to 1% of my portfolio. Will probably add some more soon, and I will back up the truck if it goes below $0.50 (I'm not expecting that though). Perhaps some bad news leaked to insiders, but I'm going on the assumption that its weakness is due to overall weakness in the commodity sector. BWTFDIK
FECOF future revenue estimates
>
> FECOF .0275 Did we just get $1.4 Billion of Net Future Revenue certified by Chapman Petroleum Engineers LTD?
>
> Can you look at the 51-101 and let me know if I am correct here? TIA
>
I'm not Bobwins, but here's my read on the 51-101F1.
Page 3 states that at a 10% discount rate, the future net revenues is 1.4 million (not billion). This is consistent with the proved and probable reserves of 38,000 barrels of light/medium oil on page 2, and a net present value of 1.4 million (using 10% discount rate) in the lower table of page 2.
If I recall correctly, the total number of outstanding shares is roughly 220,000,000. This suggests that based strictly on a valuation method of proved and probable reserves, FECOF.OB's current share value is 0.66 cents/share. Since FECOF.OB closed at 3 cents/share today, the market is expecting upside due to exploration, or FECOF has other assets to support the 4.5 price-to-book value.
Disclosure--0.8% of my portfolio is invested in FECOF. I'm hopeful about FECOF's future, but I don't think the share price can move up much beyond the current value until the exploration upside potential is better clarified and understood by the market.
JWB
San Gold (SGR.TO/SGRCF.PK) on the move
Up about 8% on healthy volume. I don't see any news to explain today's move. Any ideas?
I used to own a lot of this stock, but I got tired of waiting for them to get their production act together. I keep a small cache of shares just to stay on top of this company. Maybe it's time to reload?
JWB
I was planning to drop this board...
when I saw your post today. I'm no expert in direct futures investments. It's pretty clear that the grains will be a very volatile and potentially very lucrative trade in the next 2-3 years for those that can divine the technicals of these wild markets. Technical trading skill is above my pay grade, but I like to watch the action from the sidelines.
Good luck.
P.S.: if you've found another active board on the agriculturals, could you let us know? Thanks.
JWB
Tika: MNAP.OB
I've been holding a small stake in this one for the last 18 months. I had a larger stake in the beginning, but fortunately I shifted it to MMT.V and IAE.V (thanks to this board). I keep a small stake just as an alarm clock to wake me up when things start happening. On paper, there is lots of promise yet to be realized in this stock. But patience is required, and perhaps more than one catalyst must be realized to get the market interested again in this company.
Views on the TVI/TGE merger?
I spent the last hour trying to come to grips with TVI.TO's odd merger announcement--a copper/zinc/gold company buys a financially strapped energy company (on the verge of insolvency) at a 78% premium. Only when I came across the fact that the CEO of TVI and the CEO of TGE are the same person did I realize the rationale for this odd merger. While it appears that TGE has some fine resource potential in the ground, the blatant self-dealing of this merger leaves a bad taste in my mouth. I plan to lighten up on my TVI investment, and to henceforth view TVI as a trading stock, rather than an investment.
While even a self-dealing CEO probably can't screw up too much during the current bull market in copper and oil, in the long run such blatant disregard for shareholders is a strong predictor of poor stock price performance.