Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Looks like the Chinese are trying to run up our food costs by bidding up cattle, grains, and dumping their favorite rice, soybean, pork.
Stop trying to drive traffic to your site
Great! Even i am interested in such topics! But before that i want to say that you know how a poultry gets feeded? It is Eco-friendly and economically a growth? As i am specialist over this i want to know more about such usage on how actually it is processing? Can anyone find me!
I got an info regarding animal feed additives people go for best manufacturers like Tex Biosciences who are trusted players all over India in the industry!
Great! Even i am interested in such topics! But before that i want to say that you know how a poultry gets feeded? It is Eco-friendly and economically a growth? As i am specialist over this i want to know more about such usage on how actually it is processing? Can anyone find me!
I got an info regarding animal-feed-additives people go for best manufacturers like Tex Biosciences who are trusted players all over India in the industry!
Great! Even i am interested in such topics! But before that i want to say that you know how a poultry gets feeded? It is Eco-friendly and economically a growth? As i am specialist over this i want to know more about such usage on how actually it is processing? Can anyone find me!
I got an info regarding animal-feed-additives people go for best manufacturers like Tex Biosciences who are trusted players all over India in the industry!
Great! Even i am interested in such topics! But before that i want to say that you know how a poultry gets feeded? It is Eco-friendly and economically a growth? As i am specialist over this i want to know more about such usage on how actually it is processing? Can anyone find me!
I got an info regarding animal-feed-additives people go for best manufacturers like Tex Biosciences who are trusted players all over India in the industry!
Great! Even i am interested in such topics! But before that i want to say that you know how a poultry gets feeded? It is Eco-friendly and economically a growth? As i am specialist over this i want to know more about such usage on how actually it is processing? Can anyone find me!
I got an info regarding animal-feed-additives people go for best manufacturers like Tex Biosciences who are trusted players all over India in the industry!
Great! Even i am interested in such topics! But before that i want to say that you know how a poultry gets feeded? It is Eco-friendly and economically a growth? As i am specialist over this i want to know more about such usage on how actually it is processing? Can anyone find me!
I got an info regarding animal-feed-additives people go for best manufacturers like Tex Biosciences who are trusted players all over India in the industry!
Great! Even i am interested in such topics! But before that i want to say that you know how a poultry gets feeded? It is Eco-friendly and economically a growth? As i am specialist over this i want to know more about such usage on how actually it is processing? Can anyone find me!
I got an info regarding animal-feed-additives people go for best manufacturers like Tex Biosciences who are trusted players all over India in the industry!
Great! Even i am interested in such topics! But before that i want to say that you know how a poultry gets feeded? It is Eco-friendly and economically a growth? As i am specialist over this i want to know more about such usage on how actually it is processing? Can anyone find me!
I got an info regarding animal-feed-additives people go for best manufacturers like Tex Biosciences who are trusted players all over India in the industry!
Looks like the profit take that I did was right.
HEMP is the new-old crop who comes back big-time ! Take a look at VitaCann, subsidiary to QBL.AX
CORN – Low Risk Trade?
Grain markets are coming into the most volatile and trending part of the year as the first crop ratings on the American growing season appear. Fundamentally Soybeans and Corn have contrasting fortunes as ending stock projections diverge between to the two. Whilst adverse weather through the summer would undoubtedly provide bullish fuel to both, it is Corn that is has the most favorable set-up on both a fundamental and technical basis. Whilst the entire bean complex has broken its final support points in the past two weeks, corn has been trapped in one of its tightest ranges in decades.
Analysis of the the last 10- years December Corn contract shows that lowest range for the contract is a Dollar, and with nearly half the year gone the current range is only 25 cents. It would be highly unusual if that range was not to be expanded. With prices historically depressed Funds and Manged Money have one of there largest ever short positions. Against this, Unreported positions have there biggest long. Whilst it is unwise to to use these tools to project price action, what should be remembered is often the limits of participation change, so shorts can get bigger, as can longs. What is clear is a technical breakout higher would lead to fund short covering with there hand forced if price stayed above the 200 day moving average. Further upward momentum would come if Funds then got long.
Thus far Corn has been subject to planting delays and replants which will see acreage fall for it and rise for Beans, but modern technology means that it easy for these delays to be recovered. What cannot be escaped is the fact that these late plantings will mature in what is potentially a hotter part of the summer, with two of the largest producing States among the highest affected.
Corn Techncial Outlook
From a Technical prospective this period of sideways betrays the increasing bullish nature that is appearing. A glance at major market used Moving Averages (50,100,200) shows that they are at there most condensed value in many years.
Get Full Institutional technical Analysis and Charts HERE >>>>
Anyone trading grains these days--would love to find some grains traders to chat with!
Seems like weather is having an effect on the corn markets, as well as a lower dollar, so the funds seem to be taking advantage to buy some cheap corn. This time of year corn seems to get very volatile, as you're dealing with both old crop and new crop, so you have to speculate which will win out.
It also seems like South America is having much more influence on the grains in the US markets than it used to. Maybe because these markets are growing double-digits and their gigantic harvests are being immediately bought by China.
Anyone trading the corn/bean spread? Would love anyone's input!
You out there Aaron? Any comment?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/asian-pacific-business/foreign-investors-in-australian-farms-rash-or-prescient/article5454999/
CANBERRA/SYDNEY
Foreign investors in Australian farms: rash or prescient?
MAGGIE LU YUEYANG AND COLIN PACKHAM
Published Monday, Nov. 19, 2012 07:15PM EST
Last updated Monday, Nov. 19, 2012 07:18PM EST
For all the willing buyers seeking tracts of Australian farm land, local investors are not among them. They wonder what all the fuss is about.
Years of weak and volatile returns and some of the harshest weather on earth suggest a wave of foreign interest in Australia’s farms and agricultural assets is on a fool’s errand.
“Overseas investors are too dumb to realize that they are not going to make money out of Australia agriculture,” said David Leyonhjelm, an Australia-based agriculture consultant at Baron Strategic Services.
He may have a point.
Australian farms’ return on capital has seldom exceeded more than 2 per cent in a year on average during the past decade, excluding changes in land values, according to government research bureau ABARES. That is less than half the return on stocks and less than a third compared with bonds, figures from Russell Investments suggest.
Although farm returns are volatile anyway – owing to the vagaries of the weather – the unpredictability of Australian earnings is much greater than in the United States.
In the past 30 years, Australia’s net farm income has experienced annual drops of more than 40 per cent on five occasions compared to just once in the United States, data from ABARES and the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows.
Including capital appreciation, Australian farm returns have been outstripped by Africa and Brazil. Australian farm debt has risen some 8 per cent a year since 2001, almost double the pace of U.S. farm debt.
Even when it comes to the weather, Australia seems worse off.
It has the lowest and most variable rainfall patterns of any inhabited continent, due largely to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation climate pattern that periodically bakes much of the country in hot, dry weather and intersperses it with flooding rains.
“In recent history, Australia has seen more volatility in agricultural farm output than other major agricultural producers,” said Michael Creed, agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank. “In the past 20 years alone, we’ve had a drought that lasted a decade and when the drought broke, it broke in a massive way.”
Despite the weak and volatile returns, the explosion of the middle classes in Asia is attracting more offshore investors looking beyond immediate returns to an expected long-term surge in demand for high-quality food.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization says the world needs to boost food output by 70 per cent by 2050 to meet demand, a sobering statistic for highly populated countries such as China, where a major tenet of the Communist Party is guaranteeing food security for its 1.3 billion people.
Chinese investors have been involved in a number of high-profile farm deals, including the purchase of the country’s biggest cotton farm, the 1,000 sq. km. Cubbie Station.
Chinese entities are also in the running for a large dairy operation in Tasmania and a big irrigation project in Western Australia.
U.S firm Archer Daniels Midland last month made a $2.8-billion (U.S.) bid for Australia’s last major independent grain handling company, GrainCorp, spurring a 40-per-cent jump in its share price.
Australia lacks comprehensive data on foreign ownership but the government says the vast majority of farms are locally owned and that has not changed much over the past 30 years. But spurred by a number of high-profile foreign deals, the issue has become politically sensitive as the sector struggles to attract much-needed investment at home.
Despite local skepticism at the prospects for Australia’s farming sector, the increase in offshore interest comes at a time when returns have seldom been better and adds to other evidence suggesting the foreign investment may not be mistimed after all.
Helped by generous rains and strong global prices, Australian farmers may have enjoyed the best year in decades in 2011/12.
“For the first time in more than 30 years, all states and all industries are expected to record positive farm business profits and rates of return,” ABARES said in its 2011/12 annual crop and livestock farm performance report.
Average farm cash income jumped to A$117,300 ($122,000) in 2010/11 from just A$59,470 the previous year, it said. This year is forecast to remain a strong A$116,000 – almost 40 per cent above its real, long-term average.
GrainCorp, the target of Archer Daniels, last week posted a record profit of A$205-million, boosted by a bumper crop. It said the takeover bid failed to reflect the promise of the business.
Some analysts say a global rush for agricultural land is just beginning, driven by increasing concerns over long-term food and water security. With the availability of suitable farmland shrinking and productivity gains slowing when populations are growing and diets changing, supply/demand dynamics are likely to be favourable over the next 40 years, an ANZ report says.
Another study, by real estate company Savills, identifies Australia as having some of the lowest land costs for wheat production in the world and highlights the appreciation in farmland values since 2002.
Shandong Ruyi Group, which bought Cubbie Station, is taking the long view, company adviser Ian Smith said.
“They are not dictated by the short term and they also have a proud track record of maximizing the assets over the longer term,” he said.
Underscoring the gap between the short and the long view, Laguna Bay Pastoral Co., an agricultural investment fund advised by U.S. commodities trader Jim Rogers, was forced to seek investors offshore because of a lack of interest in Australia.
“We were presented to most local funds. Most Australian local pension funds don’t have agriculture assets allocation,” Laguna founder Tim McGavin told Reuters.
“We have been forced to market to overseas just because the general lack of understanding and interest in agriculture.”
Laguna secured its main seed funding from U.S.-based Global Endowment Management, and now aims to buy and privatize PrimeAg Australia Ltd., an investor in rural property and water assets.
Australia’s vast pension funds industry, sitting on $1.4-trillion and looking for long-term diversified assets, has largely shied away from the sector. Even The Future Fund, Australia’s $80-billion sovereign wealth fund, has no direct exposure to the country’s agricultural sector.
Still, Pauline Vamos, the chief executive of the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia, said interest in farm assets is picking up after some ill-conceived and poorly managed projects had put off local investors.
“You’ve had cotton farms built in the middle of the desert, you’ve had timber plantations built miles from any infrastructure – these schemes were never going to make any money,” she said.
OT ... This is not meant to be facetious. Any REAL farmers on this forum? If so, just PM me a “yes”. I have a rather simple (personal) question which is irrelevant in terms of the AG market.
ICE circuit breakers to cover energy, US softs
PROVIDED BY Reuters - 5:46 PM 03/20/2012
* ICE started rolling out IPL circuit breakers last week
* New IPLs to cover energy, U.S. softs
* Aim is to reduce market volatility
By John McCrank and Marcy Nicholson
NEW YORK, March 20 (Reuters) - IntercontinentalExchange Inc (ICE)
said on Tuesday it will introduce circuit breakers for
certain ICE Futures Europe contracts, including Brent crude, and
for U.S. softs futures like cocoa and sugar, to cut down on the
likelihood of extreme market volatility.
The Atlanta-based exchange operator first rolled out circuit
breakers, or interval price limits (IPLs), last week for U.S.
Dollar Index futures contracts and certain Russell Index futures
contracts, aimed at preventing price spikes that are often
associated with high-speed electronic trading.
Circuit breakers have been used in equities markets for
nearly a quarter of a century, but did not stop the May 6, 2010
flash crash in which the Dow briefly plunged nearly 700 points.
Regulators have said the trigger thresholds were too broad.
ICE said it kept the regulators' concerns in mind when
developing its IPL policy.
But some traders expressed concerns that the IPL amounts may
actually be too small and the hold periods too short.
"If you have such narrow trading, this market's going to
constantly be stop, go, stop, go," said Shawn Hackett, of
Hackett Financial Advisors in Florida.
IPLs set upper and lower limits for given markets within
specific timeframes. Prices that move beyond those set amounts
trip the circuit breaker, putting the market on hold for a
pre-determined amount of time, giving participants a chance to
decide if the move was warranted.
During the hold period, the affected futures contract can
still be traded, but only within the IPL range. When the
contract begins trading again, a new IPL range is set after the
hold, based on the price at the end of the hold.
ICE said that it can adjust the parameters of the IPLs at
any point if needed.
MARKET STABILITY
Massive price spikes, though rare, have raised questions
about the stability of high-speed electronic markets that are
dominated by computer-driven, algorithmic trade, and which have
largely replaced open pit trading.
Since ICE agricultural futures went electronic in 2007 the
relatively small cocoa market, for instance, has experienced
several violent and short-lived moves that appeared disconnected
with any fundamental news, traders say.
A year ago the ICE cocoa futures market plunged more than 11
percent in seconds before rebounding a minute later, and many
suspected computer-generated dealings. ICE canceled some trades
as traditional players complained of market distortion.
"It will break the fall for a few seconds but I don't know
if it really does anything to change the overall situation,"
Jack Scoville, a vice-president with The Price Futures Group in
Chicago, said of the IPLs.
"Some of those markets, once they get rolling, they keep
rolling."
BRENT, COCOA AMONG NEW
ICE plans to phase in the new IPLs in Europe on March 26 and
April 1, and in the United States on April 2.
ICE Futures Europe lists the leading global crude oil
benchmarks and sees half of the trade in the world's crude oil
and refined product futures in its markets.
It said IPLs for EUA Futures, EUA Futures, ERU Futures, EUAA
Futures, EUAA Futures, and Dutch TTF Futures, would be effective
beginning March 26.
IPLs for Brent Futures, Brent NX Futures, Gasoil Futures,
Low Sulphur Gasoil Futures, WTI Futures, Rbob Futures, and
Heating Oil Futures, would be effective April 1.
In the United States, ICE said the circuit breakers for
Sugar No. 11, Coffee "C", Cotton No. 2, Cocoa and frozen
concentrated orange juice futures contracts would come into
effect on April 9.
Corn pops on South American heat: #msg-70306156.
Faulty USDA forecasts roil corn market: #msg-69609753.
Plant protein, the final frontier
Plant protein, the final frontier: From canola to flax, hemp and pea
If there’s a plant with protein in it, Burcon NutraScience has probably had a good shot at extracting it. But is the market ready for flax protein isolate? Elaine Watson caught up with president and chief operating officer Johann Tergesen to find out.
http://www.nutraingredients-usa.com/Industry/Plant-protein-the-final-frontier-From-canola-to-flax-hemp-and-pea
The newest entry is rice protein made from stabilized rice bran. 60% of the nutients of a rice kernel is in the milled off bran. It is basically low grade animal feed now. Some firms have a heat treated rice bran that destroys many of the nutrients in the bran. NutraCea(NTRZ) has developed a method of giving stabilized rice bran products a shelf live of 12 months and now fit for human consumption onm a large scale.
The biggest story is NTRZ's partnership with DSM and DSM/NTRZ are now developing rice protein products made from stabilized rice bran. The only main competition is soy protein. The current rice protein is a poor product with limited uses. Soy is GMO and not too at all popular in health circles. With political and environmental pressure on animals and fish as food all plant proteins will increase in value, IMO.
http://www.foodnavigator-usa.com/Market/NutraCea-reports-significant-progress-on-rice-protein-project-with-DSM
Great post cork, NTRZ is positioned to be one of the best stocks in 2012.
1. NTRZ will totally emerge from BK when they pay creditors January 15th or sooner
2. Their "Proof of concept" Stabilized, sustainable rice bran oil plant will turn the 80% left overs from the oil process to edible human food with a 12 month or longer shelf life.
3. Other countries including China the USA and Vietnam are interested in the plant concept. The end of BK and completion of the Brazil plant should bring new plant deals.
4. DSM has tested and is working on a rice protein product that will compete easily with the GMO soy protein.
5. Beneo_Remy has just started selling Remy LiVe, a rice bran product made by NTRZ in 40 countries under a co-branding deal. The kick off was the Paris IFT show that ended Thursday.
6. Rice bran as a meat extender from Brazil is just coming online. Hillshire Farms has a chicken smokie just on sale.
7. A nutraceutical deal with patents filed in Europe and the USA and trademark names is said to happen in the last 1/2 of 2012, possibly with DSM as a partner. New EFSA and FDA regulations in that area may be slowing that down. DSM knows the rules and has clout.
I could go on, but everything is coming together in 2012.
NTRZ Nutrcea (.136) Rice/Food/Nutrition Play. Processing and distribution of stabilized rice bran, Rice Oil, and other proprietary, rice bran-based ingredients and formulations.
Food Manufacturers * Nutraceuticals * Petfood and Feed Manufacturers
Web page: http://www.nutracea.com/
Pink Sheets: http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/NTRZ/quote
IHUB: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=6636
Boom Times Continue for US Farming
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8c6a37f0-1b33-11e1-8b11-00144feabdc0.html
›November 30, 2011 10:03 am
By Javier Blas
What makes North Dakota, Nebraska and South Dakota different from the rest of the US?
The first difference is that they have the lowest unemployment rate: 3.5, 4.2 and 4.5 per cent, respectively, compared with a national average of 9 per cent in October.
The second big difference is farming. Agriculture has the largest share of gross domestic product in the three states. While the national average is less than 1.5 per cent, it is 10.9 per cent in North Dakota, 9.4 per cent in South Dakota and 6.8 per cent in Nebraska.
A large agricultural sector was a curse in the 1980s and 1990s, but today, it is a blessing.
The US Department of Agriculture said on Tuesday that the net value added of agriculture to the US economy – adjusted by inflation – will be the highest this year since at least 1974. And the boom is likely to continue. Official figures, also released on Tuesday, show that in 2011, US farmers will take home for the first time more than $100bn in a single year. As Tom Vilsack, the agriculture secretary puts it, “agriculture continues to be a bright spot” in the US economy. Indeed, farming, together with natural resources production, particularly oil, is one of the few bright spots.
Article continues at #msg-69445467.
A walk down memory lane:
Germany’s K+S to move forward on Saskatchewan project
VANCOUVER— Globe and Mail Update
Published Tuesday, Nov. 29, 2011 9:08AM EST
Germany’s K+S AG, Europe's largest potash producer, said Tuesday it will move forward with construction of the $3.2-billion Legacy project in Saskatchewan.
K+S, which obtained the project a year ago in the $434-million purchase of Canada’s Potash One, said production is expected to begin in 2015.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/germanys-ks-to-move-forward-on-saskatchewan-project/article2253275/
Sludge from Alberta pulp mills makes excellent fertilizer
Plump tomatoes growing in landfill got researchers thinking
By Dave Cooper, edmontonjournal.com November 12, 2011 7:24 AM
EDMONTON — When folks at the Alberta Newsprint Company first noticed tomatoes growing in their pulp effluent sludge, they had a chuckle.
“We figured since there was a small amount of sanitary waste treated on our landfill site, and since tomato seeds pass through the human digestive system, that a tomato-eating staff member was the source,” joked Dan Moore, environmental co-ordinator for the Whitecourt papermaking plant.
“But the bigger question was, ‘Why was the pulp sludge so plant-friendly?’ ”
So they called in researchers. And what followed was a decade-long project that has changed the way three Alberta pulp mills are allowed to handle their sludge.
The results of the work led to the end of expensive burning and landfilling of the sludge, and provided local farmers with an excellent fertilizer. In the future, it may offer oil and gas companies a better way to reclaim former well sites.
“This project begun in 1992 by Terry Macyk (of the former Alberta Research Council) really put the province at the forefront on this issue. The three pulp companies came together and helped fund the research. They didn’t have to do this and no one forced them to do it,” said Bonnie Drozdowski, reclamation team leader at Alberta Innovates Technology Futures.
The sludge is composed of residue from the mechanical pulping process used at three mills (the rest use a kraft process which requires more chemicals) and contains carbon matter and nutrients. Alberta Newsprint, for example, produces 800 tonnes a day of newsprint sold to newspapers all over North America — including to The Edmonton Journal — and 30 tonnes of sludge.
The two other mills — Millar Western in Whitecourt and Slave Lake Pulp — produce more sludge to make the larger quantities of pulp they sell to secondary manufacturers of products ranging from fine paper to baby diapers to cardboard.
The goal of the research was to ensure that the nutrient-rich sludge could be safely applied to agricultural land to improve the soil. The project started with laboratory work and quickly moved to field trials. The yield results were stunning for grasses, crops and trees.
Trees on the test plots grew about 20 per cent faster, and are projected to reach a harvestable size in 60 years versus the normal 70 to 80 years.
Trials in areas such as former oil and gas well sites are still underway. It is hoped the sludge will help detoxify land as well provide a base for better reclamation and regeneration on marginal lands. Early results are promising.
There is also the potential of selling sludge as compost to garden centres.
But today, the sole use is by agriculture.
And there is a long list of farmers who want the sludge.
“When we started this I would drive around and try and convince people to use the stuff. Now I get all the phone calls and repeat customers,” said Moore.
Jeff Shipton, environmental co-ordinator for the Millar Western mill, says farmers will actually stop his trucks to get contact information.
“We have a dedicated trucking company to haul this product, with boxes that don’t leak because the sludge resembles porridge,” he said. (The sludge is 80-per-cent water.)
Under Alberta Environment rules which were developed because of the research project, farmers are allowed to apply up to 80 tonnes of sludge per hectare, although the average is about 50 tonnes.
Shipton’s firm pays to have the material incorporated into the top 15 centimetres of soil, while the sludge from Moore’s operation is a different consistency and farmers are able to spread it themselves.
“We spread mostly in the Green Court and Mayerthorpe areas (south of Whitecourt),” said Shipton.
The firms usually don’t truck the sludge more than 45 kilometres from their mills.
The farmers get a “lovely slow-release fertilizer that enhances the soil properties and alters the physical structure of the soil, increasing its water holding capacity, porosity and aeration,” said Drozdowski.
Once applied, it provides a benefit for at least five years — which means farmers are freed from applying expensive fertilizers.
The pulp mills would love to charge farmers for the material. But they won’t.
“It is hard to convince a farmer to pay for it in this part of the country, but it might be different if we were located near areas with big cash crops like wheat, where the savings in (commercial) fertilizer use would be significant,” said Moore.
But the mills aren’t complaining, he adds.
“If we had kept doing things the same way, by landfilling, we would have had to build two more landfill sites by now at a very large cost. We produce enough sludge to fill up Rexall Place every few years,” Moore added.
“So it has been a real win-win for the farming community, for us and for the environment.”
The other two mills in the program were burning their sludge, an expensive process that meant it had to be dried and mixed with woody material, like sawdust.
“Our beehive burner is 20 kilometres out of town, so no longer dealing with all those costs has been a saving. But the sludge spreading program is still relatively expensive for us,” said Shipton.
In a world that is trying to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, Drozdowski said the sludge project proved to be a winner by both reducing CO2 from combustion and sequestering carbon in the soil. Her team even wrote up a protocol for carbon credits, the same way farmers who practise zero tilling earn credits that have cash value — firms that emit large amounts of CO2 have to purchase credits or pay into a research fund under Alberta’s carbon regulations.
“Under the protocol we were technically approved. But because we started doing this before 2001, the project is ineligible. We kinda got punished for being an early actor,” she said.
So after years of early research and then more years of monitoring, the pulp mill sludge project has entered a new stage.
“We now are getting the message out across Canada, because many mechanical pulp mills are still landfilling or burning their sludge,” said Drozdowski.
B.C.’s two mechanical mills are looking at what Alberta has done, as are mills in Ontario.
And the project has just launched a website which details the research.
“We want everyone to be aware of this project, that Alberta is an environmental leader with almost 20 years experience studying this sludge,” she said.
The team has taken the sludge project from the very beginning, from an observation about tomatoes, to an idea that might be worth examining, through the research stages to having enough science to establish provincial regulations, and now seeing farmers lining up to use it.
“At the end of the day we have a nice green product that people see has value,” said Drozdowski.
Hi earthfar
Good to hear from you. I don't check this board often anymore, will keep a closer tab on it.
Things are generally good.
Moisture might be excessive currently, although that can change.
Need some heat at this stage.
Basically countryside looks very lush.
Sorry kidl. Only following the pure phosphate plays. Potash had its prematurely early run. Even the analysts fail to understand phosphate prices always lead potash. That's quite simply because phosphate is applied at planting whereas potash is applied as crop yield and price potential develop.
Rock phosphate is now US$190-200/t.
Main stock I am watching is MAK.AX (also has a Toronto listing). In 2008, this stock popped from 19c up to $2.90 as rock phosphate rocketted to US$400/t. Management has been the issue since and obviously the spectacular collapse in rock prices following the GFC. However a deal with the Indian State owned bohemeth NMDC is likely to be inked in October. A MOU was recently signed. What very few know is that NMDC pulled out of a similar project in Tunisia following the political unrest.
The supply security of phosphate has changed permanently and non Middle East supply bases are being re-rated as a result.
Good luck.
Getting Used to Life without Food, Wall Street, BP, Bio-ethanol and Death of Millions
Commodities / Food Crisis
Jul 03, 2011 - 05:10 AM
By: F_William_Engdahl
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article29029.html
Are you by chance following NPK (Brazil play)?
If so, would love to get your take.
How's The Crops Fairing in Alberta John?
Long time no speak. Hope all is well. Australian crop is mixed atm. Grain markets have tanked of late. There's nothing to suggest that sort of confidence in global production prospects is justified. Markets effectiveely tank when disaster is avoided, whereas the grain coffers need above average crops just to keep up with rising demand.
We have yet to see 'the' big spike in grains IMO. But it will likely culminate in a very spectacular broader market meltdown of some sort.
Keeping an eye on nitrogen and phosphate. They've left their runs late and are on the move ... not too concerned about potash prices. It's always the last fertiliser to be purchased. Investors don't understand this it seems. Phosphate is always applied at planting with nitrogen. Potash always comes last.
Good luck.
Finish Them Off Now: Cap Food Prices
http://larouchepac.com/node/18381
Food ETFs
Would be interested in a discussion of COW, FUD, JJG etc. or related topics.
I was planning to drop this board...
when I saw your post today. I'm no expert in direct futures investments. It's pretty clear that the grains will be a very volatile and potentially very lucrative trade in the next 2-3 years for those that can divine the technicals of these wild markets. Technical trading skill is above my pay grade, but I like to watch the action from the sidelines.
Good luck.
P.S.: if you've found another active board on the agriculturals, could you let us know? Thanks.
JWB
Anybody still following this board? If yes, what do you think of going long on OATS. Thanks.
Medium term they are going to rocket. The weather is screwed up all over the world.
Any thoughts to where corn prices are going?
EDIT: I looked in the ibox and found the information there. Thanks!
Evogene update re GM corn: #msg-47900776.
Regina pinched by plunge of potash
Patrick White
Winnipeg — Globe and Mail Update Published on Tuesday, Mar. 02, 2010 8:15PM EST Last updated on Wednesday, Mar. 03, 2010 3:11AM EST
The coveted pink mineral that once formed Saskatchewan's fiscal bedrock has officially become a fiscal millstone.
Potash revenues in Saskatchewan landed so far short of expectations last year that Regina will refund more than $200-million in quarterly payments it collected from the industry, Finance Minister Rod Gantefoer revealed yesterday in the province's third-quarter financial report.
The reimbursement represents a drastic change of fortune in the province where potash revenues were expected to total $1.9-billion – or roughly one of every five dollars flowing into government coffers – in last year's budget forecast.
The admission illustrates both the recent crash of potash prices and the extent to which last year's provincial revenue forecasts were overestimated.
“We actually reported more money than we probably should have in our last fiscal year and as a result we have to show a negative in this fiscal year,” said Mr. Gantefoer.
Saskatchewan exports roughly 25 per cent of the world's potash – a potassium salt used in fertilizer. With prices trading at over $1,000 a tonne prior to the financial crash in late 2008, Saskatchewan was flush. Those prices have since dropped to around $350 on plummeting volumes, dropping the province in a hole that few saw coming.
“No one expected their potash revenues to be negative,” said Mary Webb, senior economist with the Bank of Nova Scotia. “Fiscal 2010 hasn't been easy for any of the provinces, and particularly not Saskatchewan.”
On the bright side, total revenues from oil and income tax came in nearly $1-billion higher than expected, filling much of the potash void. By shifting another $1-billion from Crown corporations and a rainy-day fund, the province anticipates it will post a $424.5-million surplus.
“They may call it a surplus, but it's an artificial balance they've maintained only by draining all resources out of Crown corporations and draining the rainy-day fund,” said Trent Wotherspoon, finance critic for the opposition NDP. “And this at a time when we have relative revenue strength.”
Indeed Saskatchewan's revenues have remained buoyant considering worldwide financial duress, rising to more than $9.5-billion from $7.8-billion in just two years.
Mr. Gantefoer will present next year's budget on March 24. With commodity prices fluctuating wildly, he faces a vexing task. On the one hand, he'll want to avoid the overoptimistic forecasts that cost Brad Wall's government significant political capital last year; on the other, potash prospects are actually looking positive for the first time in months.
“We have indications that potash will improve significantly in fiscal '11,” Scotiabank's Ms. Webb said. “Both price and volume should recover.”
Canpotex, the export marketing company for Canadian potash producers Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., Agrium Inc. and Mosaic Group Inc., recently made large sales in Indian and China.
“We did take a significant hit to the economy, but we now seem to be returning to more gradual growth in the industry,” Mr. Gantefoer said. “That puts us in a pretty good position. By these numbers, it's clear that Saskatchewan's economy is coming out of the recession a little earlier than most other provinces.”
India Potash deal in a Matter of Weeks:
Bloomberg
BHP fertilizer interest may hurt Potash Pricing:
Bloomberg
India seeks low potash prices:
Bloomberg
The troubling silence on potash pricing
EUGENE WHELAN
From Friday's Globe and Mail Published on Friday, Feb. 26, 2010 12:00AM EST Last updated on Friday, Feb. 26, 2010 3:31AM EST
The Hon. Eugene F. Whelan served as MP from 1962-1984 and senator from 1996-99. He is a former minister of agriculture for Canada (1972-79, 1980-84) and former president of the UN World Food Council (1983-85.)
Potassium is a non-perishable resource that has lasted thousands of years in the bowels of the Earth. It is an abundant element, but the large deposits are found in only a handful of countries - with about half the global supply found in Saskatchewan.
When potassium is mined and refined it becomes more commonly known as potash; around the world, more than 90 per cent of potash is used in the form of fertilizer.
Potash fertilizer is a crucial factor in food production. After centuries of farming, much of the land in many countries is depleted of nutrients. Just like humans, plants are a reflection of what they take in. Without proper soil nutrients, food crops are weaker; they do not retain water well; their taste and colour are poorer. They are more prone to disease. The harvest is smaller and crop failure is possible. Many types of crops, from fruits and vegetables to cereals and grains, benefit from the application of potash.
As the world population increases, global food production becomes an even more pressing concern. How to feed an ever-growing population with the same amount of land is a question asked over and over. Improved crop yields, attainable by using potash, is one answer.
In 2007 and 2008, the cost of potash rose dramatically on the world markets, climbing from a seven-year average price of $145 a tonne to more than $1,000 a tonne. The cost to produce this same tonne was roughly $70. Many farmers could not afford the purchase price, and chose to not apply potash to their lands, or used it at a lower-than-recommended rate of application. At the same time, potash producers reaped mega dollars from the sales that were made. Potash companies both here in Canada and in Russia, and their executives and shareholders, fared well. Meanwhile, small farmers in countries such as Brazil and India struggle to exist, with food shortages ever-present threats.
The cartel of potash producers agreed to a world price. When prices rose to more than $1,000 a tonne, if you wanted the potash you had to pay, no matter where you live in the world. What happened to the ethic that we are our brother's keeper? What happened to the idea that that we live in a competitive free market, ruled by the law of supply and demand? It seems that greed now rules in its place, at the expense of millions of the world's poor.
Sales and prices dropped dramatically last year, after the price increases, but shorter-term potash prices have recently climbed to as high as $430. It is incomprehensible how civilized companies can do what they have done in the potash fertilizer business. Corporate executives know this product is essential to grow food crops, yet they are treating it not as it if were a basic resource, but as if it were some sort of luxury item, like diamonds, that can be made scarce and sold to the highest bidder.
What is so amazing - and alarming - is that no government or government body can or will do anything about this organized activity. Even the World Trade Organization, whose goal it is to make sure that global trade is conducted fairly, does nothing.
It is also hard to fathom that investors continue to purchase stocks of potash producers. Do they not see that the inflated price for potash cannot do anything, ultimately, but raise the price of food and deprive the hungry? The self-interested cartel sets the market price - a price which has nothing to do with the cost of production of potash. Remember, it currently costs about $70 to load a tonne of potash onto a rail car at the mine.
There is not a lowered demand for potash, as the companies say. Instead, there is a demand for lowered prices. Without a price drop, there will be less potash fertilizer used, leading to food shortages and higher food prices. Lives and livelihoods will be lost. Malnutrition, starvation and death are real outcomes.
PotashCorp sues Mosaic for $1B
Conflict over potash produced at Esterhazy
By Cassandra Kyle, of The StarPhoenixFebruary 18, 2010
A billion-dollar battle is underway between the world's two largest potash producers in a conflict over mineral reserves at a Saskatchewan mine.
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. is suing Mosaic Potash Esterhazy LP --a wholly owned subsidiary of Mosaic Co. -- over the remaining amount of potash it has ownership rights to under an agreement between the companies dating to 1971.
According to an amended statement of claim approved by Saskatoon Court of Queen's Bench Justice Neil Gabrielson on Jan. 19, Mosaic intends to end the mining agreement on Aug. 30 -- a move PotashCorp says is at least two years too early and concerns more than $1 billion worth of the key fertilizer ingredient.
Mosaic, in its statement of defence, denies the allegations, saying not only that the agreement should end on Aug. 30, but that it has sent PotashCorp nearly eight million extra tonnes of potash ore worth several billion dollars -- in essence loaning the world's largest potash company the product.
Mosaic has also filed a counterclaim against PotashCorp, alleging the Saskatoon-based company failed to receive delivery of all the potash it ordered from Mosaic for the 2009 year, a breach of its obligation under the long-standing deal and leaving Mosaic with the burden and cost of storing the product.
None of the allegations in either case have been proven in court.
Unable to agree
For nearly 40 years, Mosaic has mined and processed PotashCorp reserves at its Esterhazy operation in east-central Saskatchewan under an agreement that sees Mosaic ship between 453,600 tonnes and 1.3 million tonnes of finished potash product to PotashCorp on an annual basis.
The agreement, which covers PotashCorp's more than 15,000 acres of raw potash ore reserves at the Esterhazy mine, was signed between International Minerals & Chemical Corp. (Canada) Ltd., or IMC, the predecessor to Mosaic, and AMAX Potash Ltd., which eventually sold its claims to PotashCorp in 1971.
In 1979, Mosaic and PotashCorp became the parties to the agreement, which was amended in 1990 and 1998.
According to PotashCorp's claim, the two companies started discussing the timeline for the end of the mining agreement in December 2004, but the parties were unable to agree on both the remaining amount of potash PotashCorp has the right to receive from Mosaic and the date of the termination of the contract.
PotashCorp says in the claim it became apparent in April 2009 that a mutually acceptable resolution could not be reached and, at the same time, it became clear to the company that Mosaic intended to stop delivery of product on Aug. 30.
PotashCorp launched its original claim against Mosaic in May 2009, while Mosaic filed its statement of defence and counterclaim against PotashCorp in June of the same year.
PotashCorp has asked the Court of Queen's Bench to issue an order declaring the amount of potash product it has a right to receive from Mosaic.
"This is a matter of significance to PCS Inc.," the statement of claim says. "Unless the requested relief is granted, PCS Inc. is in jeopardy of suffering effective forfeiture of its important and highly valuable rights in the PCS reserves (at Esterhazy)."
Mosaic denies it has breached the agreement in any way.
How much potash remains?
One of the main issues in the lawsuit is determining how much potash remaining at Esterhazy belongs to PotashCorp.
In its statement of defence, Mosaic says it calculated that as of April 30, 2009, 4.7 million ore tonnes remained to be mined from the PotashCorp reserves at Esterhazy, which should provide about 1.7 million tonnes of finished potash product after the eight million tonnes earlier loaned by Mosaic to PotashCorp are considered.
At a delivery rate of 1.24 million tonnes of product per year, Mosaic says PotashCorp's entitlement to finished potash will end by Aug. 30.
PotashCorp, however, takes issue with Mosaic's determination of its remaining potash ore at the mine. The fertilizer giant says in its claim Mosaic's finding of remaining PotashCorp ore was not based upon good mining practices required in the mining agreement.
Before the courts
Representatives from both companies said they could not make specific comments about the case as it is before the court. However, said Bill Johnson, spokesperson for PotashCorp, the case is "moving along quite well.
"Companies in commercial arrangements sometimes have disagreements and you'd like to be able to work them out privately, but sometimes you need to refer these matters to the courts for opinion," Johnson said.
Mosaic spokesperson Brad DeLorey said the company is abiding by the court process.
"We are co-operating completely with the courts until this matter is resolved," he said.
Potash transfers between Mosaic and PotashCorp, DeLorey added, ceased in April 2009.
Canpotex announces contract
Potash sold to India at $370 US per tonne
By Cassandra Kyle, The StarPhoenixFebruary 20, 2010
The sale of Saskatchewan potash to India at a price of $370 US per tonne may set the standard for upcoming provincial revenue projections.
Energy and Resources Minister Bill Boyd said Friday the government -- which is in the midst of budget preparations -- is looking at the new contract as an indication of what potash prices will average this year.
Boyd expects the province will base potash revenue projections for its 2010-11 fiscal year on a price in the range of $350 to $400 US per tonne.
"Somewhere in that neighbourhood would be a safe indication of where we think prices are going to be," Boyd said in an interview.
Canpotex -- the marketing agent for Saskatchewan potash -- announced Friday a new contract with a consortium of Indian buyers for the shipment of 600,000 metric tonnes of the plant nutrient through June at $370 US per tonne.
In July 2009, Canpotex sold India 850,000 metric tonnes of potash for $460 US per tonne.
Earlier this month, Canpotex announced a sale of 350,000 metric tonnes of potash to China. The company did not disclose the sale figure; however, Boyd believes it to be similar to the new India deal.
The province projected it would bring in $1.9 billion in potash revenue in the 2009-10 fiscal year on sales of potash at $550 US per tonne.
After a calamitous year for potash, the government conceded earlier this week its revenue from potash sales for 2009-10 will now ring in at less than $100 million.
Boyd said potash markets for the 2010 calendar year are off to a much better start than 2009. In addition to the contracts with China and India, Boyd said Canpotex is running at full capacity this quarter.
"Essentially they're exporting at the maximum capacity they can for the first quarter, which indicates to (me) that I've think we've seen the turnaround," he said.
The minister said the government bases potash revenue projections for its fiscal years on the best information it can get about the outlook for the industry -- usually from the potash companies themselves. Discussions with company CEOs, he added, are a regular part of the process.
"We ask the industry for their views on what the prices and volumes of potash are going to be, we look at various agencies that forecast this type of thing as well, and, of course, this provides additional support for the numbers we are looking at for the upcoming budget," he said.
Boyd looks to the deal with India as another signal 2010 will be a turnaround year for potash.
"This is further encouragement that we've seen the start of the recovery of the potash sales," he said.
Followers
|
58
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
3005
|
Created
|
12/20/05
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderators |
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |