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DRYS - Sweet. I'm still holding my DEC $10 PUTS that I bought for about $1.40. I was losing my ass about 24 hours ago on these, but am looking in real nice shape now. I'm glad I held.
TOL - And back to 17.50 we go. It didn't take long to bring this one down again. I can only imagine that TOL will have some bad news to go with its earnings later this week. I wish I would've bought more 17.50 PUTS when TOL crossed the $20/share mark on Friday.
Those TOL 17.5 PUTS look really interesting right now. I bought a few. I can't believe TOL is back up to $20/share. I find it hard to believe that TOL can still trade in the $20's with the awful real estate market now. We'll see what happens with their earnings call next week.
Nice. I could kick myself for only buying 10k shares back at .86, but won't complain with an over 50% profit in a couple of days. I still think ETrade has more run left as long as the overall market holds up.
DOW green!
ETFC, thanks Manny. I bought quite a few shares at .86 a couple of days ago. Hopefully this will be a catalyst to move E*Trade considerably higher. As an E*Trade user, I love the platform, and I think they're considerably ahead of the game with managing their HELOC problems. But, they're certainly not my usual type of investment with a negative earnings outlook for at least a few more quarters. If only they could find a way to dump the HELOC's, their bank/brokerage is growing gang-busters. Sigh.
AGM, I also picked up 3k shares at the close yesterday for $3. This is a fairly low float stock, so it won't take much buying interest to move it back in the right direction. All we need is some overall positive market sentiment like we're having yesterday/today to move this significantly.
AGM just touched 3.39, so a good day so far!
Hyperinflation - I tend to agree. We're going to dilute the heck out of the US Dollar to get us through this crisis. Though precious metals may be considerably weaker in the near term (while we're still talking deflation/depression), they are going to skyrocket by the time we dig out of this crisis.
I'm apt to buy physical metals since metals stocks can decouple from the physical. But, in terms of stocks, the low cost, profitable precious metal miners will see a big swoon in share prices in the year(s) ahead.
Len: That is the kicker, isn't it. But, I'm probably not alone in saying "good luck" to the government when they try to come take my coins :)
I actually saved 12.5% from the current rate for American Eagle coins off the Monex.com site (sort of a live site for gold coin and spot prices). But, you're right...it is a pain in the rear end and I won't receive my $200 cash back for 60 days. So, it may not be worth the effort for most, but I'm a cheap skate and am always looking for ways to save a gram (buck) or two. LOL.
Yielddude,
Yeah, it is a bit unnerving. I'm an avid ebay user though, and I've historically had great transactions with sellers. The only catch with the Microsoft Live $200 cash back is that they won't release it for 60 days (to make sure the ebay buyer doesn't return the purchase, etc.). So, I won't see my cash back for a while yet. When I do get it back, they'll just dump it into my Paypal account which is great.
Certainly not the easiest of ways to buy gold, but I'm confident it will work out fine. I was initially going to buy some gold directly from Monex.com, but I hear that that's a scammy company in itself. So I didn't feel like I was adding a whole lot of risk by going the ebay route. We'll see...
Physical Gold anyone? 25% off on any eBay buy it now purchase (up to $200 per order - 12 max orders).
I bought some American Eagle 1 oz uncirculated gold coins today for $700 (includes cash back) including shipping. That's $47 less than current spot for bullion and over $100 less than going prices for American Eagles.
You simply have to use the "Microsoft Cashback" option, use "Buy It Now" on eBay, and pay via paypal. It takes a little work, but saving $100 on gold coins is a steal right now. Seriously, this is not a scam. I thought you fellow gold bugs would appreciate some discounted gold...
Here's a link on how to do it:
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message645722/pg1
I bought 10,000 shares at 1.34, so am back in for now. The markets have definitely taken a turn for the better today (after the big 300+ point drop), and I'm surprised ETFC isn't green yet. Hopefully it will get there by EOD.
JIMMY FOR PRESIDENT!
You have absolutely been spot on lately. I piggy backed on most of your puts today and am quite happy right now! Thanks, man!
Bought some SPY calls at the close for $2.81. In the past, I recall seeing positive, low volume days during holidays. Then again, we could go down the crapper tomorrow just as easily, but I won't be holding these long. Hoping for a quick flip tomorrow AM.
SPY Puts - Nice! Those are about to touch $3 now! I have some SPY $93 Puts that I bought a couple of hours ago at $2.85 and they are also looking nice, now at $3.75
SPY is really a great options play with the wild markets we've seen lately. You just gotta get lucky and choose the direction for the day. PUTS seem to be the better choices these days, that's for sure.
Grabbed some SPY Nov $92 PUTS earlier today. They're looking great now! Good call on the PUTS across the board!
QQQQ - I certainly hope these will look good tomorrow. I own the very same. Unfortunately, I bought them early afternoon at 1.77. Hopefully we'll see some significant upward movement on these tomorrow!
Those QQQQ puts were the right call. We're dropping like a rock.
I was thinking of qqqq calls. You think we're going to have one of those massive last 30 minute sell-offs today? It's quite possible, so maybe I'll just wait on my buy.
NICE!!! Nothing like a quick one day double! I sold my $92 PUTS, but still holding my $93 PUTS and I'm up 275% right now. I can't seem to make myself cash out on these yet though. Ugh, I guess I better lock in profits.
Thanks for the SPY tip a couple of days ago. I also hedged my calls, and these puts are the only thing keeping me afloat right now. I grabbed Nov $93 PUTS at 1.43, then later added some Nov $92 PUTS at 1.80. I'm up 175% and 97% on these.
Great hedge!
I also bought some Nov SPY $93 puts this AM for $1.43. I bought some PBW calls as well (Clean Energy) with the assumption that Obama wins the election (since he is focused on clean energy). Overall, I think I've got a nice basket for whatever happens tomorrow. We'll see...
The big question is whether we should be stocking up on CALLS or PUTS for tomorrow. I would expect the market to react wildly one way or another, but I have no clue which way.
BDI - I'm seriously considering investing in the closest thing I can find to an ETF - SEA (Delta Global Shipping index)
These streaks eventually have to end. I won't fool myself into thinking I can call the bottom, but we've seen an uptick on many of the shipper stocks lately. Maybe I'm optimistic, but I feel like there has to be some kind of stabilization in the shippers if the world economy has any hopes of recovering.
ABK going nuts! I'm loving my NOV 2.5 calls!
I bought some PNSN in the 7.20's early this afternoon. Based on ABK's move right now, I put my money in the wrong place. LOL. ABK just painted 2.85!
Time for TOL Puts again? TOL just filed yesterday with the SEC to sell an undisclosed amount of mixed securities from time to time. (including common and preferred stock, debt securities, warrants and guarantees).
With earnings coming up, massive insider selling, and potential dilution with issuance of securities, this seems like a good candidate for a BIG DROP.
I'm looking at $17.50 NOV puts, and $15.00 DEC puts...
Yep, I'd bet short term that ABK will drop back into the 2.30's, maybe even by EOD. There's no real news out there other than a proposal by ABK and a quick interview on CNBC.
You're probably safe with your PUT.
Good luck!
ABK ~ I don't know. I've been buying MBI calls lately (until today) and am happy today. Eventually there is going to be some kind of government intervention here. The latest rumor on CNBC a few minutes ago suggested that the Treasury would find a way to bring ABK and MBI back to AAA ratings BEFORE implementing any kind of TARP buy-back program.
ABK could easily touch $10 again in the near future. That said, it should pop and drop quite a bit in the next few weeks until the deal is signed.
Nice move! ABK is back to 2.18, so you couldn't have timed it more perfectly. I'm afraid I'm out of cash, so couldn't join you in adding this AM.
I sure hope it holds above $2 today. That in itself would signal strength given today's wild ride.
I bought some at 2.28. We really need some good news though to get this thing moving. Otherwise we may sink into the 1's again simply due to uncertainty of the future of bond insurers across the board.
But isn't the one-time loss due to FNM/FRE exposure included in the .60? If so, you wouldn't want to include that since it is a one time loss.
POE.v - Yep, I ended up buying some shares of POE this AM at 3.90. I've been following it for months, but was waiting for some sort of signal that oil was stabilizing a bit before I bought.
ABK and MBI - Nice risk/reward scenario
So, the bond insurers have a meeting with the FED tomorrow to discuss the bailout plan and the potential for some relief in the bond market. I'm not sure how many follow ABK (Ambac) and MBI (MBIA), but they've been devastated over the last year due to the ratings agencies reducing their ratings from AAA.
The problem is, municipalities are struggling due to accelerating bond borrowing costs (interest payments have tripled or even quadrupled in some areas). The lack of AAA ratings by ABK and MBI (among others) has frozen the credit for municipalities. So, local government have had to suspend growth plans (roads, infrastucture, schools, etc), and some are even struggling with bankruptcy. This is causing the economy to suffer due to lack of job creation, etc.
The FED recognize that they need to energize the bond market to support the municipalities, and the best way to do is to back the bond insurers and work to return the AAA ratings to these monolines.
Starting tomorrow, the FED will be reviewing a plan to support bond insurers. If they come up with a plan to re-insure or support AAA ratings for these monolines this week, we could see drastic increases in share price for Ambac and MBIA.
Certainly a gamble at this point, but I like the risk/reward. The ABK calls don't look that cheap, so I bought MBI Nov $14 calls at .30 and have some bids scattered for a couple of other calls. Just a suggestion...
Moody's - I think if they were going to downgrade, they would have done it by now. With all the pressure from the FED coupled with the fact that the ratings agencies are coming under increased scrutiny, Moody's best interest is to wait a bit before making a decision on ABK. Another rash downgrade before they know the extent of the bailout package and its affect on bond insurers would again send the markets into panic. It would be an irresponsible act, and would end up decreasing the relevance of Moody's (to the point that their business is in jeopardy). No, Moody's only choice is to hold off on a ratings change until there is a clear picture of the effect of the bailout and the role of bond insurers in the "recovery plan". We should find out more about this on Tuesday/Wednesday as the plan is pitched to the Fed.
MDF - Wow, that's a blast from the past from way back on the old RagingBull board. In fact, thanks to you and a few of the other original value microcap posters, MDF was my first "double" and really got me interested in finding hidden value microcaps. If I remember correctly, I purchased shares at the time for just under a buck, so I'm amazed to see it back close to that range. I might have to jump in with some shares just for nostalgia's sake.
In BAC Feb 37.50 Calls for .45
Yeah, I noticed it with FRE/FNM as well. The sp was moving back and forth like a jumping bean. I also noticed it with ABK though and was suprised with its relative strength this week (verses most other stocks). When it jumped from 1.85 to 2.05 in minutes, I took a chance and grabbed some shares (adding to my position). It promptly closed the day at 2.66 yesterday. Let's hope E*Trade is due for a 33% gain (or more) as well!
BAC - Shooting for the moon here, but I bought BAC Jan $40 Calls for a whopping .44 yesterday. Now, odds are we won't see $40 by January, but BAC is looking like it will open above $25 today. Hopefully this will generate a little interest in the calls as a lotto play.
TOL - Nice! I sold mine a while back, and could kick myself for doing so. I still have TOL Nov 22.50 puts I bought at 1.30 and are now trading at $2.80 for a 113% gain. I'm not letting these go since I'm using TOL as a hedge against some of my financial calls (which aren't looking so good right now).