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Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
And you'll pay more to renounce your citizenship. ;)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2748792/Americans-wishing-renounce-citizenship-pay-FOUR-times-increasing-number-wanting-service-avoid-paying-taxes-rises.html
...your friendly neighborhood lurker, itrytowin.
Hi Duma,
Thank you for looking at the original NERS chart and working your magic to create your own version.
I was especially looking forward to following this chart, but it appears to have transformed into the "kind of works" link we've discussed before wherein the Stockcharts image/link works for the first 24-hours, and then goes funky afterwards.
Would you consider trying posting this chart one more time using the methods you follow in posting the charts in the iBox? Those never go bad.
Once again....much appreciated!
itry
I will never understand the machinations of Wall Street logic Duma. They fear tapering because the cash spigot will close, but tapering means the economy's getting better. Rally on!
And big kudos to both Jaws and you for having your phase trading systems on the correct side of the rise. ;)
itry
Hi Duma,
Your phase trading plan certainly has my attention, and I've been watching your trades closely. I was wondering....
You had mentioned wanting to trade the IWM a bit more aggressively. I noticed that you placed a cash line and soon after that a green long line on the IWM chart. This was (to me) well before the MACD lines started to close and the MACD histogram crossed the line upwards. Was this a bit of a distribution phase calculated guess to get long quickly?
Where I'm heading with this....
Would it be fair to say you are going to trade IWM a bit more aggressively, and keep the SPY phase trading a bit more mellow?
Thank you for any thoughts you wish to share! (no hurry on replying of course)
Very appreciated,
itry
Volcker Rule?
Let me preface this by saying that I 'm simply throwing this out there as something that crossed my path on NPR this morning. I may have heard of it in passing before this, but I never knew of this one critical point that caught my attention.
One of the news segments talked about the 950 page Volcker Rule getting its final edits. It was created as part of the Dodd-Frank Law to clean up Wall Street and Bank's acts. Given its complexity, it is the last part to be written and potentially implemented.
Here's a recent link for reference:
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/12/03/volcker-rule-set-for-vote-next-week/?_r=0
The thing that caught my attention? It appears the rule would halt banks from trading for their own accounts (but not for that of their clients). It would also stop them from investing in hedge funds.
"The rule, which would ban banks from trading for their own gain and limit their ability to invest in hedge funds, is not yet a done deal."
I'm one of the people who believes that much of the money freed up through QE is ending up in the stock market, driving it to these rabid levels. Will this new rule significantly close the spigot a bit? Will banks simply be left holding what they own at the time the law goes into effect, and then sell off these assets over time? Or will they find a loophole to continue trading?
Two more pertinent articles:
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/11/17/pressure-builds-to-finish-volcker-rule-on-wall-st-oversight/
"The Volcker Rule prevents banks that have deposit insurance and other government support from proprietary trading, but it does not ban similar types of trading that are thought to be part of a bank’s basic business. For example, banks are still allowed to buy stocks and bonds for their clients — a process known as market-making — and place trades that are meant to hedge their risks."
http://www.gata.org/node/13227
"In anticipation of the rule, all the proprietary trading desks where banks took their own positions on stocks, bonds, or derivatives have been disbanded and the traders redeployed in-house or hired by hedge funds where such activity is still permitted."
Will this be a way for the Fed to dial back the monster they created? Time will tell.
itry
This got me laughing hard. ;)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-26/how-fed-keeping-warm-winter
This got me laughing hard. ;)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-26/how-fed-keeping-warm-winter
Post-posting note: Ah crud...I should have posted this on the other board. My apologies. :(
Thank you Murray!
When I began my investigation of what QE does, I was struck by the effect it was having on the stock market....but the direct connection between the Fed and stocks espoused in this article you shared is pretty amazing. The Fed selling off assets coincided with the great 2008 market drop, and just as suddenly the market takes off again when the Fed starts buying at the beginning of 2009. I always wondered why the market suddenly started climbing substantially in March 2009, and now I know. I'll certainly be saving this link for reference.
Duma, you've nailed it in your summary. I too kept thinking we were on the verge of rampant inflation with all the money being printed, but nope. They just figured out a way to move debt around and free up cash for the banks to use for other purposes...drive the stock and housing markets back up. The economy still sucks, but they see it as better than the alternative.
We are then left with the one question both of us saw in our email discussion...."What happens when the Fed run out of acceptable assets to purchase from the banks?"
itry
Gold/Quantitative Easing Article
Recently I had a minor epiphany where I realized I didn't understand the full story behind Quantitative Easing-QE and the resulting humongous purchase of assets by our government in our taxpayer name. (If I'm the patsy in this game, then I want to better understand the situation...debacle...whatever this is.)
In the course of searching the Web, I ran across this article on gold, QE & a "balance sheet recession" which enlightened me a bit.
How much of this is true is of course debatable. I initially shared this article offline with Duma and he is impressed by the "different take on things" aspect of the hypothesis. Perhaps some of you might find it enlightening as well.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100756275
itry
Hi Duma,
Please forgive me, but doing my best to follow along and learn.
Based upon information you shared in posts 139 & 141, shouldn't you have gone long around noon on Nov. 4th? The stoc80 climbed over 20, F85 showed a long and the price broke through the top line on the channel chart. What stopped you? Was it the count being incorrect to go long?
Thank you for your patience!
itry
The image capture works great.
Reviewing what you said....yes, the MACD looks great..smooth. And it appears each of the reverses could have been tempered by watching the stoc80 not being over 20.
Certainly a plan to watch. I'm looking forward to it. :)
Thank you for your reply Duma.
The VXX chart I am seeing is indeed from mid-April until now, but it is a daily chart and not a 60-minute chart.
I certainly trust your assessment of the results you're seeing though. Just jump between the stock index and vix, removing the uncertainty of distribution. Wow...I really hope it proves it's mettle!
This just added a whole new dimension to the system I never would have pondered.
"Then replace it with something else ready to go up, and in my case right now that is VXX. If distribution is so difficult to trade, why do it?"
Duma....that's a brilliant thought. Bravo sir. ;)
Has your analysis of VXX past history shown it to be sedate in accumulation and mark-up?
I'm concerned this may be a Jekyll and Hyde scenario wherein VXX plays the phases opposite what the stock indices do. e.g. VXX is crazy in accumulation, and more sedate in distribution.
Once again...great idea!
itry
And the market answered my question......boom, bounce off support. ;)
Hi Duma,
Just trying to learn to think like the master! I'm still a big fan of SR60.
Would this presently be an potential sell signal on SR60 system at 12:06? SR60 has crossed under 80, RSI is under 60, MACD Hist is red, and the 3-minute chart is teetering.
Thus, take the signal if the 3-minute breaks through the low at 110.59?
Thanks as always for your guidance!
itry
Thank you for pointing that out Duma.
I know you mentioned focusing on longer term trading, and that oil doesn't fit that schema as well as the main market indices. Please continue sharing your thoughts with us as you progress!
I know I already private messaged you with this, but also wanted to share with Jaws.....
As you both know, I was excited with what I was seeing in oil's trading chart. I thought it might be a little less connected to the overall market, but as the past two weeks or so have shown it can be just as big a whipsawing beast as the rest of the market.
I understand your F85 system, and am looking at ways to tweek it and perhaps try it with the less volatile indexes of the market. If I find anything of interest I will certainly share it.
On a closing note, perhaps we should just make a new rule to stay out of the market when Congress is playing with Weapons of Mass Economic Destruction. Great video I found:
Hi Duma,
Please treat this as low priority.
As you know, I'm focusing my trading towards oil (although of course the methodology can apply to anything) and trying to better understand the trades Jaws and you mark in your charts. This morning I noticed you marked a short for 1pm yesterday on your F85 chart. This is a link from the UCO chart you posted on Sept. 12th:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=UCO&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&i=p68033348399&a=315083724&r=1379017438262
The market obviously opened with a gap lower open and met the main criteria to go short. However, I watched the 1-minute chart and like clockwork oil started climbing at 10:06. (Yes, it seems oil can also be influenced by the :06 magic you discovered!) Time to hold off on the short.
May I ask what specifically led you to mark/take the short at 1pm?
Thanks very much!
Take care,
itry
A great reply Jaws, thanks!
I've re-read your reply several times to understand all the tips you shared....and of course I saved a copy.
As Duma has mentioned, I can't see how you are able to keep track of so many systems even with a "friendly hours" job. Kudos to you for what you achieve.
For myself, I usually arrive at work well before the market opens so I can easily track and react to the crucial 10am time period. 12 noon would be 9am for me, which can be problematic. But the 3pm-4pm close is lunch hour for me. So once again things look good. This is why I was so taken with Duma's statement about 10am,Noon,3pm trading probably working well. Most of the time though I can keep an eye on the hourly marks.
My goal is to target one trading vehicle with F85 (and perhaps SR60), and do my best to understand its ebb and flow. Your discovery of OIL mixed with Duma's shared F85 system will be my primary focus.
I can't tell you how great it is to have both Duma and yourself watching and sharing your thoughts on oil. I know that Duma has been pretty pleased with trading it with SR60, and I'm beginning to think that may be the way to go with oil's trading personality. The fine tuning of both systems will of course take time.
Very much appreciated!
itry
Thank you for the great detailed reply Jaws!
It sounds like even with a "friendly" work schedule, you really have your hands full trading all of your systems. Hopefully your new plan mellows things out a bit.
Just so we're on the same page....I use FreeStockCharts and have matched hourly chart settings as best I can vs. Duma's oil chart. (Consequently, things may be a "bit" different vs. StockCharts view?) I've been staring at the chart vs. what you are saying, and I think I get it.
If I understand correctly, (you suggest) at the end of the signal-bar one should hold off on immediately taking the signal and instead wait (at the very least) to see what transpires in the magic period from bar-after-the-signal-bar :00 to :06. If the price does not top the highest point of the signal-bar, then hold off taking the signal.
Reviewing a 2-minute chart, it looks like both of the signals would have failed. i.e. Did you mis-state when you said the single-crossover signal would have been valid vs. the dual-crossover signal being invalidated? (Please review the rest of this posting, and let me know if you agree or disagree.)
Aggressive cross using using single moving-average crossover in the 2pm-3pm bar on 9/26: The price in the :00 to :06 part of the 3pm-4pm bar never exceeded the 2pm-3pm bar high. Signal invalidated.
Conservative cross using both moving-average crossovers in the 10am-11am bar on 9/27: The price in the :00 to :06 part of the 11am-12pm bar never exceeded the 10am-11am bar high. Signal invalidated.
Consequently, as you stated we would still be short from the 9/19 signal.
(One could also choose to take the signal if the price in the bar-after-the-signal-bar exceeds the signal-bar's high at any time during bar-after-the-signal-bar. But let's set that aside for the moment.)
The whole goal of this exercise is of course to find ways to mitigate the number of false signals.
Much appreciated!
itry
Hi Jaws,
As I've mentioned, my focus lately has been on trading oil (even though it's been a bit of a whipsaw beast lately). I'm especially trying to better understand and meld the F85-hourly system into one I can trade while working full time.
You made a very compelling statement below that has drawn my curiosity. I realize you probably posted these some time ago, but would you share these rules once again for me?
"The F85 if you use the reversal rules has stayed short since 19Sep."
Would this be Duma's rule from SR60 that requires two sequential bars of RSI confirming the direction? (I must say that I really like that one Duma.)
Thanks very much!
itry
Thank you Duma!
The clear concise details you provided helped me greatly. I especially appreciate the 20sma & 20ema signal clarification for going long or short.
Even though it does have its own personality, I am hoping oil trades a bit more sedately overall vs. the general market indices. (Yeah....today DID prove to be a vexing turnaround though.)
I know that I've admitted SR60's many quick turns have scared me a bit, but it sure did make for some great signals this past month. I'll certainly watch them when making F85 choices.
Chart image note: The image you posted for UCO in your reply originally included phases, MACD(85,90,24) & BB when I read your posting earlier today (I copied and saved the image for reference). However, now it's just a more mundane chart without these indicators. Did you change the link, or is this another case of Investors Hub messing up the link? Does the chart appear correct when you view your reply?
Take care,
itry
Hi Duma,
I noticed this morning you marked a green line at 2pm yesterday on your UCO F85 chart (making for a great call). Officially, the F85 signal wouldn't have gone long until the price crossed the ema20 this morning.
May I ask what led you to take the signal at 2pm yesterday? Was it a combination of the well-established SR60 signal along with the MACD (85,90,24) being well into a long signal as well? Or were there other things your considered?
Thank you for any insights you wish to share!
itry
Hi Duma,
I tend to keep copious notes of both Jaws and your own comments on 60-minute trading, but I've also kept an eye on your longer-term trading experiments.
In some of your postings you had mentioned searching for a longer-term system that trades perhaps once or twice per month, making it more apropos to something like an IRA account. May I ask how that search is going and if you have found something better since that time?
Also, I have been looking at Foot's four daily charts found at the beginning of his Stockcharts public charts (Nas, Russell, S&P, Dow) and I like the daily chart with phases marked. I think you were attempting to match that chart's idea and improve on it to make your own longer-term trading signal. Did that come to fruition?
Thank you for any thoughts you wish to share!
Regards,
Itry
Thank you again Duma and Jaws for following F85-Oil so closely and calling your trading thoughts.
I know F85 is wondrously simple, but it's nice to be watching my FreeStockCharts F85-OIL chart thinking "10am is looking like a long," and having you verify it. :)
itry
Hi Everyone.
Two years I ran across Duma and was immediately attracted to his method in in trading the market. The 60 minute signals he espouses is right up my alley. I emailed Duma privately with some questions, and was very happy to recieve a quick reply. A consumate generous gentleman who I'm extremely happy to have met. He's regularly invited me to join in on the board, but I never felt I had anything worthwhile to add. However, recently I pointed something out privately which appears to have picqued his interest, and he convinced me to present my thoughts to the board.
In the past when I was playing with various trading systems, I would try different trading vehicles to see what worked best. Recently, Jaws57 posted the F85 system applied to OIL, and one look had me saying "Holy mackeral, he's found it." (Thank you Jaws!) While I very much like SR60, I never could really commit myself to taking the signals which came a bit too fast for my time-availability....(I work and can only check the markets at the open, mid-day and market-closing.) Yes, SR60 is simple....but I needed simpler...and slower. ;)
When Duma rolled out F85, I was immediately taken by its simple elegance, fewer signals and kick-ass returns. Unfortunately, like many systems its Achilles Heel comes when the market is moving too fast, and as we all know the past couple of weeks have been horrendous. Especially with Friday's spike-low crash followed by the climb back to a profit. However, you might have noticed that OIL was lackadaisically unaffected. i.e. It just seemed to trade to its own rhythm while the rest of the market went hyper-nuts.
My email to Duma basically went as follows:
"As I am wont to do, I plugged numbers into my results spreadsheet to see what happens. In the case of the oil chart Jaws posted, I used his signal lines and entered values for 10am, noon and 3pm. For the period of 7/22/13 to yesterday's close, it gave 1x ~16.6% per month. I think this is certainly worthy of a bit more scrutiny.
I know that oil also has the potential to be a whipsaw monster like the rest of the market, but thinking out loud.....
The regular market seems to me to be a giant playground for the Wall Street monkeys. If they can whipsaw things to their advantage, then they will do so with gusto as we have seen in the past two months. What if there were other markets (with nice high-volume trade-able ETFs) that mostly follow a more "flowing" attenuated path? We are looking for something that has good swings in short periods, but isn't as crazy as the machinations of the Wall Street standards. e.g. Dow, Nasdaq, Midcaps, Smallcaps, Emerging Markets, S&P, etc. All these standard markets are tied together in the same whipsaw maelstrom.
Gold seems to be too event driven, and silver seems too slow to be worthy of money making. Jaws' discovered that oil may be a prime candidate for this venture.....mayhap it is the best one for trading with the F85 methodology?
I'm a pragmatic guy and won't jump into this without more investigation, but just wanted to share the results spreadsheet."
In closing, my personal thanks again to Duma for putting together such a great board. All of you bring valuable information to the community, and I for one am very grateful. A special thanks to Jaws for bringing your own brand of hourly trading, and especially for applying F85 to oil.
My personal request to you Jaws is to join Duma in watching oil with F85. I have taken sundry SR60 and F85 signals in the past, but I think F85 with oil is where I will take all of them. i.e. It's time to dive in all the way. ;)
Best regards,
itry
TREND1..Signal question....
Thank you for clarifying my previous question. May I run another set of questions past you?
Earlier today I noticed the S&P start dropping to 938. I brought up the SPX trading system chart and the CCI(20) indicator showed -109 and the line's end-point was indeed below -100, but just a few minutes later it showed well less than -100....about -60. And later at the end of the day I checked and found that the graph showed no touching of -100.
Was it due to the indication happening within that 30 minute period? With the final exit point of that 30-minute time period being above -100 and thus never shows up on the final graph?
Is there something you watch for that triggers a valid signal? Should one wait until that 30 minute time segment has passed and shows -100 was breeched on the graph? (I would think that would help avoid spikes in either direction that could trigger false short or long signals.)
Thanks for your patience!
itry
Hi TREND1...
I've been following your SPX trading system with great interest. Many thanks for sharing it.
I just dropped by and the CCI line is over +100. Shouldn't it have issued a buy? Or are there rules I missed somewhere?
Much appreciated.
itry
Still here.
Find it hard to believe how badly the mining company stocks got whomped, but like gilead I'll add to my position when fundamentals start improving, company starts getting more sales, etc.
itry
Dumb question if I may......
Researcher (or anyone), where did you find that first part?
"AYSI (0.52) posts EPS of $0.041 for Q4 and $0.148 for Sept FY08. Q4 results assume a tax rate of 31.5% as in the first 9 months. Revenue of $3.57M in Q4 and $13.5M for the year "
I can easily find the 8K on edgar.gov, but it makes no mention of that sentence.
Many thanks,
itry
Agreed Dave!
A while back I asked Gene about why they haven't had more marketing of the product to potential customers. Sometimes I get an answer to my question....sometimes not. So I was pleasantly surprised when this reply came....
"What has held back our marketing is the lack of capacity. The second mill will make a difference in the year to come."
Gene can't do it all by himself, and with the addition of the second mill they will suddenly have the production capacity to start knocking on more doors...and more advertising. I agree with you that additional "knowledgeable and networked" sales people would do wonders.
As a sidenote....on the way in to work today I was listening to NPR and they had a short story on Angola becoming one of the fastest growing economies in Africa due to oil and mining....copper, etc. Bingo, yet another market.
The world will always need raw materials, and the equipment/supplies to get it out. This is why I continue to add to my postition on weakness. Sooner or later things will click for AYSI, even in a bear market.
itry
Dave, "OT" is this........
Oyu Tolgoi Project
http://www.ivanhoe-mines.com/s/OyuTolgoi.asp
http://www.ivanhoe-mines.com/i/misc/OTFact.pdf
"The first of a series of major mineral deposits at Oyu Tolgoi was discovered by Ivanhoe Mines Mongolia Inc. (IMMI) in 2001 after the company launched an intensive exploration program in Mongolia that now has extended over seven years and required spending by Ivanhoe of nearly 700 billion tugrugs (approximately US$600 million)."
....and I for one never knew the national currency of Mongolia is the "Tugrug." The things you learn investing in mining equipment stocks. ;)
itry
Potential new market: Saudi Arabia
My first reaction is "Don't they have enough of the world's money already?" And then of course I think...."How to get a piece of the action?"
Looks like Gene could have some more travelling to do. lol
http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/11/news/international/saudi_gold_mining.fortune/index.htm?cnn=yes
itry
No problem PCola..........
I fully understand how you feel. I'd probably be a bit miffed as well about the situation if others were making money on something I had developed, but couldn't play.
Either way...if you return or not, thank you for sharing....and good luck on your endeavors.
itry
Thank you PCola
I have a fascination with automated systems and always figure that anyone with a working system will keep it quiet. I was rather surprised and pleased to run across this board (I found you on the bounce board. I love bounce plays.) and your willingness to post your results for all to see is very much appreciated. And yes, I have been playing along with real $$ and made some dough.
Once again..thank you. Here's to your (our! lol) continued success.
itry
Nice work indeed Gents!
I had headed home from work yesterday with my tail between my legs, but this certainly has cheered me up. Thank you.
But I must say that I agree with Lillian Cap...they really should have had a concall to explain it all..if indeed your interpretation is correct (and it sure seems it is).
itry
BUCY posted knockout earnings
Keller_995 posted that BUCY reported an incredible earnings gain this quarter. When I looked at their Yahoo page, I noticed this article about money to be made investing in the "picks and shovels" companies"
http://seekingalpha.com/article/85685-coal-stocks-make-money-in-picks-and-shovels?source=yahoo
I sure wish some big investors would start thinking of AYSI as part of the "picks and shovels" crowd. lol
"The gains are steady, attracting risk-averse value investors. A resource boom will create winners out of companies that sell picks and shovels."
itry
Adding support to littlefishs capable analysis of FMGs outlook.....
Check out the press release on FMG's website from this past Monday July 21 "Fortescue signals bold expansion."
http://www.fmgl.com.au/IRM/content/about_media.htm
Many of the items presented on that page are quite exciting to me since it looks like FMG's demand alone could keep Alloy busy for some time to come....and if it dodges any recession pull-back worries, then so much the better for us:
"growing production around Fortescue's project in the Chichester Ranges could support an operation in excess of 150 million tonnes a year. "We can achieve a mining house in the iron ore business at least the scale of BHP's medium-term objectives just in the Chichester region alone," Mr Forrest said yesterday."
"Talking to journalists yesterday, Mr Forrest said he was confident about the demand for iron ore from China for the next
10 to 15 years. "The growth of the steel sector in Asia is not noticing the credit meltdowns" in the US and Europe, Mr Forrest said."
"One steel producer, for example, had said it would take the entire supply if Fortescue expanded to 150 million tonnes a year in the Chichester Ranges, he said."
itry
ARCA is on the bid at 2.46?
Albeit a paltry amount, but I can never recall seeing them on the bid before this....and suddenly here they are. (Have they shown up out of the blue before this, and I was just too busy here at work to notice them?)
itry
Littlefish, I emailed Ameritrade............
And after seeing your response from Scottrade which made sense, I got this response..which actually kind of surprised me:
"Thank you for the inquiry about if you can ask not to loan your shares of AYSI. This true you may request to not loan your shares loaned out, I have added this to your account."
itry
Target hit Richagain.
I think I just moved to slack-jawed amazement.
itry
P.S. And to think I used to hate Mondays! lol